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Merger Mania and the Kings of Debt
Merger Mania and the Kings of Debt Another Early Warning Siren Goes Off Our friend Jonathan Tepper of research house Variant Perception (check out their blog to see some of their excellent work) recently pointed out to us that the volume of mergers and acquisitions has increased rather noticeably lately. Some color on this was […]
Reflections on Late-Stage Inflation
Reflections on Late-Stage Inflation Without a doubt, we are in a period of late-stage inflation. But how long can it last? A few days ago I noted that “inflation expectations” were the same or nearly the same for every period from seven years through thirty. Actually, the thirty-year expectation was slightly less than the 10-year […]
US Money Supply Growth Jumps in March , Bank Credit Growth Stalls
US Money Supply Growth Jumps in March , Bank Credit Growth Stalls A Movie We Have Seen Before – Repatriation Effect? There was a sizable increase in the year-on-year growth rate of the true US money supply TMS-2 between February and March. Note that you would not notice this when looking at the official broad […]
Effects of Monetary Pumping on the Real World
Effects of Monetary Pumping on the Real World As long time readers know, we are looking at the economy through the lens of Austrian capital and monetary theory (see here for a backgrounder on capital theory and the production structure). In a nutshell: Monetary pumping falsifies interest rate signals by pushing gross market rates below […]
From Bling to Plonk – An Update on the Debt Mountain
From Bling to Plonk – An Update on the Debt Mountain Serenely Grows the Debtberg We mentioned in a recent post that we would soon return to the topic of credit spreads and exotic structured products. One reason for doing so are the many surprises investors faced in the 2008 crisis. Readers may e.g. remember […]
Why I Own Gold and Gold Mining Companies – An Interview With Jayant Bandari
Why I Own Gold and Gold Mining Companies – An Interview With Jayant Bandari Opportunities in the Junior Mining Sector Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable has recently interviewed Jayant Bandari, the publisher of Capitalism and Morality and a frequent contributor to this site. The topics discussed include currencies, bitcoin, gold and above all junior […]
Gold and Gold Stocks – Patterns, Cycles and Insider Activity, Part 1
Gold and Gold Stocks – Patterns, Cycles and Insider Activity, Part 1 Repeating Patterns and Positioning A noteworthy confluence of patterns in gold and gold stocks is in evidence this year. At the close of trading on December 26, the HUI Index has given a (tentative) buy signal by completing a unique chart pattern, which […]
How the Asset Bubble Could End – Part 2
How the Asset Bubble Could End – Part 2 Contradictory Signals Special antennae that help traders catch upcoming opportunities. Available from the same outfit that sells the soup-cooling spoon (Acme Inc). There is just one more positioning indicator we want to mention: after surging by around $126 billion since March of 2016, NYSE margin debt […]
Business Cycles and Inflation, Part II
Business Cycles and Inflation, Part II Early Warning Signals in a Fragile System [ed note: here is Part 1; if you have missed it, best go there and start reading from the beginning] We recently received the following charts via email with a query whether they should worry stock market investors. They show two short […]
Can Switzerland Save the World?
Can Switzerland Save the World? Switzerland: Far from Flawless, but still a Unique Country – An Interview with Claudio Grass Our friend Claudio Grass has discussed Switzerland in these pages before, and on one of these occasions we added some background information on country’s truly unique political system (see “The People Against the Establishment” for […]
Rate Hike Cycles, Gold, and the “Rule of Total Morons”
Rate Hike Cycles, Gold, and the “Rule of Total Morons” In response to Janet Yellen’s everything is OK speech following today’s balance sheet reduction notice by the FOMC committee, I received an interesting set of comments from Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog regarding rate hike cycles, gold, and stock market peaks. “Rule of Total […]
21st Century Shoe-Shine Boys
21st Century Shoe-Shine Boys Anecdotal Flags are Waved “If a shoeshine boy can predict where this market is going to go, then it’s no place for a man with a lot of money to lose.” – Joseph Kennedy It is actually a true story as far as we know – Joseph Kennedy, by all accounts […]
Moving Closer to the Precipice
Moving Closer to the Precipice Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Falter The decline in the growth rate of the broad US money supply measure TMS-2 that started last November continues, but the momentum of the decline has slowed last month (TMS = “true money supply”). The data were recently updated to the end […]
The Triumph of Hope over Experience
The Triumph of Hope over Experience The Guessers Convocation On Wednesday the socialist central planning agency that has bedeviled the market economy for more than a century held one of its regular meetings. Thereafter it informed us about its reading of the bird entrails via statement (one could call this a verbose form of groping […]
Cracks in Ponzi-Finance Land
Cracks in Ponzi-Finance Land Retail Debt Debacles The retail sector has replaced the oil sector in a sense, and not in a good way. It is the sector that is most likely to see a large surge in bankruptcies this year. Junk bonds issued by retailers are performing dismally, and within the group the bonds […]
