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The Federal Reserve and the Global Fracture

The Federal Reserve and the Global Fracture

Antti J. Ronkainen: The Federal Reserve is the most significant central bank in the world. How does it contribute to the domestic policy of the United States?

Michael Hudson: The Federal Reserve supports the status quo. It would not want to create a crisis before the election. Today it is part of the Democratic Party’s re-election campaign, and its job is to serve Hillary Clinton’s campaign contributors on Wall Street. It is trying to spur recovery by resuming its Bubble Economy subsidy for Wall Street, not by supporting the industrial economy. What the economy needs is a debt writedown, not more debt leveraging such as Quantitative Easing has aimed to promote. But the Fed is in a state of denial that the U.S. and European economies are plagued by debt deflation.

The Fed uses only one policy: influencing interest rates by creating bank reserves at low give-away charges. It enables banks too make easy gains simply by borrowing from it and leaving the money on deposit to earn interest (which has been paid since the 2008 crisis to help subsidize the banks, mainly the largest ones). The effect is to fund the asset markets – bonds, stocks and real estate – not the economy at large. Banks also are heavy arbitrage players in foreign exchange markets. But this doesn’t help the economy recover, any more than the ZIRP (Zero Interest-Rate Policy) since 2001 has done for Japan. Financial markets are the liabilities side of the economy’s balance sheet, not the asset side.

The last thing either U.S. party wants is for the election to focus on this policy failure. The Fed, Treasury and Justice Department will be just as pro-Wall Street under Hillary.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Citi: “There Was Something About The Entire Recovery Narrative That Is Downright Wrong”

Citi: “There Was Something About The Entire Recovery Narrative That Is Downright Wrong”

Yesterday, we laid out what according to Citi’s Matt King, one of the most insightful and respected credit analysts in the world, is most surprising about the ongoing market selloff: the odd interplay between some asset classes which are declining in an orderly, almost boring fashion, and other assets which have crossed into and beyond a state of existential panic.

The reason for this ongoing paradox is still unclear but as Citi’s King, BofA’s Martin and Hartnett, and DB’s Konstam and Reid have all hinted on numerous occasions, the fundamental driver of everything that is wrong with the market are the actions of the policy makers themselves, who in their feverish attempt to preserve the market in the post-Lehman devastation, have made the market into a “market”, one where nothing makes sense any more. In other words, in order to save the market, central bankers broke it. 

Which brings us to the conclusion from Matt King’s most recent note, one which picks up on his observations of the all too clear dislocations and paradoxes in the market, those “things which, according to all the policymakers’ models of the world, are “not supposed to be happening”. 

And yet they are, and as King adds, “it is increasingly clear that the world is not fixed – far from it.”

The rest of King’s conclusion is a must read for everyone, especially those who think that anything in the past 7 years has been fixed, or even partially resolved.

This, then, is the real implication of widespread market dislocations. It suggests that there was something about the entire narrative peddled after the crisis which was at best incomplete, and at worst downright wrong.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Mutual Funds, ETFs at Risk of a Run Warns Stockman

Mutual Funds, ETFs at Risk of a Run Warns Stockman

In one of his starkest warnings yet, Former White House Budget Director (Office of Management and Budget, OMB), David Stockman has warned that banks and the global financial system remain vulnerable and there is likely to be another global financial crisis which will be worse than the first involving “a run on mutual funds and ETFs.”

stockman

Stockman warns in a Bloomberg interview that Deutsche Bank

“has a $2 trillion balance sheet and they have a net tangible equity of $66 billion. So that is 3% – “they are leveraged 30 to 1 in terms of net tangible equity.”

“What is whirling around in that $2 trillion nobody knows but I do think that the banks have unloaded the worst of their stuff and today it is in mutual funds and ETFs, today it is in non bank financial institutions, like all these companies that have come up over night to make auto loans by selling junk bonds as a form of capital.”

This is reminiscent of the first financial crisis and the financial collapse wrought on the world with the subprime mortgage fraud as beautifully illustrated in the must see movie ‘The Big Short’.

Regarding how ‘mom and pop’ investors and pension owners are vulnerable, Stockman says

“The dangers of a run are far more serious now than it was with banks then. Back then, main street banks did not have to mark to market most of their assets and there never was a run on mainstreet banks, it was only on a few hedge funds  … 

This time you are going to have a run of $5 trillion or $6 trillion of mutual funds. This time you are going to have a run on the ETFs. There were only $1 trillion of ETFs in existence in 2008. There is over $3 trillion now and they are an accelerator mechanism.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Stocks Continue To Crash As Oil Plummets And Gold Skyrockets

Global Stocks Continue To Crash As Oil Plummets And Gold Skyrockets

Clock Image - Public DomainStock markets around the world continue to collapse as this new global financial crisis picks up more steam.  In the U.S., the Dow lost 254 more points on Thursday, and it has now fallen for five days in a row.  European stocks continued to get obliterated, and financial institutions are leading the way.  But this week what is happening in Japan has been the most sobering.  After falling 918 pointsthe other day, the Nikkei plunged another 760 points early on Friday.  The Nikkei has now fallen for seven of the past eight days, and investors in Japan are in full panic mode.  Overall, global stocks are well into bear market territory, and nearly 17 trillion dollars of global stock market wealth has already been wiped out.

As panic rises, investors are seeking alternative investments.  On Thursday, the price of gold hit $1,260 an ounce at one point before settling back a bit.  But even with the fade at the end of the day, it was still the biggest daily gain in more than two years.  Overall, gold is having its best quarterly performance in 30 years.

Whenever a financial crisis happens, investors seek out safe havens such as gold that can help them weather the storm.  In particular, demand for physical gold is going through the roof all over the planet.  Just check out the following excerpt from a Telegraph article entitled “Investors ‘go bananas’ for gold bars as global stock markets tumble“…

BullionByPost, Britain’s biggest online gold dealer, said it has already taken record-day sales of £5.6m as traders pile into gold following fears the world is on the brink of another financial crisis.

Rob Halliday-Stein, founder and managing director of the Birmingham-based company, said takings today had already surpassed the firm’s previous one-day record of £4.4m in October 2014.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This is Why Junk Bonds Will Sink Stocks: Moody’s

This is Why Junk Bonds Will Sink Stocks: Moody’s

“Some very critical things are hidden.”

After the white-knuckle sell-off of global equities that was finally punctuated by a rally late last week, everyone wants to know: Was this the bottom for stocks? And now Moody’s weighs in with an unwelcome warning.

If you want to know where equities are going, look at junk bonds, it says. Specifically, look at the spread in yield between junk bonds and Treasuries. That spread has been widening sharply. And look at the Expected Default Frequency (EDF), a measure of the probability that a company will default over the next 12 months. It has been soaring.

They do that when big problems are festering: The Financial Crisis was already in full swing before the yield spread and the EDF reached today’s levels!

And so, John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Capital Markets Research, has a dose of reality for stock-market bottom fishers:

For now, it’s hard to imagine why the equity market will steady if the US high-yield bond spread remains wider than 800 basis points [8 percentage points]. Taken together, the highest average EDF metric of US/Canadian non-investment-grade companies of the current recovery and its steepest three-month upturn since March 2009 favor an onerous high-yield bond spread of roughly 850 basis points.

Moody’s EDF began spiking last summer and has nearly doubled since then to 8%, the highest since 2009.

The average spread between high-yield bonds and Treasuries has widened to 813 basis points (8.13 percentage points). But at the lower end of the junk-bond spectrum (rated CCC and below), the yield spread is a red-hot 18.4 percentage points.

This chart shows the average high-yield spread (blue line) and the CCC-and-below spread (black line). Note how far we were already into the Financial Crisis before both spreads reached the today’s levels: March 13, 2008, and September 30, 2008, respectively:

US-high-yield-spreads-2007-2016-01-21

So how does the yield spread impact equities and the broader economy?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Weekly Commentary: Draghi Ready to Fight

Weekly Commentary: Draghi Ready to Fight

A few Friday Bloomberg headlines: “Asian Stocks Jump by Most in Four Months on Stimulus Speculation;” “Japanese Stocks Surge by Most in Four Months as Bears Retreat;” “Hong Kong Dollar Jumps Most in 12 Years as Global Stocks Rally.” It was quite a week.

Back in early December I posited that Mario Draghi had evolved into the world’s most powerful central banker. I also stated my view that his inability to orchestrate a larger ECB QE program was likely an inflection point in the markets’ confidence in Draghi and central banking more generally. Mario’s not going down without a fight.

Global markets were too close to dislocating this week. Wednesday saw the S&P500 trade decisively below August lows. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index sank to test November 2014 lows. Emerging stocks fell to six-year lows, with European equities at 13-month lows. Wednesday also saw WTI crude trade below $27 (sinking almost 7%), boosting y-t-d losses to 25%. Credit spreads were blowing out, and currency markets were increasingly disorderly. Early Thursday trading saw the Russian ruble down 5.3% (at a record low vs. dollar), with Brazil’s real also under intense pressure. The Hong Kong dollar peg was looking vulnerable. The VIX traded to the highest level since the August “flash crash,” while the Japanese yen traded to one-year highs (vs. $). De-risking/de-leveraging dynamics were quickly overwhelming global markets.

The Italian banking sector sank 7% Wednesday, pushing y-t-d losses above 20% (down 32% from 2015 highs). Fears of mounting bad loans and undercapitalization have been weighing on Italian and European bank shares and bonds. This week also saw a notable widening of sovereign spreads to bunds. Despite a post-Draghi narrowing of risk premiums, Italian spreads to bunds widened another seven bps this week, with Portuguese spreads blowing out 35 bps. A fragile European financial sector was rapidly succumbing to a deepening global financial crisis.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Oil Crash Of 2016 Has The Big Banks Running Scared

The Oil Crash Of 2016 Has The Big Banks Running Scared

Running Scared - Public DomainLast time around it was subprime mortgages, but this time it is oil that is playing a starring role in a global financial crisis.  Since the start of 2015, 42 North American oil companies have filed for bankruptcy, 130,000 good paying energy jobs have been lost in the United States, and at this point 50 percent of all energy junk bonds are “distressed” according to Standard & Poor’s.  As you will see below, some of the big banks have a tremendous amount of loan exposure to the energy industry, and now they are bracing for big losses.  And the longer the price of oil stays this low, the worse the carnage is going to get.

Today, the price of oil has been hovering around 29 dollars a barrel, and over the past 18 months the price of oil has fallen by more than 70 percent.  This is something that has many U.S. consumers very excited.  The average price of a gallon of gasoline nationally is just $1.89 at the moment, and on Monday it was selling for as low as 46 cents a gallon at one station in Michigan.

But this oil crash is nothing to cheer about as far as the big banks are concerned.  During the boom years, those banks gave out billions upon billions of dollars in loans to fund exceedingly expensive drilling projects all over the world.

Now those firms are dropping like flies, and the big banks could potentially be facing absolutely catastrophic losses.  The following examples come from CNN

For instance, Wells Fargo (WFC) is sitting on more than $17 billion in loans to the oil and gas sector. The bank is setting aside $1.2 billion in reserves to cover losses because of the “continued deterioration within the energy sector.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Deflation Monster Has Arrived

Lukiyanova Natalia / frenta/Shutterstock

The Deflation Monster Has Arrived

And it sure looks angry 
As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.

Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.

If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering:  What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis?

Sadly, we think so. While there may be a market rescue that provide some relief in the near term, looking at the next few years, we will experience this as a time of unprecedented financial market turmoil, political upheaval and social unrest. The losses will be staggering. Markets are going to crash, wealth will be transferred from the unwary to the well-connected, and life for most people will get harder as measured against the recent past.

It’s nothing personal; it’s just math. This is simply the way things go when a prolonged series of very bad decisions have been made. Not by you or me, mind you. Most of the bad decisions that will haunt our future were made by the Federal Reserve in its ridiculous attempts to sustain the unsustainable.

The Cost Of Bad Decisions

In spiritual terms, it is said that everything happens for a reason. When it comes to the Fed, however, I’m afraid that a less inspiring saying applies:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Welcome To The New Normal: The Dow Crashes Another 390 Points And Wal-Mart Closes 269 Stores

Welcome To The New Normal: The Dow Crashes Another 390 Points And Wal-Mart Closes 269 Stores

Welcome to the new normalDid you know that 15 trillion dollars of global stock market wealth has been wiped out since last June?  The worldwide financial crisis that began in the middle of last year is starting to spin wildly out of control.  On Friday, the Dow plunged another 390 points, and it is now down a total of 1,437 points since the beginning of this calendar year.  Never before in U.S. history have stocks ever started a year this badly.  The same thing can be said in Europe, where stocks have now officially entered bear market territory.  As I discussed yesterday, the economic slowdown and financial unraveling that we are witnessing are truly global in scope.  Banks are failing all over the continent, and I expect major European banks to start making some huge headlines not too long from now.  And of course let us not forget about China.  On Friday the Shanghai Composite declined another 3.6 percent, and overall it is now down more than 20 percent from its December high.  Much of this chaos has been driven by the continuing crash of the price of oil.  As I write this article, it has dipped below 30 dollars a barrel, and many of the big banks are projecting that it still has much farther to fall.

The other night, Barack Obama got up in front of the American people and proclaimed that anyone that was saying that the economy was not recovering was peddling fiction.  Well, if the U.S. economy is doing so great, then why in the world has Wal-Mart decided to shut down 269 stores?…

Walmart (WMT) will close 269 stores around the world in a strategic move to focus more on its supercenters and e-commerce business, the company said Friday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Dow Falls Another 364 Points And We Are Now Down 2200 Points From The Peak Of The Market

The Dow Falls Another 364 Points And We Are Now Down 2200 Points From The Peak Of The Market

Falling - Public DomainIt was another day of utter carnage on Wall Street.  The Dow was down another 364 points, the S&P 500 broke below 1900, and the Nasdaq had a much larger percentage loss than either of them.  The Russell 2000 has now fallen 22 percent from the peak, and it has officially entered bear market territory.  After 13 days, this remains the worst start to a year for stocks ever, and trillions of dollars of stock market wealth has already been wiped out globally.  Meanwhile, junk bonds continue their collapse.  JNK got hammered all the way down to 33.06 as bond investors race for the exits.  In case you were wondering, this is exactly what a financial crisis look like.

Many of the “experts” had been proclaiming that “things are different this time” and that stocks could defy gravity forever.

Now we seeing that was not true at all.

So how far could stocks ultimately fall?

I have been telling my readers that stocks still need to fall about another 30 percent just to get to a level that is considered to be “normal” be historical standards, but the truth is that they could eventually fall much farther than that.

Just this week, Societe Generale economist Albert Edwards made headlines all over the world with his prediction that we could see the S&P 500 drop by a total of 75 percent…

If I am right and we have just seen a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, then the next recession will spell real trouble for investors ill-prepared for equity valuations to fall to new lows. To bottom on a Shiller PE of 7x would see the S&P falling to around 550.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2016 Will Be A ‘Cataclysmic Year’ And ‘Investors Should Be Afraid’

2016 Will Be A ‘Cataclysmic Year’ And ‘Investors Should Be Afraid’

Royal Bank Of ScotlandThe Royal Bank of Scotland is telling clients that 2016 is going to be a “cataclysmic year” and that they should “sell everything”.  This sounds like something that you might hear from The Economic Collapse Blog, but up until just recently you would have never expected to get this kind of message from one of the twenty largest banks on the entire planet.  Unfortunately, this is just another indication that a major global financial crisis has begun and that we are now entering a bear market.  The collective market value of companies listed on the S&P 500 has dropped by about a trillion dollars since the start of 2016, and panic is spreading like wildfire all over the globe.  And of course when the Royal Bank of Scotland comes out and openly says that “investors should be afraid” that certainly is not going to help matters.

It amazes me that the Royal Bank of Scotland is essentially saying the exact same thing that I have been saying for months.  Just like I have been telling my readers, RBS has observed that global markets “are flashing the same stress alerts as they did before the Lehman crisis in 2008″

RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that the major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may reach US$16 a barrel.

The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing the same stress alerts as they did before the Lehman crisis in 2008.

So what should our response be to these warning signs?

According to RBS, the logical thing to do is to “sell everything” excerpt for high quality bonds…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What’s the last dollar they can print before financial crisis?

What’s the last dollar they can print before financial crisis?

In the field of mathematics, chaos theory studies the behavior of systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.

The idea in chaos is that, like life itself, where you start today has tremendous influence on what happens next.

In chaos, even very tiny changes to initial conditions can lead to wildly divergent outcomes further down the line.

Again, think about life: how different would your outcome be if you’d been born in the next town over? Or to different parents?

The film ‘Jurassic Park’, adapted from Michael Crighton’s novel, brought chaos theory into the popular realm.

A wealthy scientist, John Hammond (played by Richard Attenborough), uses DNA derived from fossilized mosquitoes to recreate dinosaurs on a remote island.

But once brought back to life, won’t they breed?

No, says Hammond. Because all the dinosaurs on the island are engineered to be female, by way of chromosome control.

Dr. Ian Malcolm, a chaos expert played by Jeff Goldblum, has been brought along to assess the project. His assessment is skeptical to the point of hostility:

“[T]he kind of control you’re attempting is not possible. If there’s one thing the history of evolution has taught us, it’s that life will not be contained. Life breaks free. It expands to new territories. It crashes through barriers. Painfully, maybe even… dangerously…

“I’m simply saying that life… finds a way.”

Life -nature- does indeed find a way, and Malcolm barely survives into the inevitable sequel.

Jurassic Park is, of course, a work of fiction.

That central banks that exist today, on the other hand, are fact.

And it is fact that for several years they have been attempting to artificially manipulate the market.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Perfect Storm!

Perfect Storm!

One of the (many) fascinating things about this latest global financial crisis is that there’s no single catalyst. Unlike 2008 when the carnage could be traced back to US subprime housing, or 2000 when tech stocks crashed and pulled down everything else, this time around a whole bunch of seemingly-unrelated things are unraveling all at once.

China’s malinvestment binge is crashing global commodities, an overvalued dollar is crushing emerging markets (most recently forcing China to devalue), the pan-Islamic war has suddenly gone from simmer to boil, grossly-overvalued equities pretty much everywhere are getting a long-overdue correction, and developed-world political systems are being upended as voters lose faith in mainstream parties to deal with inequality, corporate power, entitlements, immigration, really pretty much everything. For one amusing/amazing example of the latter problem, consider Germany’s response to the mobs of men that suddenly materialized and began molesting women: Cologne mayor slammed after telling German women to keep would-be rapists at arm’s length.

Why do causes matter at times like this? Because where previous crises were “solved” with a relatively simple dose of hyper-easy money, it’s not clear that today’s diverse mix of emerging threats can be addressed in the same way. Interest rates, for instance, were high by current standards at the beginning of past crises, which gave central banks plenty of leeway to comfort the afflicted with big rate cut announcements. Today rates are near zero in most places and negative in many. Cutting from here would be an experiment to put it mildly, with myriad possible unintended consequences including a flight to cash that empties banks of deposits and a destabilizing spike in wealth inequality as negative interest rates support asset prices for the already-rich while driving down incomes for savers and retirees.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Iceland Escaped From The One Bank

How Iceland Escaped From The One Bank

What have the governments of the corrupt Western bloc spent most of their time doing since the Crash of ’08? We can answer this question in three parts:

1)  Creating increasingly falsified “statistics” to fabricate the illusion that their economies were not on the verge of all-out economic collapse;

2)  Hacking and slashing every social program in sight in order to generate the false savings known as Austerity; and

3) Creating new funny-money and taking on new debt at an exponentially increasing rate in order to delaycollapse, since all that Austerity accomplished was an acceleration of these death spirals.

Making these points apparent to newer readers will require additional elaboration. The starting point is the Crash of ’08 itself. What caused these nations to go from being merely heavily indebted to hopelessly insolvent overnight? That can be summed up in a single euphemism of fraud and crime: “too big to fail.”

At the end of 2008, the West’s puppet governments succumbed to History’s ultimate act of blackmail at the hands of History’s largest and most rapacious crime syndicate: the One Bank “Give us all your money, or we’ll blow up your entire financial system.” That is the real meaning of “too big to fail”: institutionalized extortion, in perpetuity.

What was the real price tag for this massive extortion operation? Forget the phony numbers published by our corrupt governments and their mouthpieces in the corporate media. The total quantum for these extortion payments was in the tens of TRILLIONS . Obviously the Deadbeat Debtors of the West couldn’t raise more than a tiny fraction of that amount of blackmail money up front. Thus, most of this shakedown of (supposedly) sovereign governments came in the form of future tax breaks and “loss guarantees.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Opinion: The banking system faces an existential threat — and it’s not bitcoin

A movement in Europe would require banks to fully back deposits

John Michael Wright
In 1666, King Charles II put control of the money supply into private hands. The privatization of the money-creation process gave birth to the system we use today.
Christmas did not offer much good cheer to the world’s bankers, who have received a sustained kicking since the financial crisis erupted in 2008.

In the latest blow, Switzerland announced that it would hold a referendum on a radical proposal that would strip commercial banks of the ability to create money, depriving them of a great deal of their profit-making capabilities. If the Swiss proposal catches on around the world, it could shred core business assumptions that have underpinned the banking model over the past three centuries.

From Babylon to central bank

The earliest banks we know of, in ancient Babylon, were temples that doubled as repositories where one could store wealth. At some point, the guardians of the stored treasure realized they could put this accumulated wealth to work, and banks accordingly began to lend capital. Borrowers would pay interest on what they borrowed, and this interest would ultimately find its way back to the lenders after the banks had taken a cut. The banks became trusted intermediaries that brought lender and borrower together and ensured neither would be cheated. Paper money emerged after people found it was easier to buy things using deposit slips from their bank than carrying gold around.

The next evolution happened when bankers realized that since depositors almost never simultaneously withdrew all their funds, banks could lend more capital than had been deposited. This allowed banks to “create” money in the sense that bankers could issue loans not necessarily backed up by hard deposits.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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