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Tag Archives: uncertainty
Do Not Waste One More Second
Do Not Waste One More Second Do not waste one more second of your time on this earth, for the insects are all dying, and the ice caps are vanishing, and the oceans are filling with plastic. This could all be gone very soon, so don’t waste it. Don’t take any part of the crackling […]
Uncertainty is the Mother of Volatility
Uncertainty is the Mother of Volatility QUESTION: Well you called this year the political year from hell. You got that one right again. Between trying to figure out the politics in the US, we have Britain in turmoil and Italy trying to figure out if they should stay or go. Hungary becoming more defiant and […]
Axiom of Uncertainty
Axiom of Uncertainty It’s simple. Given that there might well be an absolute nature/structure of the universe and our perhaps fundamentally limited cognitive position/abilities within it can we be certain that we can be sure about the true nature of anything? Can there be fundamental forces, matter, and material relationships of which we will never know? While unanswerable in principle, the mere possibility of […]
Oil Prices Tear Higher On Middle East Tensions
Oil Prices Tear Higher On Middle East Tensions Oil prices rose on Tuesday ahead of the API data report, fueled by Middle East tensions and dwindling crude output in Venezuela. (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) – U.S crude oil exports averaged 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in […]
Worst Case Scenario: What is It?
Worst Case Scenario: What is It? This article provides insight as to the way the Fed and all central banks think. A worst-case scenario is a concept in risk management wherein the planner, in planning for potential disasters, considers the most severe possible outcome that can reasonably be projected to occur in a given situation. […]
“What Happens When The Market Can No Longer Pretend”: Charting Today’s Minsky Moments Dynamics
“What Happens When The Market Can No Longer Pretend”: Charting Today’s Minsky Moments Dynamics Back in July, Deutsche Bank’s derivative strategist Aleksandar Kocic believed he had found the moment the market broke, which he defined as a terminal dislocation between market and economic policy uncertainty: as he wrote 4 months ago, it was some time […]
Systemic Uncertainty, Meet Fragility
Systemic Uncertainty, Meet Fragility That’s the problem with fragility: everything looks fine on the surface until a crisis applies pressure. Then the whole rickety contraption collapses in a heap.. Life is inherently uncertain, but systems that were once considered certainties have increasingly become uncertain. Social Security is one example; recent polls reflect widespread doubts among Millennials […]
Uncertainty and the Humility of Forecasting an Unknowable Future
Uncertainty and the Humility of Forecasting an Unknowable Future While we’re being reassured that all these grandiose promises are resting on trends that are as reliably predictable as the tides, the next easily predictable crisis will very likely reveal the trends are speculative bubbles that will predictably burst in a devastating reversion. Certainty and uncertainty […]
What Markets Are Telling Us
What Markets Are Telling Us Last week US stock markets tumbled yet again, leaving the Dow Jones index down almost 1500 points for the year. In fact, most major world markets are in negative territory this year. There are many Wall Street cheerleaders who are trying to say that this is just a technical correction, […]
Honey, I Broke the Markets
Honey, I Broke the Markets “Donald Trump looks like the villain in a movie where the hero is a dog.” – The internet. Which four letter word still has an amazing capacity to cause offence, anxiety and aggravation ? In the world of investment, that word would have to be R-I-S-K. Do we even have […]
Imagine If Exxon Had Told the Truth on Climate Change
Imagine If Exxon Had Told the Truth on Climate Change Like all proper scandals, the #Exxonknew revelations have begun to spin off new dramas and lines of inquiry. Presidential candidates have begun to call for Department of Justice investigations, and company spokesmen have begun to dig themselves deeper into the inevitable holes as they try to excuse the inexcusable. […]
Gold & War
Gold & War QUESTION: Does war boost gold prices? MM ANSWER: No. The only impact that war will have on gold is confined to either prolonged inflation or the uncertainty of the victor — the hedge against government survival. War by itself is a non-event. Gold will rise ONLY when there is uncertainty because the currency of the government will […]
Progress in an Uncertain World
Progress in an Uncertain World Strong Towns is often accused of offering doom-and-gloom diagnoses of problems but being light on solutions. “You don’t tell us what we can actually DO to fix our insolvent cities,” goes the response. “You’re just so negative all the time.” This is not true, but I also don’t think it’s […]
FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART FOUR
FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART FOUR In Part One of this article I explained the model of generational theory as conveyed by Strauss and Howe in The Fourth Turning. In Part Two I provided an overwhelming avalanche of evidence this Crisis has only yet begun, with debt, civic decay and global disorder propelling the […]
