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Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras never expected to win Sunday’s referendum. He is now trapped and hurtling towards Grexit

Like a tragedy from Euripides, the long struggle between Greece and Europe’s creditor powers is reaching a cataclysmic end that nobody planned, nobody seems able to escape, and that threatens to shatter the greater European order in the process.

Greek premier Alexis Tsipras never expected to win Sunday’s referendum on EMU bail-out terms, let alone to preside over a blazing national revolt against foreign control.

He called the snap vote with the expectation – and intention – of losing it. The plan was to put up a good fight, accept honourable defeat, and hand over the keys of the Maximos Mansion, leaving it to others to implement the June 25 “ultimatum” and suffer the opprobrium.

• Greece crisis live on Wednesday

This ultimatum came as a shock to the Greek cabinet. They thought they were on the cusp of a deal, bad though it was. Mr Tsipras had already made the decision to acquiesce to austerity demands, recognizing that Syriza had failed to bring about a debtors’ cartel of southern EMU states and had seriously misjudged the mood across the eurozone.

Instead they were confronted with a text from the creditors that upped the ante, demanding a rise in VAT on tourist hotels from 7pc (de facto) to 23pc at a single stroke.

Creditors insisted on further pension cuts of 1pc of GDP by next year and a phase out of welfare assistance (EKAS) for poorer pensioners, even though pensions have already been cut by 44pc.

They insisted on fiscal tightening equal to 2pc of GDP in an economy reeling from six years of depression and devastating hysteresis. They offered no debt relief. The Europeans intervened behind the scenes to suppress a report by the International Monetary Fund validating Greece’s claim that its debt is “unsustainable”. The IMF concluded that the country not only needs a 30pc haircut to restore viability, but also €52bn of fresh money to claw its way out of crisis.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Taking Full Advantage Of Greek Crisis

July 5, 2015

Russia Taking Full Advantage Of Greek Crisis

With Greece’s debt situation spiraling downwards, the European project is showing some cracks. The July 5 referendum could amount to a vote on whether or not Greece stays in the euro.

In the meantime, the turmoil offers an opportunity for Russia to advance its interests. Of course, the EU is an absolutely critical trading partner for Russia, so if the bloc starts to fray at the seams, that presents financial risks to an already struggling Russian economy. Russia’s central bank governor Elvira Nabiulllina warned in June of the brewing threat that a Greek default would have on Russia. “We do consider that scenario as one of possible risks which would increase turbulence in the financial markets in the European market, bearing in mind the fact the European Union is one of major trading partners, and we are definitely worried by it,” she said in an interview with CNBC.

With the economic fallout in mind, Russia does see strategic opportunities in growing discord within Europe. First, Russia is pushing its Turkish Stream Pipeline, a natural gas pipeline that it has proposed that would run from Russia through Turkey and link up in Greece. From there, Russian gas would travel on to the rest of Europe. Russia is vying against a separate pipeline project that would send natural gas from the Caspian Sea through Turkey and on to Europe.

In mid-June, Alexis Tsipras met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Russia and Greece signed amemorandum following the meeting to push the project forward. Russia’s energy minister Alexander Novak emphasized that Gazprom would not own the section of the pipeline on Greek territory, a crucial fact that avoids heavy antitrust scrutiny from EU regulators.

With an eye on the looming default, Russia agreed to finance the project, and Greek officials portrayed the project as economic assistance amidst its ongoing debt crisis.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greece’s PM Tsipras says country prepared to accept most bailout demands

July 1, 2015

Greece’s PM Tsipras says country prepared to accept most bailout demands

Greece became first country to miss IMF payment since Zimbabwe in 2001

Greece’s government has made new concessions in talks with its creditors, though some European officials said they were still not good enough and that a deal was nevertheless impossible before a Greek referendum on Sunday.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sent a letter Tuesday night, just hours before the country’s bailout program was due to expire, saying his government was prepared to accept creditors’ proposals made last weekend, subject to certain amendments.

The creditors did not accept Greece’s new overture, leaving the country’s bailout program to expire. But eurozone finance ministers will meet again on Wednesday to discuss the terms again. Hopes that Tsipras was softening his position — after refusing for five months the spending cuts that creditors had demanded in exchange for loans — boosted markets on Wednesday.

But German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was clear that no deal was imminent, at least not before Greece holds a popular vote on the creditors’ proposals on Sunday.

“Before a referendum, there is indeed no basis (for an agreement),” Schaeuble said.

In Athens, crowds of anxious elderly Greeks thronged banks for hours from before dawn Wednesday, struggling to be allowed to withdraw their maximum of 120 euros ($167 Cdn) for the week after the government reopened some banks to help pensioners who don’t have bank cards.

Pensioners try to get a number to enter a bank in Athens on Wednesday. About 1,000 bank branches around the country were ordered by the government to reopen Wednesday to help desperate pensioners without ATM cards cash up to 120 euros from their retirement checks. (Daniel Ochoa de Olza/Associated Press)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Greece Crisis Could Drag Oil Prices Down

June 30, 2015

How Greece Crisis Could Drag Oil Prices Down

The Greek tragedy is reaching its climax.

The discussions between Greece and its European creditors broke down over the weekend, with the two sides still at an impasse. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras balked at deeper austerity cuts to the Greek economy, cuts that are a prerequisite for further help from Berlin and Brussels.

As a result, Greece is approaching the precipice. With a massive debt payment due on June 30 to the IMF, Greece could default. The extent of the fallout is anybody’s guess, but Greece could see the value of its bonds plummet, putting its banks in crisis, and ultimately the country could be ejected from the Eurozone. The Greek government declared a bank holiday for six days in order to stop the cash exodus from the Greek financial system.

The crisis is dragging down global equity and commodity markets. Greece is not a major oil producer or consumer, so it won’t have much sway over oil markets directly. But the spillover could have two immediate effects on oil apart from supply and demand fundamentals.

First, the calamity is spooking investors who fear a broader contagion. While Europe has had several years to insulate itself from Greece’s problems, the mess is still weighing on the bloc’s economic prospects. That will likely pull down oil prices a bit.

A second effect comes in the form of currency fluctuations. Greece’s calamity, and the rising prospect that it leaves the Eurozone, will damage the value of the euro. As the euro takes a hit, the U.S. dollar looks better by comparison, both as a safe haven and as an investment vehicle. If the dollar appreciates, that will push down oil – since oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar makes it more expensive.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Good On You, Alexis Tsipras (Part 1)

June 29, 2015

Good On You, Alexis Tsipras (Part 1)

Late Friday night a solid blow was struck for sound money, free markets and limited government by a most unlikely force. Namely, the hard core statist and crypto-Marxist prime minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras. He has now set in motion a cascade of disruption that will shake the corrupt status quo to its very foundations.

And just in the nick of time, too. After 15 years of rampant money printing, falsification of financial market prices and usurpation of democratic rule, his antagonists—–the ECB, the EU superstate and the IMF—-have become a terminal threat to the very survival of the kind of liberal society of which these values are part and parcel.

In fact, the Keynesian central banking and the Brussels and IMF style bailout regime—which has become nearly universal—-eventually fosters a form of soft-core economic totalitarianism. That’s because the former first destroys honest financial markets by falsifying the price of debt. So doing, Keynesian central bankers enable governments to issue far more debt than their taxpayers and national economies can shoulder; and, at the same time, force investors and savers to desperately chase yield in a marketplace where the so-called risk free interest rate has been pegged at ridiculously low levels.

That means, in turn, that banks, bond funds and fast money traders alike take on increasing levels of unacknowledged and uncompensated risk, and that the natural checks and balances of honest financial markets are stymied and disabled. Short sellers are soon destroyed because the purpose of Keynesian central banking is to drive the price of securities to artificially high and unnatural levels. At the same time, hedge fund gamblers are able to engage in highly leveraged carry trades based on state subsidized (free) overnight money, and to purchase downside market risk insurance (“puts”) for a pittance.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greece Invokes Nuclear Option: Tsipras Calls For Referendum

June 26, 2015

Greece Invokes Nuclear Option: Tsipras Calls For Referendum

Update: Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has announced a referendum in a televised speech to the nation after another day of fractious negotiations with creditors closed without a deal.

The dramatic move comes after Athens rejected a proposal from the troika aimed at delivering some €16 billion in aid to Greece as part of an extension of the country’s second bailout program.

GREECE’S TSIPRAS SAYS CREDITORS POSED ULTIMATUM TO GOVT
GREECE’S TSIPRAS SAYS CREDITORS PROPOSALS ARE AGAINST EU RULES
TSIPRAS SAYS CREDITORS AIM TO HUMILIATE GREEK PEOPLE
TSIPRAS SAYS WILL CALL REFERENDUM ON GREEK DEAL WITH CREDITORS
TSIPRAS GREEK REFERENDUM WILL BE HELD ON JULY 5
TSIPRAS SAYS HE NOTIFIED MERKEL, DRAGHI ON REFERENDUM PLAN
TSIPRAS SAYS GREECE IS, AND WILL STAY PART OF EUROPE
TSIPRAS SAYS GREECE NEEDS TO SEND DEMOCRATIC RESPONSE TO EU

Protothema now says the Greek parliament will meet on Saturday and a referendum will be called as early as next week. Whether this is simply a last minute attempt to put pressure on EU finance ministers ahead of Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure: Tsipras is playing a dangerous game with the ECB ahead of a difficult week that could very well see the imposition of capital controls.

Troika Offers Greece Third Bailout Program, Prepares Emergency Plan If No Deal

June 26, 2015

Troika Offers Greece Third Bailout Program, Prepares Emergency Plan If No Deal

On the heels of Thursday’s failed Eurogroup meeting and heading into what is again being presented as an all or nothing, “Lehman weekend” for Greece and its creditors, reports suggest the troika has offered Greece a third bailout program:

GREEK CREDITORS OFFER EU15.5B OVER NEXT 5 MONTHS: HANDELSBLATT
ECB, IMF, EU OFFER GREECE 3RD AID PROGRAM: HANDELSBLATT
GREECE’S CREDITORS PROPOSE EU15.5B TIED TO AID DEAL: OFFICIAL

Here are the details, according to Bloomberg (citing an unnamed EU official):

EU creditor proposal foresees EU8.7b in EFSF funds: official

Creditor proposal foresees EU3.3b in SMP profits: EU official

Creditor proposal foresees EU3.5b in IMF funds: EU official

If true, this would mark a dramatic about-face for the IMF which had suggested it would not be interested in participating in a third Greek program. Similary, lawmakers in Berlin have voiced their opposition to a third bailout program for Athens as the German public has grown tired of throwing money at the Greek ‘problem.’

European finance ministers will meet again on Saturday. Angela Merkel, who met with Greek PM Alexis Tsipras and French President Francois Hollande on Friday, has indicated that a deal must be struck before the market opens on Monday. Here’s a bit of color from Reuters:

The leaders of Germany and France discussed extending Greece’s bailout programme and providing financing with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Friday on the eve of a decisive meeting of euro zone finance ministers, a French source said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The People Must Be Overthrown

June 26, 2015

The People Must Be Overthrown

Perhaps I should apologize for writing about Greece all the time. Thing is, not only have I just arrived in Athens last night (and been duly showered in ouzo), but Greece is the proverbial early harbinger of everything that’s wrong with the world (not to worry, I know that’s a hyperbole), and of everything that could be done about it.

That places a responsibility on the shoulders of Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras and his team that maybe they don’t want, and for all I know don’t deserve either. But they’re all we have, and besides, they’re all their own people have. In that sense, this is not about everything that’s wrong with the world, other than that’s the same as everything that’s wrong with Greece.

I was struck last night, talking to people here in Athens, by how much their appreciation of Tsipras, his overall composure and the way he handles the Troika talks, has increased over the past five months. They were doubtful about him before the Syriza election win; they no longer are.

Still, the negotiations are nice and all, but they’re not going anywhere, and they never will. The Troika side of the table is interested in one thing only: to humiliate Athens and force it into ultimate submission, along the lines of those photographs we’ve come to know of Abu Graibh.

Yanis Varoufakis labeled the Troika policies vis-a-vis Greece ‘fiscal waterboarding’ when he started out as finance minister, and here’s thinking he should have stuck with that image in a much more persistent and a much louder fashion.

Yes, we know, Syriza doesn’t have the mandate to take the country out of the eurozone. A daily dose of fear tactics in the domestic and international media still have Greeks, even Syriza voters, scared stiff about going it alone.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“No Deal”: Tsipras Says Creditors Did Not Accept Greek Proposal

June 24, 2015

“No Deal”: Tsipras Says Creditors Did Not Accept Greek Proposal

Who could have possibly foreseen that the IMF would throw up all over the Greek “proposal”… aside from this post here “Why The IMF Will Reject The Latest Greek Proposal In Just Two Numbers” yesterday afternoon of course. In any event, moments ago Bloomberg reported that just as we wrote here yesterday afternoon, there is no deal and that Greek PM Alexis Tsipras told his associates that creditors not accepting equivalent fiscal measures has never happened before, according to a Greek govt official, who asked not to be named in line with policy.

Creditors “not accepting parametric measures has never happened before. Neither in Ireland, nor in Portugal, nor anywhere. This strange stance can hide two scenarios; they either don’t want an agreement or serve specific interests in Greece,” the official cited Tsipras as saying.”

As a reminder, Tsipras is meeting Wednesday with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in an effort to reach a deal before Greece’s bailout expires and about 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion) in payments come due to the IMF on June 30.

Here is the man himself tweeting as much and confirming that the blame game continues:

The repeated rejection of equivalent measures by certain institutions never occurred before-neither in Ireland nor Portugal. #Greece (1/2)

6:32 AM – 24 Jun 2015

This odd stance seems to indicate that either there is no interest in an agreement or that special interests are being backed. #Greece (2/2)

6:32 AM – 24 Jun 2015

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Alexis Tsipras—-Angel Of Mercy Or “Trusty” Of The Keynesian Central Bankers’ Debt Prison?

June 23, 2015

Alexis Tsipras—-Angel Of Mercy Or “Trusty” Of The Keynesian Central Bankers’ Debt Prison?

Greece, Europe and the world are being crucified on a cross of Keynesian central banking. The latter’s two-decade long deluge of money printing and ZIRP has generated a fantastic worldwide financial bubble, and one which has accrued to just a tiny slice of mankind. That much is blindingly evident, but there’s more and it’s worse.

The present replay of high noon on Greece’s impossible mountain of debt clarifies an even greater evil. Namely, that the central bank printing presses have also utterly destroyed the fundamental requisite of fiscal democracy.

To wit, in the modern world of massive, interventionist welfare states, fiscal governance desperately needs an honest bond market. The latter is the only mechanism capable of taming the modern state’s primal urge to entitle, transfer, indulge, placate, subsidize and spend without the parallel pain of a commensurate burden of taxation.

Soaring bond yields and the fear of losing debt market access, therefore, are the one force that can cause the politicians, thieves and charlatans who man the machinery of democracy to sober-up and acknowledge the facts; and then to weigh the difficult options and tradeoffs, congeal a consensus and close the deal.

This proposition is based on experience, not theory——even though the logic of bond market discipline is unassailable. Approximately 33-years ago, in fact, I was part of a small group of White House staff who talked Ronald Reagan into the impossible. That is, into signing not only a giant tax increase bill at the dark bottom of the 1982 recession, but to actually embrace several more such measures over the course of the subsequent three years. When the dust settled, these so-called “tax grabs” took back fully 40% of his cherished and sweeping 1981 tax reduction.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Bank Holiday” Preparations Begin In Greece, Lines Form At Athens ATMs

June 20, 2015

“Bank Holiday” Preparations Begin In Greece, Lines Form At Athens ATMs

The writing has been on the wall for quite sometime.

Deposit flight from Greece’s ailing banking sector has been running north of €500 million per day this week as the threat of capital controls casts a pall over the Greek government’s efforts to reassure the public and head off a terminal bank run.

Sparking a panic has been the most powerful tool at the troika’s disposal to bring PM Alexis Tsipras to the negotiating table and force Syriza to either concede to pension cuts and a VAT hike or risk social and political upheaval in the face of dark ATMs and public protests – we said this first in February and finally even the Greek government realized just what game Europe is playing.

Until now, Greeks had taken the barrage of headlines in stride with a stoic fortitude that would impress Marcus Aurelius but now, it appears as though the ‘institutions’ might have finally broken their spirits.

Earlier today, the ECB agreed to lift the ELA cap by just €1.8 billion, far less than Greek banking officials had requested and probably just barely enough to cover Friday’s withdrawals. And so, as Europe’s “Lehman Weekend” may finally be kicking off, the ATM lines are officially forming as Greeks prepare to be ‘Cyprus’d’ and as the country stares into “template” oblivion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Economic Depression In Greece Deepens As Tsipras Prepares To Deliver ‘The Great No’

June 18, 2015

The Economic Depression In Greece Deepens As Tsipras Prepares To Deliver ‘The Great No’

As Greece plunges even deeper into economic chaos, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras says that his government is prepared to respond to the demands of the EU and the IMF with “the great no” and that his party will accept responsibility for whatever consequences follow. Despite years of intervention from the rest of Europe, Greece is a bigger economic mess today than ever. Greek GDP has shrunk by 26 percent since 2008, the national debt to GDP ratio in Greece is up to a staggering 175 percent, and the unemployment rate is up above 25 percent. Greek stocks are crashing and Greek bond yields are shooting into the stratosphere. Meanwhile, the banking system is essentially on life support at this point. 400 million euros were pulled out of Greek banks on Monday alone. No matter what happens in the coming days, many believe that it is now only a matter of time before capital controls like we saw in Cyprus are imposed.

Over the past several months, there have been endless high level meetings over in Europe regarding this Greek crisis, but none of them have fixed anything. And even Jeroen Dijsselbloem admits that the odds of anything being accomplished during the meeting of eurozone finance ministers on Thursday is “very small”…

Some officials believe Thursday’s meeting of eurozone finance ministers will be perhaps the last chance to stop Greece sliding into default and towards leaving the euro.

However the president of the so-called Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said the chance of an accord was “very small”.

And it is certainly not just Dijsselbloem that feels this way. At this point pretty much everyone is resigned to the fact that there is not going to be a deal any time soon. The following comes from Reuters…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank Of Greece Pleads For Deal, Says “Uncontrollable Crisis”, “Soaring Inflation” Coming

June 17, 2015

Bank Of Greece Pleads For Deal, Says “Uncontrollable Crisis”, “Soaring Inflation” Coming

The situation in Greece has escalated meaningfully since last week. After the IMFeffectively threw in the towel and sent its negotiating team back to Washington on Thursday, EU and Greek officials agreed to meet in Brussels over the weekend in what was billed as a last ditch effort to end a long-running impasse and salvage some manner of deal in time to allow for the disbursement of at least part of the final tranche of aid ‘due’ to Greece under its second bailout program. Talks collapsed on Sunday however as Greek PM Alexis Tsipras, under pressure from the Left Platform, refused (again) to compromise on pension reform and the VAT, which are “red lines” for both the IMF and for Syriza party hardliners.

By Monday evening it was clear that both EU officials and Syriza’s radical left were drawing up plans for capital controls and a possible euro exit with Brussels looking to Thursday’s meeting of EU finance ministers in Luxembourg for a possible breakthrough. That seems unlikely however, given that Athens is sending FinMin Yanis Varoufakis whose last Eurogroup meeting ended with his being sidelined in negotiations after putting on a performance that led his counterparts to brand him an amateur, a gambler, and a time waster. For his part, Varoufakis says no new proposal will be tabled in Luxembourg as Eurogroup meetings aren’t the place for such discussions, which is ironic because Jean-Claude Juncker said something similar not long ago when the Greeks were trying to get a deal done at the very same Eurogroup meetings.

Perhaps realizing that pinning everyone’s hopes on a Thursday breakthrough is a fool’s errand, the EU will reportedly convene a high level, emergency meeting over what we’ve suggested may be a “Lehman Weekend” for the market.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe Warns Of “State Of Emergency” As Greek Stalemate Drags On

June 15, 2015

Europe Warns Of “State Of Emergency” As Greek Stalemate Drags On

Talks between Greece and creditors collapsed on Sunday after Athens once again refused to compromise on a the pension cuts and VAT hike the troika insists are necessary if the country is to receive the final tranche of aid from its second bailout program.

We noted yesterday that the charade is hardly over as Greek PM Alexis Tsipras knows he can continue to bluff for a few more weeks. Even in the event Greece misses its June 30 payment to the IMF, Christine Lagarde would need to muster the political will to send a failure to pay notice to the IMF board, at which point Athens would be formally in default and cross acceleration rights for the country’s other creditors would trigger. But Lagarde has considerable discretion on the default notice and can delay it for at least 30 days. Between this and the fact that a critical payment to the ECB is still more than a month away, we suggested that the brinksmanship was far from over and that the new ‘deadline’ would be Thursday’s meeting of EU finance ministers in Luxembourg.

On Monday the usual back-and-forth between the IMF, Greece, and EU officials continued with IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard insisting that Greece must implement changes to pensions and the VAT in order to hit (reduced) budget surplus targets while EU creditors should reshuffle Greece’s payment schedule, reduce interest rates on the country’s debt, and, if push comes to shove, writedown Greek bonds:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Alexis Tsipras: The Bell Tolls for Europe

June 1, 2015

Alexis Tsipras: The Bell Tolls for Europe

This is a letter From Greek PM Alexis Tsipras in today’s Le Monde. I have little to add, his eloquence needs few comments at this moment. One thing is certain: the negotiations will never be the same. And neither will Europe.

Straight from the Prime Minister’s offical website: :

Alexis Tsipras: On 25th of last January, the Greek people made a courageous decision. They dared to challenge the one-way street of the Memorandum’s tough austerity, and to seek a new agreement. A new agreement that will keep the country in the Euro, with a viable economic program, without the mistakes of the past. The Greek people paid a high price for these mistakes; over the past five years the unemployment rate climbed to 28% (60% for young people), average income decreased by 40%, while according to Eurostat’s data, Greece became the EU country with the highest index of social inequality.

And the worst result: Despite badly damaging the social fabric, this Program failed to invigorate the competitiveness of the Greek economy. Public debt soared from 124% to 180% of GDP, and despite the heavy sacrifices of the people, the Greek economy remains trapped in continuous uncertainty caused by unattainable fiscal balance targets that further the vicious cycle of austerity and recession. The new Greek government’s main goal during these last four months has been to put an end to this vicious cycle, an end to this uncertainty. Doing so requires a mutually beneficial agreement that will set realistic goals regarding surpluses, while also reinstating an agenda of growth and investment. A final solution to the Greek problem is now more mature and more necessary than ever.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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