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Yesterday, the BLS released a little-read jobs report that shows reported jobs in 2023 may be wildly overstated. In turn, that means GDP is likely overstated as well.

Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data and and Monthly Job Data both from the BLS, chart by Mish

BED Chart Notes

Data is from the BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report and the BLS monthly jobs reports (CES).
BED data is less timely but far more accurate than the BLS monthly jobs reports/
For 2023 Q3, the BED reports shows gross job gains of 7.559 million and gross job losses of 7.751 million for a net loss of 192,000 jobs.
The BLS monthly jobs reports show a gain of 640,000 jobs.

BED Job Gains and Losses by Quarter

Summary of Major Differences

Note that BED data is based on 9.1 million establishments while the monthly jobs reports are only based on 670,000 establishments.

The monthly reports are timely but inaccurate. And the BLS annual benchmark revisions do not also revise the monthly numbers. This makes year-over-year comparisons inaccurate as well.

I created the lead chart by netting BED data and comparing the BED net jobs to net quarterly jobs from the CES data.

BED vs CES

2023 Q2 BED: +332,000
2023 Q3 BED: -192,000
2023 Q2 CES: +821,000
2023 Q3 BED: +640,000

CES Overstatement

2023 Q2 CES Overstatement: 489,000 Jobs
2023 Q3 CES Overstatement: 832,000 Jobs
Q2+Q3 Overstatement: 1.321 Million Jobs

Thus, the BLS says that the BLS monthly job reports for 2023 Q2 and Q3 are overstated by a total of 1.321 million jobs.

Jobs Up 303,000 Full Time Employment Down 6,000 in March

In March, the economy continued to add a high percentage of government and social assistance jobs. Part time employment rose by 691,000 as full time employment fell by 6,000.

Nonfarm payrolls and employment levels from the BLS, chart by Mish.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Israeli Missiles Hit Iran, the Price of Oil Jumps 3 Percent

April 21, 2024

Israeli Missiles Hit Iran, the Price of Oil Jumps 3 Percent

In a game of tit for tat, Israel strikes back at Iran for Iran’s missile launch against Israel. Iran’s attack on Israel was in response for Israel illegally striking an Iranian embassy in Syria.

Israeli Missiles Hit Site in Iran

The NPR reports Israel launches missile strikes into Iran in response to Tehran’s attack Sunday

Reuters reports Israeli Missiles Hit Site in Iran.

Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, ABC News reported late on Thursday, citing a U.S. official, while Iranian state media reported an explosion in the center of the country, days after Iran launched a retaliatory drone strike on Israel.

Iran’s Fars news agency said an explosion was heard at an airport in the central city of Isfahan but the cause was not immediately known. Iran suspended flights over the cities of Isfahan, Shiraz and Tehran, state media reported.

Several Iranian nuclear sites are located in Isfahan province, including Natanz, centerpiece of Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Some Emirates and Flydubai flights that were flying over Iran early on Friday made sudden sharp turns away from the airspace, according to flight paths shown on tracking website Flightradar24.

Israeli Missile Hits Iran, U.S. Officials Confirm

CBS reports Israeli Missile Hits Iran, U.S. Officials Confirm

Two U.S. officials confirm to CBS News that an Israeli missile has hit Iran. The strike follows last weekend’s retaliatory drone and missile attack against Israel, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had vowed to respond to.

Officials were tightlipped about the location or extent of the Israeli strike. When reached by CBS News, the Israeli Defense Forces had no comment on the attack.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

AI, Cryptocurrency Will Double Data Center Energy Consumption by 2026

April 16, 2024

AI, Cryptocurrency Will Double Data Center Energy Consumption by 2026

According to the IEA, electricity consumption from data centres, artificial intelligence (AI) and the cryptocurrency sector could double by 2026. Factor in the global push to EVs.

Please consider the International Energy Agency IEA Electricity Analysis Report 2024-2026.

IEA Notable Points

Global electricity demand rose moderately in 2023 but is set to grow faster through 2026
Global electricity demand is expected to rise at a faster rate over the next three years, growing by an average of 3.4% annually through 2026.
Electricity consumption from data centres, artificial intelligence (AI) and the cryptocurrency sector could double by 2026.
About 85% of additional electricity demand through 2026 is set to come from outside advanced economies
China provides the largest share of global electricity demand growth in terms of volume, but India posts the fastest growth rate through 2026 among major economies.
EU electricity consumption is not expected to return to 2021 levels until 2026 at the earliest. Electricity prices for energy-intensive industries in the European Union in 2023 were almost double those in the United States and China.
Despite energy prices falling from their previous record highs, EU electricity demand further declined in 2023. Lower industrial electricity demand was the most important factor, as in the previous year.
Renewables are set to provide more than one-third of total electricity generation globally by early 2025, overtaking coal. The share of renewables in electricity generation is forecast to rise from 30% in 2023 to 37% in 2026, with the growth largely supported by the expansion of ever cheaper solar PV.
By 2025, global nuclear generation is forecast to exceed its previous record set in 2021.
Global CO2 emissions from electricity generation are expected to fall by more than 2% in 2024 after increasing by 1% in 2023.

…click. on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The CPI Rose Sharply in March Led by Shelter and Gasoline

April 11, 2024

The CPI Rose Sharply in March Led by Shelter and Gasoline

The CPI rose 0.4 percent in March. Rent is up another 0.4 percent in March with gasoline up 1.7 percent. Together, the pair was about half of the total rise.

Yet Another Groundhog Day for Rent

I repeat my core key theme for over two years now. People keep telling me rents are falling, I keep saying they aren’t.

Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped another 0.4 percent in March. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 31 consecutive months!

The “rents are falling” (or soon will) projections have been based on the price of new leases and cherry picked markets. But existing leases, much more important, keep rising.

Only 8 to 9 percent of renters move each year. It’s been a huge mistake thinking new leases and finished construction would drive rent prices.

The overall CPI and core CPI Joined the party this month, all rising 0.4 percent.

Let’s tune into the BLS Report for the more details.

CPI Month-Over-Month Details

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis,
The index for shelter, rent, and Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) all increased 0.4 percent.
The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the month. Gasoline rose 1.7 percent.
Shelter and energy contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items.
The food index rose 0.1 percent with food at home unchanged but food away from home index up 0.3 percent.
The all items less food and energy, labeled the core CPI, rose 0.4 percent for the third month.
The price of new and used vehicles declined in March.

CPI Year-Over-Year

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Expect a Financial Crisis in Europe With France at the Epicenter

March 27, 2024

Expect a Financial Crisis in Europe With France at the Epicenter

The EU never enforced its Growth and Stability Pact or Maastricht Treaty rules. The crisis is coming to a head with France and Italy in the spotlight. The first casualty will be Green policy.

Image composite by Mish from the European Commission Compliance Tracker

Compliance Rules

Deficit rule: a country is compliant if (i) the budget balance of general government is equal or larger than -3% of GDP or, (ii) in case the -3% of GDP threshold is breached, the deviation remains small (max 0.5% of GDP) and limited to one year.
Debt rule: a country is compliant if the general government debt-to-GDP ratio is below 60% of GDP or if the excess above 60% of GDP has been declining by 1/20 on average over the past three years.
Structural balance rule: a country is compliant if (i) the structural budget balance of general government is at or above the medium-term objective (MTO) or, (ii) in case the MTO has not been reached yet, the annual improvement of the structural balance is equal or higher than 0.5% of GDP, or the remaining distance to the MTO is smaller than 0.5% of GDP.
Expenditure rule: a country is complaint if the annual rate of growth of primary government expenditure, net of discretionary revenue measures and one-offs, is at or below the 10-year average of the nominal rate of potential output growth minus the convergence margin necessary to ensure an adjustment of the structural budget deficit in line with the structural balance rule.

Deficit Disaster Zones

France and Italy are major disasters right now on the budget deficit rule. France has a budget deficit of 7 percent and Italy 5 percent.

France needs to reduce its deficit by a whopping 4 percent of GDP!

Neither Italy nor Greece should have been allowed in the EMU (European Monetary Union – Eurozone) in the first place.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Expect Another Surge in Food Prices Fueled by Dynamic Pricing

March 12, 2024

Expect Another Surge in Food Prices Fueled by Dynamic Pricing

Restaurants are moving towards dynamic menu prices. Expect big surcharges for peak times. Don’t expect off peak prices to drop much. Labor costs are rising too.

CPI food indexes prices, data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Surge Pricing Is Coming to You

Restaurants are experimenting with surge pricing to deal with peak hours and staffing demand. They like it. You probably won’t.

The Wall Street Journal reports Surge Pricing Is Coming to More Menus Near You

Restaurants like San Diego-based Cali BBQ are experimenting with a form of the dynamic pricing long used by airlines, hotels and ride-hailing services. Technology providers are pitching services that enable restaurants to change prices weekly or monthly, increasing or slashing the cost of a taco or sandwich between a few quarters to several dollars, depending on demand and sales patterns.

Dynamic pricing—charging higher rates at peak times and dropping them at slower ones—has become commonplace in industries such as e-commerce, and mobile apps have made it easier for companies to study consumers’ buying and browsing and quickly adapt. Rising costs in recent years have led more retailers to implement it.

Restaurants are experimenting with the technology as the industry looks for ways to boost sales and increase profits. Many restaurants increased menu prices as labor, food and other costs have soared since 2021.

Wendy’s drew public scrutiny after the burger chain said in a mid-February earnings call that it was looking to test dynamic pricing. The chain said it would invest around $20 million in its U.S. restaurants to install digital menu boards by 2025 that could suggest items to customers and present different offerings depending on the time of day.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Scientists Try Risky Air and Water Experiments Hoping to Stop Climate Change

February 15, 2024

Scientists Try Risky Air and Water Experiments Hoping to Stop Climate Change

Scientists desperate to stop or reverse climate change are dumping chemicals in the ocean and spraying saltwater in the air. What can go wrong? I discuss the short and long term.

The Wall Street Journal reports Scientists Resort to Once-Unthinkable Solutions to Cool the Planet

Dumping chemicals in the ocean? Spraying saltwater into clouds? Injecting reflective particles into the sky? Scientists are resorting to once unthinkable techniques to cool the planet because global efforts to check greenhouse gas emissions are failing.

These geoengineering approaches were once considered taboo by scientists and regulators who feared that tinkering with the environment could have unintended consequences, but now researchers are receiving taxpayer funds and private investments to get out of the lab and test these methods outdoors.

Tweaking the Climate

Experiments Underway

Marine Cloud Brightening: Researchers aboard a ship off the northeastern coast of Australia near the Whitsunday Islands are spraying a briny mixture through high-pressure nozzles into the air in an attempt to brighten low-altitude clouds that form over the ocean. Scientists hope bigger, brighter clouds will reflect sunlight away from the Earth, shade the ocean surface and cool the waters around the Great Barrier Reef, where warming ocean temperatures have contributed to massive coral die-offs. The research project, known as marine cloud brightening, is led by Southern Cross University as part of the $64.55 million, or 100 million Australian dollars, Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program.
Stardust Solutions: In Israel, a startup called Stardust Solutions has begun testing a system to disperse a cloud of tiny reflective particles about 60,000 feet in altitude, reflecting sunlight away from Earth to cool the atmosphere in a concept known as solar radiation management, or SRM.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The True Costs of Net Zero Are Becoming Impossible to Hide

February 7, 2024

The True Costs of Net Zero Are Becoming Impossible to Hide

Our net zero lesson of the day is from the U.K. but it applies universally. It’s increasingly difficult for Biden and the EU to hide the true costs of net zero mandates.

Britain Boiler Tax Scandal

In the latest green fiasco, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak created a quota system that would require manufacturers to sell more heat pumps to households.

Instead of meekly complying with the regulation as happens with Biden administration EPA announcements, manufacturers let consumers know they would have to pay up whether they installed the heat pumps or not.

Manufacturers correctly dubbed the scheme a “boiler tax” and consumer outrage killed the regulation.

Britain Dumps Another Net-Zero Gimmick

The Wall Street Journal reports Britain Dumps Another Net-Zero Gimmick

Most English households use natural gas to fuel the cabinet-sized boilers that provide central heating and hot water, and forcing them to adopt electric heat pumps (ultimately powered by renewable energy) is part of the government’s net-zero agenda.

An earlier proposal to ban gas-boiler sales after 2035 proved politically toxic as households balked at the cost of replacing their reliable natural-gas boilers with more expensive, untested heat pumps. So politicians resorted to subterfuge, imposing a sales quota on manufacturers. Starting in April, heat pumps would have to replace 4% of annual boiler sales or companies would pay a £3,000 fine for each “excess” natural-gas boiler they sold.

Worcester Bosch, Britain’s leading manufacturer, warned last year that the proposed quota would add up to £300 ($376) to the cost of natural-gas boilers, which retail for £1,000 and up.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

A Reader Asks “Does an Increase in Money Supply Cause Inflation?”

September 2, 2023

A Reader Asks “Does an Increase in Money Supply Cause Inflation?”

This seemingly simple question, is not so simple. What is the money supply? How does one measure inflation.

Other Deposit Liabilities vs M2, monthly average via St. Louis Fed

ODL vs M2 Chart Notes

Other Deposit Liabilities (ODL see description below), is a monthly average.
M2 is a monthly measure through March.

A Better Definition of Money

The main difference between ODL and M2 is that ODL does not include currency or retail money market funds.

Currency is accepted at an increasingly fewer number of business establishments and simply cannot be used for very large sized transactions. Retail money market funds never became an important medium of exchange. Both are becoming a far less used medium of exchange.

ODL has the additional advantage that it is the main source of funding for bank loans and investments, making ODL both a monetary and credit aggregate. Friedman would not be surprised that the need to change the best definition of what constitutes money would change over the years.

The above three paragraphs from Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management.

Whether or not one uses M2 or ODL, money supply has generally been decreasing. Why the Fed cannot release M2 more timely is a mystery. It’s July 15, but the latest M2 is for May. One might wonder “What the H is the Fed hiding?”

Definition of Inflation

Some Austrian economists would say increases in money supply do not “cause” inflation, it is the definition of inflation.

If you hold that view, then deflation is the opposite and we are in deflation now.

Some mean the CPI when they refer to inflation. Others, notably the Fed, think the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the best measure of inflation.

The huge problem with both the CPI and PCE is that it does not include asset prices, especially housing.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Lesson of the Day: If You Weaponize the Dollar and Confiscate Assets, Expect Retaliation

July 21, 2023

Lesson of the Day: If You Weaponize the Dollar and Confiscate Assets, Expect Retaliation

Russia seized the local assets of Carlsberg beer and yogurt maker Danone. It now threatens Austria’s Raiffeisen bank.

Russia Seizes Western Yogurt and Beer

As backdrop to the Raiffeisen bank story, consider the Bloomberg report, Russia Seize s We stern Yogurt and Beer.

President Vladimir Putin signed a decree in April allowing for “temporary” state control over the assets of companies or individuals from “unfriendly” states — which include the US and its allies.

Sunday’s move is the second time the Kremlin has used the decree to seize assets. Previously, Russia took control of utilities owned by Finland’s Fortum Oyj and Germany’s Uniper SE.

Russia and Ukraine accounted for about 13% of Carlsberg’s total sales and about 9% of operating profit in 2021. The company employs about 8,400 people in Russia and had previously separated the operations there from the rest of the group.

Carlsberg is assessing the legal and operational consequences. Fortum last week started a process of arbitration over the April seizure. But with Russia no longer concerned about appearing fair to western investors, it’s difficult to see how much recourse these or any other multinationals will have.

Procter & Gamble, Colgate-Palmolive and Philip Morris International have also remained. Coca-Cola HBC has the largest revenue exposure to Russia among European consumer-staple companies, Morgan Stanley said, saying the regional Coke bottler gets 12% of sales from that market.

Troubles at Raiffeisen Bank

Eurointelligence comments on Raiffei se n Bank Troubles.

After Russia took over Danone and Carlsberg, what fate is awaiting Austria’s Raiffeisen bank? The US and EU’s banking authorities pressure the bank for some time now to exit Russia, but progress is slow and risks are getting higher. After some failed attempts to swap assets with Russian banks in Europe, Raiffeisen is stuck between the rock and a hard place…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Electric Vehicles for Everyone? If the Dream Was Met, Would it Help the Environment?

July 20, 2023

Electric Vehicles for Everyone? If the Dream Was Met, Would it Help the Environment?

Even if you are 100% convinced in man-made climate change, the idea the EV’s will help reduce CO₂emissions is nonsense.

The Impossible Dream

Hello climate change advocates, please open your minds and consider the Manhattan Institute report Electric Vehicles for Everyone? The Im pos sible Dream by Mark P. Mills, a Manhattan Institute senior fellow.

A dozen U.S. states, from California to New York, have joined dozens of countries, from Ireland to Spain, with plans to ban the sale of new cars with an internal combustion engine (ICE), many prohibitions taking effect within a decade. Meanwhile, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in a feat of regulatory legerdemain, has proposed tailpipe emissions rules that would effectively force automakers to shift to producing mainly electric vehicles (EVs) by 2032.

To ensure compliance with ICE prohibitions and soften the economic impacts, policymakers are deploying lavish subsidies for manufacturers and consumers. Enthusiasts claim that EVs already have achieved economic and operational parity, if not superiority, with automobiles and trucks fueled by petroleum, so the bans and subsidies merely accelerate what they believe is an inevitable transition.

It is certainly true that EVs are practical and appealing for many drivers. Even without subsidies or mandates, millions more will be purchased by consumers, if mainly by wealthy ones. But the facts reveal a fatal flaw in the core motives for the prohibitions and mandates.

Executive Summary Key Points

No one knows how much, if at all, CO₂ emissions will decline as EV use rises. Every claim for EVs reducing emissions is a rough estimate or an outright guess based on averages, approximations, or aspirations. The variables and uncertainties in emissions from energy-intensive mining and processing of minerals used to make EV batteries are a big wild card in the emissions calculus…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Fed Proposes a 4th Function of Money: Means of Social Control

March 23, 2023

The Fed Proposes a 4th Function of Money: Means of Social Control

A Federal Reserve white paper has come up with a new function for money. Let’s tune in.

Docket No. OP – 1670

Please consider Docket No. OP – 1670 on Interbank Settlement of Faster Payments.

The Federal Reserve Board announced that the Federal Reserve Banks will develop a new round-the-clock real-time payment and settlement service, called the FedNow^sm Service, to support faster payments in the United States.

This is a direct response to the threat posed by digital currencies and blockchain. According to one Fed official, “Last summer, the U.S. Treasury recommended that ‘the Federal Reserve move quickly to facilitate a faster retail payments system, such as through the development of a real-time settlement service, that would also allow for more efficient and ubiquitous access to innovative payment capabilities.”‘ We believe this effort requires a proof-of-authority quantum computing based blockchain system.

As we noted in our paper “Blockchain, Cryptocurrency and the Future of Monetary Policy,” confidential, not-for-distribution research sent to select members of the House Financial Services Committee, it is critical to understand that bitcoin was created in direct response to the failure of global regulators to protect the public in the years leading up to the financial crisis of 2007/2008. Thus, the ethical and monetary functionality of cryptocurrency is superior to that of paper money. Eventually, cryptocurrency is going to dominate.

As also noted in our paper, “The main economic attributes of a technically effective currency rests on three functions: as a unit of account, a store of value and as a medium of exchange.”

But there is a fourth function of money: as a means of social control. The centralized monopoly over the functions of money held by sovereign governments and central banks has generated great income and wealth imbalances…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Exploring the Massive Clean Energy Boondoggle of Burning Trees as Carbon Neutral

November 1, 2022

Exploring the Massive Clean Energy Boondoggle of Burning Trees as Carbon Neutral

To the shock of everyone with any semblance of common sense, we are clearcutting forests and burning the trees based on the idea the process is carbon neutral.

EPA Declared That Burning Wood Is Carbon Neutral

In 2018, the EPA Declared That Burning Wood Is Carbon Neutral.

Yesterday [April 23, 2018], the Environmental Protection Agency announced that it would begin to count the burning of “forest biomass”—a.k.a. wood—as carbon neutral. The change will classify burning of wood pellets a renewable energy similar to solar or wind power.

[But] Even if a tree is planted for every tree converted to fuel pellets, trees regrown on plantations don’t store the same carbon as natural forests. One recent study suggests it would take 40 to 100 years for a managed forest to capture the same amount of carbon as a natural forest. And since most plantation forests are harvested at 20 year intervals, they will never make it to the carbon-neutral point.

“Unless forests are guaranteed to regrow to carbon parity, production of wood pellets for fuel is likely to result in more CO2 in the atmosphere and fewer species than there are today,” William Schlesinger, President Emeritus of the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies writes for Science.

Doomberg picked up on this idea in an extensive set of Tweets.

Doomberg Tweet Thread

In the second half of the 16th century, Britain plunged into an energy crisis. At the time, the primary source of energy driving the British economy was heat derived from the burning of wood, and Britain was literally running out of trees.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Harsh Reality of Energy TINA Strikes the US and Europe

June 15, 2022

The Harsh Reality of Energy TINA Strikes the US and Europe

Hello EU and President Biden “There Is No Alternative” to Russian energy.

Natural gas chart courtesy of Trading Economics, annotations by Mish.

Some European Factories, Long Dependent on Cheap Russian Energy, Are Shutting Down

The Wall Street Journal reports Some European Factories, Long Dependent on Cheap Russian Energy, Are Shutting Down

For decades, European industry relied on Russia to supply low-cost oil and natural gas that kept the continent’s factories humming.

Now Europe’s industrial energy costs are soaring in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine, hobbling manufacturers’ ability to compete in the global marketplace. Factories are scrambling to find alternatives to Russian energy under threat that Moscow could abruptly turn off the gas spigot, bringing production to a halt.

Europe’s producers of chemicals, fertilizer, steel and other energy-intensive goods have come under pressure over the last eight months as tensions with Russia climbed ahead of the February invasion. Some producers are shutting down in the face of competition from factories in the U.S., the Middle East and other regions where energy costs are much lower than in Europe. Natural-gas prices are now nearly three times higher in Europe than in the U.S.

The Sanction Impact

Global map from Nations Online Project, annotations by Mish

De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation

On April 4, I wrote De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation

What I called “proposed” then is happening now.

The EU does not want to use Russian oil or natural gas.

So instead, the EU gets oil from Saudi Arabia and has turned to the US for liquid natural gas (LNG).

This economic madness is driving up the price of natural gas in the US as well.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

End of the 40-Year Bull in Debt and a “Global Depression” Threat

May 28, 2022

End of the 40-Year Bull in Debt and a “Global Depression” Threat

Francis Hunt interviews Danielle DiMartino Booth in a must watch video, her most economically comprehensive yet.

Discussion Topics

Please do yourself a favor and watch the video link below. Here are just some of topics discussed.

Possible end of the 40-year bull in debt, if so a “global depression” threat
Emerging Market Blowups
The Yen
Equity Markey Complacence – Bond Market Reacting to Reality of Higher Interest Rates, Equity Markets Say Prove Hikes Are Coming
Game of Chicken
Average age of Senators – No one will stand up to the Fed except Pat Toomey
Jay Powell knows the damage he did by saving BBB-rated bonds
Yield Curve Inversions – How Much Time Is There?
Watch currencies especially in countries importing energy
Inventories
De-globalization
Not going to get fiscal stimulus in this mid-term election year.
Housing wealth effect in reverse
Violent unwind of the carry trade (Yen and Euro)
Pension Plan Irony, Pension Plan Risk, Pension Plan Ponzi Schemes
Fed Pushes Legal Limits
Monetary policy favors the 1%
Extends and Pretend on Commercial Real Estate Loans, Midsize Banks Hold this Debt
Investment ideas: Look for Safe Municipals (not Illinois), Gold, Cash
Avoid value traps like discretionary spending and healthcare, wary of energy because of huge valuation runups

Two Teaser Quotes

In response to a question about the end of the 40-year bull market in bonds, Booth replied:

“I don’t do hyperbole at all, but if this really is the end, and we really are going to see real rates rise appreciably, then you are talking about a global depression.”

Later in the interview, Booth commented “If you want a front row seat with popcorn, follow the EM [emerging market] space.”

YouTube Interview

Thanks to Danielle DiMartino Booth and Francis Hunt for an amazingly informative video interview.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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