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But, in recent months, something has changed… dramatically… Since the lows in early April, the price of Lumber (futures) has exploded 200%…

“We had to pay three times the price,” exclaims Ron Woods, the owner of Firehouse Builders, a general contracting company that specializes in building fences, decks and other smaller projects.

In fact, the surge in prices sent Lumber to its most expensive…ever!

A building boom? This is “great news” some might say as it indicates ‘demand’ is high and the economy is “getting back to normal,” right?

Wrong!

As Woods explains, “the explanation they had for us was that COVID-19 shut down the plants that treat the wood, and that finally caught up.”

So, it’s the supply stupid! And looking at the US construction spending data confirms it is anything but ‘demand’:

“The supply chain was screwed up,” said Wilson, the owner of Wilson Construction in Galveston.

“Dimension sizes were in limited supplies; even something as simple as a two-by-four-by-twelve Southern yellow pine treated was in extremely short supply.”

In fact, as Galvnews.com reports, the price changes are affecting all sorts of basic building materials, said Al Fichera, the owner of Fichera Builders in Galveston. In the past two weeks, sheets of plywood have gone from $15 a sheet to $34 a sheet, he said.

It’s normal for the price of building supplies to fluctuate, he said, but that kind of spike is unusual.

The situation now is that builders have to search wide and act fast to obtain the material they need.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Cracks in the supply chain: Is metastable turning into unstable?

July 14, 2020

Cracks in the supply chain: Is metastable turning into unstable?

You who are reading this sentence are metastable systems. So, is the biosphere, and so is all of human society. A metastable system is one that remains stable so long as the inputs necessary to maintain its stability are available.

For humans this includes food (energy) and water. For the biosphere the key element is the energy input from the Sun. For human society, which is a subset of the biosphere, the Sun is also the key energy input. Much of the energy used by humans is stored in the form of wood, coal, natural gas and oil which all ultimately come from living organisms dependent on the Sun for energy.

Hydropower is also a product of the Sun which drives the water cycle on Earth and therefore allows hydroelectric dams to be filled. Wind and solar energy are, of course, products of the Sun as well. The energy harvested by humans gets expressed in manufacturing and transportation in machines. It gets expressed in human labor, but also in the thought, planning, and communications needed to make things happen.

What we are witnessing as a result of this pandemic is a widespread challenge to metastable systems upon which our societies depend. The most obvious are those related to hospitals and health care products. We often read in the news that hospitals are near “the breaking point” as if the hospital walls will burst when too many patients crowd into the building.

What this really means, of course, is that beyond certain levels of activity, the normal systems of a hospital will not function properly for want of people to provide services, for want of supplies needed to provide those services—tests for the COVID-19 virus come to mind—for want of space to examine all those seeking medical attention and for want of money to finance it all.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

9 Things to Buy Every Time You Go to the Store

June 30, 2020

9 Things to Buy Every Time You Go to the Store

Lots of folks have mentioned that their grocery stores never fully restocked after the rush on food and supplies back at the beginning of the COVID-19 lockdown. And with the current news stories about spiking COVID numbers, it may not be long until we’re locked down again.

Work on what’s within your control

It’s important to note that even if you are unconcerned about the virus, there are a lot of things that could be out of your control in the event of another governmental series of actions:

Workplaces may close back down
Supply chains may be further damaged
The economy will take another hit
You may not be able to go where you want

Real, or not real; dangerous or not, the end result for us is the same.

It’s just like the debate over whether a terror attack in the news is a false flag or an actual terror attack. Every time I write about surviving one of these attacks, people flock to the comments to tell everyone that it was all crisis actors, the whole thing is a hoax, or our own government did it to take away our guns.

But we’re talking about survival. If you’re there when the bullets are flying or the bombs are going off or the planes are crashing, it doesn’t matter who’s behind it. Your only goal at that point is to survive it.

With COVID, does it even matter if the numbers are accurate or not? Because the government is using it as an excuse to exercise rigid control over all of us – telling us when we can go to work, when we can visit with loved ones, keeping us away from hospitals and leaving our ailing relatives to die alone, and enforcing laws about masks and appropriate distances.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The vital role local authorities could have in shaping food systems

May 6, 2020

The vital role local authorities could have in shaping food systems

In a world where most of us buy our food from big food retailers with global supply chains, and governments set the policy framework, it might not seem that local authorities have much of a role to play in our food system. However, they still have control of the ‘old infrastructure’ of markets, food safety inspections and roads, and they have much responsibility for food and food production, including school meals, meals on wheels and the provision of allotments. They are also the voice of local food, reporting back to national government, and they have a role in maintaining public trust.

Local government is therefore well placed to take a lead on local food security. That was the argument put forward by Tim Lang and others in a paper on why local authorities should prepare food plans for Brexit, recommending the creation of Food Resilience Teams that would conduct audits and make risk assessments, consulting with appropriate food-related professional bodies as well as local interests. Written in 2018, when concern was growing about the impact of a no-deal Brexit on food supply chains, it now reads as a dress rehearsal for the actual calamity that is COVID-19.

The rush on seeds, compost and local veg box delivery schemes that followed lockdown was a sign of public anxiety about the reliability of their food supply. For some, the threat was more psychological than real, as supermarket supplies are now returning to normal, but it does raise real questions about our dependency on imports. Meanwhile, for others, the loss of paid work and the requirement for some to self-isolate, has meant problems with shopping or paying for food.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Food Shortages Are Coming: This Is How You’ll Survive

May 6, 2020

Food Shortages Are Coming: This Is How You’ll Survive

We have all likely seen the reports that food shortages are coming. This seems to be the one thing that the mainstream media and alternative media can agree upon. If food shortages are coming, there is a way to prepare.

We have all likely seen the reports that food shortages are coming. This seems to be the one thing that the mainstream media and alternative media can agree upon. From the health crisis, we learned that we cannot be fully dependent on stores to have an everlasting supply of food and everyday living items. Furthermore, some states have even banned the purchase of seeds, all but making being self-sufficient “illegal.” But this is still the best way to protect yourself.

If food shortages are coming, there is a way to prepare yourselves so your family can eat healthy foods even when the worst happens. You need to make the effort to become more reliant on yourself for your food regardless of what the media reports. No matter what happens, self-reliance is freedom. This is often seen as difficult in our minds, but it can be done! Any amount of improvement in the are of food self-sufficiency will go far when the grocery store’s shelves start to empty.

Order seeds online. It only takes a small amount of research to figure out what kind of vegetables and/or fruit you can easily grow in your own yard or balcony. Ready Nutrition offers a “garden in a can” which is an excellent way to grab some seeds from the comfort of your own home. With over 5,000 seeds in the can, this is what you get in a Homestead Vegetable Garden-In-A-Can:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Food Shortages Set in Motion by Politicians

May 6, 2020

Food Shortages Set in Motion by Politicians

COMMENT: Dear Martin,
it is amazing what your computer is picking in advance. In Germany we now have the French fries crisis. (Reported now by N-TV) Do to the fact, that all restaurants are shut down, the Farmers cannot sell most of their potatoes. So we will see a lot of farmers get in financial troubles. Welcome to the beginning food crisis which Socrates is telling us.
Keep up the fantastic work
MG

REPLY: Absolutely everything is connected. Governments always function linearly and never understand that cycle exists. I got along with Margaret Thatcher because she kept an open mind. This is her address from our World Economic Conference. Here, she admits that governments think in trends, but perhaps they should think in cycles.

Once you see that everything is connected, it becomes so easy to grasp the fact that a single decision will set off a chain reaction that becomes unstoppable. Because politicians think in a linear manner, they do not comprehend the basic principle from physics which applies to everything. Newton’s third law: for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

They cannot shut down the economy in the manner that they have done, for the damage to the entire supply chain is tremendous. You already have brick & mortar stores filing for bankruptcy. This is having a profound economic impact that will not simply rebound. The closure of restaurants has wiped out farmers who sold exclusively in bulk to that market – not to local grocery stores. That capacity to produce food has been destroyed by Bill Gates.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What does a global pandemic mean for a global food system?

April 29, 2020

What does a global pandemic mean for a global food system?

In the last few weeks, we have all experienced the impact that COVID-19 has had on food supplies. With supermarkets picked clean, many are wondering whether this is a short-term reaction to the crisis or a prelude to more significant shortages as global trade grinds to a halt. Uncertainty about food availability could spark a wave of export restrictions, resulting in shortages on the global market and price spikes.

Already, there is increased price volatility due to the perceived likelihood of trade restrictions, with wheat prices climbing 8% and rice prices by 25%. Of even greater concern is Nigeria, where rice prices increased by more than 30% at the beginning of the outbreak in March in response to panic purchasing. This volatility, coupled with the domestic restrictions that many nations have placed on their citizens to control the spread of the disease, has led to worrying developments around the world, particularly in the Global South. In Zimbabwe, police confiscated and burned three tons of fruits and vegetables from farmers who had broken movement restrictions, while a stampede broke out at a food distribution centre in Nairobi, resulting in numerous injuries.

In order to head it off at the pass, the WTO, WHO and FAO put out a joint statement encouraging countries not to limit their exports of food. The joint statement by their respective Directors-General highlighted the fact that ‘millions of people around the world depend on international trade for their food security and livelihoods,’ and continued to say that, ‘now is the time to show solidarity, act responsibly and adhere to our common goal of enhancing food security, food safety and nutrition and improving the general welfare of people around the world’.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Meat Prices Suddenly Surge As Food Processing Plants Shut Down, With 1000s Of Tons Left To Spoil

April 19, 2020

Meat Prices Suddenly Surge As Food Processing Plants Shut Down, With 1000s Of Tons Left To Spoil

As we pointed out earlier in the week, China-owned Smithfield Food’s decision to temporarily shutter the largest pork processing plant in the US, based in Sioux Falls, SD, due to a coronavirus outbreak is a much more significant even than the mainstream media gave credit for. While WaPo focused on bashing the state’s governor, whose refusal to issue a ‘stay at home’ order was blamed for the outbreak, the real significant wasn’t accorded sufficient time and attention, we feel.

The real takeaway here, is that the supply chain for American staples was badly damaged by the outbreak, with the damage still more extensive and stubborn than government officials have really acknowledged. Two months on, and millions of Americans are still having trouble finding toilet paper and sterilizing wipes. A comprehensive list of products in perpetual short-supply would be quite lengthy, at this point.

For all we know, Smithfield might be only the beginning. Earlier on Sunday, we noted a Hormel foods plant in Illinois has been forced to close temporarily after a cluster of cases in the surrounding counties was traced back to workers at the plant. That could leave millions of Americans without access to popular processed foods like Spam. An unopened can of Spam can keep for between 2 an 5 years, depending on storage conditions.

If closures like these continue, it could add further strain on the supply chain. Everywhere you look, you see experts talking about an overabundance of food thanks to the closure of restaurants, which has resulted in unprecedented levels of food waste. But sadly, thanks to the way our food distribution is set up, if there’s no way to process the products, package them and then distribute them to markets around the country, then the food will spoil before it’s eaten.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s Not Just Toilet Paper, Seed Shortages Spread As Locked-Down Americans Turn To Growing Their Own Food

April 19, 2020

It’s Not Just Toilet Paper, Seed Shortages Spread As Locked-Down Americans Turn To Growing Their Own Food

Americans are panic hoarding plant seeds as the coronavirus outbreak confines millions to their homes, crashes the economy, and disrupts food supply chains. This has resulted in people questioning their food security.

A Google search of “buy seeds” has rocketed to an all-time high across the US in March to early April, the same time as supermarket shelves went bare.

We’ve done a pretty good job of documenting the evolution of panic hoarding over the last several months. Americans started buying 3M N95 masks in mid-January, then non-perishables in February, followed by toilet paper, hand sanitizer, and guns.

U.S. Facing Meat Shortage In Grocery Stores

Now apparently, plant seeds are the next big thing…

Seed companies who spoke with CBS News said they have stopped taking new orders after unprecedented demand. George Ball, chairman of Pennsylvania-based Burpee Seeds, said the recent increase in new orders is “just unbelievable.” The company will start accepting orders again on Wednesday after it stopped taking new ones for several days to catch up on the backlog.

Americans in quarantine are becoming increasingly concerned about their food security. What has shocked many is that food on supermarket shelves that existed one day, could be completely wiped out in minutes via panic hoarding. Some people are now trying to restore the comfort of food security by planting “Pandemic Gardens.”

“If I had to put my thumb on it, I would say people are worried about their food security right now,” said Emily Rose Haga, the executive director of the Seed Savers Exchange, an Iowa-based nonprofit devoted to heirloom seeds.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Food Supply Chains Beginning to Erode, Crisis Looms?

April 16, 2020

Global Food Supply Chains Beginning to Erode, Crisis Looms?

As the coronavirus continues to infect more and more people, food supply chains have started to become more strained in recent days. It was announced yesterday; the world’s biggest pork producer is closing a primary U.S plant indefinitely after a coronavirus outbreak amongst employees.

Smithfield Foods Inc. will halt its pork-processing facility in South Dakota, which accounts for 4% to 5% of U.S pork production. The company also warned that closures across the country are taking American meat supplies “perilously close to the edge” of shortfalls. This is just one of the latest examples of the coronavirus beginning to disrupt food chains at a more significant scale rapidly.

We anticipated this, as we reported on April 1 that food supply chains were in the early stages of being strained. Many countries were preparing many weeks ago by cutting back on exports to begin stockpiling. Surprisingly, dairy farmers in the United States are starting to dump milk because there was no place for them to go as the marketplace for dairy products has been affected by the closures of restaurants, schools, hotels, and food service businesses.

One would begin to believe history might not be repeating itself, but it is undoubtedly starting to rhyme. During the great depression of the 1930s, the hardest-hit industry was farming. Farm incomes dropped by nearly two-thirds at the beginning of the 1930s. Dairy farmers dumped countless gallons of milk into the street instead of accepting a penny a quart.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

In Praise of Short Supply Chains

April 16, 2020

In Praise of Short Supply Chains

As the coronavirus pandemic affects every area of the food supply chain, the ORFC team find out how Community Supported Agriculture (CSA), box schemes and others working with shorter supply chains are responding to the sudden huge demand for their supplies.

For many people farming, growing or producing food in the UK, the date of March 16th will be etched on their memory forever. This was the first of the daily press conferences given by the government in response to the coronavirus crisis and the date that Boris Johnson recommended the public no longer visited pubs or restaurants. It was also the day the great British public really understood we were facing a crisis of such enormity that our normal food supply chains could be affected and started looking for alternatives, fast.

Within days, CSAs, box schemes, independent and alternative food suppliers received thousands of enquiries. CSAs used to attracting a dozen or so new members a year had so many people wanting to sign up they were forced to close their books. The bigger box schemes like Shillingford Organics in Devon doubled their customer base while the Riverford website received 43 million impressions in one week. Meanwhile, others who supplied the catering and restaurant business were left with no customers at all and had to find new ways to distribute their food. One week later, the country was in lockdown and farmers, and food producers had been officially named as “key workers”—i.e., one of the most important groups of people in our society.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canadian Meat Industry Warns Of “Immediate And Drastic” Impact To Supply

April 16, 2020

Canadian Meat Industry Warns Of “Immediate And Drastic” Impact To Supply

We have been covering the impact of coronavirus on meat processing facilities in the U.S. and now it looks as though Canada is feeling the shockwaves as well.

The country’s supply chain could come under pressure as industry leaders in Canada have warned of “immediate and drastic” effects from the closures of key North American meat processing facilities, according to CTV.

And in Canada, a number of facilities have been reduced, including one Cargill plant in Alberta where dozens of employees have tested positive for coronavirus.

Michelle McMullen, communications manager at the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association, said: “This single facility represents just over one-third of Canada’s total processing capability, so the impacts to the Canadian beef industry are expected to be immediate and drastic.”

CCA president Bob Lowe said North American production has been “severely limited” and has called on the Canadian government to implement measures to help out Canadian farmers. “The Canadian beef industry is facing a period of extraordinary uncertainty,” he said.

He continued: “Existing programs do not address the particular threats we are facing and in fact fall quite short. These are challenging times for all Canadians; it is together that we can implement solutions to ensure healthy and affordable food continues to be readily available.”

Recall, just yesterday we wrote about the biggest pork producer in the U.S., Smithfield, who shuttered one of its largest factories after a coronavirus outbreak.

Smithfield also issued a warning of its own, stating that meat supplies are “perilously close to the edge of shortfalls”.

The company shut down its Sioux Falls, SD plant, which accounts for 4% to 5% of U.S. production. The news comes after more than 200 cases of Covid-19 were reported among employees.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

From Panic-Buying to Lockdowns of Eateries & Manufacturing: Truckers, Railroads Face Supply Chain Turmoil, Spikes & Plunges

April 15, 2020

From Panic-Buying to Lockdowns of Eateries & Manufacturing: Truckers, Railroads Face Supply Chain Turmoil, Spikes & Plunges

“There has been a clear divide between winners and losers.”

Panic buying in late February and March was followed by a sudden shift in consumption in mid-March away from restaurants, schools, college campuses, office buildings, other work locations to supermarkets, warehouse clubs, and ecommerce. For weeks, brick-and-mortar retail supply chains failed to keep up, and bare shelves in some product categories became a common sight. But the supply chains at the other end of the spectrum ground to a halt, stuck with goods that had no place to go.

This divergence has shown up in the trucking business. March was busy for truckers hauling dry-van trailers and refrigerated trailers (reefers). The Van Load-to-Truck ratio in the spot market surged by 56% from February and by 84% from March last year, according to DAT Trendlines. The Reefer Load-to-Truck ratio surged by 45% from February and by 91% from March last year.

But in April so far, all this has unwound. In the week ending April 12, the Van Load-to-Truck ratio plunged 44% from a week earlier. For the past two weeks, “Van spot freight volumes lost 20%,” DAT reported, “and national average rates lost 8¢ per mile, to $1.78, reflecting declines all over the country.”

“Reefer trends weren’t much better,” DAT said. The Reefer Load-to-Truck ratio plunged 42% over the week ended April 12, compared to a week earlier. “It’s been an up-and-down kind of market for reefer equipment,” DAT said in a blog post on April 9. “We’re not talking about a gentle rise and fall – more like a giant roller coaster.”

But it’s a very dynamic market, with reefers getting switched from the shut-down food services industry (such as restaurants and schools), to haul produce for the grocery supply chain:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Self Sufficiency Surge

April 15, 2020

The Self Sufficiency Surge

Gardening journalist, Kim Stoddart examines the grow your own phenomenon that has emerged as a result of fears around food security since the pandemic lockdown.

In the days leading up to the restrictions (and ever since), there has been a sheer frenzy of interest in fruit and vegetable growing as people seek to turn over their back gardens, patios, windowsills (and indeed any available space) to home food production. The seed companies have been so inundated that there have been many reports of websites freezing, as they struggle to cope with the sheer demand for orders.

The panic buying has moved from spaghetti and tinned tomatoes into seed and compost it would seem…

As someone who has been diligently writing away, trying to encourage organic home fruit and vegetable growing for years, even I have been taken back by the tsunami-level wave of interest we’ve seen. If you’ll pardon the pun, it’s a seed of hope that in such challenging times, so many are seeking down-to-earth, nourishing respite where they can. The move into growing your own food is a hugely positive step on a multitude of levels right now and I believe, offers the potential for a more sustainable food system and society post-pandemic.

I know I’m speaking to the converted here but concerns around food security have long been valid. As renowned food policy expert, Tim Lang writes in his book, Feeding Britain, released pre-coronavirus: ‘The UK is, de facto, facing a wartime scale of food challenge.’ He details a delicate, massively ‘just-in-time’, supply chain which leaves us open to the will of international markets and which is unsustainable in every sense. As the pandemic continues to unfold in real time, the threats become enhanced manifold.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Total system failure will give rise to new economy

April 13, 2020

Total system failure will give rise to new economy

Covid-19 driven collapse of global supply chains, demand and mobility will painfully spawn next great tech-led economic models

Is the world on a collision course with the financial and economic equivalent of a meteor impact with shock wave?

Nobody, anywhere, could have predicted what we are now witnessing: in a matter of only a few weeks the accumulated collapse of global supply chains, aggregate demand, consumption, investment, exports, mobility.

Nobody is betting on an L-shaped recovery anymore – not to mention a V-shaped one. Any projection of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 gets into falling-off-a-cliff territory.

In industrialized economies, where roughly 70% of the workforce is in services, countless businesses in myriad industries will fail in a rolling financial collapse that will eclipse the Great Depression.

That spans the whole spectrum of possibly 47 million US workers soon to be laid off – with the unemployment rate skyrocketing to 32% – all the way to Oxfam’s warning that by the time the pandemic is over half of the world’s population of 7.8 billion people could be living in poverty.According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) most optimistic 2020 scenario – certainly to become outdated before the end of Spring – global trade would shrink by 13%. A more realistic and gloomier WTO scenario sees global trade plunging by 32%.

What we are witnessing is not only a massive globalization short circuit: it’s a cerebral shock extended to three billion hyperconnected, simultaneously confined people. Their bodies may be blocked, but they are electromagnetic beings and their brains keep working – with possible, unforeseen political and other consequences.

Soon we will be facing three major, interlocking debates: the management (in many cases appalling) of the crisis; the search for future models; and the reconfiguration of the world-system.

This is just a first approach in what should be seen as a do-or-die cognitive competition.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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