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Successful investors live by a golden rule: what the mainstream financial media talks about is not important. They focus on what they don’t hear instead. So forget about Yellen for a second. Let go of Draghi, oil, the South African rand and Syria. That’s all in the now. But investing is about the future.

We are convinced there is one proverbial elephant in the room in particular that will shape our future. And that elephant is Japan. The ‘widowmaker’ trade has been claiming financial lives for multiple decades now. That is, short JGBs, or Japanese Government Bonds, was so obvious a trade that it never worked. The 10-year yield currently trades at 0.3%, which is close to the all-time low. We’re still waiting for the shoe to drop.

Will it ever drop? We believe it will. ‘Drop’ might not be the appropriate word. The accumulation of imbalances might trigger a cascade of events that will shake the world at its core. Let’s investigate some data.

Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio has hit a unprecedented 230%. You probably knew that. But it doesn’t keep you awake at night. We are genetically wired to focus on acute danger. If a tiger approaches us, we focus. But if stands still and doesn’t move for years, we turn around in search for other dangers. Wise investors remind themselves constantly of the tiger though. They never let their guard down.

What about the pace at which debt-to-GDP is ramping up? The budget deficit tells us all we need to know.

For six years in a row already, Japan scored around minus 8%. And given the flattish GDP, these annual percentages head straight to the public debt pile. Japan’s long term potential real GDP-growth rate is simply close to zero, given the demographics. The latest quarterly print was a minus 0.3%. This makes the debt grow even faster.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“It’s Hot Out There” – Here’s Why In One Visualization

December 19, 2015

“It’s Hot Out There” – Here’s Why In One Visualization

It’s not just warm, but very warm,” exclaims one east coast ski resort owner, adding “I can’t remember it ever being like this here.” But why? As WSJ reports, two weather occurrences – the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño – are combining to shake up temperatures from coast to coast in the U.S., bringing springlike conditions to the Northeast for much of this month and leaving parts of the West colder and wetter than usual.

Typically this time of year, Arctic Oscillation would bring cold air to the Eastern U.S., bringing temperatures down. But so far this year, the oscillation has stayed much farther north, allowing warm air from the south to fill the void, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate prediction center.

The other factor is El Niño, a periodic climate cycle in which sea surface temperatures over the eastern Pacific become warmer than usual. The effects from changes in Arctic Oscillations generally last only a few weeks, but the balmy weather in the Northeast could continue because of the El Niño effect, experts say.

El Niños push the subtropical and polar jet streams, which help define weather around the world, to the north. The result is that the southern U.S. gets rain that normally falls in Central and South America, while the Northeast and Midwest get a reprieve from winter as the polar jet stream is pushed up into Canada.

“If people are nervous, they should be nervous.”

The current El Niño is on track to rank among the top three strongest since record-keeping began in 1950, according to federal climatologists.

“The El Niño impact is not dominating yet,” said Bill Patzert, a climate scientist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. “It’s like the tale of two climates here.

And since every failure of central planning to achieve its seasonally-adjustedeconomic targets must be blamed on something, even something as ridiculous as the weather, regardless if it is “too cold” like in the past two years, or “too hot”, now we know why Q4 GDP will be crap!

Look Out Below: the Real Economy Just Hit Stall Speed

December 2, 2015

Look Out Below: the Real Economy Just Hit Stall Speed

Look out below, for even with bloated federal spending, the real economy has hit stall speed.

What do we mean when we say the U.S. economy is at stall speed? Stall speedrefers to the air speed and angle of the wing (called the angle of attack) needed to keep an aircraft aloft.

“An aircraft flying at its stall speed cannot climb, and an aircraft flying below its stall speed cannot stop descending. Any attempt to do so by increasing angle of attack, without first increasing airspeed, will result in a stall.”

In layman’s terms, once an airplane’s speed drops to the point that cranking the wing angle up no longer provides enough lift, the airplane stalls out and starts an unintended (and often uncontrolled) descent.

The real U.S. economy (as opposed to the stock market) is at stall speed, and is about to crash into recession. The analogy (via longtime correspondent B.C.) is apt, as the economy is losing speed on multiple fronts.

B.C.’s chart is unique, in that it includes everyone’s favorite stimulus, huge federal deficits: trillions of dollars borrowed from our children and grandchildren to support bloated federal fiefdoms, favored cartels and various bread-and-circuses programs that placate the restive masses.

There are three parts to this chart. Let’s look at them one at a time. The red line is real final sales per capita, which means all sales in the economy adjusted for inflation divided by the population, i.e. per person.

This scrapes away some of the distortions built into gross domestic product (GDP), which is heavily gamed to provide the illusion of “growth.”

Note that real sales have reached lower highs and hit lower lows for the past three decades–they’ve now rolled over, which means the economy is slowing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Wall Street Remains Clueless—–Even As The Brown Stuff Heads Straight Into The Fan

November 25, 2015

Wall Street Remains Clueless—–Even As The Brown Stuff Heads Straight Into The Fan

The Dow should have been down 500 points Tuesday. And that’s to say nothing of the fact that the market’s current lofty valuation makes no sense in the first place.

The fact is, the brown stuff is now heading straight for the fan.

Didn’t the odds of a major geo-political calamity just take a huge turn for the worse in the airspace over the Syria-Turkey border?

At the same time, wasn’t today’s GDP update just one more reminder that the global economy is sinking into a deflationary contraction? And that our so-called domestic recovery cycle is getting very long in the tooth and is essentially running on the fumes of inventory accumulation?

Yet the Wall Street gamblers and robo-traders seem to think that pricing this global accident waiting to happen at 22X reported S&P 500 earnings is no big deal. And that comes on top of the fact that the long-running corporate earnings expansion cycle is over, as attested to by both the GDP report and the Q3 SEC filings.

At $94 per share S&P reported earnings came in 11% below last year’s $106 per share and that was before the most recent headwinds became evident.

To wit, Syria is rapidly taking on the complexion of the Balkans in June 1914. The resulting backwash of Islamic State terrorism and millions of refugees streaming deep into the interior of Europe threatens to elicit a political and economic lockdown and a potential Thermidorian Reaction.

The rise of rightwing nationalism, in fact, would end the European Union as we know it.

And this is occurring even as Asian exports to Europe plunge, dragging Japan into its 5th recession in seven years and China ever closer to a thumping hard landing.

So the market at 22X amounts to a bubble floating toward a pin.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Presenting SocGen’s 5 Black Swans For 2016

November 24, 2015

Presenting SocGen’s 5 Black Swans For 2016

If you’re the type who likes black swans this has been the month for you.

On the political front, Portugal’s Socialists, led by Antonio Costa, formed an alliance with the Left Bloc and the Communists on the way to overthrowing the Passos Coelho government and presaging a repudiation of Berlin’s brand of fiscal rectitude. This throws the country’s austerity program into doubt and sets up not only a confrontation with the troika, but also the potential loss of access to ECB QE should a deteriorating fiscal situation prompt a DBRS downgrade.

In Spain, Catalonia is in the midst of a secession bid which, depending on Catalan political infighting and how far Rajoy wants to push things ahead of national elections set for next month, could see a fifth of Spain’s GDP separate, causing Spanish debt-to-GDP to jump by some 25%.

As far as geopolitics goes, ISIS Sinai downed a Russian passenger plane killing all 224 people on board and then, not even two weeks later, ISIS proper waged war in the streets of Paris killing 130 people. As if those two bombshells weren’t enough, Turkey decided to shoot down a Russian fighter jet this morning.

Finally, 12 month forwards for the Saudi riyal seem to indicate that the market believes the three decade-old dollar peg is about to fall under pressure from slumping crude and falling FX reserves. BofAML calls the possibility of a Saudi depeg the “number one black swan event for the global oil market in 2016.”

And those are just the black swans that have landed in the last 30 days.

In its latest quarterly Global Economic Outlook, SocGen takes a look at five political and economic black swans that could touch down in 2016 and also warns that “high levels of public sector debt, already overburdened monetary policy, still high debt stocks and on-going balance sheet clean ups in a number of economies leave the global economy will a low level of ammunition to deal with new shocks.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Hard Look at a Soft Global Economy

November 24, 2015

A Hard Look at a Soft Global Economy

MILAN – The global economy is settling into a slow-growth rut, steered there by policymakers’ inability or unwillingness to address major impediments at a global level. Indeed, even the current anemic pace of growth is probably unsustainable. The question is whether an honest assessment of the impediments to economic performance worldwide will spur policymakers into action.

Since 2008, real (inflation-adjusted) cumulative growth in the developed economies has amounted to a mere 5-6%. While China’s GDP has risen by about 70%, making it the largest contributor to global growth, this was aided substantially by debt-fueled investment. And, indeed, as that stimulus wanes, the impact of inadequate advanced-country demand on Chinese growth is becoming increasingly apparent.

Growth is being undermined from all sides. Leverage is increasing, with some $57 trillion having piled up worldwide since the global financial crisis began. And that leverage – much of it the result of monetary expansion in most of the world’s advanced economies – is not even serving the goal of boosting long-term aggregate demand. After all, accommodative monetary policies can, at best, merely buy time for more durable sources of demand to emerge.

Moreover, a protracted period of low interest rates has pushed up asset prices, causing them to diverge from underlying economic performance. But while interest rates are likely to remain low, their impact on asset prices probably will not persist. As a result, returns on assets are likely to decline compared to the recent past; with prices already widely believed to be in bubble territory, a downward correction seems likely. Whatever positive impact wealth effects have had on consumption and deleveraging cannot be expected to continue.

The world also faces a serious investment problem, which the low cost of capital has done virtually nothing to overcome. Public-sector investment is now below the level needed to sustain robust growth, owing to its insufficient contribution to aggregate demand and productivity gains.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Riyadh Feels the Pinch: The True Cost of Saudi Subsidies

November 21, 2015

Riyadh Feels the Pinch: The True Cost of Saudi Subsidies

In downtown Riyadh, SUV-populated intersections and lushly landscaped parks leave little indication that Saudi Arabia is rapidly depleting its oil and water resources. The Saudi predilection for gas-guzzling vehicles and water-intensive leisure spaces is hardly surprising- governmental subsidies have long obscured the true cost of these resources.

Saudis pay about 60 cents a gallon at the pump, which makes the average cost to fill a tank less than $20. Electricity, powered primarily by oil, costs only USD 0.6 per kilowatt hour. Drinking water supplied to Saudi households is so cheap that it is practically free. These low commodity rates are viewed by many as traditional perks of Saudi birthright, and Riyadh has traditionally shied away from raising tariffs and risking public ire. Placating the masses through subsidies and handouts, after all, has been a successful strategy for maintaining the House of Saud’s enduring grip on power in a region plagued by uprisings and political volatility. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi recently reaffirmed that there is no “dire need” for the Kingdom to cut energy subsidies in response to rumors that Riyadh was discussing adjustments to the subsidy program.

Yet a system of high subsidies is ultimately unsustainable for the Kingdom. Most obviously, the costly system is contributing to a rapid depletion of governmental coffers. With oil prices still slumping, Saudi Arabia faces skyrocketing debt and depleted monetary reserves. Equally important – high subsidies distort the true cost of resources, encourage overconsumption, and foster a public misperception that energy and water supplies are inexhaustible.

Depleting Monetary Resources

The Kingdom’s energy subsidy program runs up an annual bill of over $107 billion, or 13.2% of the country’s total GDP. This year has seen plenty of additional discretionary spending by Riyadh as well. When King Salman ascended the throne in January, Riyadh doled out $32 billion in handouts as a gesture of goodwill.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed Induced Farce

November 19, 2015

The Fed Induced Farce

The minutes from the last Fed meeting were released on Wednesday afternoon. The minutes, along with a squadron of jabbering Fed heads lying about the economy doing great, pretty much locked in the most talked about .25% interest rate increase in world history. Evidently the Wall Street titans of greed have convinced the muppets higher interest rates are great for stocks, as the market soared by 250 points. As institutional money exits the market on these rigged up days, the dumb money retail investor buys into the market with dreams of riches just like they did with Pets.com in 2000, McMansions in 2005, and Bear Stearns in 2007.

The Fed has lost any credibility they ever thought they deserved by delaying this meaningless insignificant interest rate increase for the last three years, so they will make this token increase in December come hell or high water. They want to give themselves some leeway for easing again when this debt saturated global economy implodes in the near future. The Fed is trapped by their own cowardice and capture by the Wall Street cabal. If they raise rates the USD will strengthen even more than it has already. The USD is already at 11 year highs. It has appreciated by 25% in the last year versus the basket of world currencies. The babbling boobs on the entertainment news channels authoritatively expound with a straight face about the rise in the dollar being due to our strong economic performance. It’s beyond laughable, as the economy has been sucking wind since the day the Fed turned off the QE spigot in October 2014.

Chart of the Day

Anyone with a working brain and an IQ over 100 (eliminates the bimbos and boobs on CNBC) can see the USD isn’t strengthening of its own accord.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What is Degrowth? Envisioning a Prosperous Descent

November 17, 2015

What is Degrowth? Envisioning a Prosperous Descent

This is a transcript of my keynote address presented at the ‘Local Lives, Global Matters’ conference in Castlemaine, Victoria, 16-18 October 2015. Other keynote speakers included Rob Hopkins, David Holmgren, and Helena Norberg-Hodge.

INTRODUCTION

Thank you for that introduction, Jacinta, good morning everyone. I would like to begin by acknowledging the traditional owners of this land and to recognise that these have always been spaces of teaching, learning, sharing, and conversation. It is a real honour to be part of this conversation today.

When I was a boy, if ever I were amongst a group of people congregating at 9am on a Sunday morning it was because I was at Church. For better or for worse, I am now a lapsed, or rather, I should say, a collapsed Catholic, although I remain a seeker. But as I look around the world today, especially from my Western perspective, it seems clear enough that God, if he is not yet dead, as Friedrich Nietzsche declared, is, at least, increasingly absent. There seems to be a tension between our spiritual sensibilities and the cultures and systems within which we live. As the poet-musician, Tom Waits, would shout in the voice of a husky wolf: ‘God’s away on business.’

But the absence of God should not imply an absence of religious thinking in our culture or cultures. In fact, I would argue quite the opposite; that our Western religiosity has become ever more intense in recent decades, and what has happened is that we simply switched idols, no longer worshipping the God of Christianity, and instead worshipping at the alter of growth, singing praises to the God of GDP, our saviour, for only in growth will we find redemption. Our high priests now take the peculiar form of neoclassical economists, bankers, and national treasurers.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship?

October 31, 2015

The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship?

One of the most reliable indicators of an imminent recession through recent history has been the yield curve. Whenever longer dated rates falls below shorter dated ones, a recession is not far off. Some would even say that yield curve inversion, or backwardation, help cause the economic contraction.

To understand how this can be we first need to understand what GDP really is. Contrary to popular belief, GDP only has an indirect relation to material prosperity. Broken down to its core component, GDP is simply a measure of money spent on goods and services during a specified period, usually a year or a quarter.

However, since money itself is a very fleeting concept we need to dig deeper to fully understand the relation between the slope of the yield curve and GDP. The core of money is its function as the generally accepted medium of exchange, but today that is much more than the cash in your wallet. For example, the base money, provided by the central bank, consist of currency in circulation and banks reserves held at the central bank.

From these central bank reserves the commercial banking system can leverage up, through fractional reserve lending practice, several times over. It is important to note that broader money supply measures, such as M2, is merely a reflection of banks leverage on top of base money. As a bank makes a loan to a borrower the bank creates fund which can be used as means of payments to whatever the borrower wants to spend the newly acquired money on. Obviously, these money claims will in turn create new deposits, which can be used to create new loanable funds and so on ad infinitum.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s Economy Even Worse than Suspected?

October 31, 2015

China’s Economy Even Worse than Suspected?

It’s always good to have a plan. So China has a new five-year plan, its 13th. And the plan is to dial down China’s formerly white-hot economy to a target of “medium-high economic growth” for the five years starting in 2016.

“The country will promote greater sophistication in its industrial sector and significantly raise the contribution of consumption to economic growth,” according to the Global Times, a tabloid under the People’s Daily, which is the official propaganda organ of the Communist Party. The goal is to double 2010 GDP and per-capita income by 2020 and create “a moderately prosperous society.”

That’s all exciting stuff for the future. Meanwhile, there’s today.

And today, the Chinese economy isn’t exactly hopping, despite the official GDP growth rate of 6.9% that no one believes, especially not the Chinese leadership. So the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark interest rates a week ago – the sixth cut since November – to the lowest level in the data going back two decades.

The leadership is trying to reform and restructure the economy away from low-value cheap-labor manufacturing to the miraculous powers of consumerism, implemented decades ago with such glorious success in the US and elsewhere. So exports and imports have been plunging. But no big deal because retail and services are going to make up for it. Other problems are cropping up….

“China’s steel demand evaporated at unprecedented speed as the nation’s economic growth slowed,” Zhu Jimin, deputy head of the China Iron & Steel Association, explained on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. Demand for steel, which is used in everything from buildings to cars, has dropped by 8.7% in September from a year ago. Prices have crashed. And steel mills are buckling under their debts even as they’re producing tons of red ink in an ocean of overcapacity.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Schäuble’s Gathering Storm

October 23, 2015

Schäuble’s Gathering Storm

Europe’s crisis is poised to enter its most dangerous phase. After forcing Greece to accept another “extend-and-pretend” bailout agreement, fresh battle lines are being drawn. And, with the refugee influx exposing the damage caused by divergent economic prospects and sky-high youth unemployment in Europe’s periphery, the ramifications are ominous, as recent statements by three European politicians – Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron, and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble – have made clear.

Renzi has come close to demolishing, at least rhetorically, the fiscal rules that Germany has defended for so long. In a remarkable act of defiance, he threatened that if the European Commission rejected Italy’s national budget, he would re-submit it without change.

This was not the first time Renzi had alienated Germany’s leaders. And it was no accident that his statement followed a months-long effort by his own finance minister, Pier Carlo Padoan, to demonstrate Italy’s commitment to the eurozone’s German-backed “rules.” Renzi understands that adherence to German-inspired parsimony is leading Italy’s economy and public finances into deeper stagnation, accompanied by further deterioration of the debt-to-GDP ratio. A consummate politician, Renzi knows that this is a short path to electoral disaster.

Macron is very different from Renzi in both style and substance. A banker-turned-politician, he is President François Hollande’s only minister who combines a serious understanding of France’s and Europe’s macroeconomic challenges with a reputation in Germany as a reformer and skillful interlocutor. So when he speaks of an impending religious war in Europe, between the Calvinist German-dominated northeast and the largely Catholic periphery, it is time to take notice.

Schäuble’s recent statements about the European economy’s current trajectory similarly highlight Europe’s cul-de-sac. For years, Schäuble has played a long game to realize his vision of the optimal architecture Europe can achieve within the political and cultural constraints that he takes as given.

Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/germany-versus-france-italy-by-yanis-varoufakis-2015-10#BYuW6MBRmDtgTE3W.99

Confusions, Delusions, and Illusions

October 21, 2015

Confusions, Delusions, and Illusions

Two recent surveys, along with numerous other studies and data, reveal most American households to be living on the brink of catastrophe, but continuing to act in a reckless and delusionary manner. There have certainly been economic factors beyond the control of average Americans that have resulted in real median household incomes remaining stagnant for the last 36 years. The unholy alliance of mega-corporations, Wall Street and bought off corrupt politicians have gutted the nation of millions of good paying jobs under the guise of globalization, while utilizing debt, derivatives and financial schemes to enrich themselves. The malfeasance of the sociopathic privileged class does not discharge the personal responsibility of citizens for living within their means. A lack of discipline, inability to delay gratification, failure to understand basic mathematical concepts, materialistic envy, absence of critical thinking skills, and a delusionary view of the world have left the majority of Americans broke and in debt.

The data that captured my attention was how little the average American household has in savings. Roughly 62% of Americans have less than $1,000 in savings and 21% don’t even have a savings account, according to a new survey of more than 5,000 adults conducted this month by Google Consumer Survey for personal finance website GOBankingRates.com. This dreadful data is reinforced by a similar survey of 1,000 adults carried out earlier this year by personal finance site Bankrate.com, which also found that 62% of Americans have no emergency savings for a medical crisis, car repair, or unanticipated household expenditure.

The fact is these are not highly unlikely scenarios. They happen every day as part of our routine existence. Everyone gets sick. Every car eventually needs new tires or an engine repair. Every home will need a new hot water heater or roof at some point. It is foolish and short sighted to not expect “unexpected” expenditures.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Appropriate Scarcity

October 20, 2015

Appropriate Scarcity

… appealing to people to restrain themselves [by] self-enforced abstinence alone is a waste of time. By and large, we consume as much as our incomes allow…. changes… cannot take place without constraints that apply to everyone rather than everyone else. Manmade global warming cannot be restrained unless we persuade the government to force us to change the way we live.

—George Monbiot, Heat (2006/2009)

The results indicate that the likelihood of paying a positive amount for supporting renewable energy is higher under a mandatory scheme compared to a voluntary payment option in the UK.

—Elcin Akcura, “Mandatory vs. voluntary payment for green electricity,” Ecological Economics (2015)

I believe Monbiot says it true. And Akcura (who knew?) provides research-based confirmation.

I envision fulfilling, challenging, joyful lives within environmental constraints, but I can’t imagine that happening without societal signals to reinforce consistent behavior. If level of consumption is a problem, then scarcity is a necessary part of the solution. In the least disruptive and potentially fairest sense, this means using prices to determine demand. To cut to the conclusion: my favorite example is a carbon tax.

Monbiot’s statement is frightening, Draconian, and an apparent non-starter politically… almost. But the consequence of denying it leads to several futile proposals and viewpoints which permeate the literature, both scholarly and public. They are futile because they do not produce results that are big enough and fast enough to beat back anthropogenic climate change. Hearing them repeatedly frustrates me. These are:

1. We citizens are being sold the idea that economic growth (especially GDP) is good by government bureaucracies that need it to stay alive, and by corporations that want it because they are greedy (e.g., “the 1%”).

2. We are personally acquisitive because of intensive advertising. Otherwise, we would readily embrace “enough is plenty.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Red Swan Descending

October 20, 2015

Red Swan Descending

The proverbial peddlers of Florida swampland can now move over. They can’t hold a candle to the red suzerains of Beijing.

The latter had drawn a line in the sand at 7.0% GDP growth. Conveniently enough, the “consensus” estimate of so-called street economists was pegged at 6.8% for Q3, thereby giving authorities one thin decimal point through which to thread a “beat” at 6.9%.

By golly they did it!

Even then, China’s Ministry of Truth had to fiddle down the GDP deflator to negative 0.5% (for the second time this year) in order to hit the bulls eye. And that’s exactly the point.

No real world $10 trillion economy plagued with all of the turmoil evident in China’s whipsawing trade data or its volatile real estate development sector or its faltering rust belt and commodity-based industries can possibly deliver absolutely stable GDP numbers to the exact decimal point quarter after quarter.

In fact, the odds that these reports represent anything other than goal-seeked propaganda are so overwhelmingly high that they perforce raise another more important question. Why does Wall Street and its servile financial press not issue a loud collective guffaw when they are released?

But no, the Wall Street Journal took it all very seriously, noting both the “beat” and China’s claim that the “miss” wasn’t a miss at all:

The better-than-expected result—a Wall Street Journal survey of 13 economists forecast a median 6.8% gain—is likely to renew debate over the accuracy of China’s growth statistics…….Speaking at an event to promote entrepreneurism in Beijing on Monday, Premier Li Keqiang said “even though it was 6.9%, it is still a growth rate of around 7%.”

Right. China’s #2 communist boss is out promoting the “enterprenurial spirit” while emitting central planning propaganda to the decimal point.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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