Home » Posts tagged 'borrowing' (Page 2)

Tag Archives: borrowing

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

Foreigners Are Dumping U.S. Debt At A Record Pace And Our $20 Trillion National Debt Is Poised To Become A Major Crisis

January 23, 2017

Foreigners Are Dumping U.S. Debt At A Record Pace And Our $20 Trillion National Debt Is Poised To Become A Major Crisis

Dollar Spiral - Public DomainWhile most of the country has been focused on the inauguration of Donald Trump, a very real crisis has been brewing behind the scenes. Foreigners are dumping U.S. debt at a faster rate than we have ever seen before, and U.S. Treasury yields have been rising. This is potentially a massive problem, because our entire debt-fueled standard of living is dependent on foreigners lending us gigantic mountains of money at ultra-low interest rates. If the average rate of interest on U.S. government debt just got back to 5 percent, which would still be below the long-term average, we would be paying out about a trillion dollars a year just in interest on the national debt. If foreigners keep dumping our debt and if Treasury yields keep climbing, a major financial implosion of historic proportions is absolutely guaranteed within the next four years.

One of the most significant aspects of the “Obama legacy” is the appalling mountain of debt that he has left behind. As I write this article, the U.S. national debt is sitting at 19.944 trillion dollars. During Obama’s eight years, a staggering 9.3 trillion dollars was added to the national debt. When you break that number down, it comes to more than a hundred million dollars every single hour of every single day while Obama was living in the White House. In just two terms, Obama added almost as much to the national debt as all of the other presidents before him combined.

What Obama and the members of Congress that cooperated with him have done to future generations of Americans is beyond criminal.

Unfortunately, hardly anyone is talking about this right now, but the consequences are about to start catching up with us in a major way.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

KKR’s Chilling Message about the “End of the Credit Cycle”

April 7, 2016

KKR’s Chilling Message about the “End of the Credit Cycle”

“Opportunities in Distressed Assets” as current investors get crushed

After seven years of “emergency” monetary policies that allowed companies to borrow cheaply even if they didn’t have the cash flow to service their debts, other than by borrowing even more, has created the beginnings of a tsunami of defaults.

The number of corporate defaults in the fourth quarter 2015 was the fifth highest on record. Three of the other four quarters were in 2009, during the Financial Crisis.

At stake? $8.2 trillion in corporate bonds outstanding, up 77% from ten years ago! On top of nearly $2 trillion in commercial and industrial loans outstanding, up over 100% from ten years ago. Debt everywhere!

Of these bonds, about $1.8 trillion are junk-rated, according to JP Morgan data. Standard & Poor’s warned that the average credit rating of US corporate borrowers, at “BB,” and thus in junk territory, hit a record low, even “below the average we recorded in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 credit crisis.”

The risks? A company with a credit rating of B- has a 1-in-10 chance of defaulting within 12 months!

In total, $4.1 trillion in bonds will mature over the next five years. If companies cannot get new funds at affordable rates, they might not be able to redeem their bonds. Even before then, some will run out of cash to make interest payments.

A bunch of these companies are outside the energy sector. They have viable businesses that throw off plenty of cash, but not enough cash to service their mountains of debts! Among them are brick-and-mortar retailers that have been bought out by private equity firms and have since been loaded up with debt. And they include over-indebted companies like iHeart Communications, Sprint, or Univsion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

German bank that almost failed now being paid to borrow money

March 10, 2016

berlinhyp-negative-interest-rates

German bank that almost failed now being paid to borrow money

The 12.5 hours spent crossing the Pacific on Qantas flight 27 feels like going through a wormhole.

The flight departs Sydney, Australia at 12:50pm and arrives to Santiago, Chile the same day at 11:20am. In other words, the plane lands 90 minutes before it departs.

When I landed yesterday, the captain came on the P.A. and said, “Ladies and Gentlemen, I have good news; if you enjoyed Wednesday March 9th, it’s still Wednesday March 9th!”

It really does feel like going back in time.

This feeling was only reinforced when I whipped out my phone and saw that German bank Berlin Hyp had just issued 500 million euros worth of debt… at negative interest.

I wondered if I really did go through a time warp, because this is exactly the same madness we saw ten years ago during the housing bubble and the subsequent financial crisis.

To explain the deal, Berlin Hyp issued bonds that yield negative 0.162% and pay no coupon.

This means that if you buy €1,000 worth of bonds, you will receive €998.38 when they mature in three years.

Granted this is a fairly small loss, but it is still a loss. And a guaranteed one.

This is supposed to be an investment… an investment, by-the-way, with a bank that almost went under in the last financial crisis.

It took a €500 billion bail-out by the German government to save its banking system.

Eight years later, people are buying this “investment” that guarantees that they will lose money.

The bank is now effectively being paid to borrow money.

We saw the consequences of this back in 2008.

During the housing bubble, banking lending standards got completely out of control to the point that they were paying people to borrow money.

At the height of the housing bubble, you could not only get a no-money down loan, but many banks would actually finance 105% of the home’s purchase price.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

If Zero Interest Rates Fixed What’s Broken, We’d Be in Paradise

February 17, 2016

If Zero Interest Rates Fixed What’s Broken, We’d Be in Paradise

Rather than fix what’s broken with the real economy, ZIRP/NIRP has added problems that only collapse can solve.

The fundamental premise of global central bank policy is simple: whatever’s broken in the economy can be fixed with zero interest rates (ZIRP). And the linear extension of this premise is equally simple: if ZIRP hasn’t fixed what’s broken, then negative interest rates (NIRP) will.

Unfortunately, this simplistic policy has run aground on the shoals of reality: if zero or negative interest rates actually fixed what’s broken in the economy, we’d all be living in Paradise after seven years of zero interest rates.

The truth that cannot be spoken is that zero interest rates (ZIRP) and negative interest rates (NIRP) cannot fix what’s broken–rather, they have added monumental quantities of risk that have dragged the global financial system down to crush depth:

Crush depth, officially called collapse depth, is the submerged depth at which a submarine’s hull will collapse due to pressure. This is normally calculated; however, it is not always accurate.

Indeed, the risk that has been generated by ZIRP and NIRP cannot be calculated with any accuracy. The sources of risk arising from NIRP are well-known:

1. Zero interest rates force investors and money managers to chase yield, i.e. seek a positive return on their capital. In a world dominated by central bank ZIRP/NIRP, this requires taking on higher risk, as higher yields are a direct consequence of higher risk.

The problem is that the risk and the higher yield are asymmetric: to earn a 4% return, investors could be taking on risks an order of magnitude higher than the yield.

2. To generate fees in a ZIRP/NIRP world, lenders must loan vast sums to marginal borrowers–borrowers who would not qualify for loans in more prudent times.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Negative Interest Rates Destroying World Economy: “Doom-and-Gloom Outlook for Banks in Europe”

February 9, 2016

Negative Interest Rates Destroying World Economy: “Doom-and-Gloom Outlook for Banks in Europe”

global-reset---shadow-banking

Trying to simply hold onto the standard that you’ve got has become a new normal for financial challenges.

Equity erodes away when interest rates go negative… then everything starts to sour.

China’s economy and stock market are effectively in the toilet, or poised to further collapse the next time anything big happens in Europe or the United States, and perhaps any part of the world.

The U.S. stock market has become jumpy and prone to collapse as well, and all major markets are now global, and trip up anytime the string tied around their ankle is yanked from across the ocean. And collapsing oil prices are adding huge pressures to everything.

Now Europe banks are at the brink. Will it be enough to set off the major crisis everyone has been warning about?

Via MarketWatch:

Europe’s bank index has posted its longest weekly string of losses since 2008 […] the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index has logged six straight weeks of declines.

Lackluster profits and negative interest rates, have prompted investors to dump shares in the sector that was touted as one of the best investment ideas just a few months ago.

[…]

The negative interest rates set by the ECB means that banks effectively have to pay to have cash on their balance sheets, while at the same time getting squeezed on their net interest margins. Debt levels are already really high on the continent, which means further loan growth is expected to be low, he said.

Negative interest rates, a result of the overkill of quantitative easing at the Federal Reserve, is plenty enough rope for all involved to hang themselves. The desperate and poor will fall as a result of borrowing too much on easy credit, and the richer and better off will fall as a result of declining returns and falling standards for income.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Wall Street Ponzi At Work——The Stock Pumping Swindle Behind Four Retail Zombies

August 18, 2015

The Wall Street Ponzi At Work——The Stock Pumping Swindle Behind Four Retail Zombies

In the nearby column Jim Quinn debunks Wall Street’s latest claim that the American consumer is bounding back. He points out that on an inflation-adjusted basis retail sales are barely higher than they were a year ago, and, for that matter, are still only 4% greater in real terms than they were way back in November 2007.

That’s right. Nearly eight years and $3.5 trillion of Fed money printing later, yet the vaunted American consumer is struggling to stay above the flat line, not shopping up a storm.

And there is no mystery as to why. After a 40-year borrowing spree culminating in the final mortgage credit blow-off on the eve of the great financial crisis, the US household sector had reached peak debt. It was tapped out with $13 trillion of mortgages, credit cards, auto, student and other loans —–a colossal financial burden that amounted to nearly 220% of wage and salary income or nearly triple the leverage ratio that had prevailed before 1971.

Household Leverage Ratio - Click to enlarge

So, as is evident from the graph above, we are now in a completely different economic ball game than the consumer debt binge cycle that culminated in 2008. Households are deleveraging out of necessity, and that means that consumer spending is tethered to the tepid growth of national output and wage income.

Yet sell side economists and the financial press are so desperate for factoids that confirm the Keynesian “recovery” narrative——that is, the false claim that the US economy has been successfully lifted out of a growth rut by mega-injections of fiscal and monetary “stimulus”—— that they get just plain giddy about Washington’s seasonally maladjusted, endlessly revised monthly data squiggles.

Thus, in response to the 0.6% gain in July retail sales, The Wall Street Journal’s headline proclaimed, “In a Show of Confidence, Americans Boost Spending”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

When Exactly Will the Fed Launch QE4?

April 29, 2015

When Exactly Will the Fed Launch QE4?

Money From Nowhere

On Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at record highs. It’s the first time both indexes have done so since December 31, 1999. Why such optimism? High profits, you say. But where do profits come from?

Households have less money to spend than they did 15 years ago. And companies cannot make money just by selling things to each other. The only explanation is that customers – including the US government – continue to borrow and spend.

Corporations borrow money to buy their own shares. Consumers borrow to buy products. Either way, the money comes “out of nowhere” and falls on balance sheets like manna from heaven.

the-us-federal-reserve-board-building-susan-candelarioThe great money temple, from whence fresh pronouncements shall issue today. How long before it floods us with fresh money again?

Photo credit: Susan Candelario

The Limits of Debt

US households appeared to reach “peak debt” in 2007. Now, the corporate and government sectors – not to mention students and auto buyers – are pulling up to their maximum debt limits, too.

Household debtCredit to US households and non-profits stood at $13.384 trillion as of March 18 2015 – still below the 2007 peak and declining in relative terms – click to enlarge.

“Everybody – including every corporation and government – has a capacity limit for debt,” says Swiss money manager Felix Zulauf. “Once they reach capacity, they stop buying. Then the additional sales turn to additional inventories, employees turn to jobless statistics, and profits turn to losses.”

Maybe the cycle will reverse soon. Maybe it won’t. But US corporate profits – already at record highs – can’t go much higher unless: (a) wages rise, (b) consumer borrowing rises or (c) government borrowing rises. None of which looks likely.

 

 

Ten Wonderful Things I’m Grateful For (Irony Alert)

April 21, 2015

Ten Wonderful Things I’m Grateful For (Irony Alert)

Being grateful boosts your happiness. Ten wonderful things I’m grateful for.

Since every volume on the nearly endless shelf of pop psychology self-help books recommends working up some gratitude as the key to happiness, I’ve conjured up a list of what I’m grateful for. (Please turn your irony setting on.)

1. I’m grateful that our choice of president has been reduced to two equally detestable dynasties or their proxies. This greatly simplifies the process of selecting a warmongering figurehead for the Empire and its bankers.

2. I’m grateful that I can watch a full spectrum of entertainment, ranging from depraved to dreadfully unfunnyon any device at anytime. This white noise helps block out any troubling clarity of thought or urge to ask what I might feel if I wasn’t constantly distracted.

3. I’m grateful that there are so many opportunities to borrow money, because if I couldn’t borrow more, I might miss an astounding opportunity to consume more of something I don’t really need.

4. I’m grateful that every food item in the store now contains sugar in one form or another, or a sugar substitute. This simplifies the process of maintaining my addiction to sugar, as all I need to do is eat anything produced by Corporate America’s food sector.

5. I’m grateful I live in a country where the government can trample on the rights of its citizens behind a thin veil of legitimacy. After all, what terrible thing might happen if the government couldn’t arrest those horrible people tearing up their front yard lawn to plant a vegetable garden?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Paul Krugman is wrong about the UK and borrowing

March 23, 2015

Paul Krugman is wrong about the UK and borrowing

Paul Krugman once did something or other quite good on the economics of trade, winning him the Nobel Prize. He also wrote some rather good stuff in the 1990s about the euro and about how Japan might escape its then-malaise. Quite a lot of orthodox economists were (and remain) fans of his writings on these topics. But regarding his analysis of government deficit reduction programmes and the options European governments in particular have had – and more specifically about how, regardless of how much they might have been borrowing they should always borrow more…not so much.

Krugman’s latest sally into European politico-economics is to bewail the state of “Britain’s Terrible, No-Good Economic Discourse” in the run-up to the General Election. He tells his unfortunate American readers that “economic discourse in Britain is dominated by a misleading fixation on budget deficits” and that “media organizations routinely present as fact propositions that are contentious if not just plain wrong”.

US readers should be aware that his “analysis” drifts between being contrary to the facts and being nonsense. Let’s start with the stuff he says that is contrary to the facts. Setting aside for now whether such a fixation would be “misleading”, economic discourse in Britain simply isn’t dominated by a fixation with government budget deficits.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Post navigation

Newer posts →

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress