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What The Oil Price Collapse Says About The Economy

What The Oil Price Collapse Says About The Economy In Tuesday’s technical update, I discussed the breakdown in the major markets both internationally as well as domestically. Of note, was the massive bear market in China which is currently down nearly 50 percent from its peak. (Click to enlarge) What is important about China, besides […]

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Just in Time Stimulus: Fed Proposes Looser Rules for Large U.S. Banks

Just in Time Stimulus: Fed Proposes Looser Rules for Large U.S. Banks The Fed’s proposal marks one of the most significant rollbacks of bank regulations since Trump took office. The Wall Street Journal reports Fed Proposes Looser Rules for Large U.S. Banks The Federal Reserve announced one of the most significant rollbacks of bank rules […]

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Peter Schiff Explains “What Happens Next” In 47 Words

Peter Schiff Explains “What Happens Next” In 47 Words Outspoken critic of The Fed and one of the few that can see through the endless barrage of bullshit to how this really ends, has laid out in a tweet “what happens next”… Likely sequence of events: 1. Bear market; 2. Recession; 3. Deficits explode; 4. […]

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The Global Distortions of Doom Part 1: Hyper-Indebted Zombie Corporations

The Global Distortions of Doom Part 1: Hyper-Indebted Zombie Corporations The defaults and currency crises in the periphery will then move into the core. It’s funny how unintended consequences so rarely turn out to be good. The intended consequences of central banks’ unprecedented tsunami of stimulus (quantitative easing, super-low interest rates and easy credit / […]

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The Everything Bubble: When Will It Finally Crash?

The Everything Bubble: When Will It Finally Crash? Much like the laws of physics, there are certain laws of economics that remain constant no matter how much manipulation exists in the markets. Expansion inevitably leads to contraction, and that which goes up must eventually come down. Central banks understand this reality very well; they have […]

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Once the Bubbles Pop, We’re Broke

Once the Bubbles Pop, We’re Broke I hate to break it to you, but the everything bubble isn’t permanent. OK, I get it–the Bull Market in stocks is permanent. Bulls will be chortling in 2030 that skeptics have been wrong for 22 years–an entire generation. Bonds will also be higher, thanks to negative interest rates, and housing will […]

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Ben Bernanke: The US Economy Is Going To Go Off The Cliff In 2020

Ben Bernanke: The US Economy Is Going To Go Off The Cliff In 2020 It looks like Ben Bernanke is a Bridgewater client. Recall that earlier this week we reported that in the May 31 “Daily Observations” letter to select clients, authored by Bridgewater co-CIO Greg Jensen, the world’s biggest hedge had an ominous, if […]

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Albert Edwards on Trump’s Legacy:15% Deficits then a Deflationary Bust

Albert Edwards on Trump’s Legacy:15% Deficits then a Deflationary Bust Albert Edwards at Society General does not have kind words for Trump’s stimulus package. In his latest Email, Albert Edwards at Society General fires a shot at Trump’s tax cut. Edwards says the “fiscal expansion is probably the most foolhardy escapade in modern economic policy, […]

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Caution: Slowdown

Caution: Slowdown Many of you know I keep posting charts keeping taps on the macro picture in the Macro Corner. It’s actually an interesting exercise watching what they do versus what they say. Public narratives versus reality on the ground. I know there’s a lot of talk of global synchronized expansion. I call synchronized bullshit. […]

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Is There Any Way Out of the ECB’s Trap?

Is There Any Way Out of the ECB’s Trap? The ECB faces the Devil’s Alternative that Frederick Forsyth mentioned in one of his books. All options are potentially riskly. Mario Draghi knows that maintaining the so-called stimuli involves more risks than benefits, but also knows that eliminating them could make the eurozone deck of cards collapse. Despite […]

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Surplus or Stimulus

Surplus or Stimulus René Magritte Le Cri du Coeur 1960 Austerity is over, proclaimed the IMF this week. And no doubt attributed that to the ‘successful’ period of ‘five years of belt tightening’ a.k.a. ‘gradual fiscal consolidation’ it has, along with its econo-religious ilk, imposed on many of the world’s people. Only, it’s not true […]

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The Long Run Economics of Debt Based Stimulus

The Long Run Economics of Debt Based Stimulus  Onward vs. Upward Something both unwanted and unexpected has tormented western economies in the 21st century.  Gross domestic product (GDP) has moderated onward while government debt has spiked upward.  Orthodox economists continue to be flummoxed by what has transpired. What happened to the miracle? The Keynesian wet […]

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Why the Coming Wave of Defaults Will Be Devastating

Why the Coming Wave of Defaults Will Be Devastating Without the stimulus of ever-rising credit, the global economy craters in a self-reinforcing cycle of defaults, deleveraging and collapsing debt-based consumption. In an economy based on borrowing, i.e. credit a.k.a. debt, loan defaults and deleveraging (reducing leverage and debt loads) matter. Consider this chart of total credit […]

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China’s Furious Stimulus-and-Debt Binge Backfires

China’s Furious Stimulus-and-Debt Binge Backfires Fabled transition to a service economy? Forget it. The export and manufacturing powerhouse of the world, the locomotive – along with the US – of the global economy, and an indicator of the global economy itself, disappointed economists once again. The operative word in the media today is “unexpectedly.” China has […]

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Danish Central Bank Warns Of “Risk Illusion”, Fears “Fire Sale” Plunge In Asset Prices

Danish Central Bank Warns Of “Risk Illusion”, Fears “Fire Sale” Plunge In Asset Prices Having slashed rates below zero and unleashed various rounds of asset-purchases, the Riksbank (Denmark’s central bank) recently warned the rest of the world that “we have reached the limits of monetary policy.” Now, however, Denmark’s Systemic Risk Council has raised the financial system warning […]

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