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Tag Archives: gdp
From Miracle to Cataclysm – why the commodity bust will last for years
From Miracle to Cataclysm – why the commodity bust will last for years The Chinese Jīngjì qíjī, wirtschaftswunder, keizai no kiseki, milagro económico or whatever you want to call is neither a miracle nor distinctly Chinese. A basket case like Argentine managed to pull off a similar feat, albeit with more volatility, over a 42 year timespan beginning […]
Shale Oil’s “Dirty Little Secret” Has Been Exposed
Shale Oil’s “Dirty Little Secret” Has Been Exposed On Friday, on the way to diving into Goldman’s $20 crude call, we recapped our characterization of low crude prices as a battle between the Fed and the Saudis, a battle which is now manifesting itself in budget troubles in Riyadh and a concurrent FX reserve burn. […]
Inside Ground Zero Of Canada’s Recession
Inside Ground Zero Of Canada’s Recession In the past year, we have extensively profiled the collapse of ground zero of Canada’s oil industry as a result of the plunge in the price of oil, in posts such as the following: “Canada Crude Contagion: Calgary Home Prices Drop Most In 2 Years“ “Canada’s Biggest Oil Casualty […]
What’s Coming Unglued Now in Canada?
What’s Coming Unglued Now in Canada? Canada lumbered through the first half of 2015 in a “technical recession,” Statistics Canada confirmed this week, as GDP shrank in both quarters. Among the culprits: the swooning energy sector and an investment slump. Now everybody is lining up behind the hope that a sudden acceleration will put the […]
Three Worrying Economic Trends Beyond Canada’s GDP Drop
Three Worrying Economic Trends Beyond Canada’s GDP Drop New data confirms what 79 per cent of Canadians already felt. The much anticipated quarterly GDP numbers are out, and StatsCan confirmed what 79 per cent of Canadians already felt to be the case — Canada’s economy is in decline. A drop in economic activity of 0.1 per cent in the second […]
Friday job numbers may tell tales GDP missed: Don Pittis
Friday job numbers may tell tales GDP missed: Don Pittis Stats could show if slump is over and whether there is a rebound outside the oil industry Opponents in the battle over whether the Canadian economy is collapsing or clawing its way back to recovery will get more ammunition on Friday. That’s when we learn the latest figures on job […]
Recession confirmed as Canada’s GDP shrank in 2nd quarter
Recession confirmed as Canada’s GDP shrank in 2nd quarter Canada’s economy expanded in June but declined by 0.1 per cent for the second quarter as a whole, meeting the bar of what is legally defined as a recession. The economy expanded by 0.5 per cent in June, Statistics Canada said. But that slight monthly uptick wasn’t enough […]
Biggest Crash In South Korea Exports Since 2009 Confirms Global Trade In Freefall
Biggest Crash In South Korea Exports Since 2009 Confirms Global Trade In Freefall While the market’s attention overnight was focused on China’s crumbling manufacturing and service PMI, data which was already hinted in the flash PMI reports earlier in August, the real stunner came not from China but from South Korea, which last night reported […]
Macau’s Economy Blows Up
Macau’s Economy Blows Up China’s crackdown on corruption, or at least the ostentatious display of the spoils of corruption, and its selective hunt for corrupt officials, which to some observers resembles a political purge, may or may not tamp down on actual corruption, which is what greases the wheels in the Chinese economy. But it’s […]
It Gets Even Uglier In Canada
It Gets Even Uglier In Canada The Province of Alberta, the epicenter of the Canadian oil bust, may be sliding into something much worse than a plain-vanilla recession. And it’s not exactly perking up the rest of Canada. Layoffs are already cascading through the oil patch, as companies are retrenching and adjusting to the new […]
China Entering Ugly Recession, Not Just a “Hard Landing?”
China Entering Ugly Recession, Not Just a “Hard Landing?” A “hard landing” would be tough for China. But it would still mean economic growth, if very slow growth by Chinese standards. At worst, it would mean stagnation. But now, evidence is piling up that the economy is actually shrinking. There is practically universal agreement outside official […]
That 70s show – episode 4
That 70s show – episode 4 We have shown in the previous three episodes (episode 1, 2 and 3) how the US economy structurally changed after Nixon took the US off gold, letting the Federal Reserve do what it does best. Obviously, with the “hard” anchor of the US dollar cut loose, the rest followed suit. It is telling […]
New Vehicle Sales Collapse in Canada’s Oil Patch
New Vehicle Sales Collapse in Canada’s Oil Patch Oil spills into the broader economy. Canada’s economy has split in two. The resource producing economy is deteriorating at a breath-taking pace, broadsided by collapsing commodity prices. For Canada, the most important commodity is crude oil. West Texas Intermediate has plunged below $39 a barrel, not seen […]
China Is Pushing On A String Ensemble
China Is Pushing On A String Ensemble Look, it’s very clear where I stand on China; I’ve written a lot about it. And not just recently. Nicole Foss, who fully shares my views on the topic, reminded me the other day of a piece I wrote in July 2012, named Meet China’s New Leader : Pon […]
Why the Bear of 2015 Is Different from the Bear of 2008
Why the Bear of 2015 Is Different from the Bear of 2008 Are there any conditions now that are actually better than those of 2008? It’s tempting to see similarities in last week’s global stock market mini-crash and the monumental meltdown that almost took down the Global Financial System in 2008-2009. The dizzying drop invites comparison […]
