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As we noted on Friday, sea-level analytics firm Climate Central had created a simulation based on the National Hurricane Center’s Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment storm surge and wave modeling that illustrated the devastating flooding in Miami that could result from Hurricane Irma’s storm surge. By overlaying the NHC data with a three-dimensional visual of the city obtained using Google maps, the firm created a realistic visual of what the city would look like under between seven and 11 feet of water.

Luckily, in the last minute the Hurricane shifted westward, but the concerns remain.

Given the expected intensity of the flooding, some readers might assume that the dreaded surge would be the result of tsunami-like waves overwhelming the city’s beaches. But that’s not the case. As the Associated Press explains, the hurricane-force winds draw in water not just form the ocean, but other nearby bodies of water as well. However, forecasters say surges kill more people than the strong winds.

As Florida Gov. Rick Scott warned, the surge “will cover your house.” Already, at least three Floridians have died in the Keys.

“It’s not a wall of water or a tsunami. Simply put, hurricane winds push water toward shore. It can happen quickly and far from a storm’s center, inundating areas that don’t typically flood.

Storm surge doesn’t just come from the ocean. It can come from sounds, bays and lakes, sometimes well inland.”

And with a category four Hurricane like Irma, the water can rise quickly, creating a potentially lethal surprise.

Large hurricanes tend to create greater storm surge over a broader area, and coastal features such as bays can act like funnels and back water up into rivers and canals, said Jamie Rhome, head of the U.S. National Hurricane Center’s storm surge unit.

‘This is going to sneak up on people,’ Rhome said.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Irma Begins To Lash Florida With Hurricane-Force Winds, Tornadoes Reported

September 10, 2017

Irma Begins To Lash Florida With Hurricane-Force Winds, Tornadoes Reported

With just hours left until landfall, sometime on Sunday morning, Hurricane Irma is edging ever closer to Florida and has started to batter the state with Hurricane force winds as millions brace for the impact of the most powerful Atlantic storm in a decade.

According to ABC and AP, the National Weather Service measured a 74-mph gust in the Florida Keys on Saturday night, marking the beginning of hurricane-force winds that forecasters say will steadily intensify in the coming hours.

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Intense #SouthBeach #SaturdayNight #HurricaneIrma #Curfewnow….8p-7a @WPLGLocal10

8:38 PM – Sep 9, 2017

A tornado watch is in effect across the area, and at least two such twisters have already been reported.

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#Tornado in #FortLauderdale #Irma2017 #IrmaFlorida @wsvn @WPLGLocal10 #NBC6

6:55 PM – Sep 9, 2017

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Curfews Issued Across Southern Florida Cities: “Deputies Will Not Be Responding”

September 9, 2017

Curfews Issued Across Southern Florida Cities: “Deputies Will Not Be Responding”

Local governments are now issuing curfews across South Florida.

Broward County has issued a curfew starting at 4:00 pm and remains in effect until further notice.

A mandatory curfew will also be in place tonight in Coral Springs from 8:00 p.m. – 6:00 a.m.

The City of Fort Lauderdale will enforce a Countywide curfew beginning at 4 p.m.

A barrier island curfew will be in effect for the City of Deerfield Beach and the Town of Hillsboro Beach at noon. A Citywide curfew for Deerfield Beach will also begin at noon.

The City of Miami Beach issues curfew starting at 8:00 p.m. Saturday – 7:00 a.m. Sunday.

A mandatory 3pm curfew will be in place in Palm Beach County until further notice

As CBS reports, Broward County Mayor Barbara Sharief said, “When winds reach 45 mph, deputies will not be responding.”

Effects of the storm will get stronger throughout the day. “By 2 p.m., residents will start feeling tropical storm force winds,”she said.

“It’s A Killer” – Florida Orders A Third Of The Population To Evacuate As Irma Hurtles Toward Tampa

September 9, 2017

“It’s A Killer” – Florida Orders A Third Of The Population To Evacuate As Irma Hurtles Toward Tampa

Florida’s highways and backroads are clogged with motorists after Gov. Rick Scott has ordered an unprecedented 6.2 million residents of central and southern Florida to evacuate. Meanwhile, Miami, along with many towns and cities along the state’s southeastern coast, resembles a ghost town, according to the New York Post.

To recap: The category 4 storm has already carved a path of destruction through the Caribbean, leaving 90% or Barbuda uninhabitable and nearly a million people without power in Puerto Rico. And now, with the storm’s outer bands already battering the southern part of the state, meteorologists are saying Irma has suddenly shifted westward and is now heading toward Florida’s Gulf Coast – specifically, the Tampa Bay area.

Here’s the Associated Press:

Forecasters expect Irma’s core to come ashore Sunday and strike the Keys, southwestern Florida and the Tampa Bay region, which hasn’t felt a major hurricane since 1921. The eye is expected to miss heavily-populated Miami, which may have dodged a bubble in the last minute, but that area will still get life-threatening hurricane conditions even without a direct hit, Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said.

ABC News

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LATEST: #Irma currently Cat. 3 Hurricane with winds of 125 mph; expected to restrengthen as it heads towards Florida http://abcn.ws/2xcR82b pic.twitter.com/6MStKhvII4

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MORE: #Irma 175 miles SE of Key West, FL, moving west at 9 mph; expected head up western coast of Florida. http://abcn.ws/2xcR82b pic.twitter.com/b6XtIF92YI

11:10 AM – Sep 9, 2017

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hurricane Irma Is Being Called ‘A Lawnmower From The Sky’ And FEMA Warns It Will ‘Devastate’ The Southeast

September 9, 2017

Hurricane Irma Is Being Called ‘A Lawnmower From The Sky’ And FEMA Warns It Will ‘Devastate’ The Southeast

It looks like Hurricane Irma is going to make landfall in south Florida on Sunday morning. Of course that could still change, but this is what the meteorologists are telling us at this point. But of course the exact spot where Irma makes landfall is not so important because of the absolutely immense size of this storm. Irma is going to cause chaos and devastation over a very large area, and just like Hurricane Harvey the recovery from this storm is literally going to be measured in years.

Down in the Caribbean, the destruction that Irma has caused has been absolutely unprecedented. The president of the island of Saint Martin “estimated that 95 percent of his country had been obliterated”, and one resident of the island described the storm as “a lawnmower from the sky”…

Witnesses described similar scenes on the island’s Dutch half. “It’s like someone with a lawnmower from the sky has gone over the island,” said Mairlou Rohan, a European tourist visiting Sint Maarten, part of the Netherlands.

That is not the sort of terminology that I would use, but without a doubt the devastation caused by this storm has been off the charts.

On Barbuda, at least 90 percent of the buildings have been destroyed…

Gaston Browne, the prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda, said Barbuda was “totally demolished,” with 90% of its buildings destroyed. Communication with the island was cut off because of the destruction. As Hurricane Jose approaches the island, Barbuda officials are trying to evacuate the entire population of 1,800.

Now the storm is heading straight for south Florida, and FEMA is using apocalyptic language to describe what might happen…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

If You Think Your Friday Evening Commute Is Bad…

September 8, 2017

If You Think Your Friday Evening Commute Is Bad…

As the “biggest evacuation in US history” continues, stunning images are showing what a nightmare shifting 650,000 people out of state looks like.

The mass exodus began yesterday…

But, as you drive home tonight from work, ready for beer-0-clock, spare a thought for these poor displaced folk stuck in this utter disaster…

Called a “game changer” for the Marijuana industry, this stock is rapidly dominating one of the largest markets in the legal cannabis space.

As they flee this…

And it’s only going to get worse…

Hurricane Irma Prompts Oil Storage, Port Shutdowns

September 8, 2017

Hurricane Irma Prompts Oil Storage, Port Shutdowns

Hurricane Irma has prompted the shutdown of at least two oil storage complexes in the Caribbean, with a combined capacity of 18.6 million barrels, S&P Platts reports. One of these, a 14-million-barrel terminal on the island of St Eustatius operated by NuStar Energy sustained damages to some of its tanks and other equipment, the company said.

The other facility, Buckeye Partners’ Yabucoa storage complex in Puerto Rico, was shut down on Tuesday and the company is now preparing its 26.2-million-barrel storage facility on Grand Bahama Island for the hurricane. Statoil, which also has a storage site in Freeport on Grand Bahama, is monitoring developments but has not yet closed the facility.

The hurricane, which has already caused 14 deaths in the Caribbean, is moving toward Florida and is expected to make landfall on Sunday, passing through the Bahamas and Cuba en route. Some 1.2 million people have been affected by Irma so far, according to Red Cross data, and this number could shoot up to 26 million as a result of the damage done by the storm.

In Florida, ports will start closing today ahead of the storm, and this could disrupt the supply of oil products, Platts notes. Florida receives 97 percent of its oil products by sea, with throughput at Port Everglades, in eastern Florida, at 121.07 million barrels last year. Port Everglades is among the terminals that will be closed. Related: China Declares Support For Punitive Action Against North Korea

Already in some parts of the state, fuel retailers are reporting shortages as people stock up on gasoline ahead of Irma’s arrival and evacuate. Meanwhile, two more storms are brewing in the region, with the U.S. National Hurricane Center expecting Jose to intensify to a major hurricane by the end of the day today. The other one, Katia, is in the Gulf of Mexico, expected to reach the Mexican coast late today or early tomorrow.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Is What Miami Could Look Like On Sunday Morning

September 8, 2017

This Is What Miami Could Look Like On Sunday Morning

An analysis by Climate Central shows that the Florida storm surge from hurricane Irma could endanger millions, and result in hundreds of billions in property damage.

According to Climate Central, it has created the following resources to help anyone remaining in the area visually understand how dangerous the flooding will be in their neighborhood and take safety measures accordingly.

These simulations are based on the Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (CERA) storm surge and wave model using data from the National Hurricane Center forecast track from Friday morning (Advisory 37). CERA partners include multiple leading universities and federal agencies.

The videos use Google Earth to simulate what the these storm surge forecasts would appear like in different South Florida neighborhoods. The height above mean sea level for each simulation is shown in the titles. As local topography varies, these values translate to approximately 7-10 feet of water above ground in many areas according to the Storm Surge Warming forecasts from the National Weather Service.

Downtown Miami (13.5 feet)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Swamp Fever

September 8, 2017

Swamp Fever

Further proof, as if more were needed, that God is rather cross with the world’s number one exceptional nation: Hurricane Irma is tracking for a direct hit on Disney World. In the immortal words of the Talking Heads: This ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco, this ain’t no fooling around.

Houston is still soggy and punch-drunk, with a fantastic explosion of breeding mosquitoes, and otherwise it’s not even in the news anymore. This week, the cable networks had their scant crews of reporters scuttling around Florida, asking the people here and there about their feelings. “What’s gonna happen is gonna happen….” I think I heard that one about sixty times, and there’s actually no disputing the truth of it.

For the moment, though (Friday morning), it’s a little hard to calculate the effect of a complete scrape-off, wash, and rinse of the state of Florida vis-à-vis the ongoing viability of the US economy. There’s going to be a big hole with dollars rushing into it and that will likely prompt the combined powers of the US Treasury, congress, and the Federal Reserve to materialize tens of billions of new dollars. Overnight the DXY plunged to a new low for the year.

Am I the only observer wondering if Irma may be a fatal blow to the banking system? The mind reels at the insurance implications of what’s about to happen. Urgent obligations triggered by an event of this scale can’t possibly be serviced. Look for it to snap the chain of counterparty leverage that has been propping up the banks, insurers, and pension funds on mere promises for years on end. Finance, both private and public, has been feeding off unreality since well before the tremor of 2008. The destruction of Florida (and whatever else stands in the way up the line) will be as real as it gets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Millions To Be Without Power As “Deadly, Devastating” Irma Closes In On Florida

September 8, 2017

Millions To Be Without Power As “Deadly, Devastating” Irma Closes In On Florida

Irma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear environment for the next 36-48 h. The intensity guidance shows a slow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at least a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida. After landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction and increased shear, although Irma’s large wind field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large area. There are two caveats to the intensity forecast. First, some additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement, followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes. Second, the ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast. If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along the later parts of the track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through Saturday. Heavy rainfall is still possible across portions of Hispaniola through today. Hurricane conditions will also spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday.

2. Severe hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Saturday night. Irma is likely to make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts to much of the state.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Irma Is Being Described As A ‘Nuclear Hurricane’ That Has Left One Island ‘Practically Uninhabitable’

September 8, 2017

Irma Is Being Described As A ‘Nuclear Hurricane’ That Has Left One Island ‘Practically Uninhabitable’

Irma is not just another hurricane – it is a history making storm that is going to cause up to a quarter of a trillion dollars in damage once it makes landfall in the United States. In fact, Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine used the term “nuclear hurricane” to describe this storm to the media. I would never use that term personally, but I am in agreement that it would be exceedingly difficult to overstate the danger that this storm represents. According to the National Hurricane Center, Irma has been a category 5 storm for more than 50 hours, and that is already one of the longest stretches on record.

Of course if you were to extrapolate the Saffir-Simpson scale, Irma would have been considered a category 6 storm when it had sustained winds of 185 miles per hour. This is a point that I made in my article entitled “Hurricane Irma: If There Was Such A Thing As A Category 6 Hurricane, This Would Be It”.

And just a day later, MSNBC published an article with a suspiciously similar headline: “If there were a category 6 hurricane, Irma would be it”.

So will the rest of the mainstream media attack MSNBC for saying the exact same thing that I did?

Of course not.

And will the mainstream media attack Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine for calling Irma “a nuclear hurricane”?…

“We have talked to people in your city who say, ‘We ain’t going,’” CBS4’s Hank Tester told Levine.

“I hate to hear that. I’ll do anything in my power to convince them this is a very serious storm. This is a nuclear hurricane. They should leave the beach, they must leave the beach,” he said.

Of course not.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Panic Buying of Gasoline in Florida, 40% of Miami Stations Out of Gas: Blame Anti-Gouging Laws for Shortages

September 7, 2017

Panic Buying of Gasoline in Florida, 40% of Miami Stations Out of Gas: Blame Anti-Gouging Laws for Shortages

As Hurricane Irma nears Florida, everyone is in a rush to fill up their tanks. About 40% of the gasoline stations in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale region are now without fuel. Floridians have turned to the Crowd-Sourced ‘Gas Buddy’ App to determine which stations still have gas.

The above image from the web version of Gas Buddy Tracker. Zoom into the area you’re looking for gas to see the red and green symbols indicating fuel shortages. Gas Buddy says the mobile app is more accurate.

Patrick DeHaan, the senior petroleum analyst at Gas Buddy, said their newest feature – the Gas Availability Tracker – has now been rolled out to those who could be affected by Hurricane Irma in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

“The tool seeks to help motorists in need to find gasoline, and certainly in some cases. will also help motorists find stations that have power,” DeHaan said.

The app was developed during Hurricane Harvey in Texas. People can log in to view gas stations in their area. A red fuel pump icon indicates the station currently has gas. A red lightning bolt icon indicates the station has power, especially helpful for those in areas affected by power outages.

The data is largely crowdsourced by users who submit information through the app.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott announced in Miami that he’s asked the governors of Alabama and Georgia to waive trucking regulations so tankers can get fuel into the city, which is experiencing one of the largest shortages statewide as residents prepare for the hurricane’s landfall.

He told residents of the Florida Keys that “we’re doing everything to get fuel to you as quickly as possible.” Tourists are under a mandatory evacuation order, which began Wednesday morning.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Not Just Florida: Georgia And South Carolina Face “Catastrophic Storm Surge”

September 7, 2017

Not Just Florida: Georgia And South Carolina Face “Catastrophic Storm Surge”

As Hurricane Irma looks to be hurdling straight for a direct hit on Southern Florida, meteorologists from Weather Underground are warning that the most devastating impacts of the storm could be felt much further north in towns along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where the storm surge could be a catastrophic 20-28 feet high in certain areas. To put that in perspective, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 set a record for the largest storm surge ever recorded along the U.S. coast at 27.8 feet.

If Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, as the models currently suggest, the portions of the coast that the eyewall touches will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records and causing many billions of dollars in damage. Even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges. The area of most concern is the northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina, due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights. If we look at wunderground’s storm surge maps for the U.S. East Coast, we see that in a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 – 20’ above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 – 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 – 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

American Society of Civil Engineers Warns: Florida’s Coastal Areas & Stormwater Infrastructure Are in Poor Condition

September 7, 2017

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS WARNS: FLORIDA’S COASTAL AREAS & STORMWATER INFRASTRUCTURE ARE IN POOR CONDITION

Hurricane Irma is one of the most powerful Atlantic Cat-5 hurricanes ever, barreling towards Florida with 175mph winds moving West North West at 16mph. The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting Irma will make Florida landfall as a ‘major hurricane’ (wind speed greater than 110mph) on Sunday morning at 8am.

Infrastructure in Florida is the backbone of the economy. The American Society of Civil Engineers released Florida’s 2016 Report Card with a rating of “C”. That means the overall health of the state’s infrastructure is “mediocre”.

Here is the concerning part. Coastal areas and stormwater systems are in very poor condition—under preforming with “D” ratings. With Irma’s potential impact on Sunday this could be cataphatic for flood zones when considering the intensity of the storm.

Coastal area report card D+,

Florida’s economy relies heavily on its 825 miles of sandy beaches, the state’s “invisible” coastal infrastructure that protects Florida’s communities from storm damage. Florida beaches are also significant to the economy as the number of beachgoers yearly is more than double the number of visitors to all U.S. parks combined. Unfortunately, nearly 61% of Florida’s sandy beaches (503.8 miles) are eroding. Beaches and inlets require ongoing maintenance to fight erosion. Developing and applying local and regional beach management strategies has proven essential to decreasing the risk exposure in coastal areas and providing storm damage reduction benefits, such as protection of power plants adjacent to the coast. However, over the last 10 years, the average difference between requested and state appropriated funds exceeded $40 million per year.

Stomwater systems report card D,

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

FEMA Chief, Miami Beach Mayor Warn: “Get Out Now, This Is A Devastating, Nuclear Hurricane”

September 7, 2017

FEMA Chief, Miami Beach Mayor Warn: “Get Out Now, This Is A Devastating, Nuclear Hurricane”

After laying waste to the Northern Caribbean and leaving most of bankrupt Puerto Rico without power – perhaps for months – Hurricane Irma, still a category five storm, is expected to make landfall near Miami this weekend. Florida Gov. Rick Scott has already declared a state of emergency, and last night more than 100,000 Miami-Dade residents in Miami Beach and low-lying mainland areas were instructed to leave their homes by Miami Mayor Carlos Gimenez, who issued his first evacuation order.

Now, FEMA Chief Brock Long says that the storm will have a “truly devastating” impact when it slams into southern coastal areas of the US, adding that people in Florida and other states must heed evacuation orders after the storm killed more than 10 people in the Caribbean.

The FEMA chief said Irma would be only the fourth Category Five hurricane to hit the United States since 19851, conjuring memories of Hurricane Andrew, which demolished parts of Florida in 1992.

“Bottom line is the majority of people along the coast have never experienced a major hurricane like this. It will be truly devastating,” he told CNN.

While mandatory evacuation orders have so far only been issued in parts of Florida, Brock expects similar orders to be issued for Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina within the next 48 hours, Long said: “The entire southeastern United States better wake up and pay attention,” he added.

The mayor of Miami Beach Philip Levine also warned that Irma could have an impact of “nuclear” proportions, though it was unclear if he was referring to the two nuclear power plants that lie directly in the path of the hurricane.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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