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How To Avoid Blackouts Using 100% Renewable Energy

How To Avoid Blackouts Using 100% Renewable Energy

Solar

Researchers have proposed three different methods for providing consistent power in 139 countries using 100 percent renewable energy.

The inconsistencies of power produced by wind, water, and sunlight and the continuously fluctuating demand for energy often hinder renewable energy solutions. In a new paper, which appears in Renewable Energy, the researchers outline several solutions to making clean power reliable enough for all energy sectors—transportation; heating and cooling; industry; and agriculture, forestry, and fishing—in 20 world regions after all sectors have converted to 100 percent clean, renewable energy.

The researchers previously developed roadmaps for transitioning 139 countries to 100 percent clean, renewable energy by 2050 with 80 percent of that transition completed by 2030. The present study examines ways to keep the grid stable with these roadmaps.

Multiple solutions

“Based on these results, I can more confidently state that there is no technical or economic barrier to transitioning the entire world to 100 percent clean, renewable energy with a stable electric grid at low cost,” says lead author Mark Z. Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University who is also a senior fellow at the Stanford Precourt Institute for Energy and the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.

“This solution would go a long way toward eliminating global warming and the 4 million to 7 million air pollution–related deaths that occur worldwide each year, while also providing energy security.”

“…the greatest barrier to the large-scale implementation of clean renewable energy is people’s perception that it’s too hard to keep the lights on…”

The paper builds on a previous 2015 study by Jacobson and colleagues that examined the ability of the grid to stay stable in the 48 contiguous United States. That study only included one scenario for how to achieve the goals.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Strategy of Maximal Extraction

The Strategy of Maximal Extraction

How Donald Trump Plans to Enlist Fossil Fuels in the Struggle for Global Dominance

The new U.S. energy policy of the Trump era is, in some ways, the oldest energy policy on Earth. Every great power has sought to mobilize the energy resources at its command, whether those be slaves, wind-power, coal, or oil, to further its hegemonic ambitions. What makes the Trumpian variant — the unfettered exploitation of America’s fossil-fuel reserves — unique lies only in the moment it’s being applied and the likely devastation that will result, thanks not only to the 1950s-style polluting of America’s air, waters, and urban environment, but to the devastating hand it will lend to a globally warming world.

Last month, if you listened to the chatter among elite power brokers at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, you would have heard a lot of bragging about the immense progress being made in renewable energy.  “My government has planned a major campaign,” said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address to the group.  “By 2022, we want to generate 175 gigawatts of renewable energy; in the last three years, we have already achieved 60 gigawatts, or around one-third of this target.”  Other world leaders also boasted of their achievements in speeding the installation of wind and solar energy.  Even the energy minister of oil-rich Saudi Arabia, Khalid Al-Falih, announced plans for a $30 billion to $50 billion investment in solar power.  Only one major figure defied this trend: U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry.  The United States, he insisted, is “blessed” with “a substantial ability to deliver the people of the globe a better quality of life through fossil fuels.”

A better quality of life through fossil fuels? On this, he and his Trump administration colleagues now stand essentially alone on planet Earth.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA estimates for USA in 2050: The Future is Fossil Fuels and Cheap Electricity

EIA estimates for USA in 2050: The Future is Fossil Fuels and Cheap Electricity

What energy transformation?

The EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2018 is out. The hard heads at the US Dept of Energy crunched the numbers, assumed technology will improve, and modeled the outcomes. According  to their best estimates (and even their “worst” estimates) thirty years from now, the main energy source for the US is natural gas and fossil fuels. Renewables grows from 5% to 14%, but coal, nukes, hydro stays about the same. When the Australian Greens say “we don’t want to be left behind”, the answer is “Exactly! So explore for gas! Use Nukes!”

The World’s largest economy will still be nearly 80% fossil fueled in 2050.

On the road, most people are still using gasoline cars, and here’s the kicker — electricity prices are still at about 11 cents per kilowatt hour. Weep all ye Australians, Brits, Germans and other who would be grateful if electricity only rose 10% a year, not 10% over 30 years.

How much does an interconnector cost from Townsville to Texas?  ;-)

h/t Paul Homewood who has quoted Mark Perry from AEI:

Despite all of the hype, hope, cheerleading, fuel standards, portfolio standards, and taxpayer subsidies for renewable energies like wind and solar, America’s energy future will still rely primarily on fossil fuels to power our vehicles, heat and light our homes, and fuel the US economy.

EIA, 2018, Graph, Total energy use projections.

EIA, 2018, Graph, Total energy use projections.

Electricity prices are dirt cheap and will stay that way:

EIA, 2018, Graph, Total energy use projections.

EIA, 2018, Graph, Electricity Prices, projections.

Of the renewables, only  solar PV is forecast to increase. Wind stays the same; Hydro stays the same; Geothermal is still tiny.

Big-solar does not even rate a mention.

EIA, 2018, Graph, Renewables use projections.

Which renewables are growing?

The Big Picture

Renewables, a small non-essential part that isn’t going to change much.

EIA, 2018, Graph, Industrial energy use projections.

Industrial energy use will be … about the same mix.

Electric Vehicles? Spot the green sliver:

Not the car transition some are expecting.

EIA, 2018, Graph, transportation, projections.

EIA, 2018, Graph, Total energy use projections.

BP solar chief forecasts global clean energy renaissance

BP solar chief forecasts global clean energy renaissance

A new paradigm of ‘planetary ecology’ might emerge after 2050

Published as part of the launch of the new beta platform for INSURGE intelligence, a crowdfunded journalism platform for people and planet

A new book put together by the Chairman of the philanthropic arm of Europe’s largest solar company, Lightsource BP, throws light on how the world will be permanently transformed by an energy revolution in coming decades.

The study’s key finding is that the widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies could usher in a new electricity paradigm associated with a more advanced clean, industrial economy. The core ingredients for this paradigm will take off rapidly after 2050, it says.

On the other hand, the study warns that renewable energy, if implemented within the same ‘old’ geopolitical paradigm of the fossil fuel era, might not avoid a further deterioration of environmental stability and international security.

The new book is edited by Vicente Lopez Ibor Mayor, former Chairman of Lightsource Renewable Energy, which merged with the leading British oil firm, BP, at the end of last year.

BP invested $200m in the merger, equivalent to a 43 percent stake in what is now Lightsource BP. Under the deal, Mayor became Chairman of the Lightsource Foundation, Lightsource BP’s charitable division.

Ibor Mayor’s book, Clean Energy Law and Regulation: Climate Change, Energy Union and International Governance, also published at the end of last year, brings together expert contributions from senior EU officials, energy analysts, diplomats, legal scholars and technology experts. Their contributions scope how energy regulation is rapidly changing to keep up with the emergence of a new electricity and energy paradigm driven by the rise of renewables.

This new renewables-driven paradigm, Mayor concludes, will emerge inevitably in the latter half of the twenty-first century — but its nature, positive or negative, is not set in stone.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2018: A Breakout Year For Clean Energy

2018: A Breakout Year For Clean Energy

solar Australia

The bullish momentum for global clean energy investment, which rose 3 percent to $333.5 billion in 2017, will continue this year.

There was significant progress in the transition to cleaner energy in 2017, and 2018 should see more of the same. New solar installations will top 100 GW this year, with China likely to make up about half of that total, according to a new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), which lays out some key predictions for 2018.

However, beginning this year, BNEF says that new countries will become relevant in the race for clean energy, including sizable solar installations slated for Latin America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

Falling costs and proliferating installations of wind and solar are underpinning the sector’s growth. At the same time, cheaper inputs mean that developers can get more gigawatts of clean energy per dollar invested, which explains why the headline investment figure appears to not be growing by all that much.

There were some eye-popping figures and notable progress for new renewable energy projects in 2017. For instance, the tariffs for some onshore wind projects in Mexico dropped to a whopping $18.60 per MWh, a price that “would have been unthinkable only two or three years ago,” Angus McCrone, Chief Editor at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, wrote in the report.

Meanwhile, the cost of lithium-ion batteries plunged by an additional 24 percent last year, which raises the odds that by the mid-to-late 2020s, EVs could beat out conventional gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles not just on the life time cost, but even on upfront cost.

Battery costs will continue to decline this year, but at a slower rate than in the past. Soaring prices for cobalt and lithium carbonate will offset some of the declines in cost, to be sure, but BNEF still sees the average cost of battery packs falling by an additional 10 to 15 percent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Can We Afford Renewable Energy?

Over a decade ago we got involved in the development of the biofuels industry in Europe, when it began to take off in earnest there.

At that time estimated profits from biodiesel production created considerable enthusiasm, which at one point turned euphoric with new production facilities being announced almost on a weekly basis.

What was not to like? Europeans would get to drive their cars using green, very low-carbon, seemingly affordable fuels, saving the environment in the process. And investors would make a ton of money.

However, reality turned out to be rather more complicated than that, much to the chagrin of those investors. Production margins were quite volatile and very difficult to hedge into the future. All that new demand ended up spiking the prices of vegetable oils – the key biodiesel production input – way above those of fossil fuels. Entire domestic production complexes went bust as a result, prompting governments across Europe to eventually implement a range of support measures to make biofuels part of the fuel mix.

Biodiesel became the biofuel of choice in Europe for many reasons. It can be used as a blend component for diesel or replace it completely (typically referred to as B100, or biodiesel 100%). Both options were available in many pumps across Germany, the industry’s pioneer and largest European market by far at that time. Despite being staunch environmental supporters and relatively wealthy, when the price of a liter of B100 was higher just by one cent German consumers immediately switched to its fossil fuel counterpart.

In other words, when push came to shove the willingness to pay for a “green” premium was not there – even in one of the most environmentally conscious countries in the world. This stunned us at the time.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Chile’s electricity sector can go 100% renewable

How Chile’s electricity sector can go 100% renewable

If pumped hydro plants that use the sea as the lower reservoir can be put into large-scale operation Chile would be able to install at least 10 TWh of pumped hydro storage along its northern coast. With it Chile could convert enough intermittent solar into dispatchable form to replace all of its current fossil fuel generation, and at a levelized cost of electricity (provisionally estimated at around $80/MWh) that would be competitive with most other dispatchable generation sources. Northern Chile’s impressive pumped hydro potential is a result of the existence of natural depressions at elevations of 500m or more adjacent to the coast that can hold very large volumes of sea water and which form ready-made upper reservoirs.

Valhalla’s pumped hydro plant

My recent review of the Valhalla solar/pumped hydro storage project is what set me to wondering how much untapped pumped hydro potential there might be in Northern Chile, so I begin with a brief recap of pumped hydro potential there.

Valhalla’s project layout map shows its two upper pumped hydro reservoirs (they will be connected by a canal) occupying two natural depressions at around 600m elevation and about seven kilometers from the sea. According to Valhalla they can hold at least 25 million cubic meters of sea water and according to my estimates about 15 gigawatt-hours of stored energy:

Figure 1: Valhalla’s pumped hydro project layout

The question I had was how to go about identifying other prospective pumped hydro reservoir sites in the area, and the best tool at my disposal was Google Earth. So before beginning my search I checked to see whether I could duplicate Valhalla’s reservoir outlines and volumes from  Google Earth, which in Northern Chile uses good-quality imagery and gives spot elevations to the nearest foot.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Welcome to renewables world: Australia plans for blackouts, throws billions of dollars, but ABC says it will get “cheaper”

Welcome to renewables world: Australia plans for blackouts, throws billions of dollars, but ABC says it will get “cheaper”

The fear is palpable

How much fun can you have living in a global experiment?  In Australia, peak summer is about to hit in a post-Hazelwood-electricity-grid.  We’re drowning in electricity news as summer ramps up. Everyday there’s another Grid story in the press, and a major effort going on to avoid a meltdown.  Minister Josh Frydenberg announced today that “we’ve done everything possible to prevent mass blackouts”. Or as he calls it, a repeat of the South Australian Horror Show.   Politicians are so afraid of another SA-style-system-black that they are throwing money: The “Snowy Hydro Battery” will be another $2 billion. Whatever. It’s other people’s money.

This is what they are afraid of:

The red bars mean “Reserve Shortfall”. The dark blue matter is “Generation”. The graph covers two years (sorry about the quality) so the two red bursts are summer 2018 and summer 2019.

SA MEdium Term Forecast, Outlook, AEMO, Mt PASA. Australian national electricity market, 2017, South Australia, Graph.

SA Medium Term Forecast, Outlook, AEMO, Nov 16th 2017, South Australia.

Oddly we are headed for a critical time, but this’s the most recent graph I can find  — thanks to Wattclarity –  from November 16th, 2017. (Here’s an earlier version from March 2017. and from Dec 2016). Perhaps there is a newer kinder forecast, but curiously the AEMO Medium Term Outloook page isn’t working “til early 2018″. Hmm? Odd time to take it down.

The words in that top box (rewritten below*) indicate they do a new outlook every two weeks, but I can’t find one on the Wayback Machine, or Google Cache. Perhaps you can? Please let me know.

Australian electricity prices forecast to rise and fall at the same time

The ABC tells us prices look set to fall:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Transformation glitch? Biggest issue facing South Australia is electricity say 70%

Transformation glitch? Biggest issue facing South Australia is electricity say 70%

A Sunday Mail survey (paywalled) shows that despite SA having more “free, cheap and clean” renewable electricity than just about anywhere in the world, the number one biggest issue for most South Australians is … “electricity”. And despite all the renewable jobs created, the second most common concern is “jobs”. Going for the Paradox-Trifecta: most strangely of all, with elected leaders who are leading the largest energy transformation since civilization began, the third “biggest issue” facing South Australians is “political leadership”.

Thanks to Eric Worrall, who describes South Australians as “the world’s renewable crash test dummies”.

Survey, South Australia, 2017, biggest concerns, results. Graph.

SA has an election coming up in March, but at the moment voters there are caught in the bind between the reality of electricity shocks, and the belief that “renewables are cheap”. Will the local Libs (the opposition) have the spine to stand up and speak the truth and make this election about energy and climate, or will they pander #metoo, and lose the unloseable?

Will the Libs get the message here? Most South Australians like the sound of renewables, but when it comes to the crunch, and the issues they will vote on, electricity prices and jobs will rule. This is a bubble ripe for the popping. As for political leadership — sucking up to global bullies and namecalling parasites is not leadership. Speaking up against the dominant paradigm and against the fashionable memes is. Saying things that are unpopular but true is leadership.

As long as Liberals wait for the opinion polls to change (and produce even more obvious results than this) they are not leaders.

In agenda-setting results on a cornerstone issue for the March state election, more than 3500 respondents overwhelmingly ranked affordability and reliability as the most important components of electricity supply in the Sunday Mail Your Say, SA survey.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Beware the Green Corporate Scam: the 100% Renewable Façade

Beware the Green Corporate Scam: the 100% Renewable Façade

A few months ago, Google announced that they will achieve their goal of being 100% powered by renewable energy in 2017 [1]. They are not the only corporation with such lofty goals. Google is joined by GM, Apple, Coca Cola, and more than one hundred companies who have also pledged to go “100% renewable” [2].

It would be easy to believe that this means a great victory for the planet, that the demise of fossil fuels is incoming, that environmentalism has won and that climate change will soon be a thing of the past. Yet the foul smell emerging from tax-dodging transnationals jumping all together into a bandwagon cannot be ignored.

Despite their claims, none of the companies in the RE100 list is actually going to receive all of its energy from renewable sources. The “100% renewable” label is a façade, a marketing gimmick used by corporations to pretend they are the good guys while their unfettered thirst for profits continues unopposed. This corporate lie is enabled by the abuse of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) which allow companies to buy their way into “green” without having to change any of their practices. Here is Google’s actual claim:

“Google will buy, on an annual basis, the same amount of MWh of renewable energy as the MWh of electricity that we consume for our operations around the world” [3].

Behold the magic of the RECs. When a renewable energy facility creates one MWh of energy, it not only creates electricity, it also gets a certificate, a REC, which states that one MWh of clean energy was created. The REC can then be sold, either together with the electricity or separate from it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The California Duck Curve isn’t confined to California

The California Duck Curve isn’t confined to California

The California Duck Curve is causing concern among California’s utilities, who wonder whether they will be able to ramp generation up quickly enough to meet evening peak demand when all the new solar capacity California plans to add over the next few years comes on line. As the title of this post notes, however, the California Duck Curve isn’t unique to California. It’s present everywhere to a greater or lesser extent regardless of the shape of the daily load curve, and in many places it’s a more serious problem than it is in California.


From the Institute for Energy Reasearch:

(The California Duck Curve) provides a scenario of a sunny day where distributed photovoltaic generation pulls down non-solar electricity demand to extremely low levels at midday when the sun is at its hottest and distributed photovoltaic generation is at a high. That is, the state’s non-solar generating capacities must reduce their production to inefficient lows when the energy supply at the “belly” of the duck from solar distributed generation is at its highest. Later in the day when solar generation is declining and California residents are coming home from work and turning on their appliances, electricity demand ramps up dramatically, which requires flexible generation capacity to come on-line very quickly to meet it. The California ISO is worried that the “neck” of the duck curve could overwhelm the state’s available generating capacity.

Figure 1 shows the duck curve. It clearly illustrates the problem California’s utilities face. Adding more solar generation increases ramp rates leading up to the evening demand peak that coincides with the setting Sun, and if enough is added California’s load-following capacity could find itself unable to ramp up quickly enough to keep the air conditioners running. Could this happen?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Australia, energy storage and the Blakers study

Australia, energy storage and the Blakers study

Roger Young’s recent post focused on the question of whether the energy storage requirements listed in Prof. Andrew Blakers’ study “100% renewable electricity in Australia” were realistic, but at the time no hard numbers on exactly how much storage Prof. Blakers’ scenarios would require were available.  I have now come up with some reasonably hard numbers by applying Blakers’ scenarios to recent Australian grid data. Because the grid data cover a period of only a few months these numbers are not fully diagnostic, but they are sufficient to confirm Roger Young’s conclusion that the Blakers study seriously underestimates storage requirements.

Modeling 100% renewable energy scenarios has become a popular activity among academics. An example is the recent study published by Professor Andrew Blakers et al., which based on model results concluded that 100% renewable generation in the National Electricity Market (NEM) grid area of eastern Australia could be supported by only 400-500 GWh of energy storage. In his recent post Roger Young concluded that the true requirement was closer to 6,800 GWh, over thirteen times higher.

Roger Young’s estimate was, however, based on a back-of-the-envelope calculation. In this post I calculate storage requirements for Blaker’s two basic renewables scenarios – 80 wind/20 solar and 55 wind/45 solar – using 97 days of actual grid data (from 27 July through November 2, 2017) that cover all of Australia except Northern Territory. The results show that at least 2,800 GWh of storage would have been needed to support an Australia-wide, wind-solar-powered grid over this period, about six times greater than the Blakers study estimate. This 2,800 GWh estimate will, however, underestimate long-term storage requirements, quite possibly by a large amount. Roger Young’s back-of-the-envelope estimate of 6,800 GWh may therefore not be too far off the mark.

Analoguing the Blakers scenarios:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Geopolitical Implications Of Renewable Energy

The Geopolitical Implications Of Renewable Energy

Solar

An October report from BlackRock (BLK)—the world’s largest publicly traded investment management firm—wisely states, “markets are calm but geopolitics are anything but.”

Wind and solar energy—two leading renewable energy options—could possibly become a dangerous part of an energy mix as the world continues on a downward geopolitical slope.

Both are intermittent and unreliable, and can only produce consistent energy under certain weather parameters, and neither, at this time, can be stored at scale. Renewable energy options are also tough on the environment because wind and solar energy requires large amounts of land compared to conventional, reliable fossil fuel energy.

However, renewables are consistently publicized as growing faster than fossil fuels, but that’s misleading. Unless hydroelectricity is being produced under a controlled scenario with dammed water then renewable energy is inferior to coal, nuclear and natural gas powered electricity.

While renewables don’t emit carbon dioxide, they may not, unfortunately, be the solution to lower emissions. This is where renewables can create a dangerous geopolitical climate for nations pursuing them wholeheartedly.

A new paper by the Center of the American Experiment, “Energy Policy in Minnesota the High Cost of Failure,” chronicles Minnesota’s $15 billion experiment with wind energy over traditional fossil fuels, which didn’t lower CO2 emissions and caused Minnesota’s price of electricity to rise above the national average for the first time on record.

Imagine this on a larger scale. Think Africa—where 635 million citizens are without any form of modern energy at this time. This lack of scalable, affordable energy that fossil fuels and nuclear energy provide can be construed as a direct correlation for the inherent instability of Africa, its lower economic growth, higher rates of overpopulation and lacking the wherewithal to combat radicalization by groups like ISIS throughout the continent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

100% renewable electricity in Australia

100% renewable electricity in Australia

Guest post by Energy Matters commentator Roger Young. Roger is a retired businessman from Australia who is concerned by the renewables free-for-all.

The object of his post, which was originally submitted as a comment, is an academic study published by Blakers et al that claims Australia can become a 100% renewables nation at relatively low cost. Roger Young questions the modelling work presented and asserts that the storage requirement has been under-estimated by a factor of 12 which naturally has a profound impact on the cost estimates.

To set the scene, here is the abstract from the Blakers study, Rogers post follows.

An hourly energy balance analysis is presented of the Australian National Electricity Market in a 100% renewable energy scenario, in which wind and photovoltaics (PV) provides about 90% of the annual electricity demand and existing hydroelectricity and biomass provides the balance. Heroic assumptions about future technology development are avoided by only including technology that is being deployed in large quantities (>10 Gigawatts per year), namely PV and wind.

Additional energy storage and stronger interconnection between regions was found to be necessary for stability. Pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) constitutes 97% of worldwide electricity storage, and is adopted in this work. Many sites for closed loop PHES storage have been found in Australia. Distribution of PV and wind over 10-100 million hectares, utilising high voltage transmission, accesses different weather systems and reduces storage requirements (and overall cost).

The additional cost of balancing renewable energy supply with demand on an hourly rather than annual basis is found to be modest: AU$25-30/MWh (US$19-23/MWh). Using 2016 prices prevailing in Australia, the levelised cost of renewable electricity (LCOE) with hourly balancing is estimated to be AU$93/MWh (US$70/MWh). LCOE is almost certain to decrease due to rapidly falling cost of wind and PV.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

100% renewables: ‘wishful thinking’ or an imperative goal?

In this essay, I was provoked to respond to Stan Cox’s widely-shared article “100 Percent Wishful Thinking: The Green-Energy Cornucopia”, in which he argues that a transition to 100% renewable energy is neither technically feasible, nor desirable.

It is my contention, in contrast, that a 100 percent global renewable energy transition is, indeed, technically possible in a short time frame (20 to 30 years) with a capacity to supply the same level or even more energy to civilization, than the present infrastructure dominated by fossil fuels.

However, this outcome is unlikely in our present economic context:

Insight 1: This renewable energy transition is not likely to bear fruition within the constraints of market capitalism as we know it. Further, a process forward for global demilitarization is a necessary condition to prevent climate catastrophe with its requirement of near future decarbonization of energy supplies.

Axiom 1: Not only is the Pentagon is the world’s single, biggest insitutional consumer of fossil fuels, but global military expenditures now approach $2 trillion per year.

Cox denies the feasibility of a 100% renewable energy transition, basing his views on very problematic critiques focusing largely on the technical aspects of the Jacobson group studies. Those studies led by Mark Jacobson of Stanford University recently provoked controversy when their work received peer-reviewed criticisms from a scientific paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences — the same esteemed forum which published Jacobson’s original work.

I agree with Cox in his skepticism with regard to the achievability of a robust global 100% renewable transition unfolding in the next few decades — but only if fossil capital and its military protectors continue to have a powerful role in determining climate and energy policy especially in the U.S.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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Olduvai II: Exodus
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