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Greece: Greenspan predicts exit from euro inevitable
Greece: Greenspan predicts exit from euro inevitable
The former head of the US central bank, Alan Greenspan, has predicted that Greece will have to leave the eurozone.
He told the BBC he could not see who would be willing to put up more loans to bolster Greece’s struggling economy.
Greece wants to re-negotiate its bailout, but Mr Greenspan said “I don’t think it will be resolved without Greece leaving the eurozone”.
Earlier, UK Chancellor George Osborne said a Greek exit would cause “deep ructions” for Britain.
Mr Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, said: “I believe [Greece] will eventually leave. I don’t think it helps them or the rest of the eurozone – it is just a matter of time before everyone recognises that parting is the best strategy.
“The problem is that there there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of continuing, unless and until all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated – actually even just fiscally integrated won’t do it.”
Following the election in Greece of the anti-austerity Syriza party, Greek ministers have been touring European capitals trying to drum up support for a re-negotiation of its bailout terms.
However, there appears little willingness in Berlin, or at the European Central Bank, to alter the terms of its €240bn (£182bn) bailout.
Greece Gambles On “Catastrophic Armageddon” For Europe, Warns It “Only Has Weeks Of Cash Left”
Greece Gambles On “Catastrophic Armageddon” For Europe, Warns It “Only Has Weeks Of Cash Left”
One of the bigger problems facing the new, upstart Greek government, which has set before itself the lofty goal of overturning 6 years of oppressive European policies and countless generations of Greek cronyism, corruption and tax-evasion is not so much the concern about deposit outflows and bank runs – even though it most certainly will be in the next few days unless the Tsipras government finds some resolution to the dramatic standoff with Merkel and the ECB – but something far more trivial: running out of money.
Recall that two weeks into the Greek elections, Greece was rocked by a dire, if entirely underappreciated development, when its already “tax-paying challenged” population decided to completely hold off paying any taxes in advance hopes that the Tsipras government will “overturn” austerity. We wrote:
… while there will be no official confirmation whether Greece did or did not have a bank run for months, unless of course some bank keels over and dies in the interim, one thing is certain: with an increasing probability they may not have a “continuity-promoting” government in less than two weeks, Greeks tax remittances to the government, which were almost non-existent to begin with, have ground to a halt!According to a second Kathimerini report, budget revenues have slumped over the last few days as a result of the upcoming elections and taxpayers’ uncertainty about the future: “Most taxpayers have chosen to delay their payments, given that the positions of the two main parties leading the election polls are diametrically opposite: Poll leader SYRIZA promises to cancel the ENFIA and even write off bad loans, while ruling New Democracy acknowledges the difficulties but is avoiding raising issues that would generate problems and fiscal consequences.
The dwindling state revenues will not only hamper the next government’s fiscal moves, but, given that the fiscal gap will expand, also negotiations with the country’s creditors.
The tax collection mechanism appears to be largely out of action while expired debts are swelling due to taxpayers’ wait-and-see tactics and the reduction in inspections.
So for battered, depressed Europe “austerity” really meant “taxation” – it is no surprise then why so many in peripheral Europe, who for the past 7 years have not seen any benefits from Germany’s delay in reintroducing the Deutsche Mark (and keeping its export industry humming, and Deutsche Bank solvent, courtesy of the much lower Euro), hate “austerity” so much: after all there really should be no “austerity” without representation and most European voices hardly matter in a monetary “Union” where only bankers and unelected eurocrats are heard.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greece and the EU – Nothing But Political Theater?
Greece and the EU – Nothing But Political Theater?
Varoufakis’ Tour of Europe
Greece’s new finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has toured Europe, trying to drum up support for – actually, we’re not quite sure what for exactly, as the precise nature of the Greek government’s demands is currently in flux (this is a parallel to Syriza’s ever-changing pre-election statements). Essentially, he seems to be gauging what they can get away with.
Not surprisingly, France’s political leadership has announced its support for a “debt deal” in principle(whatever that means), as the spendthrift French government is so to speak an ideological partner-in-crime of Syriza. However, the French government stopped short of supporting a partial write-down of Greece’s debt (Michel Sapin: “No we will not annul, we can discuss, we can delay, we can reduce its weight, but not annul”). Similar noises have issued from Berlin and Madrid.
We have argued all along that no EU government can afford to accept such a write-down, as then the guarantees issued for Greek debt would come due and the losses would become “real” – and appear on everybody else’s budget. We imagine that every EU leader Mr. Varoufakis has spoken to so far has impressed the political necessity of “extend and pretend” on him in no uncertain terms; details may well be up for debate though.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
More euro-tragedy
More euro-tragedy
Despite the uncertainties ahead of the Greek general election, the European Central Bank (ECB) went ahead and announced quantitative easing (QE) of €60bn per month from March to at least September 2016.
What makes this interesting is the mounting evidence that QE does not bring about economic recovery. Even Jaime Caruana, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements and who is the central bankers’ central banker, has publicly expressed deep reservations about QE. However, the ECB ploughs on regardless.
The Keynesians at the ECB are unclear in their thinking. They are unable to answer Caruana’s points, dismissing non-Keynesian economic theory as “religion”, and they sweep aside the empirical evidence of Keynesian policy failures. Instead they are panicking at the spectre of too little price inflation, the continuing fall in Eurozone bank lending and now falling commodity prices. To them, it is a situation that can only be resolved by monetary stimulation of aggregate demand applied through increased government deficit spending.
This is behind the supposed solution of the ECB’s QE, most of which will involve national central banks in the euro-system propping up their own national governments’ finances.
The increased socialisation of the weaker Eurozone economies, especially those of France, Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, will inevitably lead to unnecessary economic destruction. QE always transfers wealth from savers to financial speculators and other early receivers of the new money. Somehow, the impoverishment of the working and saving masses for the benefit of the central bankers’ chosen few is meant to be good for the economy.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
ECB Threatens Athens With Bank Funding Cutoff If No Deal In One Month: February 28 Is Now D-Day For Greece
ECB Threatens Athens With Bank Funding Cutoff If No Deal In One Month: February 28 Is Now D-Day For Greece
As Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos politely puts it, “Developments since the Greek election on Sunday have moved very fast.” And indeed, so far the new Tsipras cabinet, and here we focus on the words and deeds of the new finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, has shown that the market’s greatest hope – that the status quo in Greece will continue – has been crushed into a pulp (and so have Greek stock and bond prices) especially following yesterday’s most recent comments by the finmin in which he said that Greece “does not want the $7 billion” from the Troika agreement and that it wants to “rethink the whole program”, culminating with an epic exchange with Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem in which Greece made it clear that the “constructive talks” are over.
And suddenly the Eurozone is stunned, because what had until now been its greatest carrot when it comes to dealing with Greece, has become completely useless when the impoverished, insolvent nation itself says it no longer needs a bailout, seemingly blissfully unaware of the consequences.
So earlier today the ECB’s Erikki Liikanen, tired of pleasantries and dealing with what to Europe is a completely incomprehensible and illogical stance, one which is essentially a massive defection by Greece in the European “prisoner’s dilemma”, and which while leading to a Greek financial collapse and Grexit – both prerequisites to a subsequent Greek economic recovery unburdened by the shackles of the Euro – would also unleash a European depression, came out and directly threatened Greece that it now has 1 month until the end of February to reach a deal with the Troika, or else the ECB would cut off lending to Greek banks, in the process destroying the otherwise insolvent Greek banking sector.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Draghi’s Dangerous Bet: The Perils of a Weak Euro
Draghi’s Dangerous Bet: The Perils of a Weak Euro
The recent decision by the European Central Bank to open the monetary floodgates has weakened the euro and is boosting the German economy. But the move increases the threat of turbulence on the financial markets and could trigger a currency war.
The concern could be felt everywhere at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, the annual meeting of the rich and powerful. Would the major central banks in the United States, Europe and Asia succeed in stabilizing the wobbling global economy? Or have the central bankers long since become risk factors themselves? The question was everywhere at the forum, being addressed by experts at the lecturns and by participants in the hallways.
Central banks, said Harvard University economics professor Kenneth Rogoff, are surely the greatest source of uncertainty in the eyes of the financial markets, a statement that was not disputed by others on the panel. The fact that monetary policies at central banks in the US, Europe, Japan and elsewhere are drifting apart poses a major risk for the stability of financial markets, he said.
“It’s important for the international community to work together to avoid currency wars which no one can win,” Min Zhu, deputy managing director of the IMF, told the conference.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
ECB Euro QE Won’t Succeed
ECB Euro QE Won’t Succeed
The European Central Bank (ECB) leaked the information beforehand to test the waters and this time followed through on their promise: Money printing galore in the form of 60 billion euros per month ($69 billion).
ECB president Mario Draghi has been talking about it since 2012 and now finally got the go ahead to boost the ECB’s balance sheet from a measly $2.6 trillion by at least another $1.15 trillion by September of 2016. The Fed’s balance sheet is $4.4 trillion.
What do they want to achieve with this? Inflation (ever hear anyone complain about falling prices?) and economic activity. The old argument for QE, which was to calm financial markets, is clearly not needed anymore as volatility for pretty much every asset class on the planet—apart from oil—is at an all-time low.
But are they going to succeed? And how are they going about it? Let’s look at the second question first.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Huge Madrid march in support of anti-austerity party
Tens of thousands take to the streets of Spanish capital in support of Podemos.
Tens of thousands of people have marched in Madrid in support for anti-austerity party Podemos, whose surging popularity and policies have drawn comparisons with Greece’s new Syriza rulers.
On Saturday, protesters chanted “Yes we can!” as they made their way from Madrid city hall to the central Puerta del Sol square. Podemos and its anti-austerity message have been surging in polls ahead of local, regional and national elections this year.
Podemos (“We Can”) was formed just a year ago, but produced a major shock by winning five seats in elections for the European Parliament in May.
“People are fed up with the political class,” said Antonia Fernandez, a 69-year-old pensioner from Madrid who had come to the demonstration with her family.
One protester, Fernandez, who lives with her husband on a 700-euros-a-month combined pension cheque said she used to vote for the Socialist party but had lost faith in it because of its handling of the economic crisis and its austerity policies.
“If we want to have a future, we need jobs,” she said.
Greek leftist leader Alexis Tsipras promised that five years of austerity, “humiliation and suffering” imposed by international creditors were over after his Syriza party swept to victory in a snap election on January 25.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
ECB warns Greek funding access hinges on keeping bailout
ECB warns Greek funding access hinges on keeping bailout
(Reuters) – Greek banks’ access to European Central Bank funding beyond February will depend on Athens successfully completing a final bailout review and reaching a deal on a follow-up plan with its EU/IMF lenders, the ECB said on Thursday.
The statement was the clearest warning yet that Athens cannot expect to rely on ECB funding if it reneges on its obligations under the 240 billion euro bailout program, the prospect of which has grown as Greece prepares for snap polls.
Opinion polls show leftist party Syriza poised to win the Jan. 25 election. The party has promised to cancel the austerity terms of the bailout and demand a renegotiation of debt.
Hammered by the country’s prolonged economic crisis, Greek banks have reduced their exposure to ECB funding in recent months but still depend on the central bank for liquidity.
The ECB has helped out Greek banks by exempting them from requirements on the collateral it accepts for access to funding.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Grexitology – A Mexican Standoff
Grexitology – A Mexican Standoff
The Greek Conundrum
As you can see above, we have created a new term describing deliberations regarding the possibility of a Greek default combined with an exit from the euro area. The reason why the time for the term “Grexitology” has come is that opinions on Greece’s future in the euro zone are plentiful and are covering the entire imaginable range, from “it would actually be a good thing” (getting rid of the weakest link in the euro chain) to “it won’t happen” to “it doesn’t matter” to “it will bring about the end of the world”.
In the latter category we find the always dependable Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, pronouncing imminent doom. He thinks that everybody is too complacent about the “contagion danger” in light of financial markets so far confining their negative reaction to Greek bonds and stocks instead of meting out more broad-based punishment (e.g. Spanish and Italian government bond yields have so far barely budged from recently attained all time lows). He believes that unless Spain and Italy are getting into trouble as well, the German government just doesn’t care what happens with Greece.
We don’t want to get into his views into too great detail here. Some of what he writes is surely correct in a descriptive sort of way, but there is a constant insinuation that somehow, more money printing would “fix” everything, along with a “fiscal union”. This amounts to saying that the problems caused by credit expansion and reckless spending should best be tackled by even more credit expansion and reckless spending, a view we strongly disagree with. Anyway, Pritchard concludes by saying:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Operation Helicopter: Could Free Money Help the Euro Zone?
Operation Helicopter: Could Free Money Help the Euro Zone?
It sounds at first like a crazy thought experiment: One morning, every resident of the euro zone comes home to find a check in their mailbox worth over €500 euros ($597) and possibly as much as €3,000. A gift, just like that, sent by the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt.
The scenario is less absurd than it may sound. Indeed, many serious academics and financial experts are demanding exactly that. They want ECB chief Mario Draghi to fire up the printing presses and hand out money directly to the people.
The logic behind the idea is that recipients of the money will head to the shops, helping to turn around a paralyzed economy in the common currency area. In response, companies would have to increase production and hire more workers, leading to both economic growth and a needed increase in prices because of the surge in demand.
ECB Has Lost Control
Currently, the inflation rate is barely above zero and fears of a horror deflation scenario of the kind seen during the Great Depression in the United States are haunting the euro zone. The ECB, whose main task is euro stability, has lost control.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
