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QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, have you ever heard of a short lived Wörgl Experiment in Austria? It was shut down by the Austrian Central Bank they say because it was successful. Have you looked into this experiment they claim defied deflation and inflation?

ANSWER: Yes. This was by no means an isolated instance. True, it was touted as the “Miracle of Wörgl” during the Great Depression. A very similar “experiment” took place in the United States when over 200 cities issued their own currency. You have to understand the dynamics of the period. This was the very age of AUSTERITY where the assumption was that the collapse was due to a lack of confidence in government so they increased tax collection and cut spending, which unleashed both deflation and a dwindling money supply. This led many cities to create their own money due to the lack of money in circulation that was impacted by hoarding.

The Wörgl Experiment began on July 31, 1932, the very month that the Dow Jones bottomed. The experiment involved issuing “Certified Compensation Bills” that were was a form of local currency known as Scrip or Freigeld. The monetary theories of the economist Silvio Gesell were applied by the town’s then mayor, Michael Unterguggenberger. What differed with Gesell’s idea was that the currency would expire. Believe it or not, there are some government’s looking into currency that expires. Since World War II, Europe has issued currency that expired roughly every 10 years. This forced people to bring out the old currency to be swapped and thus prevented hoarding.

The central part of Gesell’s idea was how to stop the HOARDING of money. This is why FDR confiscated gold. He too saw the problem of people hoarding money and not spending it. This is part of every economic decline. If there is no CONFIDENCE in the future, people save more. This is simply human.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Professor Fekete About Gold And The Debt Society

December 21, 2015

Professor Fekete About Gold And The Debt Society

Claudio Grass interviews Professor Antal E. Fekete

GLOBAL GOLD: “Prof. Fekete, it is a pleasure to have this opportunity to talk to you. You are a fierce critic of the current monetary system and a strong proponent of the gold standard, particularly the variety that combines with the Real Bills Doctrine (RBD) of Adam Smith which we shall get into later. We are very much interested to learn how this interest of yours started in the first place and what led you to believe in gold and Austrian Economics in general.”

Antal Fekete Professor Antal E. Fekete (see further below for biographical details) Photo credit: verlagjohannesmuller

AF: “I have been a lifelong student of gold money which led me to Austrian economics. However, I find that the writings by Austrian authors such as Hayek and Mises on gold somehow deviated from Carl Menger’s basic idea of marketability of goods in favor of the Quantity Theory of Money. For this reason, I find they did not address the nexus between gold and interest. I take pride in pioneering a new departure to develop a theory of interest based on the idea of marketability of goods (also known as hoardability) that puts this nexus right into the center. My own view is that gold and silver are the only monetary metals for reasons having to do with the fact that they are the most hoardable substances in existence. I also believe that if Menger had lived longer, he himself would have developed his theory of interest along the lines of indirect exchange of income and wealth that are an improved version of hoarding and dishoarding (direct exchange). As a matter of fact, here we are talking about the dual theory of the evolution of direct exchange (barter) into indirect exchange of goods and services (monetary economy).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Azerbaijan Currency Crashes 50% As Crude Contagion Spreads

December 21, 2015

Azerbaijan Currency Crashes 50% As Crude Contagion Spreads

OPEC blowback continues to ripple around the world. With Russia’s Ruble pushing back towards record lows against the USD, and Kazakhstan’s Tenge having tumbled to record lows, the writing was on the wall for Azerbaijan. As Bloomberg reports, the third-biggest oil producer in the former Soviet Union moved to a free float on Monday and the manat crashed almost 50% instantly to its weakest on record with the second devaluation this year.

First the Russian Ruble…

Then Kazakhstan’s Tenge…

While Azerbaijan’s former Soviet allies Russia and Kazakhstan have moved to floating currency regimes in the past year,the Azeri central bank has questioned whether the country was prepared for a similar shift. Governor Elman Rustamov said there was no need for another devaluation of the manat, according to a televised interview broadcast on Sept. 25.

And now Azerbaijan’s Manat crashes 50%…

As Bloomberg reports, “It looks like Azerbaijan’s authorities are following Kazakhstan’s devaluation path,” said Oleg Kouzmin, a former Russian central bank adviser who works as an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow. “After devaluing the currency once, some time ago, they concluded that the first move was not enough to tackle all the challenges of a weaker oil price environment.”

Azerbaijan relies on hydrocarbons for more than 90 percent of its exports and the manat has lost almost half its value against the dollar this year, the worst performance of currencies globally.

The Azeri central bank’s reserves were at $6.2 billion at the end of November, down from more than $15 billion a year earlier.

The Russian ruble’s collapse and a 70 percent plunge in the crude price since June last year have ushered in a new era of volatility for Azerbaijan, which is also beset by challenges ranging from declining oil output to a festering conflict with neighboring Armenia.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

$20,000 Gold And The End Of “Pollyanna-ish Do-Goodery”

December 20, 2015

$20,000 Gold And The End Of “Pollyanna-ish Do-Goodery”

“They just won’t let the scales balance… it is a rampant narcissistic megalomania that somehow some guy in a air-conditioned office can best repliacte the free market and centrally plan our affairs… Their starry-eyed pollyanna-ish do-goodery never seems to pan out.“

In the flux of never before seen economic uncertainty, Stefan Molyneux and Mike Maloney discuss the difference between currency and money, the historical role of gold as money, the dependence of the United States government on Wall Street for tax revenue, the role of the Federal Reserve in the creation of unstable economic bubbles, the possibility of deflation, $20,000 gold and how you can protect yourself in these uncertain economic times.

Canadian dollar on track for 2nd-worst year ever

December 19, 2015

Canadian dollar on track for 2nd-worst year ever

Currency is down 17% year-to-date against the U.S. currency

The Canadian dollar hasn't been at par with the U.S. dollar for three years. This year, the loonie's slide against the American dollar was one of the biggest ever.

The Canadian dollar hasn’t been at par with the U.S. dollar for three years. This year, the loonie’s slide against the American dollar was one of the biggest ever. (Mark Blinch/Reuters)

Assuming that the loonie stays at current levels (and that may be a reckless assumption given the steady slide we’ve seen of late) our dollar is on track to record its second-worst year ever, according to calculations from BMO Capital Markets, with a drop of 17 per cent since the start of the year.

That would be second only to 2008’s drop of 18.6 per cent, when the financial crisis was gripping much of the industrialized world.

Economists at the National Bank of Canada put it this way in a currency outlook this month: “This year is one to forget for holders of the Canadian dollar.”

To put this slide into perspective, of course, it’s necessary to go back more than one year. Remember when the dollar was on par with its American counterpart? It wasn’t that long ago. The two currencies were at par as recently as December 2012.

Today, it costs at least $1.40 to buy a greenback that could be swapped one-for-one with our loonie three years ago.

Experts cite several main reasons for the slide since then:

Slumping oil prices. With oil plunging to around $35 US a barrel (it was around $60 US at the start of the year and more than $100 US in the middle of last year), the hit to our currency has been huge. Canada is a large exporter of oil, which is priced in U.S. dollars. Prices of gold, copper and coal, which Canada also exports in abundance, are also slumping.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Money Disappears in a Fractional-Reserve Money System

December 10, 2015

HOW MONEY DISAPPEARS IN A FRACTIONAL-RESERVE MONEY SYSTEM

Most experts are of the view that the massive monetary pumping by the US central bank during the 2008 financial crisis saved the US and the world from another Great Depression. On this the Federal Reserve Chairman at the time Ben Bernanke is considered the man that saved the world. Bernanke in turn attributes his actions to the writings of Professor Milton Friedman who blamed the Federal Reserve for causing the Great Depression of 1930s by allowing the money supply to plunge by over 30 percent.

Careful analysis will however show that it is not a collapse in the money stock that sets in motion an economic slump as such, but rather the prior monetary pumping that undermines the pool of real funding that leads to an economic depression.

Improving the Economy Requires Time and Savings

Essentially, the pool of real funding is the quantity of consumer goods available in an economy to support future production. In the simplest of terms: a lone man on an island is able to pick tewenty-five apples an hour. With the aid of a picking tool, he is able to raise his output to fifty apples an hour. Making the tool, (adding a stage of production) however, takes time.

During the time he is busy making the tool, the man will not be able to pick any apples. In order to have the tool, therefore, the man must first have enough apples to sustain himself while he is busy making it. His pool of funding is his means of sustenance for this period—the quantity of apples he has saved for this purpose.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Poison of Central Planning

December 9, 2015

The Poison of Central Planning

As is well known, central banks around the world have deployed a range of “unconventional policies” in recent years, ranging from imposing zero to negative interest rates, to outright money printing (QE).

Silvana Comugnero

Photo via americanpatriotdaily.com

We have seen a number of people argue that “QE” does not really involve “money printing”, but as we have explained at length, these arguments are misguided (see e.g. our in-depth discussion of the modus operandi of the Fed here: “Can the Fed Print Money?”).

Additional money created in the US economy since January of 2008 (inside the blue rectangle). The Fed created most of it – click to enlarge.

As far as we understand it, the first error is the belief that only bank reserves are created, when in reality, bothbank reserves and deposit money are created in QE operations (the latter is clearly “money”, as it can be used for the final payment of goods and services in the economy). The second error is to argue that because new money isn’t just dropped from helicopters (not yet, anyway), but involves asset purchases, it somehow doesn’t qualify as “printing”. However, it is important to keep in mind that the money used for these purchases is still created ex nihilo, at the push of a button.

As an aside, it has by now become clear that the ECB also creates both reserves and deposit money to the extent of its securities purchases, whereas Japan’s case still requires some digging on our part which we haven’t gotten around to yet (Japan e.g. excludes deposits held by securities companies from its money supply data; in some ways this is sensible, as it allows for a more fine-grained analysis of money and its potential uses, but it may also disguise how much money the BoJ is really creating).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Producer’s Currencies Are Collapsing As Brent Breaks Below $40

December 8, 2015

Oil Producer’s Currencies Are Collapsing As Brent Breaks Below $40

Not helped by weakness in China trade data, questions over global growth and inflation expectations are growing. Oil-exporting nations (and growth-linked currencies) are getting monkey-hammered…

Just when traders thought the bottom was in…

As Reuters notes, with lower oil prices likely to add to global deflationary concern and Chinese data doing little to improve sentiment, risk appetite remained fragile.

The Canadian currency fell 0.4 percent against the U.S. dollar, to C$1.3555. That was the U.S. dollar’s strongest level since mid-2004.

Similarly the Norwegian crown fell a six-week low against the euro.

“If you are looking to play weak oil prices, you would want to sell the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian crown,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at CIBC World Markets. “With oil prices falling and some even talking about oil falling to $30 a barrel, revenues for these countries will take a beating and hence their currencies will remain under pressure.”

The Australian dollar fell 0.6 percent to $0.7220 AUD=D4 as this week’s tumble in iron ore and the latest Chinese data weighted on the currency’s woes.

Citi recommended that investors sell the Aussie through options. “The weakness in the Chinese economy will spill over to Australia through commodities demand as well as reduced demand for the Australian dollar via reserves and other channels. This should leave it vulnerable to an eventual leg higher in the dollar,” they said.

Charts: Bloomberg

With the oil price collapse accelerating (Brent just dropped below $40 for the first time since Feb 2009), the currencies of major oil-exporting nations – such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian crown – are plunging…

The Fallacy that Weakening Your Currency Generates Prosperity

December 8, 2015

The Fallacy that Weakening Your Currency Generates Prosperity

Those demanding that the purchasing power of the currency be devalued are impoverishing everyone who holds the currency.

Of the many economic policies that are accepted as true yet are absolute nonsense, perhaps none is more achingly nonsensical than the notion that weakening a nation’s currency will magically make that nation prosperous.

Like the equally nonsensical Keynesian Cargo Cult’s misplaced obsession with “aggregate demand” driving “growth,” the idea that devaluing one’s money makes one more prosperous does not make even rudimentary sense.

If devaluing one’s currency generated prosperity, then those nations that have destroyed their currencies should be the most prosperous on Earth. The reality is those nations that devalue their currency are poor, for self-evident reasons: devaluing one’s currency lowers its purchasing power, which generates price inflation as imports soar in cost.

By lowering the yield on bonds (the favored method of devaluing one’s currency), the leadership inflates enormous credit/asset bubbles as everyone seeks to borrow nearly-free money to buy real-world assets that generate income streams. This fatally distorts the domestic economy and creates the potential for crisis in the foreign exchange (FX) market.

The obsession with devaluing one’s currency is rooted in the idea that exports are the key to growth, and the only way to boost exports in a world awash in virtually everything is to beggar thy neighbor by lowering the cost of one’s exports in other currencies by devaluing your own currency more than competitors are devaluing their currencies.

The problem with this idea is that the cost to the entire economy exceeds the modest gains in exports generated by beggar thy neighbor devaluation. In most economies, exports are a modest sector of the overall economy. In the U.S., exports are around 13.5% of the economy: $2.35 trillion in a $17.4 trillion economy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Much Higher Can The U.S. Dollar Go?

November 26, 2015

How Much Higher Can The U.S. Dollar Go?

And what will the implications be?

megainarmy/Shutterstock

Let’s start our examination of the U.S. dollar (USD) by recalling the chart from my August 2014 essay, Why the Dollar Could Strengthen—A Lot. At that point, the USD had moved modestly off its lows, and had yet to challenge long-term resistance around 80.

Here’s the same chart of the Real Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index now:

The USD broke out of its multi-year downtrend and soared above 100. Needless to say, the USD did in fact strengthen a lot. After that initial leg up, the dollar has remained in a consolidation range for much of 2015. Though it recently broke out of a wedge/triangle formation to the upside, it’s not yet clear if this is a definitive move higher or more consolidation.

Is the Dollar Rally Done?

So is the dollar rally done, or could it move higher?

The long-term chart above (Real Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index) offers some clues.

Our first observation is that trends in the USD tend to last for some time, so if this rally follows the pattern of previous rallies, it’s unlikely to have run its course in one year.

Secondly, previous rallies paused for a multi-month consolidation period before launching upward for the second leg of the long-term rally.

Thirdly, the USD rose sharply to previous peaks and then round-tripped back to the 80 level.

This raises the question: How high could the dollar rise in this rally?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Mike Maloney: The Rollercoaster Crash

November 23, 2015

Mike Maloney: The Rollercoaster Crash

An updated look on the coming global currency re-set

Precious metals sank to 5-year lows during this past week. The long painful price decline that began at the end of 2011 still continues unabated. Holders of gold & silver are understandably wondering if their faith in precious metals has been misplaced.

In this week’s podcast, we invite Mike Maloney back on the podcast. Mike is the owner of one of the largest bullion dealers in the US, GoldSilver.com, and one of the top minds we know of on monetary history. In this wide-ranging interview — which announces the release of a new educational video, The Rollercoaster Crash, which kicks off Season 2 of GoldSilver’s excellent video series Hidden Secrets of Money — Mike lays out the rationale for an approaching global reset of the existing fiat currency regimes, and why asset-backed currencies are highly likely to return in our lifetime:

History shows that whenever there is a problem with the currency, whether it is big inflation, hyperinflation, or deflation, people go back to safe haven assets. And we should be going into a deflationary episode that is overreacted to that causes big inflation or hyperinflation, which causes a breakdown of the current global monetary system, the global dollar standard that is now the longest-lived of these artificial monetary systems and has developed a bunch of stress cracks and is in the process of imploding right now. There is going to be before the end of this decade, most likely, another emergency meeting of a bunch of finance ministers and economists to try and hash out another world monetary system. It is just history repeating, and it is a natural consequence of a man-made, artificial manipulation of the free market.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is This How the Next Global Financial Meltdown Will Unfold?

November 20, 2015

Is This How the Next Global Financial Meltdown Will Unfold?

In effect, a currency crisis is simply the abrupt revaluation of the currency to reflect new realities.

I have long maintained that the structural imbalances of debt and risk that triggered the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-2009 have effectively been transferred to the foreign exchange (FX) markets.

This creates a problem for the central banks that have orchestrated the “recovery” by goosing asset bubbles in stocks, real estate and bonds: unlike these markets, the currency-FX market is too big for even the Federal Reserve to manipulate for long.

The FX market trades roughly the entire Fed balance sheet of $4.5 trillion every day or two.

Currencies are in the midst of multi-year revaluations that will destabilize the tottering towers of debt, leverage and risk that have propped up global growth since 2009.

Though the relative value of currencies is discovered in the global FX market, there are four fundamental factors that influence the value of any currency:

1. Capital flows into and out of the currency (and the nation that issues the currency).

2. Perceived risk, specifically, will this currency preserve my global purchasing power (i.e. capital) or erode it?

3. The yield or interest rate paid on bonds denominated in this currency.

4. The scarcity or over-abundance of the currency.

If we dig even deeper, we find that currencies reflect the income streams and assets of the issuing nation. Consider the currency of an oil exporting nation that has seen both its income from selling oil and the underlying value of its oil in the ground fall by more than 50%.

Why shouldn’t that nation’s currency decline in parallel with the erosion of income and asset valuation? As a nation’s income and asset base decline, there is less national income to pay interest on sovereign bonds, less private income to tax, and a reduced asset base for additional borrowing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed Induced Farce

November 19, 2015

The Fed Induced Farce

The minutes from the last Fed meeting were released on Wednesday afternoon. The minutes, along with a squadron of jabbering Fed heads lying about the economy doing great, pretty much locked in the most talked about .25% interest rate increase in world history. Evidently the Wall Street titans of greed have convinced the muppets higher interest rates are great for stocks, as the market soared by 250 points. As institutional money exits the market on these rigged up days, the dumb money retail investor buys into the market with dreams of riches just like they did with Pets.com in 2000, McMansions in 2005, and Bear Stearns in 2007.

The Fed has lost any credibility they ever thought they deserved by delaying this meaningless insignificant interest rate increase for the last three years, so they will make this token increase in December come hell or high water. They want to give themselves some leeway for easing again when this debt saturated global economy implodes in the near future. The Fed is trapped by their own cowardice and capture by the Wall Street cabal. If they raise rates the USD will strengthen even more than it has already. The USD is already at 11 year highs. It has appreciated by 25% in the last year versus the basket of world currencies. The babbling boobs on the entertainment news channels authoritatively expound with a straight face about the rise in the dollar being due to our strong economic performance. It’s beyond laughable, as the economy has been sucking wind since the day the Fed turned off the QE spigot in October 2014.

Chart of the Day

Anyone with a working brain and an IQ over 100 (eliminates the bimbos and boobs on CNBC) can see the USD isn’t strengthening of its own accord.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

50 Ways to Leave the Euro: Greece and the Global Crisis

November 16, 2015

50 Ways to Leave the Euro: Greece and the Global Crisis

A sticker reads “No” on the palm of a protester during a demonstration calling for a ‘No’ vote in the upcoming referendum in Athens on Jul 3, 2015. (Photo: AFP/Aris Messinis)

The problem is all inside your head, I told the Greeks
The answer is easy, you need only stop the leaks
The power is yours to claim the freedom that you seek
There must be fifty ways to leave the Euro
(Apologies to Simon and Garfunkel)

Following the resounding “NO” vote by the Greek people on the bailout conditions in the July referendum, the negotiations between the Greek government and “the institutions” resumed with the expectation that a better deal for Greece would ensue. The outcome was quite the contrary. Greek negotiators ended up agreeing to a bailout deal that was far more onerous than the one the voters had rejected. Why?

The harsh reality is that the Greek government is insolvent. Having been lured into the debt-trap and the shared euro currency by western oligarchs using a combination of measures, including outright fraud, Greece was forced to accept the onerous conditions attached to the first two bailouts. Now it has been bludgeoned into accepting a third. The weapon of choice is the euro currency itself which is being wielded by the European Central Bank (ECB). By throttling the flow of euro currency into the country, the ECB last summer created near chaos in the Greek economy. This, and the threat of even more severe punishment in the future, was enough to bring the Greek government to heel.

With sovereign debt up around 180% of GDP, there is no way that the Greek government will ever be able to grow its way out of the current mess. The draconian measures demanded by the creditor institutions will just make it worse. Even the IMF has acknowledged (with apparent reluctance) that some debt relief is necessary for the Greek economy to recover.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF’s Lagarde Anoints Chinese Yuan. Will it Now Demolish the “Dollar Hegemony?”

November 15, 2015

IMF’s Lagarde Anoints Chinese Yuan. Will it Now Demolish the “Dollar Hegemony?”

IMF boss Christine Lagarde is gung-ho about it. IMF staff is too. The Executive Board will consider it on November 30 and in all likelihood approve it. It will take effect in October 2016. Then it’s a done deal: the Chinese yuan will be added to the IMF’s currency basket, the Special Drawing Rights (SDR). A step toward becoming a major global reserve currency.

IMF staff had determined that the yuan meets the requirements of being a “freely usable” currency, Lagarde said in a statement, so a currency that is “‘widely used’ for international transactions and ‘widely traded’ in the principal foreign exchange markets.”

China also overcame other hurdles the IMF had put before it, after numerous reforms to liberalize its currency and credit markets and offer more transparency. The IMF’s Executive Board has the final say, but Lagarde will chair the meeting. And the rubber stamps are lined up on the conference room table.

Some countries, including France and Britain, have already expressed support for the change. According to Reuters, a Treasury spokesperson said the US government has always backed the yuan’s inclusion if it met the IMF’s criteria, and would “review the IMF’s paper in that light.”

The yuan has arrived – at the elite club for the biggest currency warriors: the dollar, the yen, the euro, and the pound.

China has long sought to give its currency more global weight, both as payments currency and ultimately as reserve currency, given the enormous size of its economy. By being included in the SDR, the yuan moves a big step closer, becoming more palatable for central banks to add to their foreign exchange reserves.

Currency analysts peg central-bank demand for the yuan at over $500 billion, according to Reuters. But global foreign exchange reserves have been shrinking since last year, as this chart by NBF Economics and Strategy shows:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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