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Food Crisis of 2021 in Europe

We are staring in the face of a serious food crisis in Europe as food prices rise continuously, and with further draconian COVID measures within the EU, they are bringing the food supply chains to a standstill. Our models have been warned that this 8.6-year cyclical wave into 2024 will be one of commodity inflation due to SHORTAGES rather than speculative demand. All the indications that the world is heading for a serious food price crisis are in play. The Food Price Index (FFPI) of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) averaged 107.5 points in December 2020, an increase of 2.3 points (2.2%) compared to November 2020, which represents an increase for the seventh consecutive month.

With the exception of sugar, all sub-indices of the FFPI recorded slight gains in December, with the sub-index for vegetable oil again rising the most, followed by that for dairy products, meat, and cereals. For 2020 as a whole, the FFPI averaged 97.9 points, a three-year high, 2.9 points (3.1%) higher than in 2019, but still well below its 2011 high of 131.9 points. It is also interesting that the FFPI in 2002 was still 53.1 points. It only increased significantly from the financial crisis of 2007/08, only to then level off in the 90-point range. Since May 2020 it has increased by 18%.

Our models project that the upward trend in the FFPI will intensify going into 2024. With the coronavirus mutating, as we warned ALL viruses do, as such, we have these various strains from Africa, Brazil, UK, and even California, are inspiring politicians to use this as an opportunity to restrict the population even further. These corona measures have extended to the food supply chains, disrupting them just as we see in electronics…

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armstrong economics, food, food crisis, europe, martin armstrong, food price inflation, food shortages, supply chains,

Look to Prices, Not Official Metrics, for Inflation’s “Smoking Gun”

Look to consumer prices to see where gold and silver are headed

As worries about currency erosion and inflation abound, the question of how to measure these crucial benchmarks has become a cornerstone of the debate. The Federal Reserve’s insistence that inflation is being kept in check and below its annual targeted rate of 2% seems impossible considering the oceans of money poured into the economy. Economics 101 teaches us that, when money supply goes up without a corresponding increase in goods for sale, prices must rise. It’s virtually a law of nature.

Statements by officials have given rise to even more red flags, whether one refers to the Fed’s willingness to let inflation run rampant or former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers’s warning that the Fed would “set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation.”

But how can the average citizen know whether there has been a sudden spike in inflation, and just how quickly their purchasing power is wasting away?

FAO Food Price Index

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 116.0 points in February 2021, 2.8 points (2.4 percent) higher than in January, marking the ninth month of consecutive rise and reaching its highest level since July 2014. source

 

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birch gold group, inflation, price inflation, food price inflation, fed, us federal reserve, consumer prices

Visualizing Real Inflation – A Decade Of Grocery Prices For 30 Common Items

Over the span of 2000-2016, the amount of money spent on food by the average American household increased from $5,158 to $7,203, which is a 39.6% increase in spending.

Despite this, as Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes, for most of the U.S. population, food actually makes up a decreasing portion of their household spending mix because of rising incomes over time. Just 13.1% of income was spent on food by the average household in 2016, making it a less important cost than both housing and transportation.

That said, fluctuations in food prices can still make a major impact on the population. For lower income households, food makes up a much higher percentage of incomes at 32.6% – and how individual foods change in price can make a big difference at the dinner table.

Only prices of three items fell: chicken breasts (-6.4%), whole milk (-7.4%), and eggs (-14.9%).

However, the average price increase for all items was 22%, buoyed especially by meats like bacon (58.2%), ground beef (44.6%), top round steak (40.6%), frozen turkey (38.3%) and sirloin steak (35.2%).

THE FUTURE OF FOOD

As we’ve previously noted, technology is being applied to agriculture and food in really interesting ways – and the future of food could be very different than what we see today.

How will the grocery prices of everyday staples be affected by growth in automated vertical farms, aquaponics, in vitro meats, and artificial animal products?

With shifting consumer preferences towards more local and sustainable products, it will be interesting to revisit this data in the coming years.

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