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Experts Agree: It Is Not 2008

If someone were to ask us what year it was, we would probably politely answer that it was 2016, curious to find out whether the inquirer was a) very confused, b) had only recently awoken from a coma and was still unsure of his when-abouts, or c) was a time traveler who got temporarily lost.

In the unlikely case that we should find ourselves unable to remember the year with sufficient precision to ensure a reliable answer, we’d probably consult a calendar. We recently found out that a great many people actually seem to be uncertain about what year it is. Or at least many mainstream media appear to think so, as they have launched an intense awareness campaign.

Specifically, numerous people seem to think it is still 2008. Wish that it were so – we’d be eight years younger. It all started on 24 August 2015, when two publications apparently discovered independently of each other that is was no longer 2008 and decided that this information should be urgently imparted to the rest of humanity. It all started with marketplace.org admonishing its readers to engage in mnemonic exercises so as not to forget:

1-Marketplace-dot-org-Aug-24-2015 If you repeat it often enough, remembering it will eventually become second nature… Photo via marketplace.org

On the very same day, NPR noted that a number of economists agreed: it was indeed no longer 2008. Incidentally, this was actually a correct estimate, as it was clearly 2015 at the time. It was presumably good though that some reassurance on the point was provided by experts – that is apparently helpful with averting panic attacks:

2-NPR Aug 24 2015 Lay your calendar-related phobias to rest pilgrims!

However, these efforts were evidently insufficient: general confusion about the precise year we are in must have promptly resurfaced in early 2016. In the interest of keeping the general population in the date-loop, USA Todayhad the following information on its January 8 front page:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Negative Mortgage Rate Program (NMRP)

February 13, 2016

The Negative Mortgage Rate Program (NMRP)

Something Needs to be Done – A Glimpse of the Future

In the summer of 2016, US and global economic growth rates are nowhere close to estimates. In fact, a global recession, or worse, is imminent. At home, student loan defaults are now close to 100%. The unemployment rate is climbing, as minimum wage workers finally realize that the financial pain of working or not working is identical. In Euro-land, as the weather warms up, the never-ending flotillas from Northern Africa resume swamping the Southern shores.

NIRP A black hole opens up in the world of centrally planned money Illustration by Denis Cristo

By now, the Treasury has long given up on the idea of privatizing the agencies. Freddie and Fannie will soon be part of HUD, surviving for the sole purpose of providing affordable housing for all – whatever that is supposed to mean. Policymakers have determined that the real estate market is stalling. Desperate times require desperate measures. Something needs to be done.

After an intense pow-wow between the administration, Congressional leaders and the Federal Reserve, the Negative Mortgage Rate Program (NMRP) is born. The program is simple. Homeowners will be paid to borrow. The Federal Reserve declares that the NMRP is a brilliant extension of NIRP (negative interest rate policy), because it will benefit everyone, not just the 1%ers.

fannie-mae-cartoon A good reason to break into song… Cartoon by cartoon by Steve Breen

Here is how it works:

No downpayment needed. 100% financing.

No payments needed. This is the reverse of the negative amortization loans during the subprime era. In other words, it is a negative negative amortization, or neg-neg-am loan. The loan balance will decrease instead of increase.

No need for mortgage insurance since, with no payments, there can be no defaults.

No qualifying needed, hence removing the entire cumbersome loan application process.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Are You Ready for a Crack-Up Boom?

February 12, 2016

Are You Ready for a Crack-Up Boom?

Crack Up!

BALTIMORE – The Dow rose on Wednesday morning… after Janet Yellen made soothing remarks about a “gradual” return to normal interest rates. Then investors must have realized that returning to normal is not on the Fed’s agenda. The Dow finished the day down 99 points.

We haven’t seen normal central bank policy since the Nixon years. Normal is a currency backed by gold, not by PhD economists. Only briefly and episodically, over the last 2000 years, has the world flirted with pure paper or “fiat” money. Every time, the affair was over in a short time… and regretted for a long time.

1-Fate_of_Currencies The result of the usurpation of money by government

Under a gold standard, credit comes from savings. Thus limited, interest rates typically stand somewhere in the 3% to 6% range. They do not roll around on the barroom floor with the spilt beer, drunks, and sawdust.

Real credit comes from money that is saved… taken out of the consumer economy so that it can be used for emergencies and capital investments. When it is paid back – usually out of increased output – the world is a richer place.

But try to trick the economy with phony credit – money that was never earned and never saved – and you are just asking for trouble. Said Jörg Guido Hülsmann, a senior fellow at the Mises Institute:

“In no period of human history has paper money spontaneously emerged on the free market. In all known historical cases, paper money has come into existence through government-sponsored breach of contract and other violations of private property rights.”

Guido_Huelsmann2 Jörg-Guido Hülsmann – a staunch proponent of a free market in money (you can read his book “The Ethics of Money Production” for free here, pdf) Photo via mises.de

Giving out more money always gives the economy a temporary lift. People think they are richer.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Falling Oil Prices Not the Reason for U.S.’s Economic Woes

February 9, 2016

Falling Oil Prices Not the Reason for U.S.’s Economic Woes

Why Should a Decline in Oil Prices be Bad?

The dramatic fall in the global price of oil is being cited by the financial press, government officials, and academia as the catalyst for the recent abysmal U.S. economic data which shows that the economy is, in all likelihood, sliding into a recession or worse.

Oil prices in dire straits…

While falling oil prices sound like a plausible explanation for the abysmal financial numbers, anyone with a modicum of economic sense (which excludes much of the financial Establishment) can see that it is merely a smokescreen to obfuscate the real culprit.

The fall in oil prices, while detrimental to many oil producers, should actually be a boon for the rest of the economy, especially those industries that are heavily reliant on energy. Lower fuel prices mean lower production costs leading to, ceteris paribus, greater output.

The price of gasoline has declined precipitously – click to enlarge.

For consumers, lower oil prices mean lower utility bills and cheaper gasoline, both of which mean more disposable income for either savings or more consumption. Why would greater disposable income lead to a recession?

Naturally, lower prices are not good for oil producers. But a decline in one sector of the economy (albeit an important one), does not lead to a general collapse. While the energy sector may be contracting, industries that use fuel should be able to expand as their production costs fall.

What constitutes great news in oil exploration nowadays

The Pseudo-Prosperity of the Printing Press

The Federal Reserve’s Quantitive Easing (QE), Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), Operation Twist (OT), and their variations have created a massive bubble in asset prices which is now beginning to burst.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s $6.6 Trillion Toxic Loan Problem

February 8, 2016

China’s $6.6 Trillion Toxic Loan Problem

Rotting Vegetables

“As long as you’re green, you’re growing. As soon as you’re ripe, you start to rot,” once remarked Ray Kroc, mastermind of the McDonald’s franchise empire.

At the moment, no truer words can be spoken for China’s ripe economy. The Middle Kingdom’s 30-year economic boom is being overcome with the unpleasant odor that befalls rotting vegetables. What’s more, there’s no way to reverse it.

Photo credit: fmh

Economic activity in China is stalling out. All of the sudden, the mistakes that were hidden by a growing economy are surfacing en masse. Excess capacity is turning up in all corners of the economy and no one knows what to do about it.

Each day, it seems, new rot comes to bear upon Beijing’s central planners. Somehow the miracle workers have lost their hot hand. A slowing economy, falling stock market, exodus of wealth, and weakening currency are not conforming to the graphs and statistics reported in the latest blueprint for the planned economy.

How could it be that the professional politicians, who’d sparkled with genius all these years, so grossly missed their targets? Aren’t the talented men, who’d lorded over a contrived capitalism all these years, capable of fixing this? Perhaps these are the wrong questions to be asking.

China’s Politburo – from left to right, Zhang Gaoli, Liu Yunshan, Zhang Dejiang, president Xi Jinping, prime minister Li Keqiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Wang Qishan (Wang is running Xi’s anti-corruption effort. If you want to find him, go to Zhongnanhai and ask for Wang’s wing).

Photo credit: Carlos Barria / Reuters

Individual Preferences

Simply put, an economy cannot be executed by a central government to fulfill the objectives of a five year plan. At times this may appear to be so. But these instances are mere coincidence…not the result of an erudite centralized mastery.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Softening up the Rubes – the War on Cash Continues

February 3, 2016

Softening up the Rubes – the War on Cash Continues

More Anti-Cash Propaganda by Bloomberg

Former NYC mayor Bloomberg is probably one of the worst nannycrats who ever strode upon the US political scene. No-one has done more to take the fun out of New York than this man (we have chronicled the efforts of people of his ilk in “America’s Killjoys”). It always amazes us to no end when successful businessmen – once they have made enough money to last them a thousand lifetimes – suddenly discover their penchant for socialism and State control of every nook and cranny of people’s lives.

angry midget Ex-NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, owner of the famous financial data service and professional nannycrat.

Photo via politistick.com

If not for the huge amount of capital our forebears wisely accumulated while the market economy was still relatively unhampered, Bloomberg wouldn’t have been able to amass his fortune – and yet, we strongly suspect that he has never really been a big fan of free market capitalism. His willingness to join the political class is by itself a major “crony indicator”. There is after all a big difference between wishing to serve consumers and wishing to rule over them.

The financial services offered by his company are nevertheless quite valuable – an unrivaled wealth of data is available via Bloomberg terminals and the financial commentary on the Bloomberg web site is often quite informative as well – as long as it is confined to the neutral reporting of facts that is. It is quite different with the magazine’s editorial line, which is steeped in the statism of the service’s founder.

For instance, central banking and central planning of the economy in general remain routinely unquestioned; Keynesian shibboleths are woven into the narratives as if they represented incontestable truth. It is therefore not a big surprise that the magazine is also editorializing in favor of banning cash.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Military Misadventures

February 1, 2016

Military Misadventures

No Coincidence

BALTIMORE – The Dow rose 126 points on Thursday – just shy of 1%. Not enough to reverse the market’s apparent downward bias [ed note: the rebound gathered pace on Friday].

Stocks are most likely headed down because the thing that sent them up has come to an end. Here is a chart that tells the tale:

1-stocks vs. Fed balance sheet Federal Reserve assets vs. the S&P 500 Index

As you can see, over the last six years or so, gains for the S&P 500 have closely tracked the ballooning of the Fed’s balance sheet under QE. After shelling out almost $4 trillion on bonds, the Fed’s QE is on pause. And stocks are struggling. Coincidence? We don’t think so.

Deep State Cronies in Action

We stuffed a few copies of the Hindustan Times in our bag before boarding the plane back from Mumbai. On the front page, French president Francois Hollande is receiving an awkward hug from India’s top man, Narendra Modi.

Over in the entertainment section is another note of interest. Actress Julie Gayet has put together a film production company. And lucky for her – she has backing from one of India’s biggest conglomerates, the Reliance group.

Nowhere does the paper mention that Ms. Gayet is Mr. Hollande’s main squeeze. She is the woman for whom he snuck away on a motor scooter from the presidential palace, where he lived with his then First Girlfriend, journalist Valerie Trierweiler.

francois-hollande-ladies Mr. Hollande and his old squeeze Valerie Trierweiler (left) and her replacement Julie Gayet (right)

Reliance is owned by the Ambani family, which lives in Mumbai in the most expensive house ever built. It is 60-story skyscraper, put up at a cost of $1 billion, which now takes a staff of 600 to keep the furniture dusted. On Sunday, the two events were reported. On Monday, the paper added the connective tissue. It announced that India and France had inked “$15 billion in business deals.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The FOMC Decision: The Boxed in Fed

January 29, 2016

The FOMC Decision: The Boxed in Fed

An Imaginary Bogeyman

What’s a Keynesian monetary quack to do when the economy and markets fail to remain “on message” within a few weeks of grandiose declarations that this time, printing truckloads of money has somehow “worked”, in defiance of centuries of experience, and in blatant violation of sound theory?

In the weeks since the largely meaningless December rate hike, numerous armchair central planners, many of whom seem to be pining for even more monetary insanity than the actual planners, have begun to berate the Fed for inadvertently summoning that great bugaboo of modern-day money cranks, the “ghost of 1937”.

Bugaboo of monetary cranks
The bugaboo of Keynesian money cranks – the ghost of 1937.

As the story goes, the fact that the FDR administration’s run-away deficit declined a bit, combined with a small hike in reserve requirements by the Fed “caused” the “depression-within-the-depression” of 1937-1938, which saw the stock market plunging by more than 50% and unemployment soaring back to levels close to the peaks seen in 1932-33.

This is of course balderdash. If anything, it demonstrates that the data of economic history are by themselves useless in determining cause and effect in economics. It is fairly easy to find historical periods in which deficit spending declined a great deal more than in 1937 and a much tighter monetary policy was implemented, to no ill effect whatsoever. If one believes the widely accepted account of the reasons for the 1937 bust, how does one explain these seeming “aberrations”?

The DJIA in 1937 (eventually, an even lower low was made in 1938, see also next chart) – click to enlarge.

As we often stress, economics is a social science and therefore simply does not work like physics or other natural sciences. Only economic theory can explain economic laws – while economic history can only be properly interpreted with the aid of sound theory.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stocks, the Economy and the Money Supply – What to Watch

January 27, 2016

Stocks, the Economy and the Money Supply – What to Watch

In previous articles we have occasionally discussed the interaction between economic indicators and the stock market. Among the topics we have touched upon: for one thing, the capitalization-weighted indexes can hardly be called “leading indicators” of the economy anymore. In fact, if one studies specific major turning points over the past two decades or so, it is clear that the market seems to “know” very little (at least not in advance).

The impression one gets is actually that the major indexes are acting like coincident rather than leading indicators of the economy. However, the market is not completely bereft of leading indicator qualities. What seems to be leading the economy are not the cap-weighted indexes, but market internals.

Even while the SPX still rose, resp. went sideways in 2015, market internals began to deteriorate (here shown: S&P hi/low percent, NYSE a/d line, SPX stocks above 200 & 50 day ma) – click to enlarge.

We believe we can explain why this is the case. In an economy in which the money supply can be expanded ex nihilo by central planners and/or commercial banks, the pace of money supply growth tends to lead both stock market returns and the performance of the economy as measured in terms of aggregate data.

Readers may have noticed our habit of adding the qualifier “as measured by aggregate data”. We are doing this because the boom period is a kind of Potemkin village: seemingly busy economic activity and surging accounting profits are masking the fact that a great deal of capital is consumed. Simply put, accounts are falsified, because loose monetary policy distorts and falsifies the entire economy’s price structure.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Democracy Is No Better Than a Monarchy… or a Dictatorship

January 26, 2016

Democracy Is No Better Than a Monarchy… or a Dictatorship

“Flaming Lunatic”

MUMBAI, India – The Dow managed a small bounce late last week. The bounce came as crude oil gushed higher, back above $30 a barrel. What next? We wait to find out…

We had dinner in London last night, before boarding a plane for India.

“A large part of the U.S. population must feel threatened by any kind of intelligence,” said a voice at a nearby table. A group of Englishmen were discussing U.S. politics. We eavesdropped.

“Can you imagine? That Trump… he seems like a flaming lunatic. His campaign is nothing but telling voters that he’s a good negotiator. He thinks it’s all just making deals with people. All that matters is getting a good deal.

palin-endorses-trump-cartoon-luckovich Implanting a thought…

“Now he thinks people will vote for him because he got an endorsement from that total idiot Palin. What is the matter with Americans? How did they get to be so stupid?”

We almost got up from our chair. It was time to straighten these Brits out. But what would we say? Besides, it is a fair question: How did Americans come to be so stupid?

Of course, the same question could be asked of almost any nation. And it being Friday as we write this, and we being laid low by an epizootic and airline travel, we dug into our archives for an answer…

The American Brain

[Ed note: Originally published on November 5, 2004]

“There is no point in asking why Americans get caught up in the presidential election ritual, even when the campaigns are obviously manipulative and the candidates are far from the best the country has to offer. […] All rituals rest upon faith, not logic; all involve suspension of disbelief; and all seem as reasonable to the faithful as they seem absurd to unbelievers.”

– Forrest McDonald, The American Presidency

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The End Is Nigh for the Fed’s “Bubble Epoch”

January 24, 2016

The End Is Nigh for the Fed’s “Bubble Epoch”

Market Mythology

LONDON – Twice in the last 15 years, markets have tried to correct the mistakes and excesses of the Bubble Epoch. Each time, the Fed came back with even more mistakes and excesses. Trillions in new credit… lower lending rates… easier terms… ZIRP… QE… and the Twist!

MW-BX052_FOMC_m_MG_20140319160153 The gaggle of price-fixers the job of which is to regularly falsify one of the most important price signals in the economy. The idea that the economy can be “improved” by the interventions of a handful of people who have zero practical economic experience and rely on extremely dubious theories to guide their decisions is downright bizarre. Who can possibly believe that this works? It is a huge farce – one that is very dangerous for prosperity and economic progress.

Photo credit: Bloomberg

Over the short run, markets respond to myths. Investors are ready to believe almost anything… for a while. But over the long run, there is death and destruction – a reality outside of what we believe.

No matter how badly investors want asset prices to go up, for example, asset prices don’t always comply. On Wednesday, the Dow sank 560 points in the first few hours of trading. It then recovered half of those losses to end the day down 249 points – for a 1.5% fall.

U.S. crude oil plunged below $27 a barrel – the lowest level in 13 years. The financial media don’t know what to do. Typically, they downplay a bear market as long as they can… explaining the many reasons why the sell-off is “overdone” and why the “bottom” has already been found.

The Wall Street Journal, for example, tells us that the “market’s panic is incongruent” with economic reality. Yahoo! Finance already sees “signs of capitulation.” It offers advice on “how to trade a bear market,” too.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

To Hell in a Handcart

January 21, 2016

To Hell in a Handcart

$5 Trillion up in Smoke

POITOU, France – Pessimism is a sin against God, said money manager Charles Gave. It suggests ingratitude. And a lack of faith. After all, this is God’s world. What, not good enough for you?

That’s why we are always optimistic at the Diary. Things don’t always go the way we would like, but they always go the way they should. Yes, the world may be headed to Hell in a handcart… but it’s for its own damned good!

To Hell in a Handbasket Mild surprise down in hell at the timing, but as we all know, what needs to happen always happens – just never when it’s supposed to. Cartoon by Scott Hilburn

It is cold and snowy this morning. But we are crossing to the sunny side of the street today. Look how easy it is. About $6 trillion has been lost in the world’s stock markets so far this year. Well, boo-hoo! It was only “on paper” anyway.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey – which takes the pulse of New York’s manufacturing industry – just hit its lowest level since the last recession. But what do factories make? Stuff… and do we really need more stuff?

New York City is also reporting retrenchment in its luxury real estate market. Prices are down for the last eight months in a row. To that, we say: It serves those rich SOBs on Wall Street right. They bought their digs with money they got from the Fed on super sweet terms. It’s a pleasure to see them take a loss.

You see what we mean? No matter how dreary the weather, you can always use your portfolio statements to start a cozy fire.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed’s Phony Boom Is Becoming a Real Bust …

January 19, 2016

The Fed’s Phony Boom Is Becoming a Real Bust …

No More Juice

Friday’s 391-point drop in the Dow – a nearly 2.5% fall – ended the worst 10-day start to a year in U.S. market history.

The average stock in the S&P 1500 – which includes about 90% of all stocks in listed in the U.S. – is now down more than 26% from its high. The standard definition of a bear market is a sustained fall of 20% or more from recent highs.

bear The bear got loose somehow. Who let him out? Photo credit: Lukas Holas

“Woeful earnings,” suggested MarketWatch as a cause. Another guess: “The stock market is freaking out over Trump and Sanders.” Barron’s was closer to the real source of the plunge: “Without Fed’s Juice, Market Suffers Withdrawal Pains.”

In 1971, phony fiat money replaced the old gold-backed dollar… and money that came “out of nothing” replaced real savings. At first, inflation rates rose. No one trusted the new fiat dollar. But then, incoming Fed chairman Paul Volcker showed the world that the U.S. could manage its currency in a responsible way.

Consumer price inflation fell, along with interest rates. Debt increased. And gradually, every Middlesex village and farm has become dependent on more and more bank credit.

The dot-com bubble blew up in 2000. The mortgage finance bubble blew up in 2007. Now, it looks as though another bubble is deflating…

DJIA, daily – there’s not enough juice left to keep all the bubble balls in the air… – click to enlarge.

Booze Binge

In 2008, the Fed cut rates all the way down to the “zero bound” to try to keep the jig going. But after seven years of its emergency zero-interest-rate policy (ZIRP), it became obvious that something had to be done to get back to “normal.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Earthquake Economics

January 16, 2016

Earthquake Economics

Beyond Human Capacity

“The United States of America, right now, has the strongest, most durable economy in the world,” said President Obama, in his State of the Union address, on Tuesday night. What performance metrics he based his assertion on is unclear. But we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

A collapsed building is seen in Concepcion , Chile, Thursday, March 4, 2010. An 8.8-magnitude earthquake struck central Chile early Saturday, causing widespread damage. (AP Photo/ Natacha Pisarenko) Photo credit: Natacha Pisarenko / AP

Maybe this is so…right now. But it isn’t eternal. For at grade, hidden in plain sight, a braid of positive and negative surface flowers indicate an economic strike-slip fault extends below. What’s more, the economy’s foundation dangerously straddles across it.

1-gdpnow-forecast-evolution Actually, it probably isn’t so – the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now measure, which has proven surprisingly accurate thus far, indicates that the US economy is hanging by a thread – and the above chart does now yet include the string of horrendous economic data released since January 8.

Something must slip. A massive vertical rupture is coming that will collapse everything within a wide-ranging proximity. It is not a matter of if it will come. But, rather, of when…regardless of what the President says.

Here at the Economic Prism we have no reservations about the U.S. – or world – economy. We see absurdities and inconsistencies. We see instabilities perilously pyramided up, which could rapidly cascade down. We just don’t know when.

Comprehending and connecting the infinite nodes and relationships within an economy are beyond even the most intelligent human’s capacity. Cause and effect chains are not always immediately observable. Feedback loops are often circuitous and unpredictable. What is at any given moment may not be what it appears.

Not Without Consequences

For instance, the Federal Reserve quadrupled its balance sheet following the 2008 financial crisis, yet consumer prices hardly budged. Undeniably, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index is subject to gross manipulation. We’re not endorsing the veracity of the CPI.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Economy – Slip-Sliding Away

January 16, 2016

US Economy – Slip-Sliding Away

Economic Conditions Continue to Worsen

It must be China. Or the weather, which is usually either too cold or to warm – somehow the weather is just neverright for economic growth. Surely it cannot be another Fed policy-induced boom that is on the verge of going bust? Sorry, we completely forgot – the Fed is never at fault when the economy suffers a boom-bust cycle. That only happens because we have “too few regulations” (that’s what Mr. Bernanke said after the 2008 bust – no kidding).

forgotten-heritage

Photo credit: Matthew Emmett

No matter what economic data releases one looks at lately, one seems more horrendous than the next. This is apart from payrolls of course, which are not only a lagging indicator, but are apparently a number that is occasionally made up out of whole cloth – such as in December, when 281,000 of the reported 292,000 in non-farm payroll gains were the result of “seasonal adjustment”, which is bureaucrat-speak for “didn’t actually happen”.

Today the markets were inundated with data that strongly suggest that the negative trends observed over much of 2015 continue to accelerate. In what is by now a well-worn tradition, Fed district surveys of the manufacturing sector continued their decline with today’s release of the Empire State survey. One no longer risks being accused of hyperbole by calling its recent trend a “collapse”:

Empire State Survey, general business conditions index. Such readings are usually not seen during economic expansions – click to enlarge.

As is often the case, not a single economist came even remotely close to correctly forecasting this meltdown. As Mish noted earlier today, it was quite a big miss:

“The Econoday Consensus estimate was for a slight improvement to -4 from a November reading of -4.59. The actual result was -19.37 with the lowest economic estimate -7.50.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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