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The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead
The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead Media outlets tend to make it sound as if all our economic problems are temporary problems, related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In fact, world crude oil production has been falling behind needed levels since 2019. This problem, by itself, encourages the world economy […]
No one will win in the Russia-Ukraine conflict
No one will win in the Russia-Ukraine conflict Most people have a preconceived notion that there will be a clear winner and loser from any war. In their view, the world economy will go on, much as before, after the war is “won” by one side or the other. In my view, we are basically […]
Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer
Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer We have been told that intermittent electricity from wind and solar, perhaps along with hydroelectricity, can be the basis of a green economy. Things are increasingly not working out as planned, however. Natural gas or coal used for balancing the intermittent output of renewables is increasingly high-priced […]
2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recessionIn my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:
2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recessionIn my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained: With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs. With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices. […]
Is it possible that the world is approaching end times?
Is it possible that the world is approaching end times? I frequently write that the world economy is, in physics terms, a dissipative structure that is powered by energy. It can grow for a time, but eventually it reaches limits of many kinds. Ultimately, it can be expected to stop growing and collapse. It seems […]
Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead
Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead An analysis of what is going terribly wrong in the world economy The world economy requires stability. People living in the world economy need stability, as well. They need food every day and a place to live. Children need a home situation that they can […]
Could we be hitting natural gas limits already?
Could we be hitting natural gas limits already? Many countries have assumed that natural gas imports will be available for balancing electricity produced by intermittent wind and solar, whenever they are needed. The high natural gas import prices recently being encountered in Europe, and especially in the UK, appear to be an indication of an underlying problem. […]
To Be Sustainable, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Revenue
To Be Sustainable, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Revenue What allows any type of energy to be sustainable? I would argue that one of the requirements for sustainability is adequate production of taxable revenue. Company managements depend upon taxable revenue for many purposes, including funding new investments and paying dividends to shareholders. Governments depend upon […]
How Energy Transition Models Go Wrong
How Energy Transition Models Go Wrong I have written many posts relating to the fact that we live in a finite world. At some point, our ability to extract resources becomes constrained. At the same time, population keeps increasing. The usual outcome when population is too high for resources is “overshoot and collapse.” But this […]
Don’t expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19
Don’t expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19 Most people seem to think that the world economy is going through a temporary disruption, caused by a novel coronavirus. As soon as COVID-19 goes away, they expect the economy will be back to normal. I think that this assessment is overly […]
How the World’s Energy Problem Has Been Hidden
How the World’s Energy Problem Has Been Hidden We live in a world where words are very carefully chosen. Companies hire public relations firms to give just the right “spin” to what they are saying. Politicians make statements which suggest that everything is going well. Newspapers would like their advertisers to be happy; they certainly […]
Where Energy Modeling Goes Wrong
Where Energy Modeling Goes Wrong There are a huge number of people doing energy modeling. In my opinion, nearly all of them are going astray in their modeling because they don’t understand how the economy really operates. The modeling that comes closest to being correct is that which underlies the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by […]
2020: The Year Things Started Going Badly Wrong
2020: The Year Things Started Going Badly Wrong How today’s energy problem is different from peak oil Many people believe that the economy will start going badly wrong when we “run out of oil.” The problem we have today is indeed an energy problem, but it is a different energy problem. Let me explain it with an […]
Humans Left Sustainability Behind as Hunter-Gatherers
Humans Left Sustainability Behind as Hunter-Gatherers Many people believe that humans can have a sustainable future by using solar panels and wind turbines. Unfortunately, the only truly sustainable course, in terms of moving in cycles with nature, is interacting with the environment in a manner similar to the approach used by chimpanzees and baboons. Even […]
Fossil Fuel Production Is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way
Fossil Fuel Production Is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way Strangely enough, the limit we seem to be reaching with respect to fossil fuel extraction comes from low prices. At low prices, the extraction of oil, coal, and natural gas becomes unprofitable. Producers go bankrupt, or they voluntarily cut back production in an attempt to force […]
