Did Anyone See 2014’s Many Crises Coming?.
This year has been marred by crises across the globe, as protests and conflicts have dominated headlines. Groups that were unknown to many, such as the Islamic State and Boko Haram, have become well-known. Tragedies like the downing of flight MH17 instantly entered public consciousness. Other crises, such as the continuously rising death toll in Syria and the increasing death toll of migrants, have occurred at a slower, yet relentless pace.
Some of these crises have been gestating a long time, while others seemed to develop in an instant. But were any of them predictable?
Predicting Conflict
Each year, political scientists working in the field of crisis and conflict forecasting run complex models analyzing the propensity for conflict in different regions across the world. These are usually published around the beginning of the year as a primer for both policy makers and the public on the threats to watch out for in the months ahead.
Each of these forecasts is unique; some prioritize risks in relation to U.S. interests, and others focus on aspects such as the potential for a mass killing. Taken together, they give a general idea of the regions and actors that concerned people looking at what the world would face in 2014.
