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The Real Contagion Threat is Political
The Real Contagion Threat is Political The real danger to the current institutional order was just demonstrated in Sweden. While I’ve talked at length about the potential financial contagion stemming from the implosion of multiple emerging market currencies it is the growing political crisis in Europe that will shape our future. Sweden is The Land […]
“It Will Get A Lot Worse”: Global Stocks Tumble As EM Contagion Roils Markets
“It Will Get A Lot Worse”: Global Stocks Tumble As EM Contagion Roils Markets Global stocks tumbled on Wednesday, as a drop in European markets followed a broad sell-off across Asia, as rising pressure on emerging markets intensified concerns of contagion and spillover into developed markets, leading to a sea of red in world stocks. […]
“Expect More Pain”: As EM Contagion Goes Global, Wall Street Sees No Way Out
“Expect More Pain”: As EM Contagion Goes Global, Wall Street Sees No Way Out With Trump set to announce another $200BN in Chinese tariffs as soon as Thursday, sparking fears of a more acute phase of global trade wars and sending the dollar higher and US equity futures lower, the emerging market contagion vortex is […]
We Are All Lab Rats In The Largest-Ever Monetary Experiment In Human History
We Are All Lab Rats In The Largest-Ever Monetary Experiment In Human History And how do things usually work out for the rat? There are ample warning signs that another serious financial crisis is on the way. These warning signs are being soundly ignored by the majority, though. Perhaps understandably so. After 10 years of […]
Economic Contagion? Central Banks Are The Real Culprit
Economic Contagion? Central Banks Are The Real Culprit The mainstream news has been awash lately in talk over the danger of economic “contagion,” primarily due to lack of dollar liquidity in emerging markets. This lack of liquidity is being pegged as a trigger for instability in stocks, bonds and forex markets around the world, and […]
Weekly Commentary: Turkey (Nudged Over the Cliff)
Weekly Commentary: Turkey (Nudged Over the Cliff) The Turkish lira sank 13.7% in chaotic Friday trading. The lira’s 21.0% “worst week in 17 years” collapse pushed y-t-d losses to 41.1%. Turkish 10-year yields spiked to almost 21%, before retreating somewhat. After beginning the year at 155, Turkey sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spiked 166 bps […]
Canary in the Coal-MIne–Emerging Market Contagion
CANARY IN THE COAL-MINE – EMERGING MARKET CONTAGION Emerging market currencies, bonds and stocks have weakened Fears about the impact of US tariffs have been felt here most clearly The risk to Europe and Japan is significant Turkey may be the key market to watch As US interest rates continue to normalise and US tariffs […]
Emerging Market Contagion Goes Global As Fund Outflows Spike Most In Over 4 Years
Emerging Market Contagion Goes Global As Fund Outflows Spike Most In Over 4 Years Despite promises from various foreign officials that just a little more intervention and just a few more billion in bailouts from Lagarde will ‘fix’ the “short-term speculator-driven” crisis in Emerging Markets (even as Brazil admits failure), things are escalating way beyond […]
One Word: Contagion
One Word: Contagion Terrible news, I’m afraid. The trainwreck that is Italian politics has always been a hoot to watch. But this time around the implications to what happens in Rome are, as Trump would say, yuuuge. You’ve probably seen the news-flow out of Europe. Tasked with finding a suitable candidate to head a coalition […]
Global Markets Descend Into Contagious Panic As Italy Implodes
Global Markets Descend Into Contagious Panic As Italy Implodes Commenting on today’s sheer market chaos as the US and UK return from holiday, Bloomberg writes that “fixed-income markets have descended into panic amid mounting concern over the risk of Italy leaving the euro or leading to its break-up” and while Italy is suffering the biggest […]
Panic, Crisis In Italy: Dealers Pull Bids As Bonds, Stocks Crash; Euro, Deutsche Bank Tumble As Contagion Spreads
Panic, Crisis In Italy: Dealers Pull Bids As Bonds, Stocks Crash; Euro, Deutsche Bank Tumble As Contagion Spreads With UK traders returning from vacation, Italy woke up to a sheer selling panic as yesterday’s “modest” selloff mutated into a full-blown liquidation avalanche, lead by a furious repricing of the BTP curve, where 2Y yields exploded […]
Italian Bonds Tumble, Triggering Goldman “Contagion” Level As Political Crisis Erupts In Spain
Italian Bonds Tumble, Triggering Goldman “Contagion” Level As Political Crisis Erupts In Spain When it comes to the latest rout in Italian bonds, which has continued this morning sending the 10Y BTP yield beyond 2.40%, a level above which Morgan Stanley had predicted fresh BTP selling would emerge as a break would leave many bondholders, […]
Weekly Commentary: Crisis Watch
Weekly Commentary: Crisis Watch Where to begin? Contagion… The Argentine peso dropped another 5.0% this week, bringing y-t-d losses to 23.7%. The Turkish lira fell 3.9%, boosting 2018 losses to 15.4%. As notable, the Brazilian real dropped 3.7% (down 11.5% y-t-d), and the South African rand sank 4.0% (down 3.0% y-t-d). The Colombian peso fell […]
Can US Russian Sanctions Start A Financial Crisis?
Can US Russian Sanctions Start A Financial Crisis? The US sanctions against Russia are pointless and are placing the West at risk the politicians are too stupid to even comprehend. Already, some Russian companies have asked the government for liquidity injections of up to $2 billion. Even the world’s second-largest aluminum producer Rusal has asked […]
Lativa Banking Crisis Unfolding on Schedule – Will There Be a European Contagion?
Lativa Banking Crisis Unfolding on Schedule – Will There Be a European Contagion? The Latvian Financial Supervisory Authority is concerned announcing a resolution plan for the crisis bank ABLV that is threatening a contagion risk of further closures of financial institutions in the country with a predominantly foreign customer base. There is a serious […]
