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Tag Archives: 2015
Investors Start To Panic As A Global Bond Market Crash Begins
Investors Start To Panic As A Global Bond Market Crash Begins
Is the financial collapse that so many are expecting in the second half of 2015 already starting? Many have believed that we would see bonds crash before the stock market crashes, and that is precisely what is happening right now. Since mid-April, the yield on 10 year German bonds has shot up from 0.05 percent to 0.89 percent. But much of that jump has come this week. Just a couple of days ago, the yield on 10 year German bonds was sitting at just 0.54 percent. And it isn’t just Germany – bond yields are going crazy all over Europe. So far, it is being estimated that global investors have lost more than half a trillion dollars, and there is much more room for these bonds to fall. In the end, the overall losses could be well into the trillionseven before the stock market collapses.
I know that for most average Americans, talk about “bond yields” is rather boring. But it is important to understand these things, because we could very well be looking at the beginning of the next great financial crisis. The following is an excerpt from an article by Wolf Richter in which he details the unprecedented carnage that we have witnessed over the past few days…
On Tuesday, ahead of the ECB’s policy announcement today, German Bunds sagged, and the 10-year yield soared from 0.54% to 0.72%, drawing a squiggly diagonal line across the chart. In just one day, yield increased by one-third!
Makes you wonder to which well-connected hedge funds the ECB had once again leaked its policy statement and the all-important speech by ECB President Mario Draghi that the rest of us got see today.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook 2015 and 2016
EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook 2015 and 2016
The EIA has just released their Short-Term Energy Outlook for January. They have now included their predictions for 2016. Here is what they expect for US C+C. I have made the first projected production for December 2014 though the EIA says they have production data for December. All date is in million barrels per day through December 2016.
The EIA is saying that US C+C will peak at 9.47 mb/d in May 2015, drop 330,000 barrels per day by September 2015 then recover, apparently because the price of oil will recover. Or perhaps they have another reason. They do not have US production surpassing May 2015 until July of 2016.
The EIA only gives C+C outlook numbers for domestic production. However they do project total liquids for all Non-OPEC nations. But first here is what they are predicting for US total liquids:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Inner City Turmoil and Other Crises: My Predictions for 2015
Inner City Turmoil and Other Crises: My Predictions for 2015
If Americans were honest with themselves they would acknowledge that the Republic is no more. We now live in a police state. If we do not recognize and resist this development, freedom and prosperity for all Americans will continue to deteriorate. All liberties in America today are under siege.
It didn’t happen overnight. It took many years of neglect for our liberties to be given away so casually for a promise of security from the politicians. The tragic part is that the more security was promised — physical and economic — the less liberty was protected.
With cradle-to-grave welfare protecting all citizens from any mistakes and a perpetual global war on terrorism, which a majority of Americans were convinced was absolutely necessary for our survival, our security and prosperity has been sacrificed.
It was all based on lies and ignorance. Many came to believe that their best interests were served by giving up a little freedom now and then to gain a better life.
The trap was set. At the beginning of a cycle that systematically undermines liberty with delusions of easy prosperity, the change may actually seem to be beneficial to a few. But to me that’s like excusing embezzlement as a road to leisure and wealth — eventually payment and punishment always come due. One cannot escape the fact that a society’s wealth cannot be sustained or increased without work and productive effort. Yes, some criminal elements can benefit for a while, but reality always sets in.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Money, Gold and Liberty in 2015 and Beyond
Money, Gold and Liberty in 2015 and Beyond
Looking Back at 2014
2014 was quite an eventful year for global markets: Janet Yellen became the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve; we were on the brink of war in Crimea, and Germany won its fourth world cup title. Many countries around the world held elections, the Scotts and the Swiss had referendums and both of them decided to maintain the status quo, whether it was against Scottish independence or the Gold initiative.
I wouldn’t describe this year as a tough one for gold, considering that it is ending the year close to where it left off end-2013. While some may perceive this negatively and against the rationale for holding physical gold, I find it more relevant than ever, like I said last year. The main reason why gold did not move against the tide this year is, in my opinion, because appearances have a stronger influence on the minds of the people than the facts presented by reality.
Image credit: Glenna Goodacre
The global debt situation is much worse than a few years ago and real economic growth is near zero. Income inequality is rising faster than ever before. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanded from about USD 890 billion to more than USD 4.5 trillion since end-2007 and the only outcome so far has been an artificial spike in different asset classes and an expansion of the welfare-warfare state. The fact is that a fiat-money system always results in massive centralization, in terms of the economic landscape, “wealth-accumulation” and an ever-expanding state apparatus. The accumulation of debt is part and parcel of this mechanism. No necessary reforms or structural changes have taken place, which would allow a more positive outlook for 2015.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
11 Predictions Of Economic Disaster In 2015 From Top Experts All Over The Globe
11 Predictions Of Economic Disaster In 2015 From Top Experts All Over The Globe
Will 2015 be a year of financial crashes, economic chaos and the start of the next great worldwide depression? Over the past couple of years, we have all watched as global financial bubbles have gotten larger and larger. Despite predictions that they could burst at any time, they have just continued to expand. But just like we witnessed in 2001 and 2008, all financial bubbles come to an end at some point, and when they do implode the pain can be extreme. Personally, I am entirely convinced that the financial markets are more primed for a financial collapse now than they have been at any other time since the last crisis happened nearly seven years ago. And I am certainly not alone. At this point, the warning cries have become a deafening roar as a whole host of prominent voices have stepped forward to sound the alarm. The following are 11 predictions of economic disaster in 2015 from top experts all over the globe…
#1 Bill Fleckenstein: “They are trying to make the stock market go up and drag the economy along with it. It’s not going to work. There’s going to be a big accident. When people realize that it’s all a charade, the dollar will tank, the stock market will tank, and hopefully bond markets will tank. Gold will rally in that period of time because it’s done what it’s done because people have assumed complete infallibility on the part of the central bankers.”
#2 John Ficenec: “In the US, Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio – or Shiller CAPE – for the S&P 500 is currently at 27.2, some 64pc above the historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher – in 1929, 2000 and 2007.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Fracking in the UK: What to Expect in 2015 | DeSmogBlog
Fracking in the UK: What to Expect in 2015 | DeSmogBlog.
The current UK coalition government has overseen the greatest fossil fuel boomsince the discovery of North Sea oil, but the controversy that surrounds shale has made it an interesting factor in the run-up to this year’s general election. Here’s what to expect.
More Fracking
The government has shown absolutely no evidence that it is willing to slow down its committed march towards the commercial development of shale gas.
For example, the government recently approved amendments to the infrastructure bill which, amidst heavy public resistance, will allow fracking companies to extract shale from right underneath people’s homes.
This is irrespective of a wide range of academic reports listing both health and environmental implications, as well as direct human rights inflictions.
Chancellor George Osborne also pledged a further £35 million in the Autumn Statement towards the development of shale gas, with £5 million in particular dedicated to twisting the public’s arm on the matter.
The American People Are Utterly Clueless About What Is Going To Happen As We Enter 2015
The American People Are Utterly Clueless About What Is Going To Happen As We Enter 2015.
The American people are feeling really good right about now. For example, Gallup’s economic confidence index has hit the highest level that we have seen since the last recession. In addition, nearly half of all Americans believe that 2015 will be a better year than 2014 was, and only about 10 percent believe that it will be a worse year. And a lot of people are generally feeling quite good about the people that have been leading our nation. Accordingto Gallup, once again this year Hillary Clinton is the most admired woman in America and Barack Obama is the most admired man in America. I don’t know what that says about our nation, but it can’t be good. Unfortunately, when things seem to be going well common sense tends to go out the window. A couple days ago, the Guardian ran an article entitled “Goodbye to one of the best years in history“, and a whole lot of people out there are feeling really optimistic these days. But should they be?
Sadly, what we are experiencing right now is so similar to what we witnessed in 2007 and early 2008. The stock market had been on a great run, people were flipping houses like crazy and most people were convinced that the party would never end.
But then it did end – very painfully.
The signs of trouble were there, but most people chose to ignore them.
Sadly, the exact same thing is happening again.
On Monday, the price of oil hit a brand new five year low. As I write this, U.S. oil is sitting at a price of $53.76 a barrel, which is nearly a 50 percent decline from the peak earlier this year.
The Biggest Risks To Canada’s Economy In 2015, And Beyond
The Biggest Risks To Canada’s Economy In 2015, And Beyond.
We welcome 2015 at a rather tumultuous time for the global economy — from falling oil prices to hacker threats against a movie studio, to a crucial election in Greece.
The global economy is at a crossroads that could see it either finally escape the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, or it could sink back into a slowdown. Personal and public debt loads are high, while the recovery in job markets and income levels has been disappointing and income disparities within countries are widening. Many of the biggest threats to Canada’s economy will sound familiar, they’ve been building since the Great Recession, but 2015 also poses a unique set of challenges that could affect Canadians this year.
Resource Insights: Five energy surprises for 2015: The possible and the improbable
Resource Insights: Five energy surprises for 2015: The possible and the improbable.
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don’t know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what’s left in drillers’ immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
How Asset Manager BlackRock Gave Me the Willies About 2015 | Wolf Street
How Asset Manager BlackRock Gave Me the Willies About 2015 | Wolf Street.
BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world and one of the big beneficiaries of the Fed’s policies, and of similar policies by other central banks, is in a bullish mood.
In its 2015 Investment Outlook, BlackRock is gung-ho about the US economy. Dominant among the forces behind that miracle is the Fed’s “ultra-loose monetary policy” that has “inflated US equity and home values.” Monetary policy will likely “remain highly stimulatory.” And “even if the Fed were to hike by a full percentage point, real short-term interest rates would still be negative.” So savers would continue to get annihilated, at least until they entrust their money to BlackRock.
BlackRock is a fan of Abenomics and the Bank of Japan which has taken over where the Fed left off. The BoJ monetizes the entire deficit of the government. Japanese institutions, including the huge Government Investment Pension Fund, have been pressed to sell their JGBs to the BoJ and plow this money into stocks and other assets, expressly to inflate their values. BlackRock is licking its chops.
And it’s looking with fond expectations to the ECB, which has essentially promised, despite German opposition, a big load of QE starting in 2015, on top of the negative deposit rates it is already inflicting on banks and increasingly their depositors.
A Pessimist’s Guide To The World In 2015 | Zero Hedge
A Pessimist’s Guide To The World In 2015 | Zero Hedge.
Skirmishes in the South China Sea lead to full-scale naval confrontation. Israel bombs Iran, setting off an escalation of violence across the Middle East. Nigeria crumbles as oil prices fall and radicals gain strength. Bloomberg News asked foreign policy analysts, military experts, economists and investors to identify the possible worst-case scenarios, based on current global conflicts, that concern them most heading into 2015.
