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Duality in climate science

October 16, 2015

Duality in climate science

A commentary published in Nature Geoscience (online Oct. 2015)

Brief Abstract:
The commentary demonstrates the endemic bias prevalent amongst many of those developing emission scenarios to severely underplay the scale of the 2°C mitigation challenge. In several important respects the modelling community is self-censoring its research to conform to the dominant political and economic paradigm. Moreover, there is a widespread reluctance of many within the climate change community to speak out against unsupported assertions that an evolution of ‘business as usual’ is compatible with the IPCC’s 2°C carbon budgets. With specific reference to energy, this analysis concludes that even a slim chance of “keeping below” a 2°C rise, now demands a revolution in how we both consume and produce energy. Such a rapid and deep transition will have profound implications for the framing of contemporary society and is far removed from the rhetoric of green growth that increasingly dominates the climate change agenda.

DOI:10.1038/ngeo2559  http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2559.html

The commentary should also be available to all, including non-subscribers, via http://rdcu.be/eoQY (this may not download onto phones, iPads, etc.)
An open access and pre-edit pdf is available at: On the duality of climate scientists – pre-edit version of a submission to Nature – 2015 This pre-edit version is also copied below.

 

*****

On the duality of climate scientists:
… how integrated assessment models are hard-wired to deliver politically palatable outcomes

The value of science is undermined when we adopt questionable assumptions and fine-tune our analysis to conform to dominant political and economic sensibilities. The pervasive inclusion of speculative negative emission technologies to deliver politically palatable 2°C mitigation is but one such example. Society needs scientists to make transparent and reasoned assumptions, however uncomfortable the subsequent conclusions may be for the politics of the day.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Energy round-up: tectonic shifts

June 13, 2015

Energy round-up: tectonic shifts

Photo credit:   gnuckx

Three things you shouldn’t miss this week
  1. Chart: Is the global economy becoming less energy intensive?

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015

  1. Article: Fossil fuel divestment is rational, says former Shell chairman – Mark Moody-Stuart is also worried about the lack of industry progress in addressing climate change.
  1. Article: BP sees ‘tectonic shift’ in world energy production – Energy consumption slows dramatically as China cutback and Opec battle US shale drillers.

This week the latest edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energynoted two important trends.

  1. Renewables are still the fastest growing source of global energy

In 2014 global energy consumption growth fell to its lowest level since 1998: even better is that renewables made up 30% of that growth. While this is positive, the scale of the challenge can’t be underestimated: BP’s report shows that renewables still contribute just 3% of global primary energy.

Indeed, a new report from the IEA this week called for more policy support for the sector because the current rate of progress is not fast enough to meet the 2°C climate target. For the same reason, a group of scientists and economists led by Sir David King, former chief scientific advisor to the UK government, called for an Apollo-style mission to make renewable power cheaper than coal within a decade.

  1. Global greenhouse gas emissions growth has slowed to 0.5%

However, the emissions figures aren’t as positive as the IEA’s preliminary estimates which showed 2014 emissions stalling at 2013 levels. While it’s encouraging to see emissions growth starting to slow, we mustn’t forget that what we really need is a rapid decrease overall.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

 

Something To Consider Before Buying In To Rooftop Solar

April 21, 2015

Something To Consider Before Buying In To Rooftop Solar

Green energy has moved to the forefront of the national conversation on energy production even as oil prices sit near decade lows. The simple fact that solar power and wind power now command so much attention speaks to how the country’s views on energy have changed. But now some people are going one step further and actually looking to install enough solar panels on their homes to become energy positive – that is to generate more energy than they actually consume. Britain’s Guardian newspaper ran a recent story about this , but that story skipped over a few obvious issues. Issues that became clear to me after I recently talked to a solar company about making my home energy producing.

Producing more energy than a house consumes is very easy for some homes and essentially impossible for others. Most obviously, people in climates without a lot of sunlight will have a much more difficult time producing energy than people in sunnier climates. Even forgetting about that fact, the direction a house is facing, trees in the area, and angle of the roofline all dramatically impact the level of solar production that can be expected from a house.

Related: Saudi Price War Strategy May Blow Up In Their Face

Energy producing homes rely on creating large amounts of solar energy, while consuming relatively little energy. The consumption side of that equation is fairly straightforward and uncontroversial – having thick insulation and energy saving light bulbs are not generally a major inconvenience for most people. Unfortunately, producing solar energy requires a trade-off. For example, an individual could always produce more solar power by filling not only their roof with solar panels, but also their front yard, yet very few people want to give up their lawn for solar arrays.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

How Much Water Does The Energy Sector Use?

April 14, 2015

How Much Water Does The Energy Sector Use?

Water and energy have a symbiotic relationship. Energy is needed to move water to people and businesses. Water, in turn, is necessary to produce energy.

Of course, different types of energy require varying levels of water use. Take electricity generation as an example. For the United States, electricity generationin 2014 came from the following sources: 38 percent from coal, 27 percent from natural gas, 19.5 percent from nuclear, 6 percent from hydropower, close to 7 percent from non-hydro renewables, and the remainder from a collection of smaller sources.

But those sources of electricity use water at very different rates. The chart below, using data from a new report from the U.S. Geological Survey, details how water intensive electricity generation is, measured in liters of water needed to generate one kilowatt-hour of electricity.

Related: What’s Really Behind The U.S Crude Oil Build

One significant factor that determines the ultimate volume of water a power plant needs is its cooling system. Most conventional power plants use either a “once-through” system or a cooling “tower.” A once-through system pulls water from a river or a lake, cycles the water through the power plant to help generate electricity, and then discharges it back into the environment. In contrast, a tower recirculates the water instead of discharging it. But towers end up using 30 to 70 percent more water because the water ends up being lost through evaporation, whereas the once-through system returns the water to the river or lake.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Week In Energy: Asian Energy Empire Expansion

January 11, 2015

This Week In Energy: Asian Energy Empire Expansion

This week saw WTI prices break the psychological $50 threshold, compounding trader and oil company woes further. However, recent price updates from certain shale areas in the U.S. would seem to indicate many producers arereceiving far less for their oil (as low as $34 per barrel in some cases). As the oil markets now appear to be in contango, near-term prices are cheaper than longer term futures, more and more companies are storing crude in the hopes of reaping profits later in the year once the market stabilizes. Trading firms Vitol and Trafigura as well as oil major Royal Dutch Shell have all reserved oil tankers for up to 12 months, according to Reuters. However, with OPEC digging their heels in, stating that there was “no chance” of reassessing their position prior to their June meeting and that, “Naimi made it clear: OPEC will not cut alone,”when this market stabilization will occur is anyone’s guess. While bearishness abounds amid capex cuts, increased surplus forecasts for 2015 and slow economic growth in various key economies of the world, for others, it’s hunting season.

The state oil companies of major Asian players are, at present, replete with cash and see the coming year as an opportunity to snap up assets around the globe on the cheap. The Oil And Natural Gas Company of India (ONGC) is predicting crude prices to stay at around current levels for 10 months. This provides a once-in-a-decade opportunity to pick off debt-laden exploration companies in Africa, Latin America as well as North America. Competition is rife among Asian state oil companies with India, China, Malaysia and Thailand all looking to expand amid the current oil crisis. ‘‘The current oil and gas prices offer a new opportunity for us to leap-frog our growth trajectory,” ONGC’s Narendra KumarVerma said in an interview. ONGC is predicted to have a budget of around $4 billion to splurge on assets. However, this is dwarfed by China’s PetroChina Co. with an estimated budget of $12 billion. “They’re likely to scour Russia and traditional destinations including South America, Iraq and Africa,”said Shi Yan, an analyst at UOB-Kay Hian Ltd. in Shanghai. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s state-owned energy company PTPertamina, purchased a 30 percent stake in US-based Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR)’s oil and gas assets in Malaysia for $2 billion last year. Expect such predatory spending to change the face of global energy production and shift dynamics eastward should oil prices continue to remain low as we move further into 2015.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Peak Oil: Same Nonsense, Different Day Pt 2 – Peak Oil Matters

October 29, 2014

Peak Oil: Same Nonsense, Different Day Pt 2 – Peak Oil Matters.

This is a follow-up to my most recent post, in which I offered a few observations on commentary attempting to debunk the concept of peak oil courtesy of this recent article by John Kemp. [Quotes here are from the Kemp article unless noted otherwise.] 

Economist James Hamilton, a professor at the University of California, recently shared areport of his which concluded that high oil prices are the new standards all of us should accept as one of the unpleasant realities of 21st Century energy supply and production. Of course, not all are inclined to accept realities which interfere their agendas.

No denier worthy of the name will of course offer up their contribution of nonsense without making certain that the “running out of oil” allegation makes its appearance, and this article honored that mandate:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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