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This Time Is Different!
This Time Is Different! Experts Agree: It Is Not 2008 If someone were to ask us what year it was, we would probably politely answer that it was 2016, curious to find out whether the inquirer was a) very confused, b) had only recently awoken from a coma and was still unsure of his when-abouts, or c) […]
The Negative Mortgage Rate Program (NMRP)
The Negative Mortgage Rate Program (NMRP) Something Needs to be Done – A Glimpse of the Future In the summer of 2016, US and global economic growth rates are nowhere close to estimates. In fact, a global recession, or worse, is imminent. At home, student loan defaults are now close to 100%. The unemployment rate […]
Are You Ready for a Crack-Up Boom?
Are You Ready for a Crack-Up Boom? Crack Up! BALTIMORE – The Dow rose on Wednesday morning… after Janet Yellen made soothing remarks about a “gradual” return to normal interest rates. Then investors must have realized that returning to normal is not on the Fed’s agenda. The Dow finished the day down 99 points. We […]
Falling Oil Prices Not the Reason for U.S.’s Economic Woes
Falling Oil Prices Not the Reason for U.S.’s Economic Woes Why Should a Decline in Oil Prices be Bad? The dramatic fall in the global price of oil is being cited by the financial press, government officials, and academia as the catalyst for the recent abysmal U.S. economic data which shows that the economy is, […]
China’s $6.6 Trillion Toxic Loan Problem
China’s $6.6 Trillion Toxic Loan Problem Rotting Vegetables “As long as you’re green, you’re growing. As soon as you’re ripe, you start to rot,” once remarked Ray Kroc, mastermind of the McDonald’s franchise empire. At the moment, no truer words can be spoken for China’s ripe economy. The Middle Kingdom’s 30-year economic boom is being […]
Softening up the Rubes – the War on Cash Continues
Softening up the Rubes – the War on Cash Continues More Anti-Cash Propaganda by Bloomberg Former NYC mayor Bloomberg is probably one of the worst nannycrats who ever strode upon the US political scene. No-one has done more to take the fun out of New York than this man (we have chronicled the efforts of […]
Military Misadventures
Military Misadventures No Coincidence BALTIMORE – The Dow rose 126 points on Thursday – just shy of 1%. Not enough to reverse the market’s apparent downward bias [ed note: the rebound gathered pace on Friday]. Stocks are most likely headed down because the thing that sent them up has come to an end. Here is […]
The FOMC Decision: The Boxed in Fed
The FOMC Decision: The Boxed in Fed An Imaginary Bogeyman What’s a Keynesian monetary quack to do when the economy and markets fail to remain “on message” within a few weeks of grandiose declarations that this time, printing truckloads of money has somehow “worked”, in defiance of centuries of experience, and in blatant violation of sound theory? […]
Stocks, the Economy and the Money Supply – What to Watch
Stocks, the Economy and the Money Supply – What to Watch The Stock Market and Economic Data In previous articles we have occasionally discussed the interaction between economic indicators and the stock market. Among the topics we have touched upon: for one thing, the capitalization-weighted indexes can hardly be called “leading indicators” of the economy […]
Democracy Is No Better Than a Monarchy… or a Dictatorship
Democracy Is No Better Than a Monarchy… or a Dictatorship “Flaming Lunatic” MUMBAI, India – The Dow managed a small bounce late last week. The bounce came as crude oil gushed higher, back above $30 a barrel. What next? We wait to find out… We had dinner in London last night, before boarding a plane […]
The End Is Nigh for the Fed’s “Bubble Epoch”
The End Is Nigh for the Fed’s “Bubble Epoch” Market Mythology LONDON – Twice in the last 15 years, markets have tried to correct the mistakes and excesses of the Bubble Epoch. Each time, the Fed came back with even more mistakes and excesses. Trillions in new credit… lower lending rates… easier terms… ZIRP… QE… […]
To Hell in a Handcart
To Hell in a Handcart $5 Trillion up in Smoke POITOU, France – Pessimism is a sin against God, said money manager Charles Gave. It suggests ingratitude. And a lack of faith. After all, this is God’s world. What, not good enough for you? That’s why we are always optimistic at the Diary. Things don’t always […]
The Fed’s Phony Boom Is Becoming a Real Bust …
The Fed’s Phony Boom Is Becoming a Real Bust … No More Juice Friday’s 391-point drop in the Dow – a nearly 2.5% fall – ended the worst 10-day start to a year in U.S. market history. The average stock in the S&P 1500 – which includes about 90% of all stocks in listed in the […]
Earthquake Economics
Earthquake Economics Beyond Human Capacity “The United States of America, right now, has the strongest, most durable economy in the world,” said President Obama, in his State of the Union address, on Tuesday night. What performance metrics he based his assertion on is unclear. But we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. Photo credit: Natacha Pisarenko […]
US Economy – Slip-Sliding Away
US Economy – Slip-Sliding Away Economic Conditions Continue to Worsen It must be China. Or the weather, which is usually either too cold or to warm – somehow the weather is just neverright for economic growth. Surely it cannot be another Fed policy-induced boom that is on the verge of going bust? Sorry, we completely forgot […]
