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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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Getting Ready For The Stock Market Crash…

Getting Ready For The Stock Market Crash…

It is something of a tradition amongst market commentators to make bold stock market calls because they gain you notoriety if you get it right. Over here at AiC, I don’t particularly care what people think. I’m here to make money—that’s it. Therefore, I’ve refrained from big market calls—particularly as I have no real edge in guessing where an index of a few hundred companies will be trading at a certain date in the future. This doesn’t mean that I don’t recognize economic and share-price cycles and manage my portfolio accordingly. 

Over the past few years, I have been increasingly concerned about the massive structural imbalances in the world, along with excess debt and asinine monetary policy leading to an epic equity market bubble. Remember, your investment returns are directly correlated to the price you pay, not your analytical ability and I refuse to play in the greater-fool theory of finance. With that in mind, I have consistently managed my portfolio with a rather reduced overall exposure profile. Despite holding plenty of cash, I have certainly not been a perma-bear—those guys tend to complain a lot but make no money. Rather, I’ve continued to find opportunities to do smart things in esoteric sectors of the market, leading me to consistently trounce the US equity markets over the past few years. Yet, the whole time, I have been quick to sell companies that appreciated to 80% of fair value, I have been un-willing to take on risk and have passed on many perfectly good investments as I preferred to miss something than increase my market exposure.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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