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Greater Fools and Bigger Liars
Greater Fools and Bigger Liars
Societies in decline have no use for visionaries
– Anaïs Nin
But Boehner was really of course just a man who through time increasingly became a kind of barrier between a president and his party on the one hand, and Boehner’s own, increasingly ‘out there’, party on the other. He moved from far right to the right middle just to keep the country going. In essence, that’s little more than his job, but just doing your job can get you some nasty treatment these days in the land of the free.
So now we’ll get a refresher course in government shutdown, though there’s no guarantee that Boehner’s successor will be enough of a greater fool to cut his/her (make that his) new-found career short by actually letting it happen. At least not before December.
The government shutdown is a threat like Janet Yellen’s rate hike, one which always seems to disappear right around the next corner, a process that eats away at credibility much more than participants are willing and/or able to acknowledge. Until it’s too late.
Now that it’s clear they lost on Obamacare, Republicans demand that funding for Planned Parenthood must stop, as the women’s group is accused of ‘improperly selling tissue harvested from aborted fetuses’, something it vehemently denies. And there we’re right back to the shadow boxing multi-millionaire tragic comedy act the US Congress has been for years now.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
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German Establishment View On Tsipras/Troika Showdown
German Establishment View On Tsipras/Troika Showdown
Der Spiegel has a long analysis today on the fate of Greece and the Tsipras/EU pas de deux. The tone toward Tsipras seemed secretly admiring while outwardly scornful and hostile. He comes off ultimately as the bad guy who is completely and solely to blame for the worsening crisis, with Merkel and EU bureaucrats portrayed as earnest leaders who badly miscalculated the situation and misread Tsipras.
Spigel simplistically summarized the views of the two sides:
From the Greek perspective, the EU, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the euro zone are all synonymous with poverty and exploitation. From the perspective of most European Union leaders, on the other hand, Greece is little more than a failed state governed by clientelism and nepotism, a country whose economy has little to offer aside from olive oil and beach bars.
Then it blamed the current Greek regime for exacerbating an already bad situation.
But relations between the Greek government and its partners in the 18 euro-zone capitals are deeply impaired. The Greek economy’s slide has dangerously accelerated under the new government and Brussels has lost almost all of its trust in Athens.
The Spiegel team went on to heap a litany of blame on the Tsipras regime.
Tsipras’s leftist-nationalist government has not done much for the economy. In the six months since the election, Greek parliament has done little to simplify the tax code as promised or to streamline the country’s bureaucracy. Furthermore, the man in charge of promoting international business relations in the Foreign Ministry is a cousin of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. But instead of boosting exports, he has primarily drawn attention to himself with his rhetoric of class struggle and his chastisements of Europe.
They apparently had little difficulty finding Tsipras critics within Greece.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Someone Pull The Plug or This Will End in War
Someone Pull The Plug or This Will End in War
I was going to write up on the uselessness of Angela Merkel, given that she said on this week that “giving in to Greece could ‘blow apart’ the euro”, and it’s the 180º other way around; it’s the consistent refusal to allow any leniency towards the Greeks that is blowing the currency union to smithereens.
Merkel’s been such an abject failure, the fullblown lack of leadership, the addiction to her right wing backbenchers, no opinion that seems to be remotely her own. But I don’t think the topic by itself makes much sense anymore for an article. It’s high time to take a step back and oversee the entire failing euro and EU system.
Greece is stuck in Germany’s own internal squabbles, and that more than anything illustrates how broken the system is. It was never supposed to be like that. No European leader in their right mind would ever have signed up for that.
Reading up on daily events, and perhaps on the verge of an actual Greece deal, increasingly I’m thinking this has got to stop, guys, there is no basis for this. It makes no sense and it is no use. The mold is broken. The EU as a concept, as a model, has failed and is already a thing of the past.
It’s over. And anything that’s done from here on in will only serve to make things worse. We should learn to recognize such transitions, and act on them. Instead of clinging on to what we think might have been long after it no longer is.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
With Yanis Gone, Now Troika Heads Must Roll
With Yanis Gone, Now Troika Heads Must Roll
Now that Yanis Varoufakis has resigned, in the kind of unique fashion and timing that shows us who the real men are, it’s time to clear the other side of the table as well. The new finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, should not have to face the same faces that led to Europe’s painful defeat in yesterday’s Greek referendum.
That would be an utter disgrace, and the EU would not survive it. So we now call for Juncker, Lagarde, Schäuble, Dijsselbloem, Draghi, Merkel and Schulz to move over.
It’s time for the Troika to seek out some real men too. It cannot be that the winner leaves and all the losers get to stay.
The attempts to suppress the IMF debt sustainability analysis were a shameful attempt to mislead the people of Greece, and of Europe as a whole. And don’t forget the US: Lagarde operates out of Washington.
It cannot be that after this mockery of democracy, these same people can just remain where they are.
It’s time for Europe to show the same democratic heart that Varoufakis has shown this morning. And if that doesn’t happen, all Europeans should make sure to leave the European Union as quickly as they can.
Because that would prove once and for all that the EU is no more than a cheap facade, a thin veil behind which something pretty awful tries to hide its ugly face.
Here is Yanis’ explanation behind his resignation:
Minister No More! (Yanis Varoufakis)
The referendum of 5th July will stay in history as a unique moment when a small European nation rose up against debt-bondage. Like all struggles for democratic rights, so too this historic rejection of the Eurogroup’s 25th June ultimatum comes with a large price tag attached. It is, therefore, essential that the great capital bestowed upon our government by the splendid NO vote be invested immediately into a YES to a proper resolution – to an agreement that involves debt restructuring, less austerity, redistribution in favour of the needy, and real reforms.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Biggest Issue Now Is “The Math”
The Biggest Issue Now Is “The Math”
Some quick pre-market observations from Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow
Just Don’t Nip Out for a Haircut
The Greek citizenry voted and the handicappers got it very wrong. The result of the vote was called much earlier than anyone expected. It wasn’t close.
Much was made last week of the abrogating of responsibility by PM Tsipras by allowing the referendum. How can mere citizens be trusted with understanding such difficult issues? Issues that the technocratic experts got nowhere with. No one expected the result. No one was set up for the result. Chaos will ensue. But here we are, admittedly early the next morning and the markets are remarkably calm
Merkel and Hollande will meet. The ECB will meet. The Greek cabinet will meet. Cool heads will prevail. The unpopular Varoufakis is not gloating, he is resigning. The base case remains that a deal will happen because it must happen. The Greek people may have gotten us closer to a deal than all of the summits ever could
EUR/USD has held inside last Monday’s range. Two Mondays in a row, the pair has traded below 1.1000 and quickly rejected those lower prices. The 100-DMA (1.1057) is looking more like a pivot than a line in the sand. USD/JPY has bent, but not broken; 122.00 continues to be an important level and is holding. Watch the JPY as a measure of safe-haven demand
I remain a USD bull and still think EUR/USD will go lower, but its resilience in light of all the news is impressive.
Bund futures are higher, but holding well below the 55-DMA (153.61). U.S. 10-yr futures are holding below the important 127-00 level. Watch 126-16 as interesting support. Below there we are back into familiar territory
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
This Is Why The Euro Is Finished
This Is Why The Euro Is Finished
The IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis report on Greece that came out this week has caused a big stir. We now know that the Fund’s analysts confirm what Syriza has been saying ever since they came to power 5 months ago: Greece needs debt relief, lots of it, and fast.
We also know that Europe tried to silence the report. But what’s most interesting is that this has been going on for months, as per Reuters. Ergo, the IMF has known about the -preliminary- analysis for months, and kept silent, while at the same time ‘negotiating’ with Greece on austerity and bailouts.
And if you dig a bit deeper still, there’s no avoiding the fact that the IMF hasn’t merely known this for months, it’s known it for years. The Greek Parliamentary Debt Committee reported three weeks ago that it has in its possession an IMF document from 2010(!) that confirms the Fund knew even at that point in time.
That is to say, it already knew back then that the bailout executed in 2010 would push Greece even further into debt. Which is the exact opposite of what the bailout was supposed to do.
The 2010 bailout was the one that allowed private French, Dutch and German banks to transfer their liabilities to the Greek public sector, and indirectly to the entire eurozone‘s public sector. There was no debt restructuring in that deal.
Reuters yesterday reported that “Publication of the draft Debt Sustainability Analysis laid bare a dispute between Brussels and [the IMF] that has been simmering behind closed doors for months..
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Troika Documents Say Greece Needs Huge Debt Relief
Troika Documents Say Greece Needs Huge Debt Relief
Just when you think things can’t get any crazier, they always do. The Guardian reports on unpublished Troika documents that show Greece is only too right in asking for debt relief. That for the Syriza government to sign what the Troika wants to force them to sign would see Tsipras et al plunge their country into a financial hell hole.
What’s potentially even weirder is that all German MPs have received the documents, because a vote on them was supposed to take place, but none have said a thing about them. Good thing one at least was awake enough to send them to the press.
So they have these docs, and then yesterday Merkel says no more talks until after the referendum, and total silence follows. Boy, has she fallen from her pedestal. We know the Troika are composed of lackeys to the banking system -and this proves it once and for all-, but Merkel is worse. And she has the entire Bundestag wrapped around her finger. Some democracy, that Germany.
But the documents were also part of a package that was sent to Greece and everyone else. But still debt relief remained off the table? What am I missing here? How could Tsipras have signed off on this? He could see the Troika’s own numbers, and still they refused to take them into account and make them part of the deal?!
The Guardian gives the write up a half-ass title, but the contents are clear enough.
IMF: Austerity Measures Would Still Leave Greece With Unsustainable Debt
Greece would face an unsustainable level of debt by 2030 even if it signs up to the full package of tax and spending reforms demanded of it, according to unpublished documents compiled by its three main creditors. The documents, drawn up by the so-called troika of lenders, support Greece’s argument that it needs substantial debt relief for a lasting economic recovery.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Troika Documents Say Greece Needs Huge Debt Relief
Troika Documents Say Greece Needs Huge Debt Relief
Just when you think things can’t get any crazier, they always do. The Guardian reports on unpublished Troika documents that show Greece is only too right in asking for debt relief. That for the Syriza government to sign what the Troika wants to force them to sign would see Tsipras et al plunge their country into a financial hell hole.
What’s potentially even weirder is that all German MPs have received the documents, because a vote on them was supposed to take place, but none have said a thing about them. Good thing one at least was awake enough to send them to the press.
So they have these docs, and then yesterday Merkel says no more talks until after the referendum, and total silence follows. Boy, has she fallen from her pedestal. We know the Troika are composed of lackeys to the banking system -and this proves it once and for all-, but Merkel is worse. And she has the entire Bundestag wrapped around her finger. Some democracy, that Germany.
But the documents were also part of a package that was sent to Greece and everyone else. But still debt relief remained off the table? What am I missing here? How could Tsipras have signed off on this? He could see the Troika’s own numbers, and still they refused to take them into account and make them part of the deal?!
The Guardian gives the write up a half-ass title, but the contents are clear enough.
IMF: Austerity Measures Would Still Leave Greece With Unsustainable Debt
Greece would face an unsustainable level of debt by 2030 even if it signs up to the full package of tax and spending reforms demanded of it, according to unpublished documents compiled by its three main creditors. The documents, drawn up by the so-called troika of lenders, support Greece’s argument that it needs substantial debt relief for a lasting economic recovery.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Top German Politician Blasts Nuland & Carter: “F##k US Imperialism”
Top German Politician Blasts Nuland & Carter: “F##k US Imperialism”
With intra-Europe relations hitting a new all-time low; and, having already been busted spying on Merkel, Obama got caught with his hand in Hollande’s cookie jar this week, the following exultation from one of Germany’s top politicians will hardly help Washington-Brussells relations. As Russia Insider notes, Oskar Lafontaine is a major force in German politics so it caught people’s attention when he excoriated Ash Carter and Victoria Nuland on his Facebook page yesterday… “Nuland says ‘F*ck the EU’. We need need an EU foreign policy that stops warmongering US imperialism… F*ck US imperialism!”
Here is the Facebook post (in German):
Lafontaine has been an outsized figure in German politics since the mid-70s. He was chairman of the SPD (one of Germany’s two main parties) for four years, the SPD’s candidate for chancellor in 1990, minister of finance for two years, and then chairman of the Left party in the 2000s. He is married to Sarah Wagenknecht, political heavyweight, who is currently co-chairman of Left party.
Lafontaine’s outburst came a day after his wife, Sarah Wagenknecht, blasted Merkel’s Russia policy in an interview on RT.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greece Invokes Nuclear Option: Tsipras Calls For Referendum
Greece Invokes Nuclear Option: Tsipras Calls For Referendum
Update: Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has announced a referendum in a televised speech to the nation after another day of fractious negotiations with creditors closed without a deal.
The dramatic move comes after Athens rejected a proposal from the troika aimed at delivering some €16 billion in aid to Greece as part of an extension of the country’s second bailout program.
- GREECE’S TSIPRAS SAYS CREDITORS POSED ULTIMATUM TO GOVT
- GREECE’S TSIPRAS SAYS CREDITORS PROPOSALS ARE AGAINST EU RULES
- TSIPRAS SAYS CREDITORS AIM TO HUMILIATE GREEK PEOPLE
- TSIPRAS SAYS WILL CALL REFERENDUM ON GREEK DEAL WITH CREDITORS
- TSIPRAS GREEK REFERENDUM WILL BE HELD ON JULY 5
- TSIPRAS SAYS HE NOTIFIED MERKEL, DRAGHI ON REFERENDUM PLAN
- TSIPRAS SAYS GREECE IS, AND WILL STAY PART OF EUROPE
- TSIPRAS SAYS GREECE NEEDS TO SEND DEMOCRATIC RESPONSE TO EU
Protothema now says the Greek parliament will meet on Saturday and a referendum will be called as early as next week. Whether this is simply a last minute attempt to put pressure on EU finance ministers ahead of Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure: Tsipras is playing a dangerous game with the ECB ahead of a difficult week that could very well see the imposition of capital controls.
More from Kathimerini:
The government is considering a referendum on the substance of the agreement, according to recent reports, during the enlarged meeting taking place from Friday night at the Maximos Mansion. The referendum is expected to be held next Sunday, while the prime minister has already informed the political leaders. The prime minister after returning from Brussels convened the extraordinary Governing Council at the Maximos Mansion, which after 23:00 turned into cabinet by attendance of ministers and party executives to discuss the latest developments and next steps in view of tomorrow’s Eurogroup.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
It’s Time for Angela Merkel to Stand Up
It’s Time for Angela Merkel to Stand Up
I need to start of off the bat with an update to this piece, which I started writing yesterday, since I now know that Angela Merkel actually did invite Alexis Tsipras on Monday. It only took her two months…. But that doesn’t take away anything from my point that Merkel has been sorely lacking and missing, it just goes to prove that point.
And if she doesn’t get her act together very quickly (why not ask Tsipras to be in Berlin tomorrow morning?!), this will, I’ve said it before, go down as her main legacy. She will be known as the person who let Europe slip into war, for no good reason whatsoever. Here’s what I started off with last night (Oz time):
The increasing ugliness of the ‘negotiations’ between the Greek Syriza government and the rest of the eurozone, which is ruled by the German government, needs to be halted and put in reverse. There is an urgent need for a detente, for cooler heads and for trust. And there is only one person who can act to create these things: Angela Merkel. But Merkel is nowhere to be found or seen.
The increasing ugliness of the propaganda war the west is waging against Russia and its president Vladimir Putin, also needs to be halted. There is an even more urgent need there for a detente, for cooler heads and for trust. There is only one person who can act to create these things: Angela Merkel. But Merkel is AWOL.
There are German voices in the Putin case that call for reason and quiet, and that have labeled people like NATO head Stoltenberg, NATO General Breedlove and US State Department ‘Assistant’ Victoria Nuland more or less insane. But Merkel’s voice is not among them, nowhere to be heard.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Germany Has Had Enough With US Neocons: Berlin “Stunned” At US Desire For War In Ukraine
Germany Has Had Enough With US Neocons: Berlin “Stunned” At US Desire For War In Ukraine
While Russia’s envoy to NATO notes that statements by the deputy head of NATO testify to the fact that the leaders of the bloc want to intervene in Russia’s internal politics, and are “dreaming of Russian Maidan,” Washington has a bigger problem… Germany. As Der Spiegel reports, while US President Obama ‘supports’ Chancellor Merkel’s efforts at finding a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis, hawks in Washington seem determined to torpedo Berlin’s approach. And NATO’s top commander in Europe hasn’t been helping either with sources in the Chancellery have referred to Breedlove’s comments as “dangerous propaganda.”
This is the view of Russia’s permanent envoy to NATO:
“The speech in Riga demonstrates the concern about Russia’s democracy and internal policy. At last, now we know that NATO has a dream, and this dream is a Maidan in Russia,” Aleksandr Grushko said in comment that was tweeted through the Russian representation office in the alliance.Grushko referred to the words of NATO’s deputy secretary general, Alexander Vershbow, who had told a conference in the Latvian capital Riga that President Vladimir Putin’s “aim seems to be to turn Ukraine into a failed state and to suppress and discredit alternative voices in Russia, so as to prevent a Russian ‘Maidan.'” Both officials used the Ukrainian word ‘Maidan’ to describe a string of protest actions that eventually turned into mass unrest and the ousting of the legally elected president and parliament.
And as Der Spiegel reports, The Germans are not happy.
Breedlove’s Bellicosity: Berlin Alarmed by Aggressive NATO Stance on Ukraine
US President Obama supports Chancellor Merkel’s efforts at finding a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis. But hawks in Washington seem determined to torpedo Berlin’s approach. And NATO’s top commander in Europe hasn’t been helping either.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Minsk Peace Deal: Farce Or Sellout?
The Minsk Peace Deal: Farce Or Sellout?
Judging by the report on RT http://rt.com/news/231667-minsk-ceasefire-deal-breakup/
I conclude that the Ukraine peace deal worked out in Minsk by Putin, Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko has little chance of success.
As Washington is not a partner to the Minsk peace deal, how can there be peace when Washington has made policy decisions to escalate the conflict and to use the conflict as a proxy war between the US and Russia?
The Minsk agreement makes no reference to the announcement by Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of US Army Europe, that Washington is sending a battalion of US troops to Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces how to fight against Russian and rebel forces. The training is scheduled to begin in March, about two weeks from now. Gen. Hodges says that it is very important to recognize that the Donetsk and Luhansk forces “are not separatists, these are proxies for President Putin.”
How is there a peace deal when Washington has plans underway to send arms and training to the US puppet government in Kiev?
Looking at the deal itself, it is set up to fail. The only parties to the deal who had to sign it are the leaders of the Donetsk and Lugansk break-away republics. The other signers to the Minsk deal are an OSCE representative which is the European group that is supposed to monitor the withdrawal of heavy weapons by both sides, a former Ukrainian president Viktor Kuchma, and the Russian ambassador in Kiev. Neither the German chancellor nor the French, Ukrainian, and Russian presidents who brokered the deal had to sign it.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Ukraine Ceasefire Deal Agreed After Negotiations All-Nighter; Doubts Remain About Its Implementation
Ukraine Ceasefire Deal Agreed After Negotiations All-Nighter; Doubts Remain About Its Implementation
It would have simply been too much to handle for Europe and the risk off algos if hours after the embarrassing failure of the emergency Eurogroup meeting in Brussels failed to reach any deal involving Greece, the Ukraine ceasefire negotiations in Minsk were also to fall apart. Again. Which is probably why after a marathon session lasting 17 hours, and following repeated trial balloons that a deal had and/or had not been reached, a short while ago all major media outlets were delighted to finally blast some Risk On news namely that leaders of France and Germany brokered a renewed deal to end Ukraine’s 10-month civil war in the separatist eastern region, which means that we have a Minsk-signed Ukraine ceasefire. Again.
As the WSJ reports, “details of the agreement weren’t immediately available” but it involves a cease-fire starting on February 15, Sunday, with each side pulling back heavy weapons, as well as steps to give greater autonomy to the Russia-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. All negotiators, namely Ukraine’s Petro Poroshenko, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Germany’s Angela Merkel, and France’s Francois Hollande said there are no alternatives to peaceful solution.
Some more from Bloomberg according to which Ukraine would start getting border control day after regional elections and full control after constitutional reforms, including decentralization, according to copy of document signed by contact group in Minsk, Belarus.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
