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Will the Chinese Yuan Now Demolish the “Dollar Hegemony?”

Will the Chinese Yuan Now Demolish the “Dollar Hegemony?”

She said IMF staff had determined that the yuan meets the requirements of being a “freely usable” currency, “which is defined as being ‘widely used’ for international transactions and ‘widely traded’ in the principal foreign exchange markets.”

China also overcame other hurdles the IMF had put before it, after numerous reforms to liberalize its currency and credit markets and offer more transparency. The IMF’s Executive Board has the final say, but Lagarde will chair the meeting. And the rubber stamps are lined up on the conference room table.

Some countries, including France and Britain, have already expressed support for the change. Reuters reported that a Treasury spokesperson said that the US government has always backed the yuan’s inclusion if it met the IMF’s criteria, and would “review the IMF’s paper in that light.”

The yuan has arrived – at the elite club of big sinners and currency warriors: the dollar, the yen, the euro, and the pound.

China has long sought to give its currency more global weight, both as payments currency and ultimately as reserve currency, given the enormous size of its economy. By being included in the SDR, the yuan moves a big step closer, becoming more palatable for central banks to add to their foreign exchange reserves.

Currency analysts peg central-bank demand for the yuan at over $500 billion, according to Reuters. But global foreign exchange reserves have been shrinking since last year, as this chart by NBF Economics and Strategy shows:

Global-foreign-exchange-holdings-q2-2015

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Barcelona Threatens to Print Parrallel Currency, Madrid Seethes

Barcelona Threatens to Print Parrallel Currency, Madrid Seethes

Over the next six months, Barcelona’s left-wing city council plans to roll out a cash-less local currency that has the potential to become the largest of its kind in the world. The main goal of the project, according to a council spokesperson, is to boost economic opportunities for local businesses and traders.

The idea is for local stores and residents to be able to exchange euros for the new currency at a one-to-one parity, and use it to purchase products and services at a discount or with other kinds of incentives. But it doesn’t end there: the new parallel currency may also be used to pay certain subsidies, taxes and local services such as public transport, reports El País. Municipal workers could also receive part of their salary in the new money.

Barcelona will not be the first European city to launch such a scheme. Local currencies are all the rage these days. There could be as many as 3,000 forms of local money in use around the globe, says Community Currencies in Action, a global partnership promoting such schemes that is part-funded by the European Union’s Regional Development Fund. Which begs the question…

Why’s the EU promoting parallel local currencies around the world?

According to the official blurb, it is to support local small and medium-size enterprises (SME) as well as offer new tools for social inclusion and environmental protection. This comes from an organization that has so far shown scant regard for SMEs [read… Small Businesses Dread the Wrath of US-EU “Free Trade” Deal], social inclusion and environmental protection (read this and this).

Perhaps there are somewhat less altruistic motives behind the EU’s agenda — motives such as encouraging people to embrace cashless currencies. As I warned in The War on Cash in 10 Spine-Chilling Quotes, the war on cash has moved from one of words to actions.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Quantitative Easing the Same as Printing Money?

Is Quantitative Easing the Same as Printing Money?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong;

Thank you for coming to Athens. After the presentation, there were so many questions that the moderator did not have time for. You answered some for the crowd afterwards that I had never heard anyone ever explain. You said Quantitative Easing was not money printing nor did it really increase the money supply. You also said to the crowd that fiat is not paper money, but anything declared by government including pegs.

Could you elaborate on those statements.

Thank you for your enlightenment.

GP

ANSWER: Quantitative easing is not responsible for increasing the money supply or printing money. It is a swap of bonds for cash so they are not outright printing money. It is a swap transaction. This combined with the idea that paper money is fiat and precious metals are tangible are all seriously wrong. Fiat is the attempt by government to decree the value of money. This is no different from a peg that broke, such as the Swiss/euro peg, or the Bretton Woods attempt to fix gold in terms of dollars. ANY attempt to flat line the value of money by decree is fiat, regardless of whether the instrument is paper or seashells.

This idea that Quantitative Easing is printing money is very pre-1971 thinking and is a throwback to Bretton Woods. Such an assumption focuses on the differentiation between debt and money or cash. Pre-1971, you could not borrow against government debt so there was a clear difference between debt and money. The theory that it was less inflationary to borrow than print made sense only when there was a real difference between debt and cash or money.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold & War

Gold & War

QUESTION: Does war boost gold prices?

MM

ANSWER: No. The only impact that war will have on gold is confined to either prolonged inflation or the uncertainty of the victor — the hedge against government survival. War by itself is a non-event. Gold will rise ONLY when there is uncertainty because the currency of the government will not survive a loss or a win if it is Pyrrhic victory.

NeroSesJanus

So be careful. The gold promoters will tout that gold will soar if a war takes place. They did that with Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan back in the 1980s. But war means nothing unless there is a rise in uncertainty as to who will win or the cost changes the economic trend in a Pyrrhic victory. The Romans closed or opened the door of the Temple of Janus for whom the month of January is named after based upon the existence of war. When the doors were closed, there was no war, so political uncertainty did not exist. When Rome was at war, the doors remained open as a symbol of political uncertainty. So this is a very familiar concept that has ancient roots.

Gold rose in value expressed within the local currency of any nation where its future existence came into question in both World War I and World War II. Capital will also attempt to move away from wherever the crisis might be. So war in Europe and the dollar rises. The Cuban Middle Crisis and the dollar declined as capital fled to Europe. Just because there is war somewhere, which there often is, has no impact upon gold unless your country is impacted with respect to confidence.

A Hapless Brazil Incurs Massive Losses On FX Swaps Amid Currency Carnage

A Hapless Brazil Incurs Massive Losses On FX Swaps Amid Currency Carnage

As we’ve documented extensively of late, a host of idiosyncratic political factors have served to exacerbate what was already a very, very bad situation for emerging markets.

This dynamic is most readily apparent in Brazil and Turkey, and although Ankara probably has a leg up in the race for “most at risk from domestic turmoil”, Brazil isn’t far behind as President Dilma Rousseff battles abysmal approval ratings and a recalcitrant Congress in an effort to shore up the country’s finances by convincing lawmakers to sign off on much needed austerity measures.

Meanwhile, a confluence of exogenous shocks that include slumping commodity prices, depressed Chinese demand, the PBoC yuan devaluation, and the threat of an imminent Fed hike have conspired with country-specific political turmoil to send the BRL plunging and that, in turn, has put Copom in what former Treasury secretary Carlos Kawall calls “crisis mode.”

Of course crises are often costly to combat, especially when you’re an emerging market in the current environment and when it comes to Brazil, the use of alternative measures (like effectively selling dollars in the futures market) to avoid FX reserve liquidation is now weighing heavily on the fiscal outlook. As Goldman noted earlier this week on the heels of the latest monthly budget data, “the overall fiscal deficit is tracking at a disquieting 9.2% of GDP, driven in part by the surging net interest bill, which was exacerbated by the large losses on the central bank stock of Dollar-swaps.” Here’s what Capital Economics had to say after an emergency swaps auction was called by Copom in a desperate attempt to shore up the BRL last week:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bubbles Always Burst: the Education of an Economist

Bubbles Always Burst: the Education of an Economist

I did not set out to be an economist. In college at the University of Chicago I never took a course in economics or went anywhere near its business school. My interest lay in music and the history of culture. When I left for New York City in 1961, it was to work in publishing along these lines. I had worked served as an assistant to Jerry Kaplan at the Free Press in Chicago, and thought of setting out on my own when the Hungarian literary critic George Lukacs assigned me the English-language rights to his writings. Then, in 1962 when Leon Trotsky’s widow, Natalia Sedova died, Max Shachtman, executor of her estate, assigned me the rights to Trotsky’s writings and archive. But I was unable to interest any house in backing their publication. My future turned out not to lie in publishing other peoples’ work.

My life already had changed abruptly in a single evening. My best friend from Chicago had urged that I look up Terence McCarthy, the father of one of his schoolmates. Terence was a former economist for General Electric and also the author of the “Forgash Plan.” Named for Florida Senator Morris Forgash, it proposed a World Bank for Economic Acceleration with an alternative policy to the existing World Bank – lending in domestic currency for land reform and greater self-sufficiency in food instead of plantation export crops.

My first evening’s visit with him transfixed me with two ideas that have become my life’s work. First was his almost poetic description of the flow of funds through the economic system. He explained why most financial crises historically occurred in the autumn when the crops were moved. Shifts in the Midwestern water level or climatic disruptions in other countries caused periodic droughts, which led to crop failures and drains on the banking system, forcing banks to call in their loans.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

3 Means of Waging Personal Financial Revolution Against the Banksters

Dollar Bill Chaos-1

3 Means of Waging Personal Financial Revolution Against the Banksters

The world is enslaved to an economic system designed to create tremendous power and wealth for those who own the system, while forcing the rest of us into mathematically insurmountable debt and the stagnation, austerity and poverty that comes with it.

Corrupt and patently unsustainable, the world’s currencies and financial markets are rigged, and an economic collapse is inevitable at some point. Sad but true, and the ongoing dramatic narrative of the interplay between engineered boom and engineered bust is a chief psychological tool in sustaining the popular belief that this monetary reality as the only monetary reality possible. The truth, however, is that as long as this economic reality is the reality then we will be slaves to debt economics, and the pursuit of endless growth is certain to consume everything on the planet.

The good news is that the task of migrating an entire civilization from one economic system to another is so enormous that as individuals we don’t have to feel encumbered by the pressure of having to come up with the one and only solution to save all of human civilization. We can instead be empowered by the knowledge that any meaningful adjustment we make in our personal lives is a contribution to the future realization of a greater shift for the better, sometime in the future. Our role is merely to be the trim tabs, and when enough momentum builds, watch the ship change its course.

“Something hit me very hard once, thinking about what one little man could do. Think of the Queen Mary — the whole ship goes by and then comes the rudder. And there’s a tiny thing at the edge of the rudder called a trimtab.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

 

 

The Clock Is Ticking On The U.S. Dollar As World’s Reserve Currency

The Clock Is Ticking On The U.S. Dollar As World’s Reserve Currency

The View From Hubbert’s Peak

In 1971, the American President put an end to a 2,500 year trend; the Wall Street Journal called it “Nixon’s Worst Weekend.” Considering the old boy had some really bad ones, this must have been something special. In August of that year (on Friday the 13th) it was decided that the U.S. would no longer pay out gold for its paper dollars. OPEC Ministers took note, and in September they met, deciding it would be necessary to collect more paper dollars, if possible, since gold was no longer on offer and oil was the only asset they had to sell.

It would take another two years for those decisions to matter (during the October 1973 embargo in the wake of another Arab-Israeli war). The Oil Embargo marked the end of ‘free’ energy, and kicked off a massive rise in the price of oil because the U.S., the world’s swing producer since Colonel Drake’s Pennsylvania strike in 1859, had finally reached peak production at around 10 million barrels per day in 1970. This moment is the original Hubbert’s Peak, the beginning of decline for the U.S. oil industry, at least until recently. The surge in U.S. production since 2010 has stalled out around 9.5 mb/d and, due to the Saudi decision to give the American tight oil producers ‘a good sweating,’ that rate has begun to fall in the last few months.

It is certainly possible that U.S. production will surpass the 1970 peak, but with low prices it is hard to say when that will be; it is also hard to say how long that will last as tight oil wells have a devilishly high rate of decline. It is worth noting, as Arthur Berman has recently done in his fine article, that even the best producers are losing money now, and lots more are being lost by those who are not the best. Making it up on volume is a dog that does not hunt for $45.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World Is Now “More Exposed than Ever” to Explosive Dollar

World Is Now “More Exposed than Ever” to Explosive Dollar

One of the craziest financial creations on earth, available only near the peak of enormous credit bubbles when nothing can ever go wrong, became available this spring: 100-year bonds issued by governments or companies in emerging countries, in currencies they don’t control.

Yield hungry investors in developed markets who purposefully had been driven to near-insanity and drunken benightedness by the zero-interest-rate policies of central banks around the globe jumped on them. For them, it was the way to nirvana.

At the peak of Draghi’s QE hype in April, Mexico, which has a long history of debt crises, was able to sell €1.5 billion of 100-year bonds denominated in euros because yields were even lower in the Eurozone and bond fund managers there even more desperate and insane; at a ludicrously low yield to maturity of 4.2%.

Even more inexplicable was just how Petrobras, Brazil state-controlled oil company, was able to bamboozle investors on June 2 into buying its 100-year dollar-denominated bonds.

At the time, the company had just ended a five-month delay in releasing its financial statements. It’s tangled up in a horrendous corruption scandal that has reached the highest echelons of political power. It’s backed by the Brazilian government whose credit rating, as everyone had been expecting for months, was cut to junk last week by Standard and Poor’s. To top it off, Brazil has been facing a deep recession and a plunging currency, which makes paying off dollar-denominated debt prohibitively expensive.

And it renders that debt toxic.

Petrobras, whose credit rating was cut to junk the day after Brazil’s – though Moody’s had cut it to junk seven months ago – faces other, even bigger problems: over $130 billion in debt, the most of any oil company, and the terrific collapse in oil prices.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Mede-Jean, Not Medellin

Mede-Jean, Not Medellin

Driving the back streets of Medellin a few weeks ago I found it interesting to see the various little pockets to the city. In the poor parts of town I noticed on a couple of occasions taxi drives running their vehicles on empty. I’ve seen this before in countries where there is a lack of sufficient working capital to be able to keep the tank full. Disposable income is low or non-existent…

There are, however, pockets where we found the burgeoning middle class which give credence to the statistical numbers. Here there are delightful tree lined neighborhoods, boutique art stores, restaurants, coffee shops and Land Cruisers beginning to cramp up the streets of Medellin. Colombia has indeed a rising and growing middle class, though there still exists a large disparity in wealth.

View over Poblado, Medellin

One measure used by economists to determine this ratio of rich to poor is the Gini coefficient. A Gini score of 0 would mean a perfect distribution of income and expenditure in a society and a number of 100 represents absolute inequality. This has important ramifications as often there exists a higher propensity for civil unrest as the number gets higher. Conversely the lower this number, the more equal and oftentimes stable a country. Colombia, according to the World Bank, sport a score of 53.5, though this is taken from 2012. I suspect this figure is actually lower today – it’s been falling each year since early 2000s.

The trend appears to be going in the right direction…

We’ve had our eye on Colombia for some time. One reason we haven’t jumped in earlier is that we’ve been cognizant that it’s a resource economy and when we first began taking notes we were already a decade into the resource bull market. Not optimum!

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Stock market confessions, chaos, complexity and the illusion of control

Stock market confessions, chaos, complexity and the illusion of control

In the old days of the Chinese Cultural Revolution those who said or did something perceived by the Chinese authorities to be counter-revolutionary were forced into public confessions–and then humiliated, imprisoned or even put to death.

It seems that old ways die hard. Last week the new China–the one that had thrown off the yoke of the Cultural Revolution–televised forced confessions by people who dared to say that the Chinese stock market may not be a great place to put your money these days.

In addition, Chinese government officials are cracking down on short sellers–those who borrow stock to sell, hoping to buy it back at a lower price. Officials are prohibiting large holders of stock from selling for six months, and they are flooding brokerages with easy credit to encourage those brokerages and their clients to buy stocks with borrowed money. Who would have guessed that still nominally communist China would go to such great lengths to protect the most prominent symbol of out-of-control capitalism, a stock market bubble?

It seems that the government has forgotten the essence of a marketplace of stocks, namely, that for every buyer there must a seller. When those wishing to sell shares are denied the opportunity, they are likely to become increasingly doubtful that the denial is for their own good. The whole point of a stock market is to lessen the risk of investing in a company by making it possible to sell one’s shares at a moment’s notice when the need for cash or the opportunity for a better investment arises.

Marketplaces for investments are inherently unstable. The participants react to constantly changing conditions and perceptions. If markets were entirely predictable and transparent, there would be very little money to be made since everyone’s perception of the risks they were taking and the rewards they might reap would be identical.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Don’t Forget China’s “Other” Spinning Plate: Trillions In Hidden Bad Debt

Don’t Forget China’s “Other” Spinning Plate: Trillions In Hidden Bad Debt

To be sure, there’s every reason to devote nearly incessant media coverage to China’s bursting stock market bubble and currency devaluation.

The collapse of the margin fueled equity mania is truly a sight to behold and it’s made all the more entertaining (and tragic) by the fact that it represents the inevitable consequence of allowing millions of poorly educated Chinese to deploy massive amounts of leverage on the way to driving a world-beating rally that, at its height, saw day traders doing things like bidding a recently-public umbrella manufacturer up 2,700%.

The entertainment value has been heightened by what at this point has to be some kind of inside baseball competition among media outlets to capture the most hilarious picture of befuddled Chinese traders with their hands on their faces and/or heads with a board full of crashing stock prices visible in the background. Meanwhile, the world has recoiled in horror at China’s crackdown on the media and anyone accused of “maliciously” attempting to exacerbate the sell-off by engaging in what Beijing claims are all manner of “subversive” activities such as using the “wrong” words to describe the debacle and, well, selling stocks. Finally, China’s plunge protection has been widely criticized for, as we put it, “straying outside the bounds of manipulated market decorum.”

And then there’s the yuan devaluation that, as recent commentary out of the G20 makes abundantly clear, is another example of a situation where China will inexplicably be held to a higher standard than everyone else.That is, when China moves to support its export-driven economy it’s “competitive devaluation”, but when the ECB prints €1.1 trillion, it’s “stimulus.”

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Exorbitant Privilege: “The Dollar is Our Currency but Your Problem”

Exorbitant Privilege: “The Dollar is Our Currency but Your Problem”

The Global Monetary Architecture: Change is on the Horizon

There is no better way to descibe the international monetary system today than through the statement made in 1971 by U.S. Treasury Secretary, John Connally. He said to his counterparts during a Rome G-10 meeting in November 1971, shortly after the Nixon administration ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold and shifted the international monetary system into a global floating exchange rate regime that, “The dollar is our currency, but your problem.” This remains the U.S. policy towards the international community even today. On several occasions both the past and present chairpersons of the Fed, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, have indicated it still is the U.S. policy as it concerns the dollar.

vyingTwo empires vying for supremacy?

Is China saying to the world, but more particularly to the U.S., “The yuan is our currency but your problem”? China’s move to weaken the Yuan against the US dollar is in fact a huge response to America’s resistance to reforming the international monetary framework. It’s telling American policy makers that the longer they delay acting on reforming the international monetary system, the harder and longer they are going to make it for the U.S. to climb out of their trade deficit and depreciate their currency to where they need it to be.

China has been preparing for this moment for several years by accumulating gold through its central bank but also by using banks/corporations and individuals. It has in recent years signed several international agreements to bypass the US dollar in international trade and use preferably the Yuan. It has created an alternative World Bank (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) and a gold fund to invest in gold mining in more than 60 countries.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

The “Great Accumulation” Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World’s Central Banks Has Arrived

The “Great Accumulation” Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World’s Central Banks Has Arrived

To be sure, there’s been no shortage of media coverage regarding the collapse in crude prices that’s unfolded over the course of the past year. Similarly, it’s no secret that commodity prices in general are sitting near their lowest levels of the 21st century.

When Saudi Arabia, in an effort to bankrupt the US shale space and tighten the screws on a recalcitrant Moscow, endeavored late last year to keep oil prices suppressed, the kingdom killed the petrodollar, a move we argued would put pressure on USD assets and suck hundreds of billions in liquidity from global markets. 

Thanks to the fanfare surrounding China’s stepped up UST liquidation in support of the yuan, the world is beginning to understand what we meant. The accumulation of USD assets held as FX reserves across the emerging world served as a source of liquidity and kept a bid under things like US Treasurys. Now that commodity prices have fallen off a cliff thanks to lackluster global demand and trade, the accumulation of those assets slowed, and as a looming Fed hike along with fears about the stability of commodity currencies conspired to put pressure on EM FX, the great EM reserve accumulation reversed itself. This is the environment into which China is now dumping its own reserves and indeed, the PBoC’s rapid liquidation of USTs over the past two weeks has added fuel to the fire and effectively boxed the Fed in.

On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank is out extending their “quantitative tightening” (QT) analysis with a look at what’s ahead now that the so-called “Great Accumulation” is over.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

 

Why The Great Petrodollar Unwind Could Be $2.5 Trillion Larger Than Anyone Thinks

Why The Great Petrodollar Unwind Could Be $2.5 Trillion Larger Than Anyone Thinks

Last weekend, we explained why it really all comes down to the death of the petrodollar.

China’s transition to a new currency regime was supposed to represent a move towards a greater role for the market in determining the exchange rate for the yuan. That’s not exactly what happened. As BNP’s Mole Hau hilariously described it last week, “whereas the daily fix was previously used to fix the spot rate, the PBoC now seemingly fixes the spot rate to determine the daily fix, [thus] the role of the market in determining the exchange rate has, if anything, been reduced in the short term.” Of course a reduced role for the market means a greater role for the PBoC and that, in turn, means FX reserve liquidation or, more simply, the sale ofUS Treasurys on a massive scale.

The liquidation of hundreds of billions in US paper made national headlines this week, as the world suddenly became aware of what it actually means when countries begin to draw down their FX reserves. But in order to truly comprehend what’s going on here, one needs to look at China’s UST liquidation in the context of the epochal shift that began to unfold 10 months ago. When it became clear late last year that Saudi Arabia was determined to use crude prices to bankrupt US shale producers and secure other “ancillary diplomatic benefits” (think leverage over Russia), it ushered in a new era for producing nations. Suddenly, the flow of petrodollars began to dry up as prices plummeted. These were dollars that for years had been recycled into USD assets in a virtuous loop for everyone involved. The demise of that system meant that the flow of exported petrodollar capital (i.e. USD recycling) suddenly turned negative for the first time in decades, as countries like Saudi Arabia looked to their stash of FX reserves to shore up their finances in the face of plunging crude. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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