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First the Miners, now the Banks, then Property? Going to be a Hard Landing for… Australia

First the Miners, now the Banks, then Property? Going to be a Hard Landing for… Australia

A housing market set for the mother of all corrections.

“I think it’s important that people don’t hyperventilate about these type of things.” With these words, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott tried to soothe the world’s rattled nerves today about the ongoing crash in China. Australia is heavily exposed to China, the biggest consumer of its commodity exports.

“It is not unusual to see stock market corrections,” he said about the relentlessly brutal three-month crash that has taken the Shanghai Composite down 43% so far.

“It is not unusual to see bubbles burst in particular markets and for there to be some flow-on effect in other stock markets, but the fundamentals are sound,” he said, speaking of the Chinese fundamentals, and by extension, of the Australian fundamentals that depend so much on Chinese fundamentals.

And he said this though factory activity in China shrank at the fastest rate since the Financial Crisis, other indicators are heading south, cars sales are suddenly plunging, and the People’s Bank of China started devaluating the yuan to mitigate the problem, thus further hurting Australian exports to China.

So here’s Lindsay David, founder of LF Economics in Australia, weighing in on the “sound” fundamentals in Australia.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deutsche Bank Sums It Up “The Fragility Of This Artificially Manipulated Financial System Was Finally Exposed”

Deutsche Bank Sums It Up “The Fragility Of This Artificially Manipulated Financial System Was Finally Exposed”

Today’s dose of vile tinfoil hattery magick comes straight from the bank with the cool $55 trillion or so in derivatives, Deutsche Bank:

The fragility of this artificially manipulated financial system was exposed over the last couple of days of last week. It all ended with the S&P 500 falling -3.19% on Friday – its worst day since November 9th 2011.

* * *

We’ve long felt that the only thing preventing another financial crisis has been extraordinary central bank liquidity and general interventions from the global authorities which we still expect to continue for a long while yet. So when policy changes, risks arise. The genesis of this recent sell-off has been the threat of the Fed raising rates next month, but China’s confrontational move two weeks ago and the subsequent knock-on through EM have accelerated us towards something more serious. We always thought something would get in the way of the Fed raising rates in September and we’re perhaps seeing this now. With 24 days to go until we find out, the probability of a hike has gone down to 34% from a 54% recent peak on August 9th. Having said we always thought something would come along to derail a Fed rate hike we probably should have gone underweight credit.However with trading liquidity poor and with a reasonably high desire to be long amongst investors there has to be a big move to justify the change in stance. Also with a strong possibility that the Fed will relent and that China could add more stimulus soon, there may be a small window to be short European credit. So at the moment this could be a dangerous time to sell.However if it wasn’t for expected intervention and extraordinary central bank policy we would be very bearish as the global financial system remains an artificial construct reliant on the largesse of the authorities.

So 6 years after we first said what at the time was seen as heretical “tinfoil” conspiracy theory, now everyone admits it. Almost time to take a vacation maybe…

 

“Don’t Owe. Won’t Pay.” Everything You’ve Been Told About Debt Is Wrong

“Don’t Owe. Won’t Pay.” Everything You’ve Been Told About Debt Is Wrong

With the nation’s household debt burden at $11.85 trillion, even the most modest challenges to its legitimacy have revolutionary implications.

The legitimacy of a given social order rests on the legitimacy of its debts. Even in ancient times this was so. In traditional cultures, debt in a broad sense—gifts to be reciprocated, memories of help rendered, obligations not yet fulfilled—was a glue that held society together. Everybody at one time or another owed something to someone else. Repayment of debt was inseparable from the meeting of social obligations; it resonated with the principles of fairness and gratitude.


If one debt can be nullified, maybe all of them can.


The moral associations of making good on one’s debts are still with us today, informing the logic of austerity as well as the legal code. A good country, or a good person, is supposed to make every effort to repay debts. Accordingly, if a country like Jamaica or Greece, or a municipality like Baltimore or Detroit, has insufficient revenue to make its debt payments, it is morally compelled to privatize public assets, slash pensions and salaries, liquidate natural resources, and cut public services so it can use the savings to pay creditors. Such a prescription takes for granted the legitimacy of its debts.

Today a burgeoning debt resistance movement draws from the realization that many of these debts are not fair. Most obviously unfair are loans involving illegal or deceptive practices—the kind that were rampant in the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis. From sneaky balloon interest hikes on mortgages, to loans deliberately made to unqualified borrowers, to incomprehensible financial products peddled to local governments that were kept ignorant about their risks, these practices resulted in billions of dollars of extra costs for citizens and public institutions alike.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

It Starts: Broad Retaliation Against China in Currency War

It Starts: Broad Retaliation Against China in Currency War

The biggest global “tail risk” is China’s deteriorating economy and an emerging market debt crisis, according to BofA Merrill Lynch’s monthly poll of fund managers. And 48% of them were expecting the Fed to raise rates, despite languid growth and low inflation expectations.

Hot money is already fleeing emerging markets. Higher rates in the US will drain more capital out of countries that need it the most. It will pressure emerging market currencies and further increase the likelihood of a debt crisis in countries whose governments, banks, and corporations borrow in a currency other than their own.

This scenario would be bad enough for the emerging economies. But now China has devalued the yuan to stimulate its exports and thus its economy at the expense of others. And one thing has become clear today: these struggling economies that compete with China are going to protect their exports against Chinese encroachment.

Hence a currency war.

It didn’t help that oil plunged nearly 5% to a new 6-year low, with WTI at $40.55 a barrel, after the EIA’s report of an “unexpected” crude oil inventory buildup in the US,now, during driving season when inventories are supposed to decline!

And copper dropped to $5,000 per ton for the first time since the Financial Crisis, down 20% so far this year. Copper is the ultimate industrial metal. China, which accounts for 45% of global copper consumption, is the bull’s eye of all the fretting about demand. 5,000 is the line in the sand. A big scary number. Other metals fared similarly.

Copper powerhouse Glencore, whose shares plunged nearly 10% today, blamed“aggressive and synchronized large-scale short selling” for the copper debacle, instead of fundamentals. But fundamentals have been whacking copper for years, and shorts have simply been joyriding the trend.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

Gretchen Morgenson: Wall Street Really Does Enjoy a Different Set of Rules Than the Rest of Us

Gretchen Morgenson: Wall Street Really Does Enjoy a Different Set of Rules Than the Rest of Us

What type of system might work better for our interests?

Gretchen Morgenson has earned a Pulitzer-winning career from exposing abuse and conflicts of interest on Wall Street. In this interview, she confirms that there is indeed a second set of rules enjoyed by our elite financial institutions, largely unfettered by the constraints that apply to the rest of us.

Consequences for failure and fraud are very different under this second set of rules — in fact, they’re practically rewarded. Accountability, by all prudent measures, has become non-existent. The extraordinary measures the U.S. deployed to deal with the great contraction in 2008 only served to exacerbate these imbalances.

What’s sorely needed now is a national dialogue on whether we’re willing to allow this to continue. What benefits are we receiving by enabling these elite to enjoy such different standards? What type of system and rules might work better for our interests?

Sadly, beyond the disorganized Occupy Wall Street outrage that has waned in visibility, there is no real cogent, organized public debate focused on this right now. A big reason is that Washington is actively avoiding such a dialogue. It was fundamentally complicit in creating the underlying factors resulting in the ’08 collapse and it doesn’t want brighter light helping the public understand that more clearly.

As a populace we have a decision to make: Are we going to get more engaged and start articulating the reform we want to see? For if not, we’re making a passive decision to allow the wealth gap to widen further.

In the meantime, Gretchen sees a lot of instability in financial markets that have been allowed to balloon further even though the underlying causes of the ’08 crash haven’t been resolved. She cautions investors to avoid risk (despite the Fed’s encouragements), pay down debt, and have a defensive plan in place should the markets suffer another serious correction in the near future.

 

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

U.S. Containerized Exports Fall Off the Chart

U.S. Containerized Exports Fall Off the Chart

“Many of our major trading partners are experiencing stalled or slowing economies, and the strength of the US Dollar versus other currencies is making US goods more expensive in the export market.” That’s how the Cass/INTTRA Ocean Freight Index report explained the phenomenon.

What happened is this: The volume of US exports shipped by container carrier in July plunged 5.8% from an already dismal level in June, and by 29% from July a year ago. The index is barely above fiasco-month March, which had been the lowest in the history of the index going back to the Financial Crisis.

The index tracks export activity in terms of the numbers of containers shipped from the US. It doesn’t include commodities such as petroleum products that are shipped by specialized carriers. It doesn’t include exports shipped by rail, truck, or pipeline to Mexico and Canada. And it doesn’t include air freight, a tiny percentage of total freight. But it’s a measure of export activity of manufactured and agricultural products shipped by container carrier.

Overall exports have been weak. But the surge in exports of petroleum products and some agricultural products have obscured the collapse in exports of manufactured goods. For now, the currency war waged by all the other major economies catches much of the blame:

The strength of the U.S. dollar against other currencies accounts for a significant part of the drop because of the relative price advantage our competitors have. There is concern that U.S. sellers—especially suppliers of agriculture products and food products such as meats—may have lost customers for good.

That’s the goal of a currency war. But wait… the dollar began to strengthen last year, while containerized exports have been dropping since 2012, when it was the Fed that waged a currency war against other economies, and when it was the dollar that was losing its value. So there are other reasons, long-term structural reasons unrelated to the dollar.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Death Cross, Wild Market Swings And A Currency War – And We Haven’t Even Gotten To September Yet

A Death Cross, Wild Market Swings And A Currency War – And We Haven’t Even Gotten To September Yet

Financial Despair - Public DomainThings continue to line up in textbook fashion for a major financial crisis by the end of 2015.  This week, Wall Street has been buzzing about the first “death cross” that we have seen for the Dow since 2011.  When the 50-day moving average moves below the 200-day moving average, that is a very important psychological moment for the market.  And just like during the run up to the stock market crash of 2008, we are starting to witness lots of wild swings up and down.  The Dow was up more than 200 points on Monday, the Dow was down more than 200 points on Tuesday, and it took a nearly 700 point roundtrip on Wednesday.  This is exactly the type of behavior that we would expect to see during the weeks or months leading up to a crash.  As any good sailor will tell you, when the waters start getting very choppy that is not a good sign.  Of course what China is doing is certainly not helping matters.  On Wednesday, the Chinese devalued the yuan for a second day in a row, and many believe that a new “currency war” has now begun.

So what does all of this mean?

Does this mean that the time of financial “shaking” has now arrived?

Let’s start with what is happening to the Dow.  When the 50-day moving average crosses over the 200-day moving average, it is a very powerful signal.  For example, as Business Insider has pointed out, if you would have got into stocks when the 50-day moving average moved above the 200-day moving average in December 2011, you would have experienced a gain of 43 percent by now…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been on an unrelenting upward trajectory since its October 2011 low.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

Exposing the false prophets of social transformation

Exposing the false prophets of social transformation

A growing group of elite storytellers present radical solutions to global problems, but their ideas actually inhibit real change and strengthen the status quo.

John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods Market. Credit: http://www.sustainablebrands.com. All rights reserved.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 was a shock for many people. For a moment it seemed like capitalism, or at least ‘neoliberal’ capitalism, was on its last legs. But the moment passed and capitalism survived. The combination of huge cash subsidies for Wall Street and austerity for working people revived corporate profitability, trade, and production growth. Yet a sense of crisis and uncertainty remains pervasive in American society and many other countries around the world.

In the US, the economy remains the top concern. Good jobs lost during the recession have been replaced by low-wage, part-time jobs, while traders and lawmakers worry over whether Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s plan to raise the federal funds rate this year will derail the ‘recovery.’ The runaway success of Thomas Piketty’s treatise on global inequality; the surprising crowds drawn by an openly socialist candidate for the US Presidency like Bernie Sanders; and recent widespread mobilizations against police brutality in cities across the United States, all indicate a growing dissatisfaction with the status quo.

Outside the spheres of politics and economics, a different but related sense of crisis is apparent. There’s a growing feeling of dread that our way of life is destroying the planet, highlighted by books such as Paolo Bacigalupi’s The Windup Girl and David Mitchell’s The Bone Clocks, and popular films likeElysium and SnowpiercerNaomi Klein’s far-reaching critique of capitalism and global warming has received the most attention, but she is not alone. Voices from across the political spectrum have declared that capitalism is in crisis.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

You’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat

You’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat

Size matters. Just ask Roy Scheider. As incredulous as it may seem, I only recently sat myself down to watch that American scare-you-out-of-the-water staple Jaws for the first time. As a baby born in 1970, the movie at its debut in 1975 was hugely inappropriate for my always precocious, but nevertheless only five-year old self. And by the time this Texas girl and those Yankee cousins of mine were pondering breaking the movie rules during those long-ago summers in Madison, Connecticut, it was not Jaws but rather Brat Pack movies that tempted us. We started down our road of movie rebellion with St. Elmo’s Fire, then caught up with a poor Molly Ringwald in Pretty in Pink and then really stretched our boundaries with Less than Zero – you get the picture.

And so finally during this long, hot summer of 2015, a seemingly appropriate time with our country gripped from coast to coast with real-life shark hysteria, I watched Jaws for the first time and heard Roy Scheider as Chief Martin Brody utter those words, “You’re gonna need a bigger boat.”

Prophetically, the reality might just be that the collective “we,” and quite possibly sooner than we think, really will need a bigger boat. That is, as it pertains to the global debt markets, which have swollen past the $200 trillion mark this year rendering the great white featured in Jaws, which can be equated with past debt markets, as defenseless and small as a teensy, striped Nemo by comparison.

The question for the ages will be whether size really does matter when it comes to the debt markets. It’s been more than three years since Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio excited the investing world with the notion that the levered excesses that culminated in the financial crisis could be unwound in a “beautiful” way.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

11 Red Flag Events That Just Happened As We Enter The Pivotal Month Of August 2015

11 Red Flag Events That Just Happened As We Enter The Pivotal Month Of August 2015

Red Flags - Public DomainAre you ready for what is coming in August?  All over America, economic, political and social tensions are building, and the next 30 days could turn out to be pivotal.  In July, we saw things start to turn.  As you will read about below, a major six year trendline for the S&P 500 was finally broken this month, Chinese stocks crashed, commodities crashed, and debt problems started erupting all over the planet.  I fully expect that this next month (August) will be a month of transition as we enter an extremely chaotic time in the fall and winter.  Things are unfolding in textbook fashion for another major global financial crisis in the months ahead, and yet most people refuse to see what is happening.  In their blind optimism, they want to believe that things will somehow be different this time.  Well, the coming months will definitely reveal who was right and who was wrong.  The following are 11 red flag events that just happened as we enter the pivotal month of August 2015…

#1 Puerto Rico is going to default on a 58 million dollar debt payment that is due on Saturday.  Even though this has serious implications for the U.S. financial system, Barack Obama has said that there will be no bailout for “America’s Greece”.

#2 As James Bailey has pointed out, the most important trendline for the S&P 500has finally been broken after holding up for six years.  This is a critical technical signal that will likely motivate a significant number of investors to sell off their holdings in the weeks ahead.

#3 The IMF is indicating that it will not take part in the new Greek debt deal.  As a result, the whole thing may completely fall apart

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

Unifor Report Slams Harper’s Economic Performance

Unifor Report Slams Harper’s Economic Performance

2008 downturn no excuse for harmful policy, says union economist.

A new report from Canada’s largest private sector union says Stephen Harper and his Conservatives are running the most poorly performing economy the country has seen since the end of the Second World War.

Unifor economists Jim Stanford and Jordan Brennan compared economic data from nine governments of Canada (excluding short terms like Kim Campbell and John Turner) since World War II. They found Harper’s performance is the most dismal, with Brian Mulroney in a distant second.

The report examined 16 indicators of economic progress, including job creation, real GDP growth, export growth, household debt and real personal incomes.

“The Harper government ranked last or second last in 13 of the 16 indicators,” Stanford said.

He said when all the categories are added up to give a cumulative score, Harper grabbed an 8.05 out of nine. Nine is the worst possible score.

Brennan and Stanford included extensive lists of data used for their rankings, so skeptics can see the information for themselves.

Economist Mike Moffatt of Ontario’s Mowat Centre, an independent think tank, reviewed the report and said it holds up to scrutiny.

Moffatt said the figures in the report are accurate, but more context would help explain why the economy has performed poorly.

“They were kind of selective in what they chose to report,” Moffatt said, suggesting the authors could have analyzed more categories favourable towards the government, like household wealth. “That’s a mild issue with it, but overall a lot of the more obvious economic indicators have been rather poor over the last eight or nine years, which this report points out.”

Moffatt added the number crunching and raw data in the report was “fantastic.”

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Liar Loans Pop up in Canada’s Magnificent Housing Bubble

Liar Loans Pop up in Canada’s Magnificent Housing Bubble

For a long time, the conservative mortgage lending standards in Canada, including a slew of new ones since 2008, have been touted as one of the reasons why Canada’s magnificent housing bubble, when it implodes, will not take down the financial system, unlike the US housing bubble, which terminated in the Financial Crisis.

Canada is different. Regulators are on top of it. There are strict down payment requirements. Mortgages are full-recourse, so strung-out borrowers couldn’t just mail in their keys and walk away, as they did in the US. And yada-yada-yada.

But Wednesday afterhours, Home Capital Group, Canada’s largest non-bank mortgage lender, threw a monkey wrench into this theory.

Through its subsidiary, Home Trust, the company focuses on “alternative” mortgages: high-profit mortgages to risky borrowers with dented credit or unreliable incomes who don’t qualify for mortgage insurance and were turned down by the banks. They include subprime borrowers.

So it disclosed, upon the urging of the Ontario Securities Commission, the results of an investigation that had been going on secretly since September: “falsification of income information.” Liar loans.

Liar loans had been the scourge of the US housing bust. Lenders were either actively involved or blissfully closed their eyes. And everyone made a ton of money.

So Home Capital revealed that it has suspended “during the period of September 2014 to March 2015, its relationship with 18 independent mortgage brokers and 2 brokerages, for a total of approximately 45 individual mortgage brokers,” who’d together originated nearly C$1 billion in single-family residential mortgages in 2014. That’s 5.3% of the company’s total outstanding loan assets, and 12.5% of its total single-family mortgage originations in 2014.

That’s a big chunk. The company, however, didn’t disclose why it took so long to disclose this.

It said an “external source” had warned it about income falsification on mortgage applications submitted by a number of brokers. Its investigation did not find any evidence of falsified credit scores or property values, it said.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The South American Financial Crisis Of 2015

The South American Financial Crisis Of 2015

South America - Public DomainMost nations in South America are either already experiencing an economic recession or are right on the verge of one.  In general, South American economies are very heavily dependent on exports, and right now they are being absolutely shredded by the twin blades of a commodity price collapse and a skyrocketing U.S. dollar.  During the boom times in South America, governments and businesses loaded up on tremendous amounts of debt.  Since much of that debt was denominated in U.S. dollars, South American borrowers are now finding that it takes much more of their own local currencies to service and pay back those debts.  At the same time, there is much less demand for commodities being produced by South American nations in the international marketplace.  As a result, South America is heading into a full-blown financial crisis which will cause years of pain for the entire continent.

If you know your financial history, then you know that we have seen this exact same scenario play out before in various parts of the world.  The following comes from a recent CNN article

The dollar’s gains should make history nerds shake in their boots. Its rally in the early 1980s helped trigger Latin America’s debt crisis. Fifteen years later, the greenback surged quickly again, causing Southeast Asian economies, such as Thailand, to collapse after a run on the banks ensued.

In particular, what is going on right now is so similar to what took place back in the early 1980s.  At that time, Latin American governments were swimming in debt, the U.S. dollar was surging and commodity prices were falling.  The conditions were perfect for a debt crisis in Latin America, and that is precisely what happened

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Stock Market Will Start To Fall In July? The Dow Plummeted More Than 500 Points Last Week

The Stock Market Will Start To Fall In July? The Dow Plummeted More Than 500 Points Last Week

Falling - Public DomainWas last week a preview of things to come? There are quite a few people out there that believe that the stock market would begin to decline in July, and that appears to be precisely what is happening. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 530 points. It was the biggest one week decline that we have seen so far in 2015, and some are suggesting that this could only be just the beginning. By just about any measurement that you might want to use, the stock market is overvalued. But we have been in this bubble for so long that many people have come to believe that this is “the new normal”. In fact, earlier today someone that I know dropped me a line and suggested that our financial overlords may be able to use the tools at their disposal to get this current bubble to persist indefinitely. Unfortunately, the truth is that no financial bubble ever lasts forever, and right now some very alarming things are starting to happen behind the scenes. Over the past couple of weeks, the smart money has been dumping stocks like crazy, and the lack of liquidity in the bond markets is beginning to become acute.  Could it be possible that another great financial crisis is just around the corner?

Last week took a lot of investors by surprise. The following is how Zero Hedgesummarized the carnage…

-Russell 2000 -3.1% – worst week since Oct 2014 (Bullard)
-Dow -2.8% – worst week since Dec 2014
-S&P -2.1% – worst week since Jan 2015
-Trannies -2.8% – worst week since Mar 2015
-Nasdaq -2.2% – worst week since Mar 2015

The talking heads on television were not quite sure what to make of this sudden downturn. On CNBC, analysts mainly blamed the usual suspects…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

 

 

As Economy Heads to Another Crash, BIS Acknowledges: We’re Failing

As Economy Heads to Another Crash, BIS Acknowledges: We’re Failing

http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/07/22/maechtigste-bank-der-welt-legt-mandat-zur-rettung-der-weltwirtschaft-zurueck/

World’s Most Powerful Bank Reverses Course, to Avoid a Global Depression

German Economic News, Translation (and closing Note) by Eric Zuesse  |  Published: 22:07:15 20:10 clock

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) acknowledges in its annual report that the policy of cheap money has failed. All the trillions in monetary stimulus have produced no growth in the real economy. Central banks cannot salvage the economy. Governments — fiscal stimulus — must now resolve the economic crisis. Political leadership is required.

In November 2008, the Federal Reserve in the US began to purchase many billions in securities, to stabilize the markets after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Later, the Fed bought also US Treasuries, and cut interest rates to a record low of zero to 0.25 percent. So, they set off a global devaluation race. As a result, between just January 1st and March 12th of 2015, one-fifth of all central banks lowered their key interest rates. China was last to join this currency war, but when they did, their easing of monetary policy helped spark a credit-driven bull market that now produces the biggest Chinese slump in 20 years.

The Basel-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is considered the “central bank of central banks.” It was originally founded in 1930 to handle German reparations after the First World War. Today the BIS networks together central banks around the world, and manages on their behalf nations’ gold reserves. Its 85th Annual report analyzes the global financial system, seven years after the 2008 crisis. An entire chapter is devoted to shortcomings of the international monetary and financial system. It says that instead of promoting sustainable and balanced growth of the global economy, this system actually undermines growth long-term.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

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