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A Contagious Crisis Of Confidence In Corporate Credit
A Contagious Crisis Of Confidence In Corporate Credit
Credit is not innately good or bad. Simplistically, productive Credit is constructive, while non-productive Credit is inevitably problematic. This crucial distinction tends to be masked throughout the boom period. Worse yet, a prolonged boom in “productive” Credit – surely fueled by some type of underlying monetary disorder – can prove particularly hazardous (to finance and the real economy).
Fundamentally, Credit is unstable. It is self-reinforcing and prone to excess. Credit Bubbles foment destabilizing price distortions, economic maladjustment, wealth redistribution and financial and economic vulnerability. Only through “activist” government intervention and manipulation will protracted Bubbles reach the point of precarious systemic fragility. Government/central bank monetary issuance coupled with market manipulations and liquidity backstops negates the self-adjusting processes that would typically work to restrain Credit and other financial excess (and shorten the Credit cycle).
A multi-decade experiment in unfettered “money” and Credit has encompassed the world. Unique in history, the global financial “system” has operated with essentially no limitations to either the quantity or quality of Credit instruments issued. Over decades this has nurtured unprecedented Credit excess and attendant economic imbalances on a global scale. This historic experiment climaxed with a seven-year period of massive ($12 TN) global central bank “money” creation and market liquidity injections. It is central to my thesis that this experiment has failed and the unwind has commenced.
The U.S. repudiation of the gold standard in 1971 was a critical development. The seventies oil shocks, “stagflation” and the Latin American debt debacle were instrumental. Yet I view the Greenspan Fed’s reaction to the 1987 stock market crash as the defining genesis of today’s fateful global Credit Bubble.
The Fed’s explicit assurances of marketplace liquidity came at a critical juncture for the evolution to market-based finance.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
This Is The NIRP “Doom Loop” That Threatens To Wipeout Banks And The Global Economy
This Is The NIRP “Doom Loop” That Threatens To Wipeout Banks And The Global Economy
Remember the vicious cycle that threatened the entire European banking sector in 2012?
It went something like this: over indebted sovereigns depended on domestic banks to buy their debt, but when yields on that debt spiked, the banks took a hit, inhibiting their ability to fund the sovereign, whose yields would then rise some more, further curtailing banks’ ability to help out, and so on and so forth.
Well don’t look now, but central bankers’ headlong plunge into NIRP-dom has created another “doom loop” whereby negative rates weaken banks whose profits are already crimped by the new regulatory regime, sharply lower revenue from trading, and billions in fines. Weak banks then pull back on lending, thus weakening the economy further and compelling policy makers to take rates even lower in a self-perpetuating death spiral. Meanwhile, bank stocks plunge raising questions about the entire sector’s viability and that, in turn, raises the specter of yet another financial market meltdown.
Below, find the diagram that illustrates this dynamic followed by a bit of color from WSJ:
In a way, the move below zero was a gamble. The theory went like this: Banks would take a hit, but negative rates would get the economy moving. A stronger economy would, in turn, help the banks recover.It appears that wager isn’t working.
The consequences are deeply worrying. Weak banks may now drag the economy down further. And with the economy weak and deflation—a damaging spiral of falling wages and prices—looming, central banks that have gone negative will be loath to turn around and raise rates.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rising Systemic Risk for all Markets
We are on the precipice of what can only be described as rising systemic risk for all markets. The Fed is now hinting that banks should prepare for NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES and this insanity of following the crowd is undermining the entire world economy. The increasingly unstable footing that we find ourselves standing upon is reflected in widening credit spreads demonstrating that CONFIDENCE is indeed collapsing. The EU Commission will no longer classify government bonds in bank balance sheets as “risk”. Banks would also have government bonds on par with “equity” yet government bonds have proven to be risky and are inferior to what would in some financial institutions result in an increased capital requirement. Turning to Goldman Sachs, we see the so called world’s greatest trader closed out its long-USD trade against a basket of Euro and Japanese yen with a potential loss of around 5% which is being bantered about on the street showing they too got this all wrong. This early 2016 destabilization is stopping out short gold positions but not replacing them with any buying conviction while the Euro trade of long Italian 5 year against short German 5 year has also turned into a blood-bath as the Euro finally rallied begrudgingly to reach our first resistance target in the mid-113 area.
Global economic growth has been anemic at best in the States but it is clearing turning down since 2015.75. This new world order of NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES is so insane and focused solely on trying to stimulate borrowing, it is undermining pensions and the elderly creating an economic storm of the century on the horizon, which is far worse that the Great Depression of the 1930s. Even the Japanese 10 Year bond has gone NEGATIVE demonstrating the total collapse in CONFIDENCE.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Behold Unintended Consequences: Japan Cancels 10Y Auction For First Time Ever Due To Sub-Zero Rates
Behold Unintended Consequences: Japan Cancels 10Y Auction For First Time Ever Due To Sub-Zero Rates
- PLANNED MARCH SALE OF 10-YEAR JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS THROUGH BANKS TO BE CANCELED AMID EXPECTED BELOW-ZERO YIELDS – NIKKEI
- JAPAN’S MINISTRY OF FINANCE IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE WEDNESDAY THE FIRST-EVER DECISION TO CALL OFF SALES OF 10-YEAR JGBS- NIKKEI
Here is the full Nikkei report on this absolute stunner of a development:
The planned March sale of 10-year Japanese government bonds through banks to retail investors, municipalities and others will be canceled amid expected below-zero yields following the Bank of Japan’s recent move to adopt negative interest rates.The Ministry of Finance is expected to announce Wednesday the first-ever decision to call off sales of 10-year JGBs.
The JGBs in question are sold through Japan Post Bank and regional banks in 50,000 yen ($415) units. The holder can cash out this new type of bond ahead of maturity. With the ministry already having suspended sales of two- and five-year instruments, all sales will end. But variable-rate 10-year JGBs for retail investors will still be offered.
Winning bids at the ministry’s auction of 10-year JGBs on Tuesday translated to a record-low average yield of 0.078%. As of Monday, nearly 70% of JGBs on the market already had negative yields, according to the Japan Securities Dealers Association.
Corporations and municipalities have started delaying their own issuances. Daiwa Securities Group has dropped plans to set conditions later this week for the issuance of seven- and 10-year straight bonds this month. The brokerage decided to take a fresh look at JGB yields and investor demand and said it has not decided when to proceed.
The Nagoya Expressway Public Corp., which had planned to float bonds later this week, has postponed the setting of conditions to next week.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Negative Interest Rates Already In Fed’s Official Scenario
Negative Interest Rates Already In Fed’s Official Scenario
Over the past year, and certainly in the aftermath of the BOJ’s both perplexing and stunning announcement (as it revealed the central banks’ level of sheer desperation), we have warned (most recently “Negative Rates In The U.S. Are Next: Here’s Why In One Chart”) that next in line for negative rates is the Fed itself, whether Janet Yellen wants it or not. Today, courtesy of Wolf Richter, we find that this is precisely what is already in the small print of the Fed’s future stress test scenarios, and specifically the “severely adverse scenario” where we read that:
The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession, accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities.
As a result of the severe decline in real activity and subdued inflation, short-term Treasury rates fall to negative ½ percent by mid-2016 and remain at that level through the end of the scenario.
And so the strawman has been laid. The only missing is the admission of the several global recession, although with global GDP plunging over 5% in USD terms, we wonder just what else those who make the official determination are waiting for.
Finally, we disagree with the Fed that QE4 is not on the table: it most certainly will be once stock markets plunge by 50% as the “severely adverse scenario” envisions, and once NIRP fails to boost economic activity, as it has failed previously everywhere else it has been tried, the Fed will promtply proceed with what has worked before, if only to make the true situation that much worse.
Until then, we sit back and wait.
Here is Wolf Richter with Negative Interest Rates Already in Fed’s Official Scenario
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“Pandora’s Box Is Open”: Why Japan May Have Started A ‘Silent Bank Run’
“Pandora’s Box Is Open”: Why Japan May Have Started A ‘Silent Bank Run’
As Goldman’s Naohiko Baba previously explained, NIRP in Japan will not actually boost the economy: “we do have concerns about the policy transmission channel. Policy Board Member Koji Ishida, who voted against the new measures, said that “a further decline in JGB yields would not have significantly positive effects on economy activity.” We concur with this sentiment, particularly for capex. The key determinants of capex in Japan are the expected growth rate and uncertainty about the future as seen by corporate management according to our analysis, while the impact of real long-term rates has weakened markedly in recent years.”
What the BOJ’s NIRP will do, is result in a one-time spike in risk assets, something global stock and bond markets have already experienced, and a brief decline in the Yen, one which traders can’t wait to fade as Citi FX’s Brent Donnelly explained yesterday.
NIRP will also have at most two other “positive” consequences, which according to Deutsche Bank include 1) reinforcing financial institutions’ decisions to grant new loans and invest in securities (if only in theory bnecause as explained further below in practice this may very well backfire); and 2) widening interest rate differentials to weaken JPY exchange rates, which in turn support companies’ JPY-based sales and profit, for whom a half of consolidated sales are from overseas.
That covers the positive. The NIRP negatives are far more troubling. The first one we already noted yesterday, when Goldman speculated that launching NIRP could mean that further QE is all tapped out:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates
The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates
As we noted earlier, in a paradoxical U-turn, one which caught everyone by surprise as a result of Kuroda’s own promise just one week ago not to engage in NIRP…
… and two months after the ECB’s December 3 disappointing announcement led to a historic surge in the EUR, today countless macro hedge funds have been left reeling with huge losses once again, as many had recently turned bullish on the Yen…
… only to be eviscerated by the BOJ’s negative rates announcement.
So what happened? Reuters has an amusing take, one which we doubt many macro HFs will find quite entertaining:
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda used classic shock tactics on Friday to push through his latest unconventional monetary policy of negative rates: deny, then strike.
The paradox, of course, is that by “striking”, Kuroda slammed precisely those who were meant to benefit the most from the BOJ’s action: financial institutions. To be sure, it is not just hedge funds who will be left reeling but Japanese banks themselves, because as a result of negative rates, their NIM will go horizontal and lead to even more pronounced losses, something European banks – such as Deutsche Bank – have discovered the hard way over the past year and a half.
There are other problems with the BOJ’s seemingly chaotic, if not panicked, decision: as Reuters adds, “a razor-thin 5-4 vote underscores the difficulty Kuroda had in winning enough board backing for his shock tactic, and illustrates the doubts among board members about the governor’s line that by sticking to a 2 percent inflation goal the BOJ can make people believe prices will rise.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Incredible Shrinking Benefits Of Massive Japanese Money Printing
The Incredible Shrinking Benefits Of Massive Japanese Money Printing
Excerpted from JPMorgan CIO Michael Cembalest 2016 Outlook,
Something is wrong with this picture. In the US and Japan, corporate profits sank during the global financial crisis. In the US, the profit recovery was accompanied by a recovery in household income. In Japan, however, corporate profits and household income moved in opposite directions, as dynamics that helped profits recover did not help consumers.
How can we explain the outcome in Japan? The benefits of a weak Yen are mostly concentrated among large corporations, given translation gains on offshore non-Yen income relative to Yen-denominated costs. For smaller companies and households, a weaker Yen simply resulted in imported inflation. While consumer spending has stabilized after a decline caused by the imposition of a Value Added Tax in 2014, there are few signs of a rebound to pre-VAT levels. Japanese GDP growth has been volatile and averaged 1.5% in 2015; we’re expecting a similar outcome in 2016.
In October 2015, the Bank of Japan did not take further steps which markets were anticipating (e.g., an increase in equity ETF purchases from ¥3tn per year, an increase in REIT purchases from ¥90bn per year or an increase in government bond purchases from ¥80tn per year). Perhaps concerns about the negative domestic impacts from a weaker Yen are affecting BoJ policy.
Our contacts in Japan believe that the BoJ is no longer being pre-emptive, and will wait until November 2016 to act.
The Japanese experiment.
There are few precedents for the kind of experiment Japan is conducting. At the current pace of BoJ purchases, private sector banks might actually run out of JGBs by the end of 2016, at which point the BoJ would have to buy them directly from the non-bank private sector; I think it’s fair to say that no one really knows what would happen then.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Venezuela Default Countdown Begins: After Selling Billions In Gold, Caracas Raids $467 Million In IMF Reserves
Venezuela Default Countdown Begins: After Selling Billions In Gold, Caracas Raids $467 Million In IMF Reserves
In late October, when describing Venezuela’s desperate steps to keep itself afloat for a few more months, we reported that in order to fund $3.5 billion bond payments in early November, Maduro’s government had engaged in something that is the very definition of insanity: selling the country’s sovereign (and pateiently repatriated by his deceased predecessor) gold to repay creditors.
Specifically, in the past several months, Caracas has quietly parted with 19% of its gold holdings: “Central bank financial statements posted this week on its website show monetary gold totaled 91.41 billion bolivars in January and 74.14 billion bolivars in May. At the strongest official exchange rate of 6.3 bolivars per U.S. dollar, which the bank uses for its financial statements, that decline would be equivalent to $2.74 billion.”
But while ridiculous, Venezuela’s decision to liquidate some of its gold is perhaps understandable under the circumstances: Venezulea relies on crude oil for 95% of its export revenue, and with prices refusing to rebound, the only question is when do all those CDS which price in a Venezuela default finally get paid.
What is even more understandable is what Venezuela should have done in the first place before dumping a fifth of its gold, but got to do eventually, namely raiding all of the IMF capital held under its name in a special SDR reserve account.
Recall that this is precisely what Greece did in July when everyone was speculating when it would default. Now its Venezuela’s turn.
The details: Reuters reports that Venezuela withdrew some $467 million from an IMF holding account in October, according to information posted on the fund’s web-site, as the OPEC nation seeks to improve the liquidity of its reserves amid low oil prices and a severe recession.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Asian Currency Crisis Continues As China Holds, Malaysia Folds, & Japan Heads For Quintuple Dip Recession
Asian Currency Crisis Continues As China Holds, Malaysia Folds, & Japan Heads For Quintuple Dip Recession
Asia got off to an inauspicious start this evening with Japan printing a disappointing 1.6% drop in GDP – heading for its fifth recession in 6 years… so much for Abenomics, but, of course, Amari spewed forth some standard propaganda that he expects Japan to recover moderately (and Japanese stocks popped modestly assuming moar QQE). Then Malaysia continued its collapse with the Ringgit down another 1% hitting fresh 17-year lows and stocks dropping further, as the Asian Currency crisis continues. Heading into the China open, offshore Yuan signaled further devaluation but the CNY Fix printed very modestly stronger at 6.3969; and following last week’s best gains in 2 months, Chinese stocks are plunging at the open after Chinese farmers extend their streak of margin debt increases. Finally, WTI Crude drifted back to a $41 handle in early futures trading.
Asian Contagion…
Japan heads for Quintuple Dip recession…
The Asian currency crisis continues (led by Malaysia)
- *MALAYSIAN RINGGIT DROPS 0.9% TO 4.1155 PER DOLLAR
- *MALAYSIA’S KEY STOCK INDEX OPENS DOWN 0.4% AT 1,590.81
But broad-based USD strength against Asian FX continues…
Then China opened..
Great news – Chinese farmers and grandmas are releveraging!!
- *SHANGHAI MARGIN DEBT HAS LONGEST STREAK OF RISE IN TWO MONTHS
Seriously!
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
This Is What Global Currency War Looks Like: A Complete History Of Recent FX Interventions
This Is What Global Currency War Looks Like: A Complete History Of Recent FX Interventions
After the dramatic collapse in the SNB’s defense of the Swiss Franc peg to the Euro, there was a period of relative FX peace in which few if any central banks engaged in outright currency intervention (aside from the countless rate cuts so far in 2015 in response to the soaring strength of the USD, which has risen dramatically over the past year for all the wrong reasons). Then China last night reminded us what happens when in a centrally-planned world one or more markets take too great advantage of relative FX differentials, in this case Japan, whose Yen plunged from USDJPY 80 to 125, and the Euro, which tumbled from EURUSD 1.40 to just above parity.
Now, it’s China’s turn.
But as we pointed out before, FX interventions never take place in a vacuum, and especially during periods of rising dollar strength, when the entire FX world, and especially exporters and mercantilists, go berserk.
Furthermore as Stone McCarthy notes, “this is the sort of “international development” that the Fed will need to keep an eye on and assess as conditions align for the start of policy normalization.” The reason is simple: what China just did could make a rate hike impossible as multinational US corporations will be slammed with a double whammy of soaring dollar and sliding CNY, making US exports that much tougher. And as we won’t tire of repeating, the Fed can not print trade.
And just to help remind readers of what happens when the entire world engages in wholesale currency war, here is a complete list of all the recent FX interventions, courtesy of Stone McCarthy.
Summary of Recent FX Interventions:
The last period of any significant Fed interventions in foreign exchange markets was during 1994-1995 when the dollar reached all time lows against what were then the benchmark currencies of the Japanese yen and German deutsche mark, and the period of the Mexican Peso Crisis. After that, it was acting to defend the value of the yen and new-minted euro.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Rise Of The Yuan Continues: LME To Accept Renminbi As Collateral
The Rise Of The Yuan Continues: LME To Accept Renminbi As Collateral
As far-fetched as the notion may be to those who are wedded – by choice, by misguided beliefs, or by virtue of being completely beholden to the perpetuation of the status quo – to idea that the dollar will forever retain its status as the world’s reserve currency, the yuan is set to play a critical role in global finance, investment, and trade going forward.
We’ve long argued that the BRICS bank, the AIIB, and to an even greater extent, the Silk Road Fund, will help to usher in a new era of yuan hegemony in international investment and trade. A number of recent developments support this, including Beijing’s push for the renminbi to play an outsized role in loans doled out through the AIIB, the denomination of loans from the BRICS bank in yuan, and China’s aggressive investment in Pakistan and Brazil via the Silk Road initiative (here and here).
As for financial markets, China recently confirmed the impending launch of a yuan denominated gold fix which conveniently dovetailed with the LBMA’s acceptance of the first Chinese banks to participate in the twice-daily auction that determines London gold prices.
Now, in the latest sign of yuan proliferation and penetration, the renminbi will be accepted as collateral by the LME along with the dollar, the euro, the pound, and the yen.
Here’s WSJ with more:
China’s domestic stock market may be in turmoil but the country’s currency, known as the yuan or renminbi, is making a seemingly relentless push deeper into the global financial system.The latest step: the London Metal Exchange, the world’s largest venue for trading metals where $15 trillion of metals was traded last year, is set to accept yuan as collateral for banks and brokers that trade on its platform.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Abenomics End Game: Thousands Protest In Downtown Tokyo, Demand Abe’s Resignation As PM Disapproval Soars
Abenomics End Game: Thousands Protest In Downtown Tokyo, Demand Abe’s Resignation As PM Disapproval Soars
Considering that Shinzo Abe’s first reign as prime minister of Japan lasted precisely one year from September 26, 2006 until September 26 of the following year, when he voluntarily resigned due to diarrhea, the fact that he has managed to stay in power for nearly 3 years since ascending to power for the second time in December 2012 and unleashing the currency-crushing and market-surging policy of unprecedented debt and deficit monetization known as “Abenomics” is quite impressive.
It also confirms that as long as the stock market keeps going higher politicians have nothing to fear even if it means a total collapse in living standards for the rest of the population.
Yet even with the Nikkei pushing on 18 years highs, it appears that Abe may have reached his rigged market rating benefit cap, because even as the Nikkei was soaring, Abe’s approval rating was plunging.
As we reported a month ago, “Abe Cabinet’s approval rating plunged to 39%, matching a record low, as more than half of voters oppose the new US-sanctioned military/security legislation being debated in the Diet…. As his popularity has waned, Abe has become more and more desperate to keep support and has, for the first time in 70- years, lower the minimum voting age from 21 to 18.”
The overall decline in support was apparently attributable to the fact that 53 percent of the respondents oppose the security bills being deliberated in the Lower House. Only 29 percent support the legislation, the survey showed.Three constitutional law scholars said in the Lower House Commission on the Constitution on June 4 that the security legislation is unconstitutional. The Abe Cabinet countered their stance by releasing an opinion paper that said the bills do not violate the Constitution.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Deflation Is Winning – Beware!
Deflation Is Winning – Beware!
Expect the ride to get even rougher
Deflation is back on the front burner and it’s going to destroy all of the careful central planning and related market manipulation of the past 6 years.
Clear signs from the periphery indicate that a destructive deflationary pulse has been unleashed. Tanking commodity prices are confirming that idea.
Whole groups of enterprises involved in mining and energy are about to be destroyed. And the commodity-heavy nations of Canada, Australia and Brazil are in for a very rough ride.
Whether the central banks can keep all of their carefully-propped equity and bond markets elevated throughout the next part of the cycle remains to be seen. We know they will try very hard. They certainly are increasingly willing to use any all tools at their disposal to keep the status quo going for as long as possible.
Whether it’s the People’s Bank of China stepping in to the market to buy 10% stakes in major Chinese corporations in a matter of weeks, the Bank Of Japan becoming the majority owner of key ETFs in the Japanese markets, or the Swiss National Bank purchasing $100 billion of various global equities, we see the same desperation. Equity prices are being propped, jammed and extended higher and higher without regard to risk or repurcussions.
It makes us wonder: Why haven’t humans ever thought to print their way to prosperity before?
Well, that’s the problem. They have.
And it has always ended up disastrously. History shows that the closest thing that economics has to an inviolable law is: There’s no such thing as a free lunch.
Sadly, all of our decision-makers are trying their hardest to ignore that truth.
First, The Fall….
So how will all of this progress from here?
We’ve always liked the Ka-Poom! theory by Erik Janzen which we explained previously like this:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
