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Tag Archives: money supply
The Bogus Case Against Gold
The Bogus Case Against Gold Gold is in the early stages of its third great bull run that will take it to record heights. The first two great bull markets were 1971-1980 (gold up 2,200%) and 1999-2011 (gold up 760%). After peaking in 2011, gold fell sharply from that peak to below $1,100 per ounce […]
Can Constant Money Growth Rule Prevent Boom-Bust Cycles?
CAN CONSTANT MONEY GROWTH RULE PREVENT BOOM-BUST CYCLES? According to the Nobel Laureate in Economics, Milton Friedman, the key cause of the business cycles is the fluctuations in the growth rate of money supply. Friedman held that what is required for the elimination of these cycles is for central bank policy makers to aim at […]
On Inflation (& How It’s Not What Happens Next)
On Inflation (& How It’s Not What Happens Next) Everyone is convinced the dollar is going to inflate because more dollars are entering the system. But are they really? That is the question that sparked a succinct Twitter thread by Travis K (@ColoradoTravis) explaining why inflation is not what happens next (emphasis ours): Let’s take a […]
The Fed is Determined to Prove the QTM Right
The Fed is Determined to Prove the QTM Right Milton Friedman famously said, “Inflation was always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” But Friedman didn’t live through the QE years here in the U.S. and blatantly ignored the twenty plus years of Japanese deflation despite QE and insane levels of money printing during the latter years […]
Money Supply Growth in May Again Surges to an All-Time High
MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH IN MAY AGAIN SURGES TO AN ALL-TIME HIGH Money supply growth surged to another all-time high in May, following April’s all-time high that came in the wake of unprecedented quantitative easing, central bank asset purchases, and various stimulus packages. The growth rate has never been higher, with the 1970s the only period […]
Can An Increase In the Demand For Money Neutralize the Effect of a Corresponding Increase in Money Supply?
CAN AN INCREASE IN THE DEMAND FOR MONEY NEUTRALIZE THE EFFECT OF A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN MONEY SUPPLY? According to popular thinking, not every increase in the supply of money will have an effect on the production of goods. For instance, if an increase in the supply is matched by a corresponding increase in the […]
Central Banks Trapped by Their Theories
Central Banks Trapped by Their Theories QUESTION: Hi Martin, I can understand how JP and EU backed themselves into a corner with negative rates. Happy to give them the benefit of the doubt when this all started 3-4 years ago even though it was obvious this was not going to end well.However, what I don’t understand […]
Changes in Government Deposits and Money Supply
CHANGES IN GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS AND MONEY SUPPLY The US debt ceiling suspension, signed in February 2018, expires at the beginning of March this year. Some commentators are of the view that the US Treasury must carry out special measures if it expects a delay in raising the debt ceiling in March. The Treasury would have […]
The Pseudo-Psychology Behind Monetary Policy
The Pseudo-Psychology Behind Monetary Policy In his various writings, the champion of the monetarist school, Milton Friedman, argued that there is a variable time lag between changes in money supply and its effect on real output and prices. Friedman holds that in the short run changes in money supply will be followed by changes in […]
The Difference Between Money Supply & Liquidity
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MONEY SUPPLY & LIQUIDITY The US debt ceiling suspension, signed on February 2018, expires in March this year. According to some experts, the US Treasury will have to carry out special measures because of possible delays in raising this ceiling. Treasury would need to draw down its deposits with the Fed and […]
Quantitative Brainwashing
Quantitative Brainwashing We’re all familiar with the term, “quantitative easing.” It’s described as meaning, “A monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market in order to lower interest rates and increase the money supply.” Well, that sounds reasonable… even beneficial. But, unfortunately, that’s not really the whole […]
Collapse In Global M1 Signals A Worldwide Recession Has Arrived
Collapse In Global M1 Signals A Worldwide Recession Has Arrived By now everyone has seen some iteration of this chart showing that the annual change in central bank liquidity is now negative. Another way to visualize just the Fed’s balance sheet contraction is courtesy of this chart from Morgan Stanley which shows specifically which assets […]
A Global Dearth of Liquidity
A Global Dearth of Liquidity Worldwide Liquidity Drought – Money Supply Growth Slows Everywhere This is a brief update on money supply growth trends in the most important currency areas outside the US (namely the euro area, Japan and China) as announced in in our recent update on US money supply growth (see “Federal Punch […]