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The Tragedy of Growth

THE TRAGEDY OF GROWTH To protect wellbeing and avoid ecological disaster we must abandon GDP growth and transform our economic system Critiques of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of economic progress are widespread. However ‘beyond GDP’ narratives often seek to complement the dominant indicator with other measures of progress, aiming for ‘inclusive’ or […]

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The funny-money game

The funny-money game The sense of general unease that I detect among those I meet and discuss economics and financial matters with is increasing —with good reason. Clearly, what everyone calls inflation, rising prices or more accurately currency debasement, will lead to higher interest rates, threatening markets which are unmistakably in bubble territory. The consequences […]

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The Illusion of Stability, the Inevitability of Collapse

The Illusion of Stability, the Inevitability of Collapse Beneath the illusory stability of rising GDP, the extremes of debt, leverage, stimulus and speculative frenzy required to keep the ‘phantom wealth bubble’ from imploding are all rising parabolically. Imagine being at a party celebrating the vast wealth generated in the last ten months in stocks, cryptocurrencies, […]

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The Necessary Climate Solution No-one is Talking About

The Necessary Climate Solution No-one is Talking About For all the talk of renewable energy, electric vehicles and plant-based diets, there’s a gaping hole in the way we’re trying to solve accelerating climate change. We will not stay below 2°C of warming while pursuing economic growth – yet barely anyone talks about it. Since the end of […]

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Inflation Jumped by 3.8% in Q1, “Real GDP” Rose 1.6%, Dragged Down by Record Trade Deficit and Drop in Inventories

Inflation Jumped by 3.8% in Q1, “Real GDP” Rose 1.6%, Dragged Down by Record Trade Deficit and Drop in Inventories Even the Fed’s repressed inflation measure without food and energy rose 2.3% annual rate in Q1. The US economy, as measured by inflation-adjusted GDP, grew by 1.6% in the first quarter from Q4 2020, according […]

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The Only Way Out of the Death Trap

The Only Way Out of the Death Trap I’ve said the U.S. is caught in a debt death trap. Monetary policy won’t get us out because the velocity of money, the rate at which money changes hands, is dropping. Printing more money alone will not change that. Fiscal policy won’t work either because of high […]

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The Year of the Plague in Charts: Weirdest Economy Ever

The Year of the Plague in Charts: Weirdest Economy Ever GDP fell by 3.5% in the year 2020, the worst annual decline since 1946. Trade deficit in Q4 hit new all-time worst. The size of the US economy, as measured by GDP in “current dollars” (not adjusted for inflation), fell to $20.9 trillion in the […]

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Prepare for Winter

Prepare for Winter Realism must precede optimism or the optimism will collapse as the tsunami of reality comes ashore. It’s time to prepare materially and psychologically for a winter unlike any other in our lifetimes. Here’s the view from 30,000 feet: 1. The stock market and the general zeitgeist of optimism have soared based on […]

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Aggregate green growth is a mirage: we need to take a more scientific approach to societal wellbeing

Aggregate green growth is a mirage: we need to take a more scientific approach to societal wellbeing In the spring of 2020, the new Irish government announced its desire to develop new measures of well-being and progress in Ireland. The idea was given some prominence in the Programme for Government, ‘Our Shared Future’. This is exactly […]

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No, GDP Didn’t Jump “33.1%” in Q3, But 7.4%, after Plunging 9% in Q2: Time to Kill “Annualized” Growth Rates. Imports, Powered by Stimulus, Dragged on GDP

No, GDP Didn’t Jump “33.1%” in Q3, But 7.4%, after Plunging 9% in Q2: Time to Kill “Annualized” Growth Rates. Imports, Powered by Stimulus, Dragged on GDP GDP back to Q1 2018. Worst ever “net exports.” The decline in government spending was also a drag. “GDP per Capita” bounced back only to 2017 level. The […]

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Capitalism Will Ruin the Earth By 2050, Scientists Say

Capitalism Will Ruin the Earth By 2050, Scientists Say The good news is, by cutting our consumption, there’s another way. IMAGE: GETTY IMAGES A spate of new scientific research starkly lays out the choice humankind faces in coming decades: By 2050, we could retain high levels of GDP, at the price of a world wracked by […]

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A Response to McAfee: No, the “Environmental Kuznets Curve” Won’t Save Us

A RESPONSE TO MCAFEE: NO, THE “ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE” WON’T SAVE US A number of people have asked me to respond to a piece that Andrew McAfee wrote for Wired, promoting his book, which claims that rich countries – and specifically the United States – have accomplished the miracle of “green growth” and “dematerialization”, absolutely […]

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Is the Green Deal a card shuffle trick?

Is the Green Deal a card shuffle trick? (NOTE; this is not an analysis of the US New Green Deal, it is about the “green growth” narrative with the European Green Deal as the point of departure.) The European Green Deal is a ”growth strategy that aims to transform the EU into a fair and prosperous […]

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Nobel prize-winning economics of climate change is misleading and dangerous – here’s why

Nobel prize-winning economics of climate change is misleading and dangerous – here’s why While climate scientists warn that climate change could be catastrophic, economists such as 2018 Nobel prize winner William Nordhaus assert that it will be nowhere near as damaging. In a 2018 paper published after he was awarded the prize, Nordhaus claimed that 3°C of warming would reduce global […]

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False Bizarre Economy Renders GDP Useless (Part 1)

False Bizarre Economy Renders GDP Useless (Part 1) GDP Growth Is Akin To “Magic Illusion 101” We may be getting to the place where more people are beginning to realize the illusion created from printing and pouring trillions of dollar haphazardly into the economy can’t last. Today, consumer confidence hinges on what Washington decides to […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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