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Congress Just Supercharged the Dollar’s Downfall

Congress Just Supercharged the Dollar’s Downfall

Confiscation, Weaponization, and De-Dollarization

“The dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency is a boon for the United States but a bane for the rest of the world.”

~ Barry Eichengreen

The U.S. Senate has predictably voted to give $95 billion to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, just three days after the House of Representatives green-lit the assistance in a rare Saturday session.

But beyond the big spending, there was a little something tucked into the Ukrainian aid bill that’ll have major implications for you as an American: the confiscation of Russian dollar assets.

The passage of the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) Act, as it’s called, adds a whole new dimension to the story that Matt Smith brought to your attention on Monday.

The Dollar Weapon

Once President Biden signs it into law, he’ll gain the authority to seize more than $6 billion in Russian assets held by U.S. institutions.

Now, in case you’re wondering why Russia held these billions of dollars outside of Russia, it’s because that’s what countries do when they have surplus dollars; they put them to work in the safe and trustworthy nation of America.

The joke’s on you, Russia…

But the $6 billion is just the tip of the iceberg.

You see, it’s not about the amount; it’s about how the U.S. sets a precedent for other Western countries to confiscate the nearly $300 billion in Russian state assets currently frozen under their jurisdiction.

To be fair, it’s not the first instance of the U.S. government’s “weaponization” of the dollar… far from it.

But it has become especially pronounced in recent years, targeting adversaries such as Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, Afghanistan, North Korea, China, and, of course, Russia.

But it never affects just these countries alone…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Target Russian Oil Refineries Again Despite White House Pleas

Ukrainian Drone Strikes Target Russian Oil Refineries Again Despite White House Pleas

Just days after the Biden administration signed a new military aid package worth billions of dollars to Ukraine, Kyiv launched a series of suicide drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. Biden’s top officials have pleaded with Kyiv to stop attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure because of the fears that turmoil in crude markets would send pump prices in the US higher ahead of the presidential elections in November. 

“Our region is again under attack by Ukrainian UAVs,” Smolensk Governor Vasily Anokhin wrote in a post on Telegram on Wednesday. Kamikaze drones damaged oil facilities in western Russia.

Another drone attack hit the Lipetsk region further south, which is home to steel production plants and pharmaceutical sites, Governor Igor Artamonov said.

“The Kyiv criminal regime tried to hit infrastructure in Lipetsk industrial zone,” Artamonov said.

The Moscow Times pointed out:

A source in the Ukrainian defense sector confirmed to AFP on Wednesday that drones in the service of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) had carried out the attacks.

The source made no mention of the attack on Lipetsk but claimed two oil depots were destroyed in the Smolensk region.

“Rosneft lost two storage and pumping bases for fuels and lubricants in the towns of Yartsevo and Rozdorovo,” the source said, referring to the Russian state-controlled energy giant.

The Financial Times, citing unnamed US officials, recently said long-range drones have hit at least 20 energy facilities deep within Russia so far this year. Kyiv’s drone attacks on Russia’s energy complex have been frightening for the Biden administration, as Brent prices have risen to the $90/bbl level on higher war risk premiums. Higher energy costs feed into inflation as stagflation concerns mount in the US. Also, gasoline pump prices in the US are inching closer to the politically sensitive $4 level.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Here’s Why Magazine Covers Reveal the “Market Zeitgeist”… What Investors Should Do Instead..

Here’s Why Magazine Covers Reveal the “Market Zeitgeist”… What Investors Should Do Instead..

Magazine Covers

Too many times in the past have I seen covers like this… and a few years later it didn’t turn out too bullish!

We covered magazine covers before as a great way to gauge “market zeitgeist.” It will be a while before we see offshore oil and gas, coal, or uranium hailed as a worthwhile investment on these covers. And when it happens, that’s when you’ll know it might be a good time to offload our positions. In other words, there’s still a lot of upside available in the hated sectors we focus on here at Insider.

Offshore Juice

Coming back to the offshore oil and gas theme…

Oil Majors Set To Sanction $125 Billion Upstream Projects in 2024

International oil and gas majors and the Middle East’s national oil companies are expected to give the green light this year to up to 30 projects, worth a total investment of $125 billion and holding an estimated 14 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of resources.

That’s the estimate in Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis of upstream oil and gas projects expected to reach final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2024.

And who stands to gain by all this spend? Oil and gas service companies — still the world’s worst performing sector over the last 10 years and still down some 80% from the start of 2012.

Philadelphia Oil and Gas Equipment and Services Index relative to S&P 500 indexed

Australia: Lights Out or Diesel?

This is Hegelian dialectic (an interpretive method in which the contradiction between a proposition and its antithesis is resolved at a higher level of truth) at play in the land down under.

Let the lights go out (let our standard of living go backwards) or burn diesel (maintain our standard of living)? You guessed it…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Woods Exposes the Federal Reserve System

Woods Exposes the Federal Reserve System

federal reserve eagle facade

The first thing to know about Dr. Thomas E. Woods, Jr.’s’ book Our Enemy, the Fed is he’s giving it away. Click the link, get your copy and read the whole book. Clearly, such intellectual charity is not only rare but in the educational spirit of Mises.org. The subject matter is light-heavy but Woods, author of the bestseller Meltdown (reviewed here), navigates it with the smooth skill of a master, making the reader experience satisfying from beginning to end.

The title reflects another insight, paralleling as it does Albert Jay Nock’s Our Enemy, the State. Most of us were raised to believe government and its agencies serve our best interests. As libertarian scholarship has shown the truth is the exact opposite, particularly with government’s sleazy relationship with money and banking. Admittedly, it’s a hard idea to accept since it involves a pernicious breach of trust, but Woods makes it abundantly clear. To our overlords we are easily-duped chattel.

Until Ron Paul decided to run for president and his End the Fed came along in 2009, the general public was mostly blind to the Fed’s existence. Austrians aside, the few who knew something about it — mostly university-trained economists on the take from the Fed — considered it a vital part of an advanced industrial economy. Yet the Fed had been around for 96 years when Dr. Paul’s book emerged. Given that it’s in charge of the money we use how did it remain in the shadows for tax-burdened citizens for nearly a century? What’s up with that?

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis tells us the Fed’s congressional assignment is “to promote maximum employment and price stability.” (Bold in original) For these it talks about interest rates, and its aim is to increase the money supply so that prices rise gently at or around a 2 percent rate.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ukraine War Funding and Failed Russian Sanctions. Is the US Empire Shooting Itself in the Foot?

*** 

This past weekend, April 20, 2024 the US House of Representatives passed a bill to provide Ukraine with another $61 billion in aid. The measure will quickly pass the Senate and be signed into law by Biden within days.

The funds, however, will make little difference to the outcome of the war on the ground as it appears most of the military hardware funded by the $61 billion has already been produced and much of it already shipped. Perhaps no more than $10 billion in additional new weapons and equipment will result from the latest $61 billion passed by Congress.

Subject to revision, initial reports of the composition of the $61 billion indicate $23.2 billion of it will go to pay US arms producers for weapons that have already been produced and delivered to Ukraine. Another $13.8 billion is earmarked to replace weapons from US military stocks that have been produced and are in the process of being shipped—but haven’t as yet—or are additional weapons still to be produced. The breakdown of this latter $13.8 amount is not yet clear in the initial reports. One might generously guess perhaps $10 billion at most represents weapons not yet produced, while $25-$30 billion represents weapons already shipped to Ukraine or in the current shipment pipeline.

In total, therefore, weapons already delivered to Ukraine, awaiting shipment, or yet to be produced amount to approximately $37 billion.

The remainder of the $61 billion includes $7.8 billion for financial assistance to Ukraine to pay for salaries of government employees through 2024. An additional $11.3 billion to finance current Pentagon operations in Ukraine—which sounds suspiciously like pay for US advisors, mercenaries, special ops, and US forces operating equipment like radars, advanced Patriot missile systems, etc. on the ground. Another $4.7 billion is for miscellaneous expenses, whatever that is.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Expect Big Negative Revisions to BLS Monthly Jobs in 2023, GDP Too

Yesterday, the BLS released a little-read jobs report that shows reported jobs in 2023 may be wildly overstated. In turn, that means GDP is likely overstated as well.

Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data and and Monthly Job Data both from the BLS, chart by Mish

BED Chart Notes

  • Data is from the BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report and the BLS monthly jobs reports (CES).
  • BED data is less timely but far more accurate than the BLS monthly jobs reports/
  • For 2023 Q3, the BED reports shows gross job gains of 7.559 million and gross job losses of 7.751 million for a net loss of 192,000 jobs.
  • The BLS monthly jobs reports show a gain of 640,000 jobs.

BED Job Gains and Losses by Quarter

Summary of Major Differences

Note that BED data is based on 9.1 million establishments while the monthly jobs reports are only based on 670,000 establishments.

The monthly reports are timely but inaccurate. And the BLS annual benchmark revisions do not also revise the monthly numbers. This makes year-over-year comparisons inaccurate as well.

I created the lead chart by netting BED data and comparing the BED net jobs to net quarterly jobs from the CES data.

BED vs CES

  • 2023 Q2 BED: +332,000
  • 2023 Q3 BED: -192,000
  • 2023 Q2 CES: +821,000
  • 2023 Q3 BED: +640,000

CES Overstatement

  • 2023 Q2 CES Overstatement: 489,000 Jobs
  • 2023 Q3 CES Overstatement: 832,000 Jobs
  • Q2+Q3 Overstatement: 1.321 Million Jobs

Thus, the BLS says that the BLS monthly job reports for 2023 Q2 and Q3 are overstated by a total of 1.321 million jobs.

Jobs Up 303,000 Full Time Employment Down 6,000 in March

In March, the economy continued to add a high percentage of government and social assistance jobs. Part time employment rose by 691,000 as full time employment fell by 6,000.

Nonfarm payrolls and employment levels from the BLS, chart by Mish.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Rich Get Richer and the Poor, Poorer – But Why?

The Rich Get Richer and the Poor, Poorer – But Why?

A Brief Digression into Heterodox Economics

The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The Parable of Talents, found in Matthew 25:24-30, is perhaps the earliest written statement of this famous aphorism:

For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him, that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath.

Because of this verse, the entire phenomenon of “the rich getting rich and the poor getting poor” is often called the Matthew Effect.

However, the aphorism was first stated in its modern formulation by the great Romantic poet Percy Bysshe Shelley. In his 1821 book A Defence of Poetry, Shelly criticized the “utilitarians” of his day by remarking that under their administration “the rich have become richer, and the poor have become poorer.” Today the aphorism is commonly expressed in present indicative tense, expressing a seemingly unchanging pattern observed over time: “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer”

Whatever its source and tense, no one disputes the truth of the Mathew Effect. Indeed, its factuality is in evidenced everywhere! The Guardian reports:

The world’s five richest men have more than doubled their fortunes to $869bn (£681.5bn) since 2020, while the world’s poorest 60% – almost 5 billion people – have lost money.

The details come in a report by Oxfam as the world’s richest people gather from Monday in Davos, Switzerland, for the annual World Economic Forum meeting of political leaders, corporate executives and the super-rich.

The yawning gap between rich and poor is likely to increase, the report says, and will lead to the world crowning its first trillionaire within a decade. At the same time, it warns, if current trends continue, world poverty will not be eradicated for another 229 years.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Markets Were Unwise But Right in the Israel-Iran Crisis

Energy Blog

The Middle East seemed to be on the brink of war last week and oil prices fell. Was the market wrong?

Brent futures price closed at $90.45 per barrel on Friday, April 12 before Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel (Figure 1). When markets opened on Monday, April 15, prices rose less than $1 before ending lower and closing at $90.02 on Tuesday. After Israel’s counter-attack on Friday, April 19, Brent rose from $86.96 to almost $91 only to close at $87.29.

Brent futures price fell -$3.16 (-3%) from $90.45 to $87.29 for the week ending April 19
Figure 1. Brent futures price fell -$3.16 (-3%) from $90.45 to $87.29 for the week ending April 19. Source: CME & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

This seems remarkable considering that oil flows through the Persian Gulf could have been disrupted. About 15.5 mmb/d (million barrels per day) of crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz (Figure 2). There’s an additional 5 mmb/d of refined products, and 10 bcf of liquefied natural gas.

Crude oil volumes that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2023.
Figure 2. Crude oil volumes that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of 2023. Source: Modified from @Nate Hagens with EIA data & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

There was a time when military outbreaks in the Middle East would have caused a sharp increase in world oil prices. Figure 3 shows a comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel.

Figure 3. Comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel. Source: Bloomberg and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Figure 3. Comparison of Brent price in the one hundred days following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and after the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel. Source: @johnauthers (Bloomberg) and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

It’s worth pointing out that there is no major oil production in Israel or in surrounding countries. The involvement of Iran in the recent conflict, however, makes these two events comparable at least in the last few weeks.

There are a slew of mainstream narratives for oil market’s phlegmatic reaction to recent attacks in the Middle East.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Taxing Unrealized Gains Would Obliterate The U.S. Economy

Taxing Unrealized Gains Would Obliterate The U.S. Economy

The reasoning is so simple, a fifth grader could understand it – which is probably why the Biden administration doesn’t.

Having used up all of the rest of the batshit, insane, counterintuitive economic dirty tricks left in the “we’ll literally do anything but cut spending” bag, the Biden administration is pushing what could be the most destructive idea for our country since prohibition: taxing unrealized gains.

As part of its budget proposal for the 2025 fiscal year, the Biden administration is trying to raise an addition $4.3 trillion over 10 years in the worst way possible: imposing a minimum tax equal to 25 percent of a taxpayer’s taxable income and unrealized capital gains less the sum of their regular tax, for taxpayers with wealth over $100 million.

Putting aside the fact that this high-risk idea only amounts to a pittance, $430 billion per year (25% of which we just sent to foreign nations over the weekend in one fell swoop of a pen and it’s only April), the introduction of taxing unrealized gains could be one of the worst slippery slopes we ever dare to roll our country’s economy down.

I mean, shit, we could save $1 trillion just by not sending $100 billion a year to other nations for starters. But I digress. For an outline of exactly what an unrealized gains tax is, here’s the American Institute on Economic Research:

A tax on unrealized capital gains means that individuals are penalized for owning appreciating assets, regardless of whether they have realized any actual income from selling them.

If you purchased a stock for $100 this year, for example, and it increased to $110 next year, you would pay the assigned tax rate on the $10 capital gain. You didn’t sell the asset, so you don’t realize the $10 appreciation, but must pay the tax regardless.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Copper Supply Shortage Is Here

The Copper Supply Shortage Is Here

With the AI boom and green energy push fueling fresh copper demand, and with copper mines aging and not enough projects to match demand with supply, the forecasted copper shortage has finally arrived in earnest. Coupled with persistently high inflation in the US, EU, and elsewhere, I predict the industrial metal will surpass its 2022 top to reach a new all-time high this year:

Copper vs USD, 5-Year Graph:

The AI boom is stoking the need for more data centers, which will require around a million metric tons of copper by 2030. Meanwhile, this year’s deficit of 35,000 tons is expected to rocket up to a staggering 100,000 tons in 2025.

Electric car batteries and EV charging stations also depend on copper, adding to the problem of there not being enough activity at existing mines, or the development of new ones, to satisfy the industrial need. Says Bank of America analyst Michael Widmer:

“The much-discussed lack of mine projects is becoming an increasing issue for copper.”

While many mainstream forecasts depend on a solid economic rebound to keep demand for copper up, inflation is here to stay, especially as the Fed is likely going to be forced to cut interest rates at some point this year. Even with just one 2024 rate cut instead of the three that markets originally expected, higher USD prices for copper and other commodities like gold are on the way. Out-of-control inflation will drive prices higher even if the oomph gets sucked out of the AI bubble, or we see other signs of an economic “hard landing.” As Peter Schiff said last month,

“I think we’re on the verge of the biggest bull market in commodities since the 1970s…They’re cutting rates because they have to avoid a financial crisis — a banking crisis.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Cashless Society: WEF Boasts That 98% Of Central Banks Are Adopting CBDCs

Cashless Society: WEF Boasts That 98% Of Central Banks Are Adopting CBDCs

Whatever happened to the WEF?  One minute they were everywhere in the media and now they have all but disappeared from public discourse.  After the pandemic agenda was defeated and the plan to exploit public fear to create a perpetual medical autocracy was exposed, Klaus Schwab and his merry band of globalists slithered back into the woodwork.  To be sure, we’ll be seeing them again one day, but for now the WEF has relegated itself away from the spotlight and into the dark recesses of the Davos echo chamber.

Much of their discussions now focus on issues like climate change or DEI (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion), but one vital subject continues to pop up in the white papers of global think tanks and it’s a program that was introduced very publicly during covid.  Every person that cares about economic freedom should be wary of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as perhaps the biggest threat to human liberty since the attempted introduction of vaccine passports.

The WEF recently boasted in a new white paper that 98% of all central banks are now pursuing CBDC programs.  The report, titled ‘Modernizing Financial Markets With Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency’, notes:

“CeBM is ideal for systemically important transactions despite the emergence of alternative payment instruments…Wholesale central bank digital currency (wCBDC) is a form of CeBM that could unlock new economic models and integration points that are not possible today.”

The paper primarily focuses on the streamlining of crossborder transactions, an effort which the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has been deeply involved in for the past few years…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil prices aren’t the Fed’s biggest problem right now — American demand is, says an economist

Oil prices aren’t the Fed’s biggest problem right now — American demand is, says an economist

Inflation could see a resurgence in 2025, BlackRock strategists warned.
Inflation could see a resurgence in 2025, BlackRock strategists warned. Jonathan Kitchen/Getty Images

“I think what’s difficult for the Fed currently is actually the part of CPI that is being driven by demand, rather than the supply issues or the energy issues, which are perhaps easier to deal with,” Samy Chaar, the chief economist of Lombard Odier, told Bloomberg TV. The Swiss private bank managed 193 billion Swiss francs, or $212.8 billion, in assets at the end of December.

A key inflation metric for the Fed, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, was little changed in March over its 2.8% reading in February. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell highlighted the index earlier this week as he signaled that interest rate cuts may come later, rather than sooner.

The US economy has been strong, with job growth and retail sales also rising more than expected for the month of March.

“The problem with the US is the sticky part that comes from services. Services is demand, and that demand needs to come from somewhere — and that’s a robust economy,” Chaar told Bloomberg. A gauge from the Institute for Supply Management showed the US service sector expanded moderately in March.

“Consumers are consuming because they have jobs, because they have rising incomes,” Chaar said.

This means inflation is fueled by demand rather than oil supply, even if a rise in energy prices complicates the Fed’s job, he said.

The Fed is now trying to engineer a soft landing for the hot US economy without causing it to tip into a recession.

“I would say the biggest challenge here for the Fed is to manage the demand of the US economy,” Chaar said. “It comes from domestic America, not from the Middle East.”

What the Rising Gold Price Signals

What the Rising Gold Price Signals

The recent run-up in the gold price has not garnered the attention among the mainstream financial media outlets as it should.  Gold has, in part, been overshadowed by the rise in the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Naturally, the financial press, which is really an arm of the government and its central bank, wants to ignore, as much as possible, references to gold as protection against the continuing increase in the price level which itself has been deliberately understated by monetary officials.  The media and government understand that precious metals are the ultimate security against runaway inflation and economic collapse.

While the increase in the gold price has reached nominal highs, it and the price of silver have not passed their all-time 1980 highs in real terms.  Adjusted for inflation, gold would have to rise to about $3590 an ounce while silver would have to surpass $50 an ounce.  Both are poised to exceed these watermarks in the not-too-distant future.

Precious metals will continue to escalate unless the Federal Reserve radically changes its interest rate policy to combat inflation as former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker once did.  Volcker raised interest rates to double-digit levels which caused gold prices to fall.  While Volcker could get away with such actions (because, at the time, the U.S. was still a creditor nation), current Chair Jerome Powell cannot because of the enormity of public and private debt.  Double-digit interest rates would collapse the economy and plunge millions of Americans into bankruptcy.

The rising price of gold is anticipating some of the promised policy actions of the Fed.  Since the end of last year, the central bank has indicated that it would be cutting interest rates.  In addition, Powell is considering ending the Fed’s “Quantitative Tightening” (QT) program.  Both are highly inflationary.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

War, fear of war spur global military spending to new record: SIPRI report

War, fear of war spur global military spending to new record: SIPRI report

New high of $2.4 trillion is the ninth straight annual increase, suggesting the trend will continue, research institute says.

The world spent $2.4 trillion on military forces last year, the highest amount ever recorded by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

SIPRI has been monitoring military expenditures since 1949 and found in its annual report released on Monday that in 2023 they rose to 2.3 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.2 percent the year before.

It meant that every man, woman and child on the planet was taxed an average of $306 for military spending last year – the highest rate since the Cold War.

The increased spending exactly matched the global rate of inflation of 6.8 percent, so it doesn’t necessarily translate into greater military efficacy everywhere.

But as SIPRI said, spending was not evenly spread out because “world military expenditure is highly concentrated among a very small group of states”.

The United States remained the biggest spender at $916bn, representing 37 percent of the world’s military outlays. China came second with an estimated $296bn.

Russia was third at $109bn although SIPRI considers this an underestimation “due to the increasing opaqueness of Russian financial authorities since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022”.

India came fourth at $83.6bn.

The rate of increase in military spending was also uneven with European budgets ballooning due to the war in Ukraine.

The belligerents

Ukraine increased its defence spending by 51 percent to $64.8bn – not including $35bn in military donations from allies. That meant it was devoting 37 percent of its GDP and nearly 60 percent of all government spending to defence, SIPRI said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Black swan hedge fund says Fed rate cuts will signal market crash

Black swan hedge fund says Fed rate cuts will signal market crash

Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington
The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) – While U.S. financial markets debate the timing of interest rate cuts, one tail-risk hedge fund is warning that investors should make the most of recent economic optimism while it lasts, as a shift to lower rates will signal a dramatic market crash.
“This is a case of be careful what you wish for,” said Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer and founder of Universa, a $16 billion hedge fund specializing in risk mitigation against “black swan” events – unpredictable and high-impact drivers of market volatility.
Spitznagel’s view is not widely held. The much-anticipated shift to a less restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has helped buoy stocks and bonds in recent months, although signs of stubborn inflation have eroded expectations for how deeply the central bank will be able to cut interest rates in 2024.
Spitznagel argues that such a shift would likely take place only when economic conditions deteriorate, creating a challenging environment for markets.
“People think it’s a good thing the Federal Reserve is dovish, and they’re going to cut interest rates … but they’re going to cut interest rates when it’s clear the economy is turning into a recession, and they will be cutting interest rates in a panicked fashion when this market is crashing,” Spitznagel said in an interview with Reuters.
Funds such as Universa often use credit default swaps, stock options and other derivatives to profit from severe market dislocations. Generally they are cheap bets for a big, long-shot payoff that otherwise are a drag on the portfolio, much like monthly insurance policy payments.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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