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The Shale Delusion: Why The Party’s Over For U.S. Tight Oil

The Shale Delusion: Why The Party’s Over For U.S. Tight Oil The party is over for tight oil. Despite brash statements by U.S. producers and misleading analysis by Raymond James, low oil prices are killing tight oil companies. Reports this week from IEA and EIA paint a bleak picture for oil prices as the world production surplus continues. EIA […]

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Why Saudi Arabia’s Pursuit Of Market Share Is Self-Defeating

Why Saudi Arabia’s Pursuit Of Market Share Is Self-Defeating The Saudis are on track to sacrifice ~$100 billion in crude export revenues in 2015, or 45 percent of 2014’s ~$219 billion in crude export revenues, in pursuit of market share, the measure of success Saudi Oil Minister Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi announced at the November […]

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The Peak Oil Crisis: A $4 Trillion Hole

The Peak Oil Crisis: A $4 Trillion Hole Last week reporters at the Wall Street Journal sat down and did some arithmetic. They looked at how much oil was selling for in the spring of 2014 (over $100 a barrel); looked at what it is selling for today (under $50); and concluded that if prices […]

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Oil Price Rebound Looking Unlikely

Oil Price Rebound Looking Unlikely Oil prices may have firmed up a bit this spring, but we could be heading into another protracted period of weak prices. First there are the demand risks. The Chinese stock market turmoil raises serious concerns over a potential financial crisis, which, needless to say, would be negative for oil prices. The […]

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Global Cooling Alert: World Faces Longest Oil Glut In Three Decades

Global Cooling Alert: World Faces Longest Oil Glut In Three Decades The world is on the brink of the longest-lasting oil glut in at least three decades and OPEC’s quest for market share makes it almost unavoidable. Oil supply has exceeded demand globally for the past five quarters, already the most enduring glut since the […]

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Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High

Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High When forecasting how much oil will be available in future years, a standard approach seems to be the following: Figure out how much GDP growth the researcher hopes to have in the future. “Work backward” to see how much oil is needed, based on how much […]

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Global Oil Shortage Before Year’s End? Surely Not…

Global Oil Shortage Before Year’s End? Surely Not… Now that OPEC has left its production quota unchanged, the world will continue to see a glut in supplies, right? Some analysts aren’t so sure. Sanford C. Bernstein predicts that by the end of the year global demand will outstrip supply by an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day. […]

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OPEC according to the EIA

OPEC according to the EIA OPEC publishes monthly production data for all OPEC nations in their Monthly Oil Market Report. The data crude oil production only and does not include condensate. I have found the data to be highly accurate and any errors are corrected in the next month’s report or the month following that. The […]

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What Does Exxon Know That We Don’t?

What Does Exxon Know That We Don’t? Forecasts from the IEA and Goldman Sachs this week are trying to say that crude barrels are still overpriced – but the market isn’t listening.  I’ve been convinced that crude prices above $60 are counterproductive as Goldman said in their recent note – but other factors are continuing […]

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This May Just Be The Start Of The Oil Price War Says IEA

This May Just Be The Start Of The Oil Price War Says IEA Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi may be one of the most powerful individuals in the global oil industry. After all, as the top oil official in arguably the world’s most influential oil-producing country, he has enormous influence. But for all his power, […]

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Are We Witnessing The Beginning Of The End For Fossil Fuels?

Are We Witnessing The Beginning Of The End For Fossil Fuels? Bloomberg recently declared the era of fossil fuels irrevocably in decline: “The world is now adding more capacity for renewable power each year than coal, natural gas, and oil combined. And there’s no going back.” The sea change in how we power our economies officially […]

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Global oil glut grows to 2 million barrels a day as OPEC pumps more

Global oil glut grows to 2 million barrels a day as OPEC pumps more International Energy Agency predicts oversupply of refined fuel, but points to rising demand Fresh data on worldwide crude production shows the global glut of oil is growing with Saudi Arabia’s production near record highs, according to the International Energy Agency. And […]

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Can We Really Cut CO2 Levels By Leaving Fossil Fuels In The Ground?

Can We Really Cut CO2 Levels By Leaving Fossil Fuels In The Ground? Population growth in the world’s developing economies, particularly Africa and Asia, has been and will continue to be a primary driver of demand for energy resources into the near and distant future. As more babies are delivered into the world, they will […]

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New IEA Data May Indicate A Slowdown In Rig Count Drop

New IEA Data May Indicate A Slowdown In Rig Count Drop The IEA OMR is out early this month hence April’s edition of vital statistics comes early. The March 2015 Vital Statistics is here. EIA oil price and Baker Hughes rig count charts are updated to the end of March 2015, the remaining oil production charts are updated to February […]

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Dramatic UK Emission Drop Just a ‘Taste of What Could Be Achieved

Dramatic UK Emission Drop Just a ‘Taste of What Could Be Achieved UK greenhouse gas emissions fell by 8.4 percent between 2013 and 2014, according to official figures released today by the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC). Carbon emissions fell by 9.7 percent. A 23 percent reduction in coal use and record warm temperatures were the main […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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