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Overstock Holds 3 Months Of Food, $10 Million In Gold For Employees In Preparation For The Next Collapse

October 25, 2015

Overstock Holds 3 Months Of Food, $10 Million In Gold For Employees In Preparation For The Next Collapse

Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne’s crusade against naked short sellers in particular, and Wall Street and the Federal Reserve in general, has long been known and thoroughly documented (most recently with his push to use blockchain technology to revolutionize the multi-trillion repo market).

But little did we know that Overstock’s Chairman Jonathan Johnson is as vocal an opponent of the fiat system, and Wall Street’s tendency to create bubble after bubble, if not more than Byrne himself. That, and that his company actually puts its money where its gold-backed money is and in preparation for the next upcoming crash, has taken unprecedented steps to prepare for what comes next.

One week ago Johnson, who is also candidate for Utah governor, spoke at the United Precious Metals Association, or UPMA, which we first profiled a month ago, and which takes advantage of Utah’s special status allowing the it to use gold as legal tender, offering gold and silver-backed accounts. As a reminder, the UPMA takes Federal Reserve Notes (or paper dollars) which it then translates into golden dollars (or silver). The golden dollars are based off the $50 one ounce gold coins produced by the Treasury of The United States. They are legal tender under the law and are protected as such.

What did Johnson tell the UPMA? Here are some choice quotes:

We are not big fans of Wall Street and we don’t trust them. We foresaw the financial crisis, we fought against the financial crisis that happened in 2008; we don’t trust the banks still and we foresee that with QE3, and QE4 and QE n that at some point there is going to be another significant financial crisis.

So what do we do as a business so that we would be prepared when that happens. One thing that we do that is fairly unique: we have about $10 million in gold, mostly the small button-sized coins, that we keep outside of the banking system.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Here’s Why Housing Must be Propped Up

October 15, 2015

Here’s Why Housing Must be Propped Up

If housing tanks, the last prop under the veneer of middle class wealth collapses.

The Powers That Be have gone to extraordinary lengths to prop up housing by whatever means are necessary since the collapse of the housing bubble in 2008: the Federal Reserve has pushed mortgages rates down by buying mortgage-backed securities, the federal housing agencies (FHA, VA) have issued millions of low-down payment loans, and the federal government has essentially taken over the mortgage industry, backing 90+% of all mortgage loans.

Why is the status quo so keen on propping up housing? If we examine this chart of U.S. and Chinese household assets, we understand why Chinese authorities would be keen to prop up housing values–75% of China’s household assets are in real estate. Meanwhile, U.S. household assets are predominantly financial:

So why are U.S. authorities going all out to prop up housing if it represents such a modest share of total household wealth? I see two dynamics at work.

The majority of household assets are owned by the top 10%, and this includes the majority of financial assets. The top .1% own 22% of all U.S. household wealth, the top 1% own 35% and the top 10% own 75%.

Households below the top 10% may have financial assets such as insurance policies, 401K accounts or pensions funded by employers, but a house is typically the largest store of value the household owns.

If you want to make the top 1% and top 10% happy, you prop up stocks and bonds. if you want to make the 60% of the populace who own a home happy, you prop up housing.

2. Housing is the only real source of the wealth effect for households below the top 10%.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Waiting to be SKEWered?

October 15, 2015

Waiting to be SKEWered?

SKEW Goes Pear-Shaped

Back in 1998, at the height of the Russian crisis, the CBOE SKEW Index reached its all time high of 146.88. Previously very high values were seen on the eve of the 1990 recession, and in March 2006 it spiked again when sudden worries about the housing bubble surfaced.

Black-Swan lr “There are no black swans” they said …

Over the past two years, SKEW has begun to act totally crazy, regularly rising to rarely before seen levels. In late 2014 and again in September this year, moves to around the 140 level have become quite frequent. On Tuesday it broke its Russian crisis all time high, spiking briefly to 148.91.

SKEW spikes to a new all time high on Monday – click to enlarge.

“What the hell is SKEW?” we hear you ask. Here is the explanation from the CBOE, where SKEW lives (or rather, where the options that are used in its calculation live):

“The CBOE Skew Index – referred to as “SKEW” – is an option-based indicator that measures the perceived tail risk of the distribution of S&P 500 log returns at a 30- day horizon. Tail risk is the risk associated with an increase in the probability of outlier returns, returns two or more standard deviations below the mean. Think stock market crash, or black swan. This probability is negligible for a normal distribution, but can be significant for distributions which are skewed and have fat tails. As illustrated in the chart below, the distribution of S&P 500 log returns has a sizable left tail. This makes it riskier than a normal distribution with the same mean and the same volatility. SKEW quantifies the additional risk.

SKEW is derived from the price of S&P 500 skewness. That price is calculated from the prices of S&P 500 options using the same type of algorithm as for the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The details of the SKEW algorithm and a sample calculation are presented in the SKEW White Paper http://www.cboe.com/SKEW .

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bubbles and Backlashes

October 13, 2015

Bubbles and Backlashes

Image: trialsanderrors/Flickr CC.

Financial markets have been turbulent as of late with no end in sight. A sagging global economy could overwhelm America’s recovery efforts with toxic effects on key climate change and clean energy initiatives now underway.

The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to postpone an interest rate hike is but one reflection of their deep global concern. In a world of multiple, interrelated systems, a sneeze in one global system could cause pneumonia in another; ultimately triggering a perfect storm.

As the global economy worsens and bubbles start to burst, an over-fixation on economic recovery could relegate promising clean energy and climate change initiatives to a secondary status, or worse. The geopolitical blips on the radar screen are ominous. Consider this:

1.We’ve been warned

Global asset, credit and debt bubbles are on the cusp of bursting. My email “News Flash” warned of this last May (See: “Bubblemania is Contagious – Five Warning Signs”). The punctured commodity bubble has already demonstrated the economic fallout to nations exporting raw materials. Imagine the impact of multiple bubble bursts all at the same time. Bottom line: Bubbles always burst; it’s not about if, but when.

2. American limitations

America’s economy is strong compared to many others, but not strong enough to lift the world back into prosperity. In fact, the opposite could occur. China’s declining growth rate (See: “The Chinese Ripple Effect“), deep economic malaise in Europe, Japan, Russia, Brazil, OPEC nations and others, and a slowdown in global trade are taking a toll. Bottom line: Global economic headwinds will be difficult to overcome in the foreseeable future.

3. Low on ammo

In an effort to recover from the Great Recession of 2008 and stimulate growth, our Federal Reserve and central banks worldwide have “printed” money, devalued currencies, created an easy money environment and purchased debt (Quantitative Easing). In addition, governmental fiscal policies have piled on huge deficits and debt to stimulate growth.

– See more at: http://transitionvoice.com/2015/10/bubbles-and-backlashes/#sthash.XM1igyNv.dpuf

The Peak in Government? A Low in Interest Rates?

September 30, 2015

The Peak in Government? A Low in Interest Rates?

We have warned that capital is in a flight to quality, therefore creating the bubble in government paper. We also warned that the bond market on the long-term peaked in April/May and that we should expect a further rally in the short-end. This significant move has unfolded right before our eyes. The fact that the bonds have peaked in advance, yet we have the short-end rising into this period, reflects the stark reality that capital does not trust government long-term.

The Fed has been warning that they must raise rates to reestablish “normalcy” to the yield curve. No one in their right mind should be buying long-term paper at these rates. The capital has been heading into an even shorter investment cycle, and this presents a highly dangerous potential on the horizon.

FEDFOR-M 9-28-2015

What is the concern? With capital consolidating into short maturities, this means that any change in rates will have a far more immediate impact upon the sovereign debts of all nations. The typical dollar bears say, “Oh, well China sold a huge amount of bonds!” and they twist this into somehow being bearish for the dollar. China is following the trend: sell long-term and move short-term.

We can see that volatility beginning to rise from October moving forward. We are looking at a panic cycle that appears in the U.S. Fed funds by February, followed by another next August.

This is confirming the change in trend that we see with 2015.75. It is not a monumental crash in stocks, nor is it the end of the world with the blood moon. This is the peak in government. As time begins to move forward, you will look back at this turning point as rather significant. It may be more than an announcement that there is water on Mars. We have had so many things happen this week, right down to a meeting between Obama and Putin at the United Nations.

So grab a drink. You might need one as we start to move forward away from the change in trend — 2015.75.

This Bubble’s Days Are Numbered—–Market Tops Are Sprouting Up Everywhere

September 26, 2015

This Bubble’s Days Are Numbered—–Market Tops Are Sprouting Up Everywhere

I have an important update regarding how far we could see the market drop in the short days and weeks ahead…

I’ve been warning for months that it looks like this bubble may finally be peaking.

I’ve warned that it’s best to get out of stocks a little early rather than a bit late. That’s because, when bubbles finally break, they burst rapidly – as much as 40% in the first few months. It can make markets very volatile, up and down, hence harder to predict and adjust to. If this is indeed the end, we’ve only taken the first step down a long ladder.

In retrospect, the odds keep going up that we saw a major long-term top on May 19.

The first warning sign was that, as stocks made little progress from late December into May, we saw a series of major tops around the world. And that to me is no small matter.

Dow Transports peaked in late November and are down 20% since.

Dow Utilities peaked in late January and are down 18%.

The German DAX and British FTSE both peaked in April and are down 24% and 19%, respectively.

The Dow and S&P 500 appear to have peaked in late May. The Dow’s down 16% since then.

Then in June came China’s Shanghai Composite index – one of the leading dominoes to fall – and it’s crashed 42%. The Russell 2000 index also peaked in June and is down a little more than 12%.

And finally, our Nasdaq, which peaked in late July, is recently down 21%.

Four of those are undeniably in bear territory. The Shanghai, DAX, Nasdaq and Dow Transports have crossed that 20% threshold that literally defines a bear market. A drop like that only raises the chances that a bubble is finally over. But thus far technical indicators only show that the Shanghai and DAX have peaked for good.

And all of this is just the first warning sign…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

History Doesn’t Go In a Straight Line

September 23, 2015

History Doesn’t Go In a Straight Line

Noam Chomsky on Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn, and the potential for ordinary people to make radical change.

Noam Chomsky in 2011. Andrew Rusk / Flickr

Throughout his illustrious career, one of Noam Chomsky’s chief preoccupations has been questioning — and urging us to question — the assumptions and norms that govern our society.

Following a talk on power, ideology, and US foreign policy last weekend at the New School in New York City, freelance Italian journalist Tommaso Segantini sat down with the eighty-six-year-old to discuss some of the same themes, including how they relate to processes of social change.

For radicals, progress requires puncturing the bubble of inevitability: austerity, for instance, “is a policy decision undertaken by the designers for their own purposes.” It is not implemented, Chomsky says, “because of any economic laws.” American capitalism also benefits from ideological obfuscation: despite its association with free markets, capitalism is shot through with subsidies for some of the most powerful private actors. This bubble needs popping too.

In addition to discussing the prospects for radical change, Chomsky comments on the eurozone crisis, whether Syriza could’ve avoided submitting to Greece’s creditors, and the significance of Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders.

And he remains soberly optimistic. “Over time there’s a kind of a general trajectory towards a more just society, with regressions and reversals of course.”

In an interview a couple of years ago, you said that the Occupy Wall Street movement had created a rare sentiment of solidarity in the US. September 17 was the fourth anniversary of the OWS movement. What is your evaluation of social movements such as OWS over the last twenty years? Have they been effective in bringing about change? How could they improve?

They’ve had an impact; they have not coalesced into persistent and ongoing movements. It’s a very atomized society. There are very few continuing organizations which have institutional memory, that know how to move to the next step and so on.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bubble Bubble Where is the Bubble

September 23, 2015

Bubble Bubble Where is the Bubble

It is fascinating that when I warn of anything using the word “CRASH” newspapers immediate report it as I am forecasting a crash in the stock market. This demonstrates that there is no consideration that government can also crash and burn – the perfect example of 100% confidence. Yes, if this week simply closes on the Dow below 16280, then we can be looking at that slingshot move I have warned about where in one year, we have a crash and a swing to the upside to new highs. These type of events are the ultimate mind game, but that is how they destroy the majority. As for those who write asking which investment will be safe – the answer is NONE.

While those who distort the events of the Great Depression to sell gold or whatever, keep in mind that commodities peaked in 1919 and bottomed WITHstocks in 1932. Real Estate peaked in 1927 followed by bonds when the Fed cut rates to try to help Europe, then everything reversed and stocks soared in 1929 and then crashed and burned into 1932 bottoming with commodities.

There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing – ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. So why the charlatans are trying to sell you newsletter with promises of if you just bought this letter you will make 20,000%, keep in mind this is a period of survival we are entering – not wild speculation. If you do not understand the nature of the beast, the beast will have you for lunch.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

4 Charts Show Why This Rally Will Become a Rout!

September 3, 2015

4 Charts Show Why This Rally Will Become a Rout!

There’s a reason why I warn you to get out of a bubble a little early rather than a little late. It’s because the first wave down tends to happen in a matter of a few weeks or months, sometimes days. It’s fast and furious.

I know this because I’ve studied every major bubble in modern history – all the way back to the infamous tulip bubble in 1637, when a single tulip cost more than most people made in a single year! And what I’ve seen in each case, without exception, is that bubbles do not correct in nice stair steps when they’re coming off their highs. They burst, crash, collapse, clatter, clang – however you want to say it!

When the bubble deflates, it typically crashes 50% minimum to as high as 90%. But it’s that first wave down that can wipe out 20% to 50% right off the bat!

Below I have four charts that make the argument for me.

They show the 1929 bubble burst… the 1987 crash… the 2000 “Tech Wreck”… and the latest of 2015 from the Red Dragon itself – China’s Tsunami.

In each case, the fact that these bubbles were destined to burst were only obvious to the few that weren’t in denial. Most give into the bubble logic that new highs are the new norms. They think: “This time is different.” It’s not! It never is.

It’s always hard to predict exactly when bubbles will peak and crash. It’s like dropping grains of sand on the floor. A mound will build up – becoming like a Hershey’s kiss that grows more narrow at the top. At some point, one grain of sand will cause the avalanche. Who knows which grain of sand that one will be!

Here are those charts. Like I said, they speak for themselves!

What does that tell you!? EVERY bubble bursts. Bam, pow – no exceptions! So hopefully you understand why I keep harping on about this.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Blame the Federal Reserve, Not China, for Stock Market Crash

August 31, 2015

Blame the Federal Reserve, Not China, for Stock Market Crash

Following Monday’s historic stock market downturn, many politicians and so-called economic experts rushed to the microphones to explain why the market crashed and to propose “solutions” to our economic woes. Not surprisingly, most of those commenting not only failed to give the right answers, they failed to ask the right questions.

Many blamed the crash on China’s recent currency devaluation. It is true that the crash was caused by a flawed monetary policy. However, the fault lies not with China’s central bank but with the US Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies distort the economy, creating bubbles, which in turn create a booming stock market and the illusion of widespread prosperity. Inevitably, the bubble bursts, the market crashes, and the economy sinks into a recession.

An increasing number of politicians have acknowledged the flaws in our monetary system. Unfortunately, some members of Congress think the solution is to force the Fed to follow a “rules-based” monetary policy. Forcing the Fed to “follow a rule” does not change the fact that giving a secretive central bank the power to set interest rates is a recipe for economic chaos. Interest rates are the price of money, and, like all prices, they should be set by the market, not by a central bank and certainly not by Congress.

Instead of trying to “fix” the Federal Reserve, Congress should start restoring a free-market monetary system. The first step is to pass the Audit the Fed legislation so the people can finally learn the full truth about the Fed. Congress should also pass legislation ensuring individuals can use alternative currencies free of government harassment.

When bubbles burst and recessions hit, Congress and the Federal Reserve should refrain from trying to “stimulate” the economy via increased spending, corporate bailouts, and inflation. The only way the economy will ever fully recover is if Congress and the Fed allow the recession to run its course.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Is Pushing On A String Ensemble

August 26, 2015

China Is Pushing On A String Ensemble

Look, it’s very clear where I stand on China; I’ve written a lot about it. And not just recently. Nicole Foss, who fully shares my views on the topic, reminded me the other day of a piece I wrote in July 2012, named Meet China’s New Leader : Pon Zi. China has been a giant lying debt bubble for years. Much if not most of its growth ‘miracle’ was nothing but a huge credit expansion, with an outsize role for the shadow banking system.

A lot of this has remained underreported in western media, probably because its reporters were afraid, for one reason or another, to shatter the global illusion that the western financial fiasco could be saved from utter mayhem by a country producing largely trinkets. Even today I read a Bloomberg article that claims China’s Q1 GDP growth was 7%. You’re not helping, boys, other than to keep a dream alive that has long been exposed as false.

China’s stock markets have a long way to fall further yet. This little graph from the FT shows why. The Shanghai Composite closed down another 1.27% today at 2,927.29 points. If it ‘only’ returns to its -early- 2014 levels, it has another 30% or so to go to the downside. If inflation correction is applied, it may fall to 1,000 points, for a 60% or so ‘correction’. If we move back 10 or 20 years, well, you get the picture.

That is a bursting bubble. Not terribly unique or mind-blowing, bubbles always burst. However, in this instance, the entire world will be swept out to sea with it. More money-printing, even if Beijing would attempt it, no longer does any good, because the Politburo and central bank aura’s of infallibility and omnipotence have been pierced and debunked. Yesterday’s cuts in interest rates and reserve requirement ratios (RRR) are equally useless, if not worse, if only because while they may provide a short term additional illusion, they also spell loud and clear that the leadership admits its previous measures have been failures. Emperor perhaps, but no clothes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

First the Miners, now the Banks, then Property? Going to be a Hard Landing for… Australia

August 26, 2015

First the Miners, now the Banks, then Property? Going to be a Hard Landing for… Australia

A housing market set for the mother of all corrections.

“I think it’s important that people don’t hyperventilate about these type of things.” With these words, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott tried to soothe the world’s rattled nerves today about the ongoing crash in China. Australia is heavily exposed to China, the biggest consumer of its commodity exports.

“It is not unusual to see stock market corrections,” he said about the relentlessly brutal three-month crash that has taken the Shanghai Composite down 43% so far.

“It is not unusual to see bubbles burst in particular markets and for there to be some flow-on effect in other stock markets, but the fundamentals are sound,” he said, speaking of the Chinese fundamentals, and by extension, of the Australian fundamentals that depend so much on Chinese fundamentals.

And he said this though factory activity in China shrank at the fastest rate since the Financial Crisis, other indicators are heading south, cars sales are suddenly plunging, and the People’s Bank of China started devaluating the yuan to mitigate the problem, thus further hurting Australian exports to China.

So here’s Lindsay David, founder of LF Economics in Australia, weighing in on the “sound” fundamentals in Australia.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s easy to deny a bubble but impossible to deny its implosion.

August 25, 2015

It’s easy to deny a bubble but impossible to deny its implosion.

We’re having the kind of day when the New York Stock Exchange felt compelled toannounce very encouragingly before markets opened that it would halt trading for 15 minutes if the S&P 500 drops 7% to 1,833 before 3:25 p.m. Once trading restarts and the index plunges 13% before 3:25 p.m., trading would be suspended for a second time. If the index plunges 20% at any point today, NYSE would shut the market entirely for the rest of the day.

Monday’s meltdown commenced in Japan.

A follow-on to Friday’s debacle. The Nikkei started out in the hole and dove from there, ending the day down 4.6%. This is a market where the central bank has a mega-QE program in place with an explicit policy to buy equities to inflate them. Yet, despite the furious efforts by the Bank of Japan’s trading desk, the Nikkei dropped to 18,541, down 11.5% since June, the lowest since February.

It was in reaction to a whiff of panic in China, triggered by a total loss of faith in the government’s and the central bank’s machinery designed to prop up the markets.

The Shanghai Composite Index opened down nearly 4% and went to heck from there, closing at 3,210, down 8.5%. It annihilated the entire phenomenal bubble gains this year.

The thing is, the government vowed to support the stock market when it hit the “policy bottom” of 3,500 to 3,600 points. Now that it crashed through what was nothing but a line in the sand, hopes have shifted down to a new line in the sand of 3,000 points.

In all Chinese stock markets, only 12 stocks rose, and 2,200 stocks hit their 10%-down limit.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Making Sense Of The Sudden Market Plunge

August 22, 2015

Making Sense Of The Sudden Market Plunge

Are you prepared for further turmoil?

The global deflationary wave we have been tracking since last fall is picking up steam. This is the natural and unavoidable aftereffect of a global liquidity bubble brought to you courtesy of the world’s main central banks. What goes up must come down — and that’s especially true for the world’s many poorly-constructed financial bubbles, built out of nothing more than gauzy narratives and inflated with hopium.

What this means is that the traditional summer lull in financial markets has turned August into an unusually active and interesting month. August, it appears, is the new October.

Markets are quite possibly in crash mode right now, although events are unfolding so quickly – currency spikes, equity sell offs, emerging market routs and dislocations, and commodity declines – that it’s hard to tell for sure. However, that’s usually the case right before and during big market declines.

Before you read any further, you probably should be made aware that, at Peak Prosperity, our market outlook has been one of extreme caution for several years. We never bought into so-called “recovery” because much of it was purely statistical in nature, and had to rely on heavily distorted and tortured ‘statistics’ to be believed. Okay, lies is probably a more accurate term in many cases.

Further, most of the gains in financial assets engineered by the central banks were false and destined to burstbecause they were based on bubble psychology, not actual returns.

Which bubbles you ask? There are almost too many to track. But here are the main ones:

Corporate bond bubble
Corporate earnings bubble
Junk bond bubble
Sovereign debt bubble
Equity bubbles in various markets (US, China) and sectors (Tech, Biotech, Energy)
Real estate bubbles, especially in the commodity exporting countries
Central bank credibility bubble (perhaps the largest and most dangerous of them all)

What’s the one thing that binds all of these bubbles together? Central bank money printing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Approaching a Global Deflationary Crisis?

August 16, 2015

Approaching a Global Deflationary Crisis?

Anyone with any sense for global economic trends ought to be worried. The signs are everywhere of a serious deflationary crisis. It is obvious that Chinese growth is falling. The prices for energy and the raw materials that feed the growth economy keep falling. The demand for Chinese exports is down too. Stock Markets in Asia are falling, despite attempts to prop them up. Countries are being tempted to export their problems abroad – for example by competitive devaluation. In Europe its obvious that a “solution” is being cobbled together for the Euro and Greek crisis even though no one at all believes that it will work. At the same time the policy response of “quantitative easing” which has kept interest rates down very low has reached the end of the road. With interest rates at or near to zero the scope for addressing the crisis through monetary policy (low interest rates) is exhausted. Many pundits believe that low interest rates have not encouraged productive investment but speculative bubbles – the creation of capacity in fields that in the long run will not pay, or fuelled a casino style speculation, a giant bubble of bets that could soon collapse, bringing the global economy down with it.

So what is going on? How do we explain the situation? In this paper I am going to argue that there are a number of ways of understanding and addressing what is developing into a global crisis. The desire to make the crisis understandable can convert into a temptation to make it seem simpler than it is. At its most banal we have the explanations that neo liberal German politicians are prone to – like the idea that the crisis is because of a lack of confidence and trust and that this can be resolved (in Europe) purely and simply by countries following the Eurozone rules. If the confidence and trust are restored then all will be well and the market will restore prosperity.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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Monday’s meltdown commenced in Japan.

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