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German Establishment View On Tsipras/Troika Showdown
German Establishment View On Tsipras/Troika Showdown
Der Spiegel has a long analysis today on the fate of Greece and the Tsipras/EU pas de deux. The tone toward Tsipras seemed secretly admiring while outwardly scornful and hostile. He comes off ultimately as the bad guy who is completely and solely to blame for the worsening crisis, with Merkel and EU bureaucrats portrayed as earnest leaders who badly miscalculated the situation and misread Tsipras.
Spigel simplistically summarized the views of the two sides:
From the Greek perspective, the EU, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the euro zone are all synonymous with poverty and exploitation. From the perspective of most European Union leaders, on the other hand, Greece is little more than a failed state governed by clientelism and nepotism, a country whose economy has little to offer aside from olive oil and beach bars.
Then it blamed the current Greek regime for exacerbating an already bad situation.
But relations between the Greek government and its partners in the 18 euro-zone capitals are deeply impaired. The Greek economy’s slide has dangerously accelerated under the new government and Brussels has lost almost all of its trust in Athens.
The Spiegel team went on to heap a litany of blame on the Tsipras regime.
Tsipras’s leftist-nationalist government has not done much for the economy. In the six months since the election, Greek parliament has done little to simplify the tax code as promised or to streamline the country’s bureaucracy. Furthermore, the man in charge of promoting international business relations in the Foreign Ministry is a cousin of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. But instead of boosting exports, he has primarily drawn attention to himself with his rhetoric of class struggle and his chastisements of Europe.
They apparently had little difficulty finding Tsipras critics within Greece.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why Greece Is The Precursor To The Next Global Debt Crisis
Why Greece Is The Precursor To The Next Global Debt Crisis
The one undeniable truth about the debt drama in Greece is that each of the conventional narratives—financial, political and historical—has some claim of legitimacy.
For example, spendthrift Greeks shunned fiscal discipline: here’s an account from 2011 that lays out the gory details: The Big Fat Greek Gravy Train: A special investigation into the EU-funded culture of greed, tax evasion and scandalous waste.
Or how about: Greek reformers want to fix the core structural problems but are being stymied by tyrannical European Union/Troika leaders: The Greek Debt Crisis and Crashing Markets.
Rather than get entangled in the arguments over which of the conventional narratives is the core narrative—a hopeless misadventure, given that each narrative has some validity—let’s start with the facts that are supported by data or public records.
The Greek Economy Is Small and Imbalanced
Here are the basics of Greece’s economy, via the CIA’s World Factbook:
Greece’s population is 10.8 million and its GDP (gross domestic product) is about $200 billion (This sourcestates the GDP is 182 billion euros or about $200 billion). Note that the euro fell sharply from $1.40 in 2014 to $1.10 currently, so any Eurozone GDP data stated in dollars has to be downsized accordingly. Many sources state Greek GDP was $240 billion in 2013; adjusted for the 20% decline in the euro, this is about $200 billion at today’s exchange rate.
Los Angeles County, with slightly more than 10 million residents, has a GDP of $554 billion, more than double that of Greece.
The European Union has over 500 million residents. Greece’s population represents 2.2% of the EU populace.
External debt (public and private debt owed to lenders outside Greece):
$568.7 billion (30 September 2013 est.)
National debt:
339 billion euros, $375 billion
Central Government Budget:
revenues: $119.5 billion
expenditures: $127.9 billion (2014 est.)
Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-):
-3.4% of GDP (2014 est.)
Public debt:
174.5% of GDP (2014 est.)
Labor force:
3.91 million (2013 est.)
GDP – per capita (Purchasing Power Parity):
$25,800 (2014 est.)
Unemployment rate:
26.8% (2014 est.)
Exports:
$35.8 billion (2014 est.)
Imports:
$62.8 billion (2014 est.)
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China Is Just Another Front in the Zombie War
China Is Just Another Front in the Zombie War
LONDON – This morning, a desperate message from our analyst in Beijing puts us in a lighthearted mood:
I’m sure you must have heard about the recent disaster in the Chinese stock market.
It’s my first time experiencing something like this. And it shocked me. It’s like the world is suddenly turning upside-down. Everyone is running for themselves.
People here feel hopeless, as they see so many government bailout plans fail.
There are so many rumors I can’t tell what’s true and what’s not. Some even said that it was U.S. capital shorting Chinese index futures.
Opportunities Everywhere!
At the Diary, we always look on the bright side: We see opportunity everywhere.
Investors in U.S. stocks seemed to wake up yesterday with a start. They didn’t panic. But they were at least beginning to worry. The Dow dropped 261 points – wiping 1.5% off its value. There is probably a lot more where that came – an opportunity on the downside.
To recap: Greece’s creditors have given Athens until midnight to come up with an acceptable reform plan. Nobody knows what will happen.
But Greeks are pulling as much cash out of ATMs as they can. There have been lines at gas stations and food stores. And Greek stocks are selling with as much as 20% dividend yield and just over two times earnings. This could be a (highly speculative) opportunity on the upside.
Meanwhile in China, investors have seen roughly $3.5 trillion in paper wealth evaporate over the last two months as stock prices there plunged. The Chinese are not sophisticated stock market investors. They have only been at it for a few decades. So, they tend to get over-excited in both directions.
It was only a few weeks ago that Chinese brokers were opening new accounts in record numbers. From farmers to hairdressers, everyone was itching to get a piece of the action, as the stock market soared.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Kicking of the Can
The Kicking of the Can
Hello, Mr. Tusk … New Orders
Yesterday it emerged that the normally hardline European Council president Donald Tusk (the former prime minister of Poland), suddenly felt “debt relief” for Greece was needed after all. While he is undoubtedly correct, it seems to us that he likely received a stern phone call from Washington.
Donald Tusk, the life-like android currently presiding over the EU council, here photographed in hardline mode
Photo credit: Radek Pietruszka / PAP
It is also unlikely to be a coincidence that the IMF released its debt sustainability analysis last week, in what appeared to be a case of especially ill-chosen timing, at least from the perspective of the euro-group. Note here that the IMF only wants the EU to provide debt relief to Greece – the IMF itself intends to get back every cent of its Greek loans.
Politicians in neo-con infested Washington no doubt don’t want to let slip Greece away into the arms of its Russian Orthodox co-religionists, which would almost certainly happen after a Grexit. Such strategic considerations are certainly exercising the NATO bureaucracy and very likely the EU’s movers and shakers as well. A Grexit would also be a victory of the Marxist wing of Syriza (a Pyrrhic victory though it may be), which would over time throw Greece’s continued NATO membership into doubt.
According to press reports from this morning:
“The White House has been putting its immense diplomatic weight behind a debt restructuring for Greece. Treasury secretary Jack Lew made an intervention earlier this week, and seems cautiously optimistic that Greece’s current proposals should be enough to satisfy creditors, and gain some crucial debt concessions in return.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greek Businesses Accept Lira, Lev As Grexit Looms
Greek Businesses Accept Lira, Lev As Grexit Looms
With the Greek drama headed into its final act and Alexis Tsipras stuck between an obstinate Germany and a recalcitrant Left Platform, many wonder if the introduction of an alternative currency in Greece is now a foregone conclusion.
Even if Athens and Brussels manage to strike a deal over the weekend, the country still faces an acute cash shortage and a severe credit crunch that threatens to create a scarcity of critical imported goods.
Amid the chaos, the Greek Drachma has made two mysterious appearances this week (see here and here), suggesting that the EU is on the verge of forcing the Greek economy into the adoption of a parallel currency andwhile this week’s Drachma “sightings” might properly be called anecdotal, a report from Kathimerini and comments from deposed FinMin Yanis Varoufakis suggest redenomination rumors are not entirely unfounded.
Now, with the ECB set to cut Greek banks off from the ELA lifeline on Monday morning in the absence of a deal, some businesses are mitigating the liquidity shortage by accepting foreign currency. FT has more:
Like many Bulgarians, Kostadin Dobrev, is a regular visitor to the beaches and bars of northern Greece. But this week, the holidaying firefighter immediately noticed things were different. First, the shops were half-empty. Then, even more surprising, he found Greek hotels and restaurants were happy to accept the Bulgarian lev.
As Europe’s politicians prepare for a weekend summit to decide whether Greece can stay in the eurozone, Mr Dobrev’s experience highlights how the old certainties are collapsing. By early next week Greeks could be preparing for life outside the euro and a possible return to the drachma.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Varoufakis’ Stunning Accusation: Schauble Wants A Grexit “To Put The Fear Of God” Into The French
Varoufakis’ Stunning Accusation: Schauble Wants A Grexit “To Put The Fear Of God” Into The French
Earlier we reported that Yanis Varoufakis, seemingly detained by “family reasons” would be unable to join his fellow parliamentarians and personally vote in what is likely the most important vote of Syriza’s administration: the one in which he and his party capitulate to the Troika and vote “Yes” to the proposal he and Tsipras urged everyone to reject just one week ago.
Subsequently, it was made clear what these family reasons are:
The self-described “erratic Marxist” will be on the nearby holiday island of … Aegina. In fact, he Tweeted that he reason for his absence is “family reasons”. Nevertheless, two hours before his Tweet was posted, the once obscure academic was spotted on the ferry boat “Phivos”, headed for Aegina, where his wife owns a stylish vacation home.The author of the “global Minotaur” nevertheless sent a letter to the Parliament president saying he would vote “yes” for the proposal, although the letter will not be counted, given that Parliament regulations stipulate that only deputies on official Parliament business are allowed to cast votes via correspondence.
Judgment aside about his decision to take a holiday from a vote that his strategy guided Greece into, it was clear that he has Wifi on the ferry because this afternoon, While V-Fak may well have been in transit, the Guardian released an Op-Ed penned by Varoufakis titled “Germany won’t spare Greek pain – it has an interest in breaking us.” Readers can read it in its entirety here but here is the punchline:
Mapping The World’s “Grey Swans”
Mapping The World’s “Grey Swans”
As H2 2015 begins, Goldman looks at so-called “grey swans” – known market risks that could prove particularly disruptive. From China credit risks to Russia and from rate volatility to Russia with Middle East tensions, cyber threats, and illiquidity-induced ‘flash-crashes’, the known-but-not-priced-in risks are rising… because – simply put – central bank omnipotence remains the narrative (for now).
Russia is fading as a risk quickly (much to Washington’s chagrin) as China risk accelerates rapidly…
And over time…
And so while Janet keeps trying to talk down any rate hikes as ‘priced-in’ or not an issue, the market (and Goldman) clearly thinks differently as sees interest rate volatility as the biggest “grey swan” currently… and when the costs of capital vary dramatically, CFOs will tamp down their debt-financed buybacks…
Source: Goldman Sachs
We Are All (or Should Be) Greeks Now
We Are All (or Should Be) Greeks Now
Their ‘No’ vote splashes a spotlight on ugly austerity, and its powerful puppeteers.
The temple of neo-liberalism and its ideology of social suicide in the interests of the banks has been breached. The hysteria in European capitals (particularly Germany) after the resounding “No” vote by the people of Greece is entirely appropriate. For decades now developed country governments and their enforcers, the IMF and the World Bank, have managed to bamboozle people in country after country, convincing them that up is down and black is white — that austerity and recession are nirvana — pie in the sky, bye and bye.
Until now.
The “No” vote — accomplished despite a hysterical campaign of fear by literally the entire Greek and EU media — is like a bright flash of light, however momentary, revealing the true nature of the conditions imposed by international finance and its political puppets in Western capitals. And who better to wield that bright light than Greece’s heretic economist and (now former) finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. An accomplished economist and an even better propagandist, he single-handedly reframed the Greek crisis from one of blaming lazy Greeks to blaming greedy EU banks.
Talk about great theatre: to contrast himself with the endless stream of men in suits from the euro-zone bureaucracy, he gave a news conference the day of the vote wearing a T-shirt. He was rejected by his fellow finance ministers as a negotiator because he, unlike most of them, actually understood economics and was prone to ridiculing their constant repetition of neo-liberal slogans.
The war between democracy and international finance, effectively suppressed for decades by complicit Western politicians and co-conspirators in the corporate media, is now out in the open for all to see. And what we see should have us declare that we are all Greeks now.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greece Diary
Greece Diary
I was in Greece from June 23 through July 5, and, while I had no meetings with government officials that might give me insider information on how events there are likely to unfold, nevertheless the experience was both enlightening and disturbing, and is worth relating.
Travel to Greece came at the invitation of the Stavros Niarchos Foundation, which had organized a conference on philanthropy and sustainability (here’s the text of my talk). The Foundation constitutes the largest philanthropic organization in the country and from what I can tell it is doing remarkable work in helping the people of Greece deal with their ongoing economic crisis. Stavros Niarchos has spent $100 million so far on jobs-creating projects in technology innovation and cultural preservation, and has promised another $200 million for the years to come.
Since Stavros Niarchos generously offered to pay for a plane ticket for my wife Janet too, we decided to celebrate our 20th wedding anniversary by seeing some sights—which in Greece inevitably includes ruins—and spending some much-needed tourist dollars.
Over its long history, Greece has certainly seen spectacular ups and downs, with its better moments providing the cultural underpinnings of western civilization. Sitting and strolling among the fallen pillars of the Acropolis and the Agora—where Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle hung out with their respective flocks of disciples, drinking the ancient equivalent of espresso while discussing truth, beauty, and good governance—couldn’t help but put me in a philosophical mood. These ancient people built in stone and inscribed their ideas on tablets. Yet how fragile their achievements proved to be in the face of economic decline and the onslaughts of invaders. In comparison, our vastly greater modern material achievements (thanks to the power of fossil fuels) have been expressed in buildings with an average 50-year life expectancy, and with writings preserved on media that reliably self-destruct in practically no time at all. What will we leave behind?
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Maintaining the Illusion of Stability Now Requires Ever-Greater Extremes
Maintaining the Illusion of Stability Now Requires Ever-Greater Extremes
This much-needed re-set to an economy that serves the many rather than the few is what the Powers That Be are so fearful of.
On the surface, everything still looks remarkably stable in the core industrial economies. The stock markets in Japan, Germany and the U.S. are only a few percentage points off their highs, and we’re constantly assured that inflation no longer exists and official unemployment is low.
In other words, other than the spot of bother in Greece, life is good. Anyone who signs on the dotted line for easy credit can go to college, buy a car or house or get another credit card.
With more credit, everything becomes possible. With unlimited credit, the sky’s the limit, and it shows.
Europe is awash with tourists from the U.S., China and elsewhere, and restaurants are jammed in San Francisco and New York City, where small flats now routinely fetch well over $1 million.
In politics, the American public is being offered a choice of two calcified, dysfunctional aristocracies in 2016: brittleness is being passed off as stability, not just in politics but in the economy and the cultural zeitgeist.
But surface stability is all the status quo can manage at this point, because the machine is shaking itself to pieces just maintaining the brittle illusion of prosperity and order.
Consider what happened in Greece beneath the surface theatrics.
1. Goldman Sachs conspired with Greece’s corrupt kleptocracy to conjure up an illusion of solvency and fiscal prudence so Greece could join the Eurozone.
2. Vested interests and insiders gorged on the credit being offered by German and French banks, enriching themselves to the tune of tens of billions of euros, which were transferred to private accounts in Switzerland at the first whiff of trouble. When informed of this, Greek authorities took no action; after all, why track down your cronies and force them to pay taxes when tax evasion is the status quo for financial elites?
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Someone Pull The Plug or This Will End in War
Someone Pull The Plug or This Will End in War
I was going to write up on the uselessness of Angela Merkel, given that she said on this week that “giving in to Greece could ‘blow apart’ the euro”, and it’s the 180º other way around; it’s the consistent refusal to allow any leniency towards the Greeks that is blowing the currency union to smithereens.
Merkel’s been such an abject failure, the fullblown lack of leadership, the addiction to her right wing backbenchers, no opinion that seems to be remotely her own. But I don’t think the topic by itself makes much sense anymore for an article. It’s high time to take a step back and oversee the entire failing euro and EU system.
Greece is stuck in Germany’s own internal squabbles, and that more than anything illustrates how broken the system is. It was never supposed to be like that. No European leader in their right mind would ever have signed up for that.
Reading up on daily events, and perhaps on the verge of an actual Greece deal, increasingly I’m thinking this has got to stop, guys, there is no basis for this. It makes no sense and it is no use. The mold is broken. The EU as a concept, as a model, has failed and is already a thing of the past.
It’s over. And anything that’s done from here on in will only serve to make things worse. We should learn to recognize such transitions, and act on them. Instead of clinging on to what we think might have been long after it no longer is.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
European Leaders Promise The Greek Debt Crisis Will Be Resolved One Way Or Another On Sunday
European Leaders Promise The Greek Debt Crisis Will Be Resolved One Way Or Another On Sunday
The wait will soon be over. Greece submitted a final compromise plan to its eurozone creditors on Thursday, European finance ministers will meet on Saturday to discuss the proposal, and an emergency summit of all 28 EU nations on Sunday will make a final decision on what to do. The summit on Sunday is being billed as a “final deadline” and a “last chance” by EU officials. In essence, Greece is being given one more opportunity to embrace the austerity measures that are being demanded of them by their creditors. So has Greece gone far enough with this new proposal? We shall find out on Sunday.
For months, the entire planet has been following this seemingly endless Greek debt saga. Global financial markets have gyrated with every twist and turn of this ongoing drama, and many people have wondered if it would ever come to an end. But now European leaders are promising us that the uncertainty is finally going to be over this weekend…
This time, the leaders’ summit called for Sunday is being billed by all concerned as the definitive moment that will determine Greece’s future in the euro. It’s “really and truly the final wake-up call for Greece, but also for us — our last chance,” EU President Donald Tusk said on Wednesday, the day after the most recent emergency session.
So what is the general mood of European leaders as they head into this summit?
Overall, it does not appear to be overly optimistic.
For example, just consider what the head of the Bundesbank is saying…
Bundesbank Chief Jens Weidmann, meanwhile, said that central banks have no mandate to safeguard the solvency of banks or governments, and stressed that emergency liquidity to Greece should not be increased.
And even normally upbeat leaders such as ECB President Mario Draghi are sounding quite sullen…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Gold and the “Grexit” Threat
Gold and the “Grexit” Threat
The Everything is Fine Meme
Initially, we were also a bit surprised that the gold price didn’t rise when the threat of a Greek exit from the euro area became more palpable following the breakdown in negotiations and the outcome of the Greek referendum. After all, it was to be expected that “risk assets” would suffer and so-called safe haven assets would be sought after, at least temporarily.
However, upon giving the matter some thought, we have concluded that gold’s lack of a response (in fact, it went slightly down rather than up, so there was actually a response) could actually be explained quite easily. For one thing, speculators increased their net long position in gold futures by more than 20,000 contracts net in the week before the negotiations broke down, apparently in anticipation. While they did so, the gold price barely budged, so in a sense it was “wasted firepower”.
Image via eghtesadnews.com
Prior to the breakdown in negotiations between the troika and Greece, speculators increased their net long position in gold (above the net hedger position is shown, which is the inverse of the speculative position) – click to enlarge.
When no large increase in prices occurred on the Monday after the referendum had been announced, these new positions were quickly liquidated again. The downturn in prices in turn emboldened speculators to add to their short positions, pressuring prices even further.
There are other reasons for the reaction as well. One is that in spite of a bit of a wobble in stocks, the essential “everything is just fine” story hasn’t really been derailed. The dangers of a “Grexit” are probably underestimated and up until recently, no-one believed it to be a likely outcome anyway (it still isn’t, although it is more likely than it once used to be).
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Losing Control
Losing Control
Markets are beginning to signal that policy makers are losing control. Many second-order-effects of the unprecedented and experimental global actions taken since the 2008 crisis are beginning to manifest. There are always causes and effects that develop; but they do so at different speeds. Many actions in recent years have prioritized ‘benefits today’ over ‘consequences tomorrow’. ‘Tomorrow’ is approaching ever more quickly. There is no ‘free lunch’.
Market damage and volatility due to policy interference, or due to the deliberate influence of security prices, are a shame. Markets should ideally operate with unencumbered fluidity. Markets should operate in a manner where adjustments to new information allow buyers and sellers to rapidly, and seamlessly, find a natural clearing price. Authorities and regulations should be like good referees in a soccer match; they provide the conditions for a fair match, and you rarely notice their presence.
- The beginning-of-the-end of official control happened earlier this year when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) retracted its currency-peg-promise, triggering a 40% move in the G-7 currency in 10 minutes.
- In early May, shortly after the SNB event and the launch of ECB QE and EU negative interest rate experiments, the EU bond market became dysfunctional. The absurdity of sustaining $4 trillion of negative rates came into focus. The German 10-year Bund moved from 0.05% to 0.75% in under a month.
- A series of Greek policy and troika bailout mistakes – actions that never resulted in a realistic and sustainable solution – are now culminating toward a tipping point (more tomorrow).
- Chinese authorities that have allowed and encouraged an equity bubble to manifest (and other central banks for that matter) are starting to see how ‘bubble blowing’ typically ends. Other central banks are hopefully watching. Chinese equities have lost $3.2 trillion in value in 30 days. To put this into perspective, this is equivalent to the entire stock market capitalization of Germany and France combined.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Neither Crowdfunding, Nor Oxi,Nor Anything Else Can Stave OffGreece’s Systemic Collapse
Neither Crowdfunding, Nor Oxi,Nor Anything Else Can Stave Off Greece’s Systemic Collapse
In case you missed the media hubbub, a one-week Indiegogo crowdfunding campaign was started back on June 29th with the goal of raising €1.6 billion to pay off Greece’s most recent debt repayment and set it back on the road to prosperity. The campaign of course came nowhere near the repayment amount, and although it amassed a massive reaction across the Internet, it barely made it past the 0.1% mark of its goal – €1,930,366. But seeing how it had no realistic chance of achieving its goal in the first place, it’s inherent that its failure isn’t its biggest disappointment. That mark of distinction goes straight to its existence in the first place, and in particular the dumbing down it has foisted upon a very serious situation.
The brainchild of a Mr. Thom Feeney, a marketing co-ordinator in London, the Indiegogo campaign came with the tagline of being “by the people, for the people,” a great gimmick if there ever was one. Since Feeney stated that he was “fed up with the dithering of our politicians” and that he “would have prefer[red] that we had governments that listened and connected with the public,” it seems that European politicians forced his hand in the matter and left him with no choice but to single-handedly save Greece. Or so one gathers from his statements. Furthermore, and being the 21st century with all its techno-wizardry, the idea behind the crowdfunding campaign he started was that
The beauty of the internet and social media means that a campaign like this can become possible by word-of-mouth and people all across the world can get involved very quickly.
In other words, slap up a page on the Internet, put in your dues in the right social (media) circles, and whammo – you’ve suddenly saved a country! As Feeney then put it,
The chance to use a crowdfunding site for social good is really exciting and I hope that others will follow my lead in future and start or get behind projects like this.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
