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FLATION will be the keyword in coming years. The world will simultaneously experience inFLATION, deFLATION, stagFLATION and eventually hyperinFLATION.

I have forecasted these FLATIONARY events, which will hit the world in several articles in the past. Here is a link to an article from 2016.

With most asset classes falling rapidly, the world is now approaching calamities of a proportion not seen before in history. So far in 2022, we have seen an implosion of asset prices across the board of around 20%. What few investors realise is that this is the mere beginning. Before this bear market is over, the world will see 75-90% falls of stocks, bonds and other assets.

Since falls of this magnitude have not been seen for more than three generations, the shockwaves will be calamitous.

At the same time as bubble assets deflate, prices of goods and services have started an inflationary cycle of a magnitude that the world as whole has never experienced before.

We have seen hyperinflation in individual countries previously but never on a global scale.

Currently the official inflation rate is around 8% in the US and Europe. But for the average consumer in the West, prices are rising by at least 25% on average for their everyday needs such as food and fuel.

A CALAMITOUS WORLD

So the world is now approaching calamities on many fronts.

As always in periods of crisis, everybody is looking for someone to blame. In the West most people blame Putin. Yes, Putin is the villain and it is his fault that food and energy prices are surging. Nobody bothers to analyse what or who prompted Russia to intervene, nor do politicians or main stream media understand the importance of history, which is the key to understanding current events.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Handbook for Debt-Soaked Nations: Lie, Print, Inflate & Finger-Point

June 3, 2022

The Handbook for Debt-Soaked Nations: Lie, Print, Inflate & Finger-Point

Below we consider the classic (and oh-so predictable) tactics of debt-soaked nations facing a showdown (corner) between tanking markets and ripping inflation.

Ultimately, I see a stagflationary end-game in which both occur, but for the near-term, prepare for more inflation, as it’s the option all debt-soaked sovereigns are eternally forced to take.

The Cruelest Month

T.S. Elliot famously described April as the cruelest month, but the recent (and ever-unfolding) events of May seem far crueler.

As we have warned from the very onset of this otherwise avoidable war in Ukraine, the backfiring of Western sanctions against Putin (de-dollarization, inflationary tailwinds and increasingly discredited central banks) were not only plain to foresee, but placed the West in an almost comical (yet tragic) scenario in which nations like Germany find themselves sending weapons to the Ukraine while simultaneously sending Rubles to Putin.

How did the world become so hypocritical, dishonest, cornered and silly?

(Cold) Economic Realism vs. (Empty) Moral Posturing

As George Washington observed in a 1770’s moment of Realpolitik candor: “Nations have no permanent friends nor permanent enemies, just permanent interests.”

Turning to 2022, the self-interested reality of Western reliance on Russian energy has made their front-page virtue signaling a bit less virtuous…

Such cold realism explains why Italian Prime Minster Draghi realistically confessed as early as May 11 that EU companies could pay for Russian gas in Rubles in the very same week German Chancellor Olaf Scholz realistically opposed any immediate halting of oil imports from Russia.

Meanwhile, by May 12, the headlines revealed that Russian oil revenues had increased YoY by 50% despite the Western “boycott.”

An equally realistic Japan, like Germany, will take its time to phase-out its dependence on Russian energy, as it, like Germany, recognizes that an immediate G-7 boycott of Russian oil and gas amounts to little more than an energy suicide pact.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold As Cheap Today As In 1971 At $35

May 19, 2022

GOLD AS CHEAP TODAY AS IN 1971 AT $35

“Specie (gold and silver coin) is the most perfect medium because it will preserve its own level, because having intrinsic and universal value, it can never die in our hands, and it is the surest resource of reliance in time of war.” – Thomas Jefferson

Since no current President or Prime Minister nor any Central Bank Chairman understands what money is or the relevance of gold, we turn above back to history and Thomas Jefferson, America’s third president for a proper definition.

Jefferson also understood that “Paper is Poverty, It is only the Ghost of Money, and not Money itself.”

As the world economy goes towards an inflationary depression exacerbated not only by epic debts and deficits but now also by war, the significance of gold takes on a whole different dimension.

So let’s dissect Jefferson’s statement:

“(GOLD) Will preserve its own level”

Gold is Constant Purchasing Power. As such, gold doesn’t go up in real terms. An ounce of gold today buys a good suit for a man just like it did in Roman times.

The graph below shows gold as constant purchasing power at the 100 line whilst all the currencies are crashing to the bottom.

All currencies are continuing to lose value against real money although it never takes place in a straight line. With higher interest rates & inflation, higher deficits & debts, poverty, cost of wars and increasing pressures in the financial system, the currency debasement will now accelerate.

Gold is not an investment. Gold is eternal money. As such gold maintains its REAL value whereas paper money loses all its value over time. For 5000 years gold has outlived all other forms of money including paper money.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

There is Going to Be a New World Disorder

April 8, 2022

THERE IS GOING TO BE A NEW WORLD DISORDER

“There is gonna be a new world order out there and we’ve gotta lead it!
And we gotta unite the rest of the world in doing it!”

That is what Biden proclaimed in a recent speech.

But since Biden has a tendency to get his speeches wrong, what he meant to say was:

“There is gonna be a new world DIS-order out there and we’ve gotta lead it!

Sadly, as the world has heard in many speeches by the US president, he hasn’t got a clue that his “empire” is collapsing around him.

But regrettably for Biden, the US isn’t an empire at all but a bankrupt nation without leadership. But even worse, the US has just in a final act of desperation not just shot itself in the foot but in the head.

CONSEQUENCES

Very few, if any, of today’s world leaders understand the consequences of their actions and clearly not Biden.

As the world is experiencing the end of an economic era, we are getting the leaders that we deserve and thus the appropriate ones to take the world to Armageddon.

So the world is now entering the final battle, a battle with totally incompetent heads of state which will lead to everyone losing.

The route to Armageddon will be disastrous for the world. Distressed leaders will take calamitous actions, exacerbating not only their own country’s problem, but also the rest of the world’s.

And that is exactly what we are seeing now with the worst possible concoction of debt deficits, currency debasement and decadence. The consequences were of course always predictable based on history. But no leader in the current era is a real student of history. And that is why the world is in such a mess.

HYPERINFLATION FOLLOWED BY A DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Global Monetary & Commodity Inferno of Nuclear Proportions

March 11, 2022

A GLOBAL MONETARY & COMMODITY INFERNO OF NUCLEAR PROPORTIONS

When the sh-t hits the global fan, it often does it at the optimal time for the maximum amount of damage and with the worst kind of sh-t to soil the world.

For years I have been clear that the world is reaching the end of an economic, financial and monetary era which will affect mankind catastrophically for decades.

The world will obviously blame Putin for the catastrophe which will hit every corner of our planet. But we must remember that neither Putin nor Covid is the reason for the economic cataclysm that we are now approaching.

These events are catalysts which will have a major effect because they are hitting a gigantic debt bubble of a magnitude that has never been seen before in history. And it obviously takes very little to prick this epic bubble.

What is unequivocal is that all currencies will finish the 100+ year fall to ZERO in the next few years. It is also crystal clear that all the asset bubbles – stocks, bonds and property – will implode at the same time leading to a long and deep depression.

We had the warning in 2006-9 but central banks ignored it and just added new worthless debt to existing worthless debt to create worthless debt squared – an obvious recipe for disaster.

So as is often typical for the end of an economic era, the catalyst is totally unexpected and worse than anyone could have forecast.

WAR CYCLES

Yes, I and a few others have pointed out that we are in a war cycle currently, and recent events have clearly confirmed this and hit the world with a vengeance.

Just as nobody paid any serious attention to the warning that the Great Financial Crisis in 2006-9 gave the world, few people have taken Putin’s warnings seriously since the 2014 Maidan revolution in Ukraine.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Coming Market Madness Could Take 70 Years to Recover

January 13, 2022

COMING MARKET MADNESS COULD TAKE 70 YEARS TO RECOVER

Cervantes famous classic novel Don Quixote can in simple terms be described as a fight for liberty and freedom against oppression and against the state. This book is from 1605 and considered to be one of the best books ever written.

In the midst of market madness, risk doesn’t exist because lunatics neither see, nor worry about risk. And still, 2022 will be more about risk and survival than anything else. So I will obviously talk more about “The Triumph of Survival” which I discussed in a recent piece.

“When life itself seems lunatic, who knows where madness lies.” – Don Quixote

The year 2022 will most likely be the culmination of risk. An epic risk moment in history that very few investors will see until it is too late as they expect to be saved yet another time by the Fed and other central banks.

And why should anyone believe that 2022 will be different from any year since 2009 when this bull market started? Few investors are superstitious and therefore won’t see that 13 spectacular years in stocks and other asset markets might signify an end to the epic super bubble.

The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2006-9 was never repaired. Central bankers and governments patched Humpty up with glue and tape in the form of printed trillions of dollars, euro, yen etc. But poor Humpty Dumpty was fatally injured and the intensive care he received would only give him a temporary reprieve.

When the GFC started in 2006, global debt was $120 trillion. Today we are at $300t, rising to potentially $3 quadrillion when the debt and derivative bubble finally first explodes and then implodes as I explained in my previous article.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Chaos and the Triumph of Survival

December 26, 2021

CHAOS AND THE TRIUMPH OF SURVIVAL

One of the most horrifying works of art is Bruegel’s “The Triumph of Death” painted in 1562. The painting depicts the end of life on earth.

I sincerely hope that this is not what the world will literally look like in the next decade or two but metaphorically this is not an unlikely depiction of the chaos that could hit us all.

For a detailed description of the grim painting see here

The Black Death plague of the 14^th century, which killed up to half of the world’s population, clearly had a major influence on the painter.

The moral message is that when chaos hits, the destruction will affect everyone, rich and poor, young and old. No one will escape by power or devotion.

The financial, economic and moral devastation which is about to hit the world will for more than 99.5% of the people come out of the blue like a flash from a clear sky.

For most people, coming events will thus be like the definition of the word CHAOS: “A state of total confusion and disorder”.

CHAOS NUMBER 1: COVID

Talking about disorder, just like the Black Death that inspired Bruegel’s painting, the world is now facing a global pandemic. But rather than the nearer 50% of global population that perished in the mid 1300s, today we are looking at total deaths from the current pandemic of 0.06% of the world population! And even that figure might be overestimated due to the classification rules applied.

For that minuscule percentage the world has now been paralysed for the third year soon.

There are lockdowns, quarantines, compulsory vaccines with unlined boosters, covid passports, closed schools, closed offices, major industries like leisure haemorrhaging, airlines going bankrupt, shortages of labour, components, products, closed borders, and for the few people who dare to and can travel across borders, more bureaucracy, paperwork and tests than in a police state…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fear and Inflation — The Timeless Policy Tools of Discredited Systems

December 12, 2021

Fear and Inflation — The Timeless Policy Tools of Discredited Systems

If you’re wondering why the media, markets and mandates are making less sense despite a constant flow of hard facts contradicting their message, it’s critical to watch what is done rather than said by the policy makers behind the fear and inflation “new normal.”

The Latest Fed-Speak Translation: From “Transitory” to “Persistent” Inflation

To the extent there’s anything exciting about a cornered Jerome Powell, he was at least able to drop some bombshells at his November 30^th meeting before Congress, including a truly cutting-edge observation and fear that inflation forces are “more persistent” and that it’s now time to retire the word “transitory” regarding the same.

Well, Jerome, we could have told you that long, long ago, but this, of course, is no shocker…

More Taper-Talk (Distraction)

Perhaps more “exciting” was his not-so-subtle announcement that the Fed plans to begin a discussion at its next meeting to accelerate the Fed taper by a few months.

Hmmm…

Despite the fact that any Fed Taper will in substance be a “non-taper” given backdoor liquidity tricks from the Standing Rep Facility and FIMA swap lines, the optics of such continued taper-talk will be negative for almost all assets save for the USD, the VIX trade, so-called “safe-haven” Treasuries and possibly gold.

Bitcoin’s Troubles

Needless to say, BTC didn’t respond too well, dropping by 20% in the wake of Powell’s double-speak; as of this writing, it rose by 9% in less than 24 hours.

Such dramatic price swings, in our opinion, confirm that cryptos (despite “consolidation” and “adoption” pains) will never be stores of value but rather volatile (and yes, exciting) speculation assets—though we know the crypto circles (who will likely also ignore recent warnings [raised by Jintao Ding] of quantum hacker risks) will strongly disagree.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Evil is the Root of All Fiat Money

December 4, 2021

EVIL IS THE ROOT OF ALL FIAT MONEY

“So you think that money is the root of all evil. Have you ever asked what is the root of all money?”
-Ayn Rand

Money used to be a stable medium of exchange and a store of value but that was in the days when there were sound monetary principles, mostly backed by gold or silver.

Since 1913 and especially 1971 there is no discipline and no morals when it comes to the issuing of money as unlimited amounts of ~~fake~~ fiat money is printed at will.

In today’s fiat money world, there is only one answer to Rand’s question “What is the root of all money?”, namely:

“Evil is the root of all fiat money.”

– Egon von Greyerz

On the IMF (International Monetary Fund) website there is an article stating that “Money is something that holds its value” – Hmmm…..

The meeting of bankers and politicians on Jekyll Island in November 1910 laid the foundations for the Federal Reserve Bank. Three years later in 1913 the Fed was founded.

From that moment on, private bankers were running the US monetary system including the printing of money. But the British pound, backed by gold until 1931, was the global currency of choice until then.

CURRENCY SYSTEMS ARE EPHEMERAL

The Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 established a new currency system based on the dollar. From that time, all major currencies were pegged to the US dollar and the dollar itself was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. The dollar thus became the world’s reserve currency bolstered by big gold reserves. These were accumulated gradually from the early 1900s to the late 1940s. The US received payment in gold during WWII from its sales of arms and other supplies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Latest Treasure, Fed and BIS Reports Confirm: All Twisted Paths Lead to Gold

November 24, 2021

https://goldswitzerland.com/latest-treasury-fed-and-bis-reports-confirm-all-twisted-paths-lead-to-gold/

Gold-O-Mania is Coming

November 19, 2021

GOLD-O-MANIA IS COMING

The buoyancy of markets in recent years has lulled central bank heads into a false conviction that they had saved the world after the 2006-9 Great Financial Crisis.

But central bankers continue to navigate like drunken sailors between the evil forces of Scylla and Charybdis as in Homer’s Odyssey.

Few of the bankers have understood that printing unlimited and worthless paper money will not allow them a pass the strait of Messina without major, or more likely catastrophic, damage to the world economy.

As exuberance continues to dominate intoxicated stock market investors, they haven’t yet noticed that all is not well on the perilous seas.

Still, most markets continue to respond positively to the printing press rather than to the underlying fundamentals.

Printing presses don’t create real value, instead they create bubbles full of worthless air. But sadly intoxicated investors confuse air, which is free and has no value, with real, intrinsic values.

To take an example, what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin or BTC? How should BTC be valued?

Does the $60,000 price today reflect the real value or was the 10 cent price 10 years ago more correct?

BITCOINOMANIA

Are we today seeing Bitcoinomania similar to Tulipomania in the 1630s?

If not, can someone tell me at what price Bitcoin is fully and properly valued?

The Bitcoin aficionados will tell us that BTC is modern money and superior to any other currency. Well maybe they are right, but history must prove that. The 11 year history of Bitcoin is hardly sufficient to prove that it will fare better than any other money. We must remember that so far in history no currency has ever survived in its original form except for gold.

And the 5,000 year history of gold as money certainly makes it superior to all fiat currencies as well as cryptocurrencies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Shortages & Hyperinflation Lead to Total Misery

October 23, 2021

SHORTAGES & HYPERINFLATION LEAD TO TOTAL MISERY

At the end of major economic cycles, shortages develop in all areas of the economy. And this is what the world is experiencing today on a global basis. There is a general lack of labour, whether it is restaurant staff, truck drivers or medical personnel.

There are also shortages of raw materials, lithium (electric car batteries), semi-conductors, food, a great deal of consumer products, cardboard boxes, energy and etc, etc. The list is endless.

SHORTAGES EVERYWHERE

Everything is of course blamed on Covid but most of these shortages are due to structural problems. We have today a global system which cannot cope with the tiniest imbalances in the supply chain.

Just one small component missing could change history as the nursery rhyme below explains:

For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For want of a rider, the battle was lost.
For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

Cavalry battles are lost if there is a shortage of horseshoe nails.

The world is not just vulnerable to shortages of goods and services.

BOMBSHELLS

Bombshells could appear from anywhere. Let’s just list a few like:

Dollar collapse (and other currencies)
Stock market crash
Debt defaults, bond collapse (e.g. Evergrande)
Liquidity crisis (if money printing stops or has no effect)
Inflation leading to hyperinflation

There is a high likelihood that not just one of the above will happen in the next few years but all of them.

Because this is how empires and economic bubbles end.

The Roman Empire needed 500,000 troops to control its vast empire.

Emperor Septimius Severus (200 AD) advised his sons to “Enrich the troops with gold but no one else”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

End of the US Empire–Orwell’s 1984 Newspeak & Dirt Cheap Gold

September 12, 2021

END OF THE US EMPIRE – ORWELL’S 1984 NEWSPEAK & DIRT CHEAP GOLD

The final phase of Empires normally ends with the same signals whether it was 2000 years ago in Rome or today in the US.

One of the first signs is losing wars together with excessive debts, deficits, devaluations and decadence The US being defeated and hurriedly fleeing from Afghanistan in a few days clearly signifies the end of the US empire.

The mighty US military has in the last few decades conducted disastrous wars against very small countries with no big armies or weaponry. Vietnam, Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan come to mind but there are many more as we show below.

Brown’s University has just made a study of the US cost of wars since 9/11. They arrive at a staggering $8 trillion and the loss of 900,000 lives .

So in the last 20 years, the US has spent $8 trillion or 40% of annual GDP on conducting totally unsuccessful wars. The report also states that even after the exodus from Afghanistan the US is still involved in wars in over 80 countries.

US CURRENT WAR ACTIVITY

The cost of being involved in some kind of war activity in 85 countries will continue to cost the dying US empire dearly for decades to come.

1984 IS HERE AGAIN

Are the 2020s going to be a return to Orwell’s 1984 with Big Brother watching us everywhere?

Well, it certainly looks like many governments and the elite is leading us in that direction.

Covid has been a superb excuse for controlling the people in a number of countries. Free speech has been banned in the media and unacceptable censorship is now the rule on social media whether it relates to vaccines, climate or race.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

COVID Bailouts Have Nothing to Do With COVID

August 29, 2021

COVID Bailouts Have Nothing to Do With COVID

Below, we ask a simple question: Is the war on COVID the needed pretext for even more centralized market “performance?”

After all, who needs free markets when central bank liquidity determines price forces via endless COVID bailouts?

The trend toward centralized controls and centralized markets was in play long before COVID, but has the pandemic given the powers-that-be even more power?

As we discuss below, COVID may just be the final nail in the coffin of free market capitalism.

In this murky light, do traditional market indicators and forces even matter anymore?

Consumer Sentiment: Who Cares?

As stocks reached all-time highs in U.S. markets, consumer confidence recently saw its 7^th greatest collapse in history.

Needless to say, cadres of Wall Street spin-sellers (propaganda specialists?) are already hard at work explaining why such a disconnect between sentiment and equity valuations (i.e., price bubbles) doesn’t matter.

After all, when buckets of QE liquidity pour daily into the financial system in a COVID-induced era of unlimited-QE, today’s central-bank driven markets don’t need consumer confidence or even healthy balance sheets (from free-cash-flows to profits & earnings) to make their zombie-like climb toward 34.6 PE levels on the S&P.

In short, who needs consumer confidence (or even consumers at all), when a central bank airbag sits permanently beneath the S&P, NASDAQ and DOW?

Words Replacing Math & Facts

Over a decade ago, when the first controversial bucket of QE1 began, Bernanke promised it would be a “temporary” measure.

But bear or bull, we are fairly clear by now that words like “temporary” and “transitory” coming out of D.C. are as empty as Nixon’s promise in 1971 that decoupling from the gold standard would be equally short-lived:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Paper Gold Tail Wagging the Golden Dog

July 23, 2021

THE PAPER GOLD TAIL WAGGING THE GOLDEN DOG

Investors may hope that the biggest financial experiment and debt bubble in history will last another 100 years. And they can pray that the currency system which has lost 98% of its value in the last 50 years will last another half century.

But that would be investing on a wing and a prayer with extremely poor odds of success.

Since neither the wing nor the prayer is likely to save investors from the greatest economic and financial collapse in global history, the need for protection or insurance is vital.

We are of course looking at probabilities and not certainties when we evaluate the risk of catastrophe.

With virtually all asset markets – stocks, bonds and property – at all time highs, investors are clearly judging the risk of failure to be nearer zero.

Personally I judge the risk of a collapse of markets and the economy to be between 95% and 99%.

So a risk range from 0% to 99% is quite a spread. An actuary would probably pitch it at 1 to 5 percent risk and sell catastrophe insurance on that basis.

Financial Insurance Dirt Cheap

With both investment markets and the insurance industry evaluating risk as virtually non-existent, that is the time when insurance is really underpriced or in simple terms dirt-cheap.

So what kind of insurance are we looking at here. The conventional investment market will look at hedging financial risk in all kinds of complex financial instruments in the form of derivatives.

What the so called “experts” don’t realize is that they hedge their investments with the same instruments that created the risk in the first place, such as paper gold. This would be a real financial tautology.

Or in other words: RUBBISH IN – RUBBISH OUT.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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