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G-20 Needs To “Man Up” Or Risk Sparking Market Chaos, Citi Warns

February 26, 2016

G-20 Needs To “Man Up” Or Risk Sparking Market Chaos, Citi Warns Two days ago, the man who now signs your Federal Reserve notes threw cold water on hopes for a so-called “Shanghai Accord.” Over the past month or so, anticipation has built among market participants for some manner of coordinated policy response at this weekend’s G20 summit […]

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A Contagious Crisis Of Confidence In Corporate Credit

February 14, 2016

A Contagious Crisis Of Confidence In Corporate Credit Credit is not innately good or bad. Simplistically, productive Credit is constructive, while non-productive Credit is inevitably problematic. This crucial distinction tends to be masked throughout the boom period. Worse yet, a prolonged boom in “productive” Credit – surely fueled by some type of underlying monetary disorder – can […]

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Negative Interest Rates Already In Fed’s Official Scenario

February 2, 2016

Negative Interest Rates Already In Fed’s Official Scenario Over the past year, and certainly in the aftermath of the BOJ’s both perplexing and stunning announcement (as it revealed the central banks’ level of sheer desperation), we have warned (most recently “Negative Rates In The U.S. Are Next: Here’s Why In One Chart”) that next in […]

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“Pandora’s Box Is Open”: Why Japan May Have Started A ‘Silent Bank Run’

January 30, 2016

“Pandora’s Box Is Open”: Why Japan May Have Started A ‘Silent Bank Run’ As extensively discussed yesterday in the aftermath of the BOJ’s stunning decision to cut rates to negative for the first time in history (a decision which it appears was taken due to Davos peer pressure, a desire to prop up stock markets and to […]

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Fed Vice Chair Explains Why The Fed Is Still Obsessing With Negative Interest Rates

January 3, 2016

Fed Vice Chair Explains Why The Fed Is Still Obsessing With Negative Interest Rates Two months ago, and roughly 6 weeks before the Fed’s first rate hike in 9 years, Janet Yellen warned that if the “outlook worsened, the fed might weight negative rates” adding that “negative rates could help encourage banks to lend.” Moments ago, in […]

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Here Is The Complete Scenario In Which The Fed Hikes Rates, Starts A Recession, And Launches QE4

November 22, 2015

Here Is The Complete Scenario In Which The Fed Hikes Rates, Starts A Recession, And Launches QE Seven years after the Fed unleashed ZIRP and QE to “fix the economy”, it has finally admitted that ZIRP and QE failed to do that (although they certainly succeeded in blowing the biggest asset bubble ever), and for […]

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The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship?

October 31, 2015

The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship? One of the most reliable indicators of an imminent recession through recent history has been the yield curve. Whenever longer dated rates falls below shorter dated ones, a recession is not far off. Some would even say that yield curve inversion, or backwardation, help cause the economic contraction. […]

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