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Venezuela Default Countdown Begins: After Selling Billions In Gold, Caracas Raids $467 Million In IMF Reserves
Venezuela Default Countdown Begins: After Selling Billions In Gold, Caracas Raids $467 Million In IMF Reserves
In late October, when describing Venezuela’s desperate steps to keep itself afloat for a few more months, we reported that in order to fund $3.5 billion bond payments in early November, Maduro’s government had engaged in something that is the very definition of insanity: selling the country’s sovereign (and pateiently repatriated by his deceased predecessor) gold to repay creditors.
Specifically, in the past several months, Caracas has quietly parted with 19% of its gold holdings: “Central bank financial statements posted this week on its website show monetary gold totaled 91.41 billion bolivars in January and 74.14 billion bolivars in May. At the strongest official exchange rate of 6.3 bolivars per U.S. dollar, which the bank uses for its financial statements, that decline would be equivalent to $2.74 billion.”
But while ridiculous, Venezuela’s decision to liquidate some of its gold is perhaps understandable under the circumstances: Venezulea relies on crude oil for 95% of its export revenue, and with prices refusing to rebound, the only question is when do all those CDS which price in a Venezuela default finally get paid.
What is even more understandable is what Venezuela should have done in the first place before dumping a fifth of its gold, but got to do eventually, namely raiding all of the IMF capital held under its name in a special SDR reserve account.
Recall that this is precisely what Greece did in July when everyone was speculating when it would default. Now its Venezuela’s turn.
The details: Reuters reports that Venezuela withdrew some $467 million from an IMF holding account in October, according to information posted on the fund’s web-site, as the OPEC nation seeks to improve the liquidity of its reserves amid low oil prices and a severe recession.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Commodity Carnage Continues Amid Fears Of Glencore Liquidation
Commodity Carnage Continues Amid Fears Of Glencore Liquidation
Despite a relatively unchanged US Dollar, commodities across the board are under significant (and seemingly coordinated) pressure this morning. It appears that the key selling began as Europe opened and the carnage in massive commodity group Glencore began to materialize. Glencore CDS is now above 700bps (up 154bps today) and stocks down almost 30% today…
Commodities being sold systemically despite a lack of FX-driven impact…
And even more worrying, Bank counterparty risk is re-soaring…
Charts: Bloomberg
Global Markets Turmoil After China Extends Currency War To 2nd Day – Devalues Yuan To 4 Year Lows
Global Markets Turmoil After China Extends Currency War To 2nd Day – Devalues Yuan To 4 Year Lows
Chinese stocks opened lower, extending yesterday’s losses, after The PBOC weakened its Yuan FIX dramatically for the 2nd consecutive day(from 6.1162 Monday to 6.2298 last night to 6.3306). Offshore Yuan fell another 9 handles against the USD after China closed but was hovering at 6.40 as the market opens (now at 11 hnadles weaker at 6.51). Bear in mind the utter devastation in Chinese credit markets that data showed occurred in July, it remains ironic that for the 3rd days in a row, Chinese margin debt balances grew. Before the real fun and games started, Chinese officials once again exclaimed that their data is real (denying any mismatches between GDP Deflator and CPI) as China CDS spiked to 2 year highs. US equity futures are tumbling, bonds bid, and gold bouncing off the initial jerk lower.
PBOC makes some comments (like last night’s)…
- *PBOC SAYS NO ECONOMIC BASIS FOR YUAN’S CONSTANT DEVALUATION
- *PBOC SAYS YUAN WON’T CONTINUOUSLY DEVALUE
- *PBOC SAYS MOVE OF YUAN REFERENCE PRICE IS NORMAL
- *CHINA YUAN MECHANISM CHANGE MAKES FIXING RATES MORE REASONABLE
And then there is this (from Xinhua):
China’s state-owned news 4-year lowsagency Xinhua said: “China is not waging a currency war; merely fixing a discrepancy.”“The central parity rate revision was designed to make the yuan more market-driven and in line with market expectations,” it said in a comment piece published on its web site.
“The lower exchange rate was just a byproduct, not the goal.”
The “one-off” adjustment has now become two… some context for the size of this move…
- *MNI: CHINA PBOC WED YUAN FIXING LOWEST SINCE OCT 11, 2012
Onshore Yuan breaks above 6.41 – trades to 4 years lows against the USD…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Brain-Drained
Brain-Drained
Venezuela: Real Wages Collapse amid Continuing Crack-Up Boom
While the crack-up boom in Venezuela continues, real wages in the country have have utterly collapsed. The bolivar is still trading close to 700 to the US dollar on the black market, and the Caracas stock index keeps making new all time highs in nominal terms almost every day. Ironically, Venezuela’s currency is called the “bolivar fuerte” (VEF), i.e. “the strong bolivar” ever since it has been “reverse split” 1 for 1,000 in January 2008.
Image via designlimbo.com
As an aside, the stock market has likewise been subject to a reverse split of 1 for 1,000 about a year ago – pre-split the index would now be trading at a cool 15.5 million points.
The black market rate of the “strong” bolivar (VEF) – 1 USD now buys nearly 700 VEF – click to enlarge.
Meanwhile, Venezuela has the highest sovereign CDS spreads in the world. Below is a chart of Venezuela’s annual default probabilities based on 5 yr. CDS spreads at a 40% recovery assumption:
Venezuela: annual sovereign default probability from 5 year CDS spreads at an assumed recovery rate of 40% (which may prove to be a generous assumption) – click to enlarge.
Venezuela’s Economy Loses its Best People
The great successes of socialism in Venezuela aren’t confined to increasing shortages of basic goods, a collapsing currency and extremely high sovereign CDS spreads.
Businesses are confronted with a mixture of sharply rising input costs and price controls and as a result are unable to pay their employees wages that can even remotely balance the sharp losses in the bolivar’s purchasing power. As Reuters reports, skilled workers have been hit the worst:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Futures Soar On Hope Central Planners Are Back In Control, China Rollercoaster Ends In The Red
Futures Soar On Hope Central Planners Are Back In Control, China Rollercoaster Ends In The Red
For the first half an hour after China opened, things looked bleak: after opening down 5%, the Shanghai Composite staged a quick relief rally, then tumbled again. And then, just around 10pm Eastern, we saw acoordinated central bank intervention stepping in to give the flailing PBOC a helping hand, driven by the BOJ but also involving NY Fed members, that sent the USDJPY soaring which in turn dragged ES and most risk assets up with it. And while Shanghai did end up closing down -1.7%, with Shenzhen 2.2% lower at the close, the final outcome was far better than what could have been, with the result being that S&P futures have gone back to doing their thing, and have wiped out all of yesterday’s losses in the levitating, zero volume, overnight session which has long become a favorite setting for central banks buying E-Minis.
As Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow comments, the majority of Asian equity indexes finished with losses but on an upbeat note, helping most European markets to start with modest gains that have increased with the morning, thanks to the aforementioned domestic and global mood stabilization. S&P futures have been positive all day other than a brief dip negative at the worst of the day’s China levels. Chinese equities opened quite weak and were down another 5% before the authorities assured the market that speculation they would withdraw from market supportive measures was misguided. This began a rally of over 6% before a mid-afternoon swoon.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China Soars Most Since 2009 After Government Threatens Short Sellers With Arrest, Global Stocks Surge
China Soars Most Since 2009 After Government Threatens Short Sellers With Arrest, Global Stocks Surge
Here is a brief sample of some of the measures the Chinese government and the PBOC have unleashed in just the past ten days to prop up the crashing market include:
- a ban on major shareholders, corporate executives, directors from selling stock for 6 months
- freezing more than half (1400 at last count per Bloomberg) of the listed companies from trading,
- blocking fund redemptions, forcing companies to invest in the market,
- halting IPOs,
- reducing equity transaction fees,
- providing daily bailouts to the margin lending authority,
- reducing margin requirements,
- boosting buybacks
- endless propaganda by Beijing Bob.
The measures are summarized below.
But it wasn’t until last night’s first official threat to “malicious” (short) sellers that they face charges (i.e., arrest), as Xinhua reported yesterday:
[Ministry of Public Security in conjunction with the recent Commission investigation of malicious short stock and stock index clues ] correspondent was informed on the 9th morning , Vice Minister of Public Security Meng Qingfeng led to the Commission , in conjunction with the recent Commission investigation of malicious short stock and stock index clues show regulatory authorities to the operation of heavy combat illegal activities.
… that the wall of Chinese intervention finally worked. For now.
And since this is all about one thing, the stock, market, it is worth noting that the Shanghai Composite Index had dropped as much as 3.8% to a 4 month low before the news that the cops were going to arrest anyone who used a wrong discount rate in their DCF, when everything suddenly took off, and the SHCOMP closed a “Dramamine required” 5.8% higher, the biggest daily increase since March 2009!
“As China beefs up its efforts to rescue the market, with even the public security ministry involved, market sentiment is recovering slightly from a panicky stage earlier,” Shenyin Wanguo analyst Qian Qimin says by phone
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Will Greek “Hope” Offset “Limit Down” Contagion From The “Frozen” China Crash
Will Greek “Hope” Offset “Limit Down” Contagion From The “Frozen” China Crash
Today’s market battle will be between those (central banks) “hoping” that a Greek deal over the weekend is finallyimminent (which on one hand looks possible after a major backpeddling by Tsipras – who may never have wanted to win the Greferendum in the first place – yesterday in Brussels and today during his speech in the Euro Parliament, but on the other will be a nearly impossible sell to Greece as any deal terms will be far harsher than the deal offered by the Troika 2 weeks ago and will have no debt reduction), and those who finally noticed that the Chinese central planners have effectively lost control.
For those who may have missed the overnight fireworks, here are some more indicative Bloomberg headlines about China:
- China’s Stocks Plunge as State Intervention Fails to Stop Rout
- China Freezes Trading in 1,300 Companies as Stock Market Tumbles
- China’s State-Owned Firms Ordered Not to Cut Share Holdings
- China’s Market Rescue Makes Matters Worse as Prices Lose Meaning
- China Ramps Up Policy Response as Panic Grips Stock Market
While pundits have been eager to downplay what is now a historic rout in Chinese risk assets, one that is matched by the depression of 2008 and which has sent the SHCOMP from up 60% for the year 3 weeks ago to barely green losing some 15 Greeces in market cap since mid-June…
… the same pundits to whom neither the oil crash nor a Grexit nor the imminent collapse in Q2 corporate revenues and GAAP EPS, or anything else matters, the reality is that the Chinese stock rout is very clearly starting to have contagion effects on the rest of the economy, crashing commodities such as crude, gold, copper, iron and virtually everything else where China has been a marginal source of demand, but leading to forced selling of anything that is not nailed down.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Collapsing CDS Market Will Lead To Global Bond Market Margin Call
Collapsing CDS Market Will Lead To Global Bond Market Margin Call
As Zero Hedge previously noted, liquidity is there when you don’t need it, and it promptly disappears once it is in demand. Consider it “cocktease capitalism.” If liquidity lasts longer than 4 hours, call the CFTC because you may be experiencing a spoof. Right now, the ultimate spoof is setting up as the credit default swap market collapses, and a global bond market margin call is just around the corner.
The most serious risk at the moment is the lack of bond market liquidity. This problem was created by the Federal Reserve. By flooding the market with liquidity, the Federal Reserve paradoxically destroyed the liquidity it sought to create. Initially, the Federal Reserve’s actions helped stem the panic selling when it stepped in as the buyer of last resort. However, the Fed is quickly becoming the buyer of first resort. The CME even has a Central Bank Incentive Program to encourage foreign central banks to buy S&P 500 futures. It’s not a stretch of the imagination to presume the Federal Reserve is buying S&P 500 futures alongside the foreign banks.
As the Fed’s balance sheet expanded ever larger, they transformed from being a mere market participant to becoming the market itself. The Federal Reserve, along with the rest of the world’s central banks, are essentially engaging in a multi-year effort to corner the global bond market. As we have seen in every case, no one has ever successfully cornered a market indefinitely. From the Hunt Brothers in the 1980 silver market to the Saudi royal family in the modern fractured oil market to the Duke brothers in the frozen concentrated orange juice market, it simply has not worked. Running a monopoly is an uphill battle that eventually results in a spectacular blowup. Why would the central banks be any different?
As Zero Hedge pointed out recently, the run on the central banks has already begun. For the first time ever, QE failed. The first casualty was the Riksbank in Sweden.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Is The CDS Market Manipulated? | Zero Hedge
Is The CDS Market Manipulated? | Zero Hedge.
Credit Event, Or Not? Is Another Market Being Manipulated? (pdf)
As investors and market participants become increasingly aware of the regulatory failures that allowed for manipulation of LIBOR, FOREX, municipal bond bidding and certain commodities markets, regulatory sources are increasingly expressing concern that they have paid too little attention to potential manipulations of an arguably larger, more systemically important and less regulated market – the CDS market as self-governed, through ‘regulatory license’, by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA).
It appears regulators are now turning their attention toward the CDS market, its problematic self-regulatory structure, the myriad of conflicts of interest, the potential avenues for manipulation by large dealers and the opaque and potentially self-serving manner in which determinations of “credit events” are privately decided by ISDA’s Determinations Committees (DCs). A growing volume of news stories, the publication of several new academic papers, the reversal of Dodd-Frank’s “Push-Out” rule which would have forced banks to move their derivatives out of the depository, and the DCs’ handling of several recent questions have only served to increase regulatory concerns and cause some to point out numerous similarities between the various manipulation scandals, the possibility of manipulations in the CDS market and the implications to the global economy.
Venezuela “Boosts” Reserves With Rocks, Other “Easily Converted To Cash” Stuff; Suffers Major Blackout | Zero Hedge
With its bonds trading at 50% of face value, CDS implying an 84% chance of default, a black-market FX rate that signals massive devaluation is likely, and a teetering-on-the-brink of social unrest population entirely dependent on President Maduro’s generosity (and the military junta), it is perhaps not entirely surprising that they are trying any trick in the book to bolster reserves. The Venezuelan Central Bank issued a statement today (akin to Europe’s hookers-and-blow GDP adjustment) that enables them to count a whole new set of ‘assets’ as potential international reserves including “stones” and “precious metals held in their vaults on behalf of foreign financial institutions.” Hey presto… new reserves.
Risk is rising…
And Reserves are sliding
So make up some new ones…As Bloomberg reports, Central bank sends e-mailed statement explaining parts of new central bank law issued by President Nicolas Maduro.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
