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It’s Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington
It’s Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington
On Tuesday evening, we asked what would happen if emerging markets joined China in dumping US Treasurys. For months we’ve documented the PBoC’s liquidation of its vast stack of US paper. Back in July for instance, we noted that China had dumped a record $143 billion in US Treasurys in three months via Belgium,leaving Goldman speechless for once.
We followed all of this up this week by noting that thanks to the new FX regime (which, in theory anyway, should have required less intervention), China has likely sold somewhere on the order of $100 billion in US Treasurys in the past two weeks alone in open FX ops to steady the yuan. Put simply, as part of China’s devaluation and subsequent attempts to contain said devaluation, China has been purging an epic amount of Treasurys.
But even as the cat was out of the bag for Zero Hedge readers and even as, to mix colorful escape metaphors, the genie has been out of the bottle since mid-August for China which, thanks to a steadfast refusal to just float the yuan and be done with it, will have to continue selling USTs by the hundreds of billions, the world at large was slow to wake up to what China’s FX interventions actually implied until Wednesday when two things happened: i) Bloomberg, citing fixed income desks in New York, noted “substantial selling pressure” in long-term USTs emanating from somebody in the “Far East”, and ii) Bill Gross asked, in a tweet, if China was selling Treasurys.
Sure enough, on Thursday we got confirmation of what we’ve been detailing exhaustively for months. Here’s Bloomberg:
China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar
Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar
Last week, in the global currency war’s latest escalation, Kazakhstan instituted a free float for the tenge. The currency immediately plunged by some 25%.
The rationale behind the move was clear enough. The plunge in crude prices along with the relative weakness of the Russian ruble had severely strained Kazakhstan, which is central Asia’s largest crude exporter. As a quick look at a chart of the tenge’s effective exchange rate makes clear, the pressure had been mounting for quite a while and when China devalued the yuan earlier this month, the outlook for trade competitiveness worsened.
What might not be as clear (on the surface anyway) is how recent events in developing economy FX markets following the devaluation of the yuan stem from a seismic shift we began discussing late last year – namely, the death of the petrodollar system which has served to underwrite decades of dollar dominance and was, until recently, a fixture of the post-war global economic order.
In short, the world seems to have underestimated how structurally important collapsing crude prices are to global finance. For years, producers funnelled their dollar proceeds into USD assets providing a perpetual source of liquidity, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous (especially if one held US-denominated assets and printed US currency) loop. That all came to an abrupt, if quiet end last year when a confluence of economic (e.g. shale production) and geopolitical (e.g. squeeze the Russians) factors led the Saudis to, as we put it, Plaxico’d themselves and the US.
The ensuing plunge in crude meant that suddenly, the flow of petrodollars was set to dry up and FX reserves across commodity producing countries were poised to come under increased pressure. For the first time in decades, exported petrodollar capital turned negative.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Malaysia Meltdown: Asian Currency Crisis 2.0 Sends Ringgit, Stocks, Bonds Crashing
Malaysia Meltdown: Asian Currency Crisis 2.0 Sends Ringgit, Stocks, Bonds Crashing
When China went the “nuclear” (to quote SocGen) devaluation route earlier this week in a last ditch effort to rescue its export-driven economy from the perils of an increasingly painful dollar peg, everyone knew things were about to get a whole lot worse for an EM currency basket that was already reeling from plunging commodity prices, slumping Chinese demand, and the threat of an imminent Fed hike.
Sure enough, EM currencies from Brazil to South Korea plunged, and monetary authorities – unsure whether to play down the move or cry foul – scrambled to respond.
With some Asian currencies already falling to levels last seen 17 years ago, some analysts fear that an Asian Currency Crisis 2.0 may be just around the corner.
That rather dire prediction may have been validated on Friday when Malaysia’s ringgit registered its largest one-day loss in almost two decades.
As FT notes, “sentiment towards Malaysia has been damped by a range of factors including sharp falls in global energy prices since the end of June. Malaysia is a major exporter of both oil and natural gas, with crude accounting for almost a third of government revenue.” The central bank meanwhile, “has opted to step back from intervening in the market in response to the falling renminbi, unleashing pent-up downward pressure on the ringgit.” That, apparently, marks a notable change in policy. “The most immediate challenge is the limited scope of Malaysia’s central bank to step in,” WSJ says, adding that “for weeks, it tried to stem the currency’s slide, digging into its foreign-exchange reserves to prop up the ringgit and warning banks from aggressively trading against its currency.”
Surveying the damage, here’s the one-day:
And the one week:
And the one month:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Global Markets Turmoil After China Extends Currency War To 2nd Day – Devalues Yuan To 4 Year Lows
Global Markets Turmoil After China Extends Currency War To 2nd Day – Devalues Yuan To 4 Year Lows
Chinese stocks opened lower, extending yesterday’s losses, after The PBOC weakened its Yuan FIX dramatically for the 2nd consecutive day(from 6.1162 Monday to 6.2298 last night to 6.3306). Offshore Yuan fell another 9 handles against the USD after China closed but was hovering at 6.40 as the market opens (now at 11 hnadles weaker at 6.51). Bear in mind the utter devastation in Chinese credit markets that data showed occurred in July, it remains ironic that for the 3rd days in a row, Chinese margin debt balances grew. Before the real fun and games started, Chinese officials once again exclaimed that their data is real (denying any mismatches between GDP Deflator and CPI) as China CDS spiked to 2 year highs. US equity futures are tumbling, bonds bid, and gold bouncing off the initial jerk lower.
PBOC makes some comments (like last night’s)…
- *PBOC SAYS NO ECONOMIC BASIS FOR YUAN’S CONSTANT DEVALUATION
- *PBOC SAYS YUAN WON’T CONTINUOUSLY DEVALUE
- *PBOC SAYS MOVE OF YUAN REFERENCE PRICE IS NORMAL
- *CHINA YUAN MECHANISM CHANGE MAKES FIXING RATES MORE REASONABLE
And then there is this (from Xinhua):
China’s state-owned news 4-year lowsagency Xinhua said: “China is not waging a currency war; merely fixing a discrepancy.”“The central parity rate revision was designed to make the yuan more market-driven and in line with market expectations,” it said in a comment piece published on its web site.
“The lower exchange rate was just a byproduct, not the goal.”
The “one-off” adjustment has now become two… some context for the size of this move…
- *MNI: CHINA PBOC WED YUAN FIXING LOWEST SINCE OCT 11, 2012
Onshore Yuan breaks above 6.41 – trades to 4 years lows against the USD…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Rise Of The Yuan Continues: LME To Accept Renminbi As Collateral
The Rise Of The Yuan Continues: LME To Accept Renminbi As Collateral
As far-fetched as the notion may be to those who are wedded – by choice, by misguided beliefs, or by virtue of being completely beholden to the perpetuation of the status quo – to idea that the dollar will forever retain its status as the world’s reserve currency, the yuan is set to play a critical role in global finance, investment, and trade going forward.
We’ve long argued that the BRICS bank, the AIIB, and to an even greater extent, the Silk Road Fund, will help to usher in a new era of yuan hegemony in international investment and trade. A number of recent developments support this, including Beijing’s push for the renminbi to play an outsized role in loans doled out through the AIIB, the denomination of loans from the BRICS bank in yuan, and China’s aggressive investment in Pakistan and Brazil via the Silk Road initiative (here and here).
As for financial markets, China recently confirmed the impending launch of a yuan denominated gold fix which conveniently dovetailed with the LBMA’s acceptance of the first Chinese banks to participate in the twice-daily auction that determines London gold prices.
Now, in the latest sign of yuan proliferation and penetration, the renminbi will be accepted as collateral by the LME along with the dollar, the euro, the pound, and the yen.
Here’s WSJ with more:
China’s domestic stock market may be in turmoil but the country’s currency, known as the yuan or renminbi, is making a seemingly relentless push deeper into the global financial system.The latest step: the London Metal Exchange, the world’s largest venue for trading metals where $15 trillion of metals was traded last year, is set to accept yuan as collateral for banks and brokers that trade on its platform.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
It’s Not Just Margin Debt: Presenting The Complete Chinese Stock Market Ponzi Schematic
It’s Not Just Margin Debt: Presenting The Complete Chinese Stock Market Ponzi Schematic
Late last month in “The Biggest Threat To Chinese Stocks: Shadow Lending Crackdown“, we suggested that the pressure on Chinese equities – which at that point had only begun to build – was at least partially attributable to an unwind in the country’s CNY1 trillion backdoor margin lending edifice.
As we explained, brokerages were only allowed to facilitate margin trading for investors whose account balances totaled at least CNY500K, and even then, traders could only lever up 2X. Brokerages naturally looked for ways to skirt the rules, leading to the development of multiple off-the-books vehicles and creating a situation wherein the official headline figure for margin lending (around CNY2.2 trillion at the time) woefully underrepresented the actual amount of leverage behind China’s world-beating equity rally.
Put simply, precisely measuring the amount of shadow financing that helped China’s legions of newly-minted retail day traders make leveraged bets on the SHCOMP and Shenzhen is virtually impossible, as is determining how much of that leverage has been unwound and how much remains or has been restored thanks to Beijing’s explicit efforts to reignite the margin madness by pumping PBoC cash into CSF.
For our part, we’ve suggested that regardless of what the actual figure is, the important point is that the unwind has probably just begun. In short: it seems unlikely that all of the leverage has been squeezed out of China’s exceedingly intricate shadow financing system.
As it turns out, BofAML agrees and is out with a valiant attempt to not only identify each shadow lending channel, but to quantify just how much leverage is built into the Chinese market.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
PetroYuan Proliferation: Russia, China To Settle “Holy Grail” Pipeline Sales In Renminbi
PetroYuan Proliferation: Russia, China To Settle “Holy Grail” Pipeline Sales In Renminbi
Last week, in “The PetroYuan Is Born: Gazprom Now Settling All Crude Sales To China In Renminbi,” we discussed the intersection of two critically important themes which have far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences. The first is the death of petrodollar mercantilism, the USD recycling system that has helped to buttress decades of dollar dominance and the second is the idea of yuan hegemony, a new, post-Bretton Woods world economic order characterized by the ascendancy of China-led supranational institutions.
These themes came together recently when it became apparent that Gazprom has begun settling all crude sales to China in yuan. Here’s a summary of the prevailing dynamics: Western economic sanctions on Russia have pushed domestic oil producers to settle crude exports to China in yuan just as Russian oil is rising as a percentage of total Chinese crude imports. Meanwhile, the collapse in crude prices led to the first net outflow of petrodollars from financial markets in 18 years, and if Goldman’s projections prove correct, the net supply of petrodollars could fall by nearly $900 billion over the next three years. All of this comes as China is making a concerted push to settle loans from its newly-created infrastructure funds in renminbi.
Now, it appears Russia and China will de-dollarize natural gas settlements as well.
First, a bit of history is in order.
Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow, where Gazprom Chief Executive Alexei Miller and China National Petroleum Corp Vice President Wang Dongjin signed a gas export deal which paves the way for 30 bcm/y to China via a new “Western Route.”
(the Altai line)
As a reminder, the two countries ratified a “Holy Grail” gas deal last May for the delivery of up to 38 bcm/y over 30 years via an “Eastern Route.” Also known as the “Power of Siberia” pipeline, the Eastern route was billed as the largest fuel network in the world with a total contract value of around $400 billion.
(mapping the Western and Eastern routes)
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The PetroYuan Is Born: Gazprom Now Settling All Crude Sales To China In Renminbi
The PetroYuan Is Born: Gazprom Now Settling All Crude Sales To China In Renminbi
Two topics we’ve deemed critically important to a thorough understanding of both global finance and the shifting geopolitical landscape are the death of the petrodollar and the idea of yuan hegemony.
Last November, in “How The Petrodollar Quietly Died And No One Noticed,” we said the following about the slow motion demise of the system that has served to perpetuate decades of dollar dominance:
Two years ago, in hushed tones at first, then ever louder, the financial world began discussing that which shall never be discussed in polite company – the end of the system that according to many has framed and facilitated the US Dollar’s reserve currency status: the Petrodollar, or the world in which oil export countries would recycle the dollars they received in exchange for their oil exports, by purchasing more USD-denominated assets, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous (especially if one held US-denominated assets and printed US currency) loop.
The main thrust for this shift away from the USD, if primarily in the non-mainstream media, was that with Russia and China, as well as the rest of the BRIC nations, increasingly seeking to distance themselves from the US-led, “developed world” status quo spearheaded by the IMF, global trade would increasingly take place through bilateral arrangements which bypass the (Petro)dollar entirely. And sure enough, this has certainly been taking place, as first Russia and China, together with Iran, and ever more developing nations, have transacted among each other, bypassing the USD entirely, instead engaging in bilateral trade arrangements.
Falling crude prices served to accelerate the petrodollar’s demise and in 2014, OPEC nationsdrained liquidity from financial markets for the first time in nearly two decades:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Canada-China Ties Deepen With Renminbi Trading Hub
Canada-China Ties Deepen With Renminbi Trading Hub
China’s growing global financial influence has skeptics, requires reforms to keep pace
Canada and China officially opened the first North American renminbi trading hub in Toronto on Monday, March 23, amid other initiatives that are poised to give the Asian power greater financial influence internationally. These developments give skeptics ongoing concerns about China’s ultimate objectives and are not limited to those regarding its control of yuan trading, capital market reforms, and lack of transparency.
The hub was the result of several months of work since Prime Minister Stephen Harper brokered a deal for Canada to be the first such trading center in North America. Through the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the designated clearing bank, making and receiving payments in renminbi, also known as the yuan, is now easier for Canadian businesses.
For certain, this is good news for Canadian businesses that can now lower their costs in renminbi transactions, principally instead of using the U.S. dollar as a go-between. It increases the global competitiveness of Canadian firms that deal with Chinese firms. It also bodes well for the Canadian banks that can roll out more products, such as renminbi deposit accounts, and earn fees.
“A rapid build-up of expertise in renminbi liquidity could have significant benefits for our world-class financial industry,” said Canada’s finance minister Joe Oliver on Monday. “This is an opportunity for Canada’s financial sector, but also for China’s.”
Canadian exports to China have more than quadrupled since 2003, totalling $78 billion in 2014, and foreign direct investment between the two nations has gone up more than seven-fold between 2005 and 2013, to a total of $21.5 billion. China, the world’s second-largest economy, is Canada’s second-largest trading partner after the U.S.
Yes, it’s possible for a gold-backed renminbi to dethrone the dollar
Yes, it’s possible for a gold-backed renminbi to dethrone the dollar.
“[W]e want to use our reserves more constructively by investing in development projects around the world rather than just reflexively buying US Treasuries. In any case, we usually lose money on Treasuries, so we need to find ways to improve our return on investment.”
– Unnamed senior Chinese official, cited in an FT article, ‘Turning away from the dollar’, 10th December 2014.
“Mutually assured destruction” was a doctrine that rose to prominence during the Cold War, when the US and the USSR faced each other with nuclear arsenals so populous that they ensured that any nuclear exchange between the two great military powers would quickly lead to mutual overkill in the most literal sense.
Notwithstanding the newly dismal relations between the US and Russia, “mutually assured destruction” now best describes the uneasy stand-off between an increasingly indebted US government and an increasingly monetarily frustrated China, with several trillion dollars’ worth of foreign exchange reserves looking, it would now appear, for a more productive home than US Treasury bonds of questionable inherent value.
Until now, the Chinese have had little choice where to park their trillions, because only markets like the US Treasury market (and to a certain extent, gold) have been deep and liquid enough to accommodate their reserves.
China Awards $8.2 Billion RQFII Quota to Canada in Harper Visit – Bloomberg
China Awards $8.2 Billion RQFII Quota to Canada in Harper Visit – Bloomberg.
China gave a 50 billion yuan ($8.2 billion) quota to Canada under the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program as Prime Minister Stephen Harper visited Beijing and signed deals to boost economic ties.
The two sides signed deals worth almost C$2.5 billion ($2.2 billion), agreements that will create thousands of jobs in Canada, Harper said. Separately, China’s State Council also approved a three-year C$30 billion currency swap agreement with Canada, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement on its website today.
The decision follows China’s award of a 30 billion yuan quota to Qatar as the world’s second-largest economy expands the RQFII program beyond Hong Kong in efforts to promote global use of the yuan. China started the program in 2011, allowing investors holding the currency overseas to buy domestic bonds, stocks and money-market instruments.
“I’m sure that will give a strong support for our business ties and mutual investment,” China’s Premier Li Keqiang said as he met Harper.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The dollar decline continues: China begins direct convertibility to Asia’s #1 financial center
The dollar decline continues: China begins direct convertibility to Asia’s #1 financial center.
This morning some of the biggest financial news of the year made huge waves all over Asia.
Yet in the Western press, this hugely important information has barely even been mentioned. (CNBC.com, for example, has yet to report on this story as of 11:45am Eastern…)
So what’s the news?
The Chinese government announced that the renminbi will become directly convertible with the Singapore dollar… effective tomorrow morning.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
