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Many countries have committed to filling large percentages of their future electricity demand with intermittent renewable energy, and to do so they will need long-term energy storage in the terawatt-hours range. But the modules they are now installing store only megawatt-hours of energy. Why are they doing this? This post concludes that they are either conveniently ignoring the long-term energy storage problem or are unaware of its magnitude and the near-impossibility of solving it.

The graphic below compares some recent Energy Matters estimates of the storage capacity needed to convert intermittent wind and solar generation into usable dispatchable generation over different lengths of time in different places. The details of the scenarios aren’t important; the key point is the enormous differences between the red bars, which show estimated future storage requirements, and the blue bars, which show existing global storage capacity (data from Wikipedia). It’s probably not an exaggeration to say that the amount of energy storage capacity needed to support a 100% renewable world exceeds installed energy storage capacity by a factor of many thousands. Another way of looking at it is that installed world battery + CAES + flywheel + thermal + other storage capacity amounts to only about 12 GWh, enough to fill global electricity demand for all of fifteen seconds. Total global storage capacity with pumped hydro added works out to about 500 only GWh, enough to fill global electricity demand for all of ten minutes.

Yet microscopic additions to installed capacity are apparently considered a cause for rejoicing. Greentechmedia recently waxed lyrical about the progress made by energy storage projects in 2015 . “Last year will likely be remembered as the year that energy storage got serious …. projects of all sizes were installed in record numbers ….” But when it goes on to list “the Biggest Energy Storage Projects Built Around the World in the Last Year” we find they’re all 98-pound weaklings:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Changing Everything

April 8, 2016

Changing Everything

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Among climate change activists, solutions usually center on a transition to renewable energy. There may be differences over whether this would be best accomplished by a carbon tax, bigger subsidies for wind and solar power, divestment from fossil fuel companies, massive demonstrations, legislative fiat or some other strategy, but the goal is generally the same: replace dirty fossil fuels with clean renewable energy. Such a transition is often given a significance that goes well beyond its immediate impact on greenhouse gas emissions: it would somehow make our exploitative relationship to Nature more environmentally sound, our relationship to each other more socially equitable. In part this is because the fossil fuel corporations – symbolized by the villainous Koch brothers – will be a relic of the past, replaced by ‘green’ corporations and entrepreneurs that display none of their predecessors’ ruthlessness and greed.

Maybe, but I have my doubts. Here in Vermont, for example, a renewable energy conference last year was titled, “Creating Prosperity and Opportunity Confronting Climate Change”. The event attracted venture capitalists, asset management companies, lawyers that represent renewable energy developers, and even a “brandthropologist” offering advice on “how to evolve Brand Vermont” in light of the climate crisis. The keynote speaker was Jigar Shah, author of Creating Climate Wealth, who pumped up the assembled crowd by telling them that switching to renewables “represents the largest wealth creation opportunity of our generation.” He added that government has a role in making that opportunity real: “policies that incentivize resource efficiency can mean scalable profits for businesses.”[1] If Shah is correct, the profit motive – in less polite company it might be called ‘greed’ – will still be around in a renewable energy future.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Blowout Week 118

April 3, 2016

Blowout Week 118

This week we focus on solar power in the United States. A report by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory has concluded that the country can fill 39% of its electricity needs with rooftop solar PV alone. And that doesn’t include the “immense potential” of ground-mounted PV units. Is an all-solar America on the horizon?

The Energy Department’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) issued a report last week that analyzed the ability of America’s roofs to host solar panels. They looked at rooftops in 128 cities across the country, analyzing buildings large and small for their suitability for hosting photovoltaic (PV) solar panels, and how much power could be generated in each location. The estimates varied by state and by region, but overall, the report found that 39 percent of the country’s energy could be generated by rooftop solar panels. “It is important to note that this report only estimates the potential from existing, suitable rooftops, and does not consider the immense potential of ground-mounted PV,” co-author Robert Margolis said. “Actual generation from PV in urban areas could exceed these estimates by installing systems on less suitable roof space, by mounting PV on canopies over open spaces such as parking lots, or by integrating PV into building facades. Further, the results are sensitive to assumptions about module performance, which are expected to continue improving over time.”

We continue with the usual eclectic mix of stories from the energy, climate and related fields, including OPEC’s trials and tribulations, another US rig count decline, Mexico’s oil and gas reserves fall, Sinopec to double gas production, Gazprom expects a record year for exports to Europe, Sunedison facing bankruptcy, the UK to get smart grids, a reprieve for Fiddler’s Ferry, a new, safer, cheaper nuclear fuel rod, storing energy on electric trains, whether climate change is good or bad for UK wine and whether it makes it immoral to have kids.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Estimating life-time costs for Renewable Energy in Europe

March 30, 2016

Estimating life-time costs for Renewable Energy in Europe

Summary

Electricity generation by using gas-fired installations is significantly cheaper than Renewables in terms of both installation capital cost and Operation and Maintenance costs, even when accounting for the cost of fuel.
The € 1.1 trillion capital costs already spent on Renewables in Europe would have been sufficient to re-equip the whole 1,000 Gigawatt European electricity generating fleet with Gas-fired power stations producing electricity for the grid effectively at ~90% capacity.

The European Renewable fleet with a nominal nameplate output of ~ 212 Gigawatts only contributes ~ 38 Gigawatts to the European Grid, a capacity percentage at about 18%.
The installation of the Renewables fleet as of 2014 has already lead to a 60 year lifetime financial commitment amounting to about €3.1 trillion: this is equivalent to the annual GDP of Germany.
60 year life-time costs of Onshore wind power range from 10 – 13 times more expensive than Gas-fired generation.
60 year life-time costs of Offshore wind power and Solar power range from 40 – 50 times more expensive than Gas-fired generation.
during the 60 year life-time Gas-fired generators have a full-time productive capacity of about 90% whereas the combined capacity figures for Renewable Energy of only about 18% is achieved across all European Renewable installations.
These notes make estimates of:
- the likely capital expenditure over 60 years
- the running costs including fuel costs, if applicable, over that time period
- the likely combined 60 year costs overall
- the ratios of Renewable financial performances compared to Gas-fired electricity generation.

Introduction

This article is concerned with the two main forms of weather-dependent Renewable Energy, Wind Power (Onshore and Offshore) and Photovoltaic solar power.

Screen Shot 2016-03-04 at 10.22.31.png

It accepts that the effective capital cost of weather-dependent Renewable installations range from 16 – 63 bn€ / Gigawatt for the electrical energy produced when their capability for productive contribution to the grid is taken into account. This compares with the installation cost of Gas-fired electricity generation of about 1bn€ / Gigawatt, produced for the grid.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oregon says yes to coal-free electricity

March 21, 2016

Oregon says yes to coal-free electricity

The Oregon legislature has adopted a first-in-the-nation plan to phase out electricity from coal, a major source of climate-changing greenhouse gases.

The state’s environmental community had been gearing up for a ballot initiative this year that would have forced the state’s utilities to abandon coal as a fuel for electricity. But negotiations between the two groups resulted in a legislative compromise–dubbed the Clean Electricity and Coal Transition Plan–that will wean the state off coal-fired electricity no later than 2030 except for one out-of-state power plant that is partly owned by an Oregon-based utility. That plant will be retired no later than 2035.

The plan also calls for an increase in the percentage of energy that electric utilities must get from renewable sources such as wind and solar from 25 percent by 2025 to 50 percent by 2040.

Coal currently provides almost 34 percent of the state’s electricity. Hydroelectric generation provides almost 43 percent. Natural gas and wind account for 13.5 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively. Regarding Oregon’s renewable energy targets, for contextCalifornia and New York have mandated the same percentage as Oregon but by 2030. Vermont has targeted 75 percent by 2032, and Hawaii has mandated 100 percent renewable energy for electricity by 2045.

The Clean Electricity and Coal Transition Plan targets the state’s two large investor-owned utilities, Pacific Power and Portland General Electric, which together provided 65 percent of all electricity to the state as of 2014 according to the Oregon Department of Energy.

Municipal utilities, cooperatives and public utility districts are not covered by the plan. These entities currently get a large portion of their electricity from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). BPA derives 83 percent of its power from federally-owned hydroelectric dams dotting the Northwest and 10 percent from nuclear power stations. BPA does not generate coal-fired electricity though a small portion of its purchased electricity may come from coal-fired plants.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

MEDEAS begins

February 25, 2016

MEDEAS begins

The European project “MEDEAS” is starting. The acronym has little to do with the mythological figure of Medea but stands for “Modeling the Energy Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraints” and it is an ambitious attempt at creating a new model that will define the future of the energy system in Europe, taking into account the physical constraints involved. This is not a new idea, it goes back to 1972, at the time of the “Limits to Growth” study. What is new is that the concepts developed at that time are re-emerging after a period of neglect and are now sponsored and financed by the European Union. A remarkable vindication of the ideas of the group of pioneers who carried out the early 1972 study and that turned out to be prophetic, beyond perhaps the expectation of even those who had developed the model.

As one of the partners of the MEDEAS project, I’ll see to cover the development of the project in the “Cassandra’s Legacy” blog. As a start, let me propose to you a post by Antonio Turiel, also involved in the project, from his blog “The Oil Crash”

The MEDEAS project begins

by Antonio Turiel

Dear readers,

Today and tomorrow (Feb 18 and 19 2016) the institute of sciences of the Seas of the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas – CSIC hosted the kick-off meeting of the MEDEAS project.

MEDEAS (acronym of Modeling the Energy Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraints” is a European project financed in the framework of the “Horizon 2020” program to finance European research. This project is coordinated by my institution, and in practice by my colleague, Jordi Solé.

From the institute of Marine Sciences, we have in this project Antonio García-Olivares, Joaquim Ballabrera, Emilio García and yours truly.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

100% Renewable Energy: What We Can Do in 10 Years

February 23, 2016

100% Renewable Energy: What We Can Do in 10 Years

It will take at least three decades to completely leave behind fossil fuels. But we can do it. And the first step is to start with the easy stuff.

If our transition to renewable energy is successful, we will achieve savings in the ongoing energy expenditures needed for economic production. We will be rewarded with a quality of life that is acceptable—and, perhaps, preferable to our current one (even though, for most Americans, material consumption will be scaled back from its current unsustainable level). We will have a much more stable climate than would otherwise be the case. And we will see greatly reduced health and environmental impacts from energy production activities.

But the transition will entail costs—not just money and regulation, but also changes in our behavior and expectations. It will probably take at least three or four decades, and will fundamentally change the way we live.

Nobody knows how to accomplish the transition in detail, because this has never been done before. Most previous energy transitions were driven by opportunity, not policy. And they were usually additive, with new energy resources piling onto old ones (we still use firewood, even though we’ve added coal, hydro, oil, natural gas, and nuclear to the mix).

Since the renewable energy revolution will require trading our currently dominant energy sources (fossil fuels) for alternative ones (mostly wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, and biomass) that have different characteristics, there are likely to be some hefty challenges along the way.

Therefore, it makes sense to start with the low-hanging fruit and with a plan in place, then revise our plan frequently as we gain practical experience. Several organizations have already formulated plans for transitioning to 100 percent renewable energy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Renewables: The Next Fracking?

February 11, 2016

Renewables: The Next Fracking?

I’d meant this week’s Archdruid Report post to return to Retrotopia, my quirky narrative exploration of ways in which going backward might actually be a step forward, and next week’s post to turn a critical eye on a common but dysfunctional habit of thinking that explains an astonishing number of the avoidable disasters of contemporary life, from anthropogenic climate change all the way to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

Still, those entertaining topics will have to wait, because something else requires a bit of immediate attention. In my new year’s predictions a little over a month ago, as my regular readers will recall, I suggested that photovoltaic solar energy would be the focus of the next big energy bubble. The first signs of that process have now begun to surface in a big way, and the sign I have in mind—the same marker that provided the first warning of previous energy bubbles—is a shift in the rhetoric surrounding renewable energy sources.

Broadly speaking, there are two groups of people who talk about renewable energy these days. The first group consists of those people who believe that of course sun and wind can replace fossil fuels and enable modern industrial society to keep on going into the far future. The second group consists of people who actually live with renewable energy on a daily basis. It’s been my repeated experience for years now that people belong to one of these groups or the other, but not to both.

As a general rule, in fact, the less direct experience a given person has living with solar and wind power, the more likely that person is to buy into the sort of green cornucopianism that insists that sun, wind, and other renewable resources can provide everyone on the planet with a middle class American lifestyle.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Renewables offer quick fix for US emissions

February 1, 2016

Renewables offer quick fix for US emissions

A wind farm sprouts alongside the Interstate 10 road near Whitewater, California
Image: Chuck Coker via Flicker

Scientists say interstate energy “highways” would allow current wind and solar technologies to deliver electricity where and when it’s needed throughout the US.

LONDON, 31 January, 2016 – The US could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation by 80% below 1990 levels within 15 years just by using renewable sources such as wind and solar energy, according to a former government research chief.

The nation could do this using only technologies available right now, and by introducing a national grid system connected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) that could get the power without loss to those places that needed it most, when they needed it.

This utopian vision – and it has been dreamed at least twice before by researchers in Delaware and in Stanford, California – comes directly from a former chief of research in a US government agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Dr Alexander MacDonald, a distinguished meteorologist, was until recently, the head of NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.

Supply and demand

He and colleagues at the University of Colorado report in Nature Climate Change that instead of factoring in fossil fuel backup, or yet-to-be-invented methods of storing electricity from wind and solar sources, they took a new look at the simple problems of supply and demand in a nation that tends to be sunny and warm in the south and windy in the north, but not always reliably so in either place.

Their reasoning was that storage technologies could only increase the cost of renewable energy, and increase the problem of reducing carbon emissions.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Nature Produces Renewable Energy–Let’s Capture It!

January 14, 2016

Ocean Waves

NATURE PRODUCES RENEWABLE ENERGY — LET’S CAPTURE IT!

Transitioning away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy is a hot topic right now. Well, natural processes harvest renewable energy all the time, and release it in excess to be recycled! When the focus is on stacking functions and transforming waste into resources, this becomes apparent–a concept we are intimate with as permaculturists.

Let’s cover some sources of renewable energy that haven’t been given as much media coverage as solar and wind have. Some of these methods can be implemented on the small scale of a single family homestead, others are more well suited for larger farms or entire urban areas and high-population density cities.

OCEAN ENERGY: MECHANICAL AND THERMAL

Capturing energy from the oceans, which provide numerous ecosystem services as it is, is a way of further stacking functions while going with, rather than against, the grain of nature’s rhythms.

Thermal energy from the heat of the sun and mechanical energy from the tides and individual waves can be captured from the ocean. This is a way of gathering energy which is already being generated, and represents permaculture principles on a larger scale.

Ocean Waves

Mechanical Energy from Tides and Waves

The rhythmic pull of the moon, along with random yet potent gusts of wind, harness the power of the tides and waves as mechanical energy. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management reports that “while ocean currents move slowly relative to typical wind speeds, they carry a great deal of energy because of the density of water. Water is more than 800 times denser than air. So for the same surface area, water moving 12 miles per hour exerts the same amount of force as a constant 110 mph wind.” While numerous concerns are still being addressed and the technology needs further development, it has potential for passively collecting energy in a way that does not poison the environment or harm marine life, if done mindfully.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Energy round-up: six predictions for 2016

January 14, 2016

Energy round-up: six predictions for 2016

Photo credit: James Russell

2015 proved to be an interesting year for energy and climate issues both globally and in the UK. Will 2016 hold more of the same?

Forecasting is a dangerous business, but here are six predictions you should keep an eye on.

1) The showdown on oil prices between Saudi Arabia and the US will intensify, and the Saudis will eventually break.

It looks like oil and gas prices are going to remain low for the foreseeable future, panicking both the oil industry in Saudi Arabia and the shale gas industry in the US.

The big question is whether Saudi Arabia can keep production high and prices low long enough to bankrupt enough of the American shale industry. The answer may come by the end of 2016 and several factors point to the Saudis breaking first.

For one, despite losses for the oil industry, low oil prices benefit many sectors in the US, especially as consumers now have more spending money in their pockets. However for Saudi Arabia, an oil-dependent economy, low prices are a clear loser.

There’s also the geopolitical dimension that will make worse Saudi Arabia’s financial problems. Saudi Arabia spends more on military spending as a percentage of GDP (11%) than any other country, is currently increasing this spending at a faster rate (21%) than any other country, and has a showdown with Iran on the horizon. To most observers, the public finances in Saudi Arabia are headed for disaster if nothing changes.

2) Renewables will set new records.

Despite low fossil fuel prices (including coal), wind and solar will set new records in 2016 for installations and generation on every continent. This is a pretty safe bet. For many markets, including the important US market, the year-to-year change in 2016 may set records too.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We are at Peak Oil now; we need very low-cost energy to fix it

December 22, 2015

We are at Peak Oil now; we need very low-cost energy to fix it

This past week, I gave a presentation to a group interested in a particular type of renewable energy–solar energy that is deployed in space, so it would provide electricity 24 hours per day. Their question was: how low does the production cost of electricity really need to be?

I gave them this two-fold answer:

1. We are hitting something similar to “Peak Oil” right now. The symptoms are the opposite of the ones that most people expected. There is a glut of supply, and prices are far below the cost of production. Many commodities besides oil are affected; these include natural gas, coal, iron ore, many metals, and many types of food. Our concern should be that low prices will bring down production, quite possibly for many commodities simultaneously. Perhaps the problem should be called “Limits to Growth,” rather than “Peak Oil,” because it is a different type of problem than most people expected.

2. The only theoretical solution would be to create a huge supply of renewable energy that would work in today’s devices. It would need to be cheap to produce and be available in the immediate future. Electricity would need to be produced for no more than four cents per kWh, and liquid fuels would need to be produced for less than $20 per barrel of oil equivalent. The low cost would need to be the result of very sparing use of resources, rather than the result of government subsidies.

Of course, we have many other problems associated with a finite world, including rising population, water limits, and climate change. For this reason, even a huge supply of very cheap renewable energy would not be a permanent solution.

This is a link to the presentation: Energy Economics Outlook. I will not attempt to explain the slides in detail.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IEA: China might have passed ‘peak coal’ in 2013

December 18, 2015

IEA: China might have passed ‘peak coal’ in 2013

China possibly saw its coal consumption peak in 2013, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The seismic shifts underway in China have global implications for both coal use and emissions.

Global coal use fell by 0.9% in 2014, the first fall this century, says the IEA’s Medium Term Coal Market Report 2015. It says demand is “likely” to fall again in 2015, echoing reports that global emissions will fall this year as coal use declines.

As a result, the IEA’s 2020 demand coal forecast is now 10% lower than its previous outlook. Even so, it sees rising demand between now and 2020, reversing the current two-year decline.

Paris perspective

Before getting into the details of the IEA’s coal market report, it’s worth noting that it was written before the Paris climate deal was agreed.

Anticipating that an agreement might be reached, however, the report lays out a series of trends likely to weigh increasingly on coal demand over the coming years.

These include the falling cost of renewables, the spread of CO2 pricing and coal taxes, the divestment movement and development banks and export credit agencies restricting coal finance.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief executive, writes in a foreword to the report that the business case for coal use is diminishing. He writes: “The window of opportunity for high-carbon sources is closing.”

A feature article for the New York Times this week looks at the mass layoffs facing China’s coal mining industry. One miner tells the paper: “There is no future in coal.”

While some reports suggest the Paris deal depressed coal stocks, views differ on its significance for fossil fuel interests. Nonetheless, it would be hard to argue coal’s prospects have improved.

With that in mind, let’s turn to the forecasts in the IEA’s medium-term coal market outlook.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Renewable Energy After COP21: Nine issues for climate leaders to think about on the journey home

December 15, 2015

Renewable Energy After COP21: Nine issues for climate leaders to think about on the journey home

Download as PDF

COP21 in Paris is over. Now it’s back to the hard work of fighting for, and implementing, the energy transition.
We all know that the transition away from fossil fuels is key to maintaining a livable planet. Several organizations have formulated proposals for transitioning to 100 percent renewable energy; some of those proposals focus on the national level, some the state level, while a few look at the global challenge. David Fridley (staff scientist of the energy analysis program at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory) and I have been working for the past few months to analyze and assess many of those proposals, and to dig deeper into energy transition issues—particularly how our use of energy will need to adapt in a ~100 percent renewable future. We have a book in the works, titled Our Renewable Future, that examines the adjustments society will have to make in the transition to new energy sources. We started this project with some general understanding of the likely constraints and opportunities in this transition; nevertheless, researching and writing Our Renewable Future has been a journey of discovery. Along the way, we identified not only technical issues requiring more attention, but also important implications for advocacy and policy. What follows is a short summary—tailored mostly to the United States—of what we’ve learned, along with some recommendations.

1. We really need a plan; no, lots of them

Germany has arguably accomplished more toward the transition than any other nation largely because it has a plan—the Energiewende. This plan targets a 60 percent reduction in all fossil fuel use (not just in the electricity sector) by 2050, achieving a 50 percent cut in overall energy use through efficiency in power generation (fossil fueled power plants entail huge losses), buildings, and transport.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Magical mathematics

December 12, 2015

Magical mathematics

Recently I got into a spot of bother on Twitter (it’s easily done) after I wrote an essay criticising an astonishingly bad newspaper article by one Leigh Phillips. The thing is, I hadn’t read his book and, silly me, I didn’t realise that you’re not supposed to criticise people’s newspaper articles until you’ve read their books. Well, now I have, and, er…it was astonishingly bad.

I know that some readers of this blog get bored by my engagements with the ecomodernists, whereas others find them interesting. So I’m going to try to keep everyone happy. I feel the need to recoup the wasted weekend I spent reading Phillips’ book by writing a few things about it, but I’m mostly going to do that elsewhere. The interesting task that Phillips sets himself, but makes a dreadful fist of tackling, is a socialist critique of left-green ‘small-is-beautiful’ relocalisation thinking. So I’m hoping to have an article about that on resilience.org soon. He also makes quite a mess of trying to critique the local food movement, a subject dear to this blog’s heart, and to be honest he’s not the only one to get in a tangle over this so I plan to write a little post about that on here soon. I’ve written a wider critique of some of the magical mathematics associated with ecomodernist thinking, including Phillips’s, which has just been published on the Statistics Views website. This post is essentially a brief summary of parts of that article, plus a foray into Mr Phillips’ enchanted world of geophagy, which I hope might be of wider interest even to people who don’t much care to follow all the twists and turns of ecomodernist tomfoolery. It falls into three parts.

Part 1: The future’s orange

…or at least it is if you believe this graph:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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