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Putin’s Ultimatum is the Next Stage of the War

Putin’s Ultimatum is the Next Stage of the War

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s State of the Union address may be the most important speech since his address to the U.N. in September 2015 on the eve of Russia’s intervening in the War on Syria.

Putin’s sober analysis and admission of demographic constraints on the Russian economy’s growth was welcome.  It highlights the real challenges for Russia over the next fifteen years.  The shift for those of us analyzing the Russian economy is to look at it purely in terms of per capita growth, not absolute growth.

But, that admission of Putin’s highlights the backdrop of his publicly outing Russia’s new and formidable weapons technology.

That he did this during the height of his re-election campaign should bring a smile to the cynic’s face. Well played, sir.

Now, about those new weapons.  I defer to Alex Mercouris at The Duran for the only in-depth look at these new weapons.  The Saker, who is absolutely one of the best analysts of Russia’s military capabilities, considers these new weapons, “Game, set, match for The Empire.”

No More Parallel Aggression

Putin has played the game very well over the past few years.  Employing the strategy of ‘parallel aggression’ when responding to a U.S. escalation, he’s kept a lid on hostilities in Syria and Ukraine, while grinding out small victories, playing for time.

The announcement of these new weapons, however, change that game plan.  Putin is now going on the attack.

Here are some early thoughts on what this implies:

  1. Announcing these weapons begs the question, “What is Putin not telling us about?”  That should scare many in the Pentagon and civilians who believe the U.S.’s response should be to escalate.
  2. Arming Ukraine with more heavy weapons to take back the Donbass will be countered because there is no reason not to.

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