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This Friday is going to be a session for active short-term traders, and it will likely be unpleasant for investors.
Something broke in markets on Thursday. There are a few things that worry me about the latest bout of risk aversion. This is in context that I’ve been an unrelenting stocks bull since the December Fed meeting…
But now I’m uneasy…
The Thursday selloff confused people.
Initially, many blamed the comments from Fed’s Kashkari about there potentially being no US rate cuts this year.
However, a quick look at a few charts shows that (a) yields fell rather than climbed, so his hawkish lines did not impact, and (b) equities started selling off before his headlines.
It’s never a good sign when people struggle to identify why stocks have a relatively large swoon.
If an asset is weak without an obvious catalyst, it suggests that it can really get destroyed if a genuine risk materializes.
For good order, the weakness in E-minis coincided with the oil price rise that in turn followed the Netanyahu headlines.
We have key US data this morning at a time of vulnerability for the market in terms of the Fed narrative.
We’ve run a long way on the idea of the Fed being dovish despite a strong US economy.
We’re getting closer to the point where we must acknowledge that either the Fed won’t be easing soon, OR the economy is in more trouble than we thought.
It means that we’re in the unusual-in-recent-times setup where a big surprise in either direction could hurt stocks today.
(For clarity and consistency, I would only see this as a multi-week consolidation/retrenchment and not some long-term bearish turning point).
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Today we will hit two topics, NPF and MOAB.
Let’s Start with NFP
About as good as it gets for the economy, not so good for Fed cuts.
Not only were the headline jobs better than the top estimates on Bloomberg (303k jobs). We also revised prior job reports up by 22k.
Wages are doing reasonably, with monthly wages coming in 0.3%.
What is most impressive to me is the unemployment rate coming down to 3.8%. That occurred while participation rate increased nicely. At 62.7%, it is just a smidge below the post covid high of 62.8%. The Household Survey (which is used for unemployment) added 498k jobs!
Definitely not “goldilocks” for the Fed, but good for the economy.
What Does MOAB Have to do with Anything?
Nothing and everything. MOAB or Mother Of All Bombs isn’t front and center but Escalation and Expansion is. Thursday’s big drop in stocks was precipitated by fears that Iran was preparing to attack Israel. Part of why stocks were higher overnight and are still strong post NFP is because nothing happened overnight in terms of escalation and expansion (you can see that in oil too, which is hovering around unchanged).
We dealt with our thoughts on Hedging Geopolitical Risk at the start of the year and remain convinced of two things:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
January 31, 2023 (original posting date)
We All Believe What We Want To Believe
The following Contemplation is my comment in response to a thought-provoking post I read by Dave Pollard at his site How to Save the World.
Great read, thanks for sharing. A couple of quick thoughts.
If you’ve not stumbled across Erik Michaels work at Problems, Predicaments, and Technology you might find it confirming with regard to the notion that we have no free will. One of his major theses is that humans have no agency, and thus his motto to Live Now in the face of the consequences of human ecological overshoot.
Second, I’ve come to hold very similar thoughts as you on the idea that “we believe what we want to believe” and I think, perhaps, this is one of our primary reasons we grasp for hopeful narratives; along with the desire to believe we have agency/free will.
There are so many psychological mechanisms driving our behaviour and beliefs that it’s difficult to parse which is the most impactful — but perhaps it is our denial of reality in the face of our mortality as Ajit Varki argues. Not wanting to face the fact of death, we craft (using a lot of magical thinking) some rather complex narratives to deal with this reality. Throw in how we mitigate/reduce the stress of cognitive dissonance, and our tendencies toward deferring to authority and groupthink, and we have a recipe for clinging to stories — especially if weaved by smooth-talking snake oil salesmen — that provide ‘hope’.
Reality, facts, evidence…none of it matters. In fact, it appears we create our own reality based on ‘facts/evidence’ that tends to confirm our beliefs. As the lyrics of a song I recently heard suggest: “This is where I want to be, so this is where I go.”
Some want to believe there is an after-life. Others that human ingenuity and complex technologies will solve our existential predicaments. The laundry list of hopeful narratives is long and humans tend to want to confirm their beliefs rather than have them challenged. Denial and bargaining in the face of significant contrary evidence seems to be hard-wired in these walking, talking apes that have been able to leverage their cognitive abilities and tool-making skills to extend their ‘control’ over Nature and create the reality they wish; at least in their minds, and that seems to be all that matters for most.
If you’ve made it to the end of this contemplation and have got something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers). Encouraging others to read my work is also much appreciated.
January 29, 2023 (original posting date)
‘Representative’ Democracy: A Ruse To Convince Citizens That They Have Agency In Their Society
A friend recently posted on my FB timeline the link to an article about the plans of our provincial government in opening up sections of Ontario’s Greenbelt[1] to housing development and the legal action against this that is being contemplated by one of Ontario’s many First Nations communities.
He asked me the following: “I wonder how many people who vote for Doug Ford will give this some thought the next time they do a routine land acknowledgement?”
My comment on the issue:
I think the truth of the matter is that the vast/significant majority of people will not think about this issue.
The human tendency to defer/obey ‘authority’ results in most people believing the propaganda/marketing of the government.
Most citizens believe when they are informed governments are ‘consultative’, a ‘social service’, and acting on behalf of it citizens — something constantly reiterated in today’s mainstream/legacy media.
For most, what the politicians say is gospel, especially if they’re the ones they voted for.
Government consultation is a ruse, regardless of party. It is for all intents and purposes a public relations stunt to give the impression that the average person has influence or impact upon decision-making and policies, and that government is responsive to citizen input.
Can you imagine the stress created by the cognitive dissonance of holding the notion that you have agency via consultation or the ballot box but also recognising that your ‘representatives’ are the public face of a ruling caste that doesn’t truly give a shit about you but is primarily motivated by a desire to control/expand the wealth-generation/extraction systems that provide their revenue streams and thus positions of power and prestige.
Most (all?) would rather deny/rationalise away the latter belief and hold on to the former one. Living with a lie is much easier and comforting than living with the significantly problematic truth that governments are in place to represent and protect the ruling caste in society — not the hoi polloi.
If you’ve made it to the end of this contemplation and have got something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers). Encouraging others to read my work is also much appreciated.
Tech professionals are leaving India’s IT hub of Bengaluru amid an intensifying drought that has gripped the city as it sweats through another torrid pre-monsoon season
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…click on the above link to read the rest…
Due to the sanctions, Russia cannot access spare parts from Western engineering companies that have provided refinery equipment in the past, leaving Russian refiners struggling to repair damaged units, multiple industry sources in Russia have told Reuters.
Western firms including America’s UOP and Swiss ABB have supplied parts and equipment to major Russian refineries in the past. After the invasion of Ukraine, they no longer fulfill new orders from Russia, leaving local engineers scrambling to find spare parts and equipment.
One example of such difficulty is Lukoil’s Norsi refinery in Nizhny Novgorod on the Volga River. A turbine malfunctioned there in early January and Russian engineers have struggled to have the equipment replaced since then, according to Reuters sources.
This has left the refinery with a reduced capacity to produce gasoline.
The malfunction at the refinery compounded last month after a fire broke out at the facility following a drone attack.
Since all major Russian refineries use at least some part of Western technology, they could struggle to repair equipment and units that broke down or have been damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks, which have intensified in recent weeks and have taken an estimated 14% of Russia’s refining capacity offline.
Russia claims it can repair all damaged units within two months.
On Wednesday, Russia’s Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said that all damaged refineries in the country would be restarted by the beginning of June.
“Repairs are underway at the refineries. We plan to re-launch a number of refineries after repairs in April-May, possibly before the beginning of June,” Russian news agency Interfax quoted Shulginov as saying.
“All facilities that were damaged will be re-commissioned,” the minister added.
…click on the above link to read the rest…
Update(1831ET): With Israel’s embassies around the world on a heightened state of alert, and extra IDF reservists called up, and home and weekend leave for all combat troops having been abruptly canceled Thursday, the Israeli population is anxiously awaiting a response – with some reports saying residents are already seeking the safety of bomb shelters.
Tehran has vowed that vengeance is coming soon for the Monday Israeli airstrike on its embassy in Damascus. Most pundits believe this will take the form of ballistic missiles raining down on Israeli cities. But Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly vowing that if the Islamic Republic launches missiles from its soil it will ensure “a strong response” from Israel.
Israeli officials have told Axios late in the day that such an act would “take the current conflict to another level” — which most certainly would involve a direct Israel-Iran war and thus the eruption of a broader regional conflict. Axios adds the following observations:
Netanyahu informed his security cabinet Thursday that Israel’s forces have already been engaged with Iran “both directly and via its proxies, and therefore Israel is operating against Iran and its proxies, both defensively and offensively.”
A statement issued by the prime minister’s office laid out: “We will know how to defend ourselves and will operate according to the basic principle of whoever is harming or planning to harm us — we will harm him.” The White House has meanwhile issued a statement shortly after Biden and Netanyahu discussed the Gaza crisis, saying “President Biden made clear that the United States strongly supports Israel in the face of those [Iranian] threats.”
…click on the above link to read the rest…
January 16, 2023 (original posting date)
Energy Future, Part 3: Authoritarianism and Sociobehavioural Control
In Part 1, I argue that energy underpins everything, including human complex societies. In Part 2, I suggest that the increasing need for diminishing resources, especially finite or limited ‘renewable’ ones, invariably leads to geopolitical tension between competing polities.
A corollary of this rising political tension tends to be increasing domestic authoritarianism[1] as the ruling caste struggles to maintain control of its own population in the face of anti-war narratives and movements, and the resulting — at least for the masses, not necessarily for society’s elite — tightening of economic conditions[2] as resources are directed towards the military/security/industrial complex and related ‘control’ mechanisms. This results in diminishing returns for citizens: they get less and less benefit from their ‘investments’ in supporting the ruling caste of society. To counter these diminishing returns, the ‘rulers’ of a society seek greater control via a variety of means, but particularly economic and behavioural. A larger proportion of a society’s ‘wealth’ must be allocated away from the masses and towards the ruling caste’s favoured ‘projects’ and citizens must be ‘convinced’ of the need for the resulting ‘austerity’.
This is neither a ‘modern’ phenomenon nor a unique one. It has its roots in pre/historical times with the development of large, complex societies[3]. As human groupings became larger and necessarily more complex, organisational structures develop that give rise to occupational differentiation and thereby differential access to resources, including information. This differential access soon develops into hierarchical relationships within the community[4]. With a ruling elite that is for the most part completely free of the restraining impulses that exist within kinship-based groups[5], motivation to maintain such a powerful/privileged position within a society results in a hereditary-based ruling elite[6] or mechanisms for keeping particular interest groups/families/etc. in dominant positions[7].
When diminishing returns are encountered for the geographical region controlled by the sociopolitical elite, it was generally countered through expansion into unconquered, peripheral regions where wealth could be extracted to support the core (i.e., ruling caste). Political tension between competing polities often was the result with the elite of competing societies coercing and/or convincing their subservient populations of the necessity to engage in war with the ‘other’.
Archaeologist Joseph Tainter points out in The Collapse of Complex Societies[8] that various theories exist as to how complexity in human societies has developed. For example: managerial hierarchies emerge as population or other stress increases; internal class conflict creates a need for protecting the privileged; conflict with competing groups leads to needed sociopolitical shifts; or, several interrelated factors combine.
Two main schools exist: conflict and integration. The conflict theory basically posits that “the governing institutions of the state were developed as coercive mechanisms to resolve intrasocietal conflicts arising out of economic stratification…to maintain the privileged position of a ruling class that is largely based on the exploitation and economic degradation of the masses” (p. 33). Integrationists argue that complexity arose because of social needs such as shared social interests, common advantages, and consensus; a positive response to the stresses affecting human populations and the differential rewards to certain members is the cost for the benefits of centralisation.
Both schools of thought have pros and cons. And although they differ in their fundamental premises, they both acknowledge the role of legitimising activities by the ruling elite — some of which must include real, material outputs such as symbolic manipulation and coercive sanctions.
Concerns about controlling behaviour through such mechanisms as symbolic manipulation and/or coercive sanctions has a long and sordid history, whether on an individual level[9] or on a broader social level[10]. As societies get both larger and more complex, maintaining social order[11] becomes of vital importance to the ruling elite for various reasons.
As Noam Chomsky argues in Hegemony or Survival: America’s Quest for Global Dominance[12]:
“While methods differ sharply from more brutal to more free societies, the goals are in many ways similar: to ensure the ‘great beast,’ as Alexander Hamilton called the people, does not stray from its proper confines. Controlling the general population has always been a dominant concern of power and privilege…Problems of domestic control become particularly severe when the governing authorities carry out policies that are opposed by the general population. In those cases, the political leadership may…manufacture consent for its murderous policies.”
This manufacturing of consent can be seen in the increasing influence/control of the narratives that circulate in a society, particularly by way of government propaganda and mass media institutions. This tends to increase not only because the ruling caste wishes to carry out military incursions in far-off lands (resulting in hardships/sacrifices for the majority of the domestic population) but because they wish to justify/rationalise/legitimise their positions of power and prestige since the domestic population far outnumbers the ruling elite and is a far more direct threat to them when/if they revolt/rebel.
Murray Rothbard similarly argues in Anatomy of the State[13] a major concern for the ruling elite is how to maintain their power. Their typical approach is the use of force but their basic problem is ideological. Any government regardless of ‘type’ requires support from a majority of its citizens, even passive resignation, given the minority status of the State (its nobility and bureaucracy). The ruling class necessarily must be small as it is supported by production surpluses. While it can attract some allies in the population, “the chief task of the rulers is always to secure the active or resigned acceptance of the majority of the citizens.” (p. 19)
Creating vested economic interests is one way to secure support. Sharing the benefits of rule attracts followers but still not a majority. Thus, “the majority must be persuaded by ideology that their government is good, wise and, at least, inevitable, and certainly better than other conceivable alternatives.” (p. 20)
The ‘intellectuals’ of society take the role of persuading the citizens. They create and disseminate the ideas/beliefs passively adopted, for the most part, by the masses. These opinion-molders are needed by the State and thus offered security, income, and prestige within the State apparatus. The arguments by the State and intellectuals to garner support of the masses are varied and many but come down to a few basics: the rulers are wise/great (e.g., divinely appointed, society’s elite, experts) and leadership/rule/government is inevitable (i.e., evil would befall society without it).
One very successful device to achieve support has been the union of the Church and State; with this, rulers were anointed by God or were God and it was blasphemous to resist. “The States’ priestcraft performed the basic intellectual function of obtaining popular support and even worship for the rulers.” (p. 23).
In addition, instilling fear about another system or none at all has also been successful and citizens are persuaded by the argument that present rulers provide an essential service: protection against marauders/criminals. Rothbard goes on to argue that our ruling caste wish a monopoly on such predation.
With the creation of various nation states, the State has discovered an additional means to persuade the masses of its necessity: identification of itself with the territory it governs. “Since most men tend to love their homeland, the identified of that land and its people with the State was a means of making natural patriotism work to the State’s advantage.” (p. 24).
The intellectuals of the State work to convince the masses that any attacks upon the nation are attacks upon them, not simply their ruling caste; this way, wars between rulers are marketed as wars between people and the masses come to the aid of their rulers who are protecting them. This leveraging of nationalism has only really arisen in recent centuries within the West as people use to view conflicts as between nobles and not the land’s people.
In contemporary times we are witnessing increasing attempts at sociobehavioural control via mass surveillance[14], militarisation of police[15], persecution of whistle-blowers who unveil government corruption[16], and especially mass media control/influence[17]. We can expect the trends we are experiencing in these areas to continue and likely enlarge as conditions worsen due to diminishing returns increasing in severity and the elite feeling more threatened and worried about their positions of power and prestige.
Bringing this back to the issue of diminishing resources on a finite planet, one can imagine the increasing pressure upon the ruling caste to not only maintain/increase their competitive edge with other polities as resource control/access becomes more costly but also their ‘control’ over their domestic population as limited ‘wealth’ must be diverted to activities that support the ruling elite’s actions/policies. Even in tyrannical societies, the hoi polloi must be ‘persuaded’ to support, even grudgingly, their leadership.
As Tainter points out, as a society becomes increasingly complex we see a rise in centralisation and control through activity aimed at legitimising the ruling caste, symbolic manipulation, and coercive sanctions. These tendencies are costly in nature and costs must be borne by the masses as the elite siphon societal surpluses or manipulate the economic/monetary system to fund them. Tainter’s thesis maintains that the decreasing benefits of participating/supporting society lead an increasing number of members to ‘opt out’, until eventually a tipping point of withdrawn support leads to sociopolitical collapse.
The speed with which this ‘collapse’ occurs has pre/historically been relatively slow, sometimes taking centuries as was the case for the decline of the Roman Empire. Typically it appears a population can deal with diminishing returns on their investments in society for a long time believing that the situation is temporary, or due to recency bias and the belief that the current situation, as bad as it may be, is ‘normal’.
In a world of quickly diminishing resources that are necessary to support the complexities of society and in which people have lost the skills/knowledge to live self-sufficiently — and here there are no unexploited lands to migrate to — the path towards ‘collapse’ is likely going to be much, much faster than the pre/historical ‘norm’: it will probably be a Seneca-type decline[18] given most of humanity’s reliance upon complex and fragile long-distance supply chains and the various subsystems that support these.
I could go on and on about this sociocultural shift towards control by the elite mostly because I view it as something that is so easily overlooked by most. To reduce one’s cognitive dissonance people deny or justify/rationalise away the actions/policies of their society’s ‘leaders’. They ‘allow’ themselves to be caught up in the fervour of ‘patriotism’. They are quick to point fingers at the ‘other’ that have been painted by the ruling caste as the cause of their problems/predicaments.
As I responded to another on a post in the Peak Oil Facebook Group I am a member: “ I think, in order to keep the various Ponzi schemes from collapsing for as long as possible, keeping people ‘in the dark’ is amongst one of the most important motivations for the ruling caste and snake oil salesmen leveraging all this to their self-interested machinations. Narrative management/control is a powerful, powerful aspect to not only legitimise their positions of power/prestige but to keep them safe from the hordes of the disenfranchised.”
I’ve come to find the following image humourous in a sad way given I don’t really think most are as close as depicted and will continue to have ‘faith’ that our ‘rulers’ are acting in OUR best interests when really they are acting in THEIRS:
And, I close with quotes from the late Carl Sagan and Malcolm X:
Energy Future, Part 4: Economic Manipulation can be found here.
If you’ve made it to the end of this contemplation and have got something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers). Encouraging others to read my work is also much appreciated.
[1] See this, this, this, this, and/or this.
[2] See this, this, this, this, and/or this.
[7] See this, this, this, and/or this.
[9] See this, this, this, and/or this.
[10] See this, this, this, and/or this.
[14] See this, this, this, this, this, this, this, and/or this.
[15] See this, this, this, this, and/or this.
[16] See this, this, this, this, and/or this.
[17] See this, this, this, this, this, this, this, and/or this.
January 22, 2023 (original posting date)
Ecological Overshoot and Collapse: Rearranging the Deck Chairs On the Titanic
My comments prompted by two recent articles by The Honest Sorcerer (whose writing I highly recommend).
I believe you’ve hit the nail on the head about the underlying motives behind the geopolitical morass our globe’s ruling elite are creating (and consequential fallout for the hoi polloi): a rearranging of the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Ecological overshoot and peak resources (especially energy) have the socio/psychopathic ruling caste fighting amongst themselves for the vestiges of an ever-shrinking economic pie.
Emboldened and blinded by their ‘successes’ in the past (when there existed much in the way of surplus net energy), they are proceeding full steam ahead with a final blow-off top of resource extraction/exploitation, all-in attempt to consolidate and expand their ‘winnings’; first with the far-off ‘other’, then their domestic political ‘enemies’, and finally with their out-group citizens before they begin to cannibalise their own.
As I have been arguing for some time, the primary motivation of our ruling caste (as has been evidenced throughout pre/history of complex societies) is the control/expansion of the wealth-generating/-extracting systems that provide their revenue streams and thus positions of power and prestige. None of us are safe from the machinations of these people; nor is our environment and the very important ecological systems that serve to support the essentials of life.
Everything will be sacrificed to serve the ends of the ruling caste…bet on it. And things are likely to get much, much worse before the impact of significant diminishing returns — to say little about ecological overshoot — puts a final nail in the coffin of such misguided and insane behaviour.
It’s most interesting how cyclical human pre/history is. Perhaps that’s because of the truism that those who don’t study history are destined to repeat it; either that, or humans simply don’t learn from their mistakes. We are after all a very intelligent species, just not too wise — despite our self-proclaimed taxonomic nomenclature.
Complex societies, empires, civilisations all come and go. They reach a peak of complexity then invariably ‘collapse’. It may take centuries or it may only take a handful or less of generations for this decline, but it always occurs. As Joseph Tainter points out, a population can actually ‘put up with’ significantly diminishing returns on their ‘investments’ in supporting the-powers-that-be for a long time.
The other point Tainter makes, that I believe is relevant to your narrative here, is the aspect of competing polities in this ‘Grand Chessboard’ of geopolitics.
As he argues, such polities tend to get caught up in spiralling competitive investments as they seek to outmaneuver others and evolve greater complexity together. The polities caught up in this competition increasingly experience declining marginal returns and must invest ever-increasing amounts leading to greater economic weakness.
Withdrawing from this spiral or collapsing is not an option without risking being subsumed by a competitor. It is this trap of competition that will continue to drive the pursuit of complexity regardless of human/environmental costs.
Incentives and economic reserves can support this situation for a lengthy period as witnessed by the Roman and Mayan experiences where centuries of diminishing returns were endured.
Ever-increasing costs and ever-decreasing marginal returns typify peer polities in competition. This ends in either domination by one state and a new energy subsidy or collapse of all.
As he concludes: “Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner.”
Humanity is in overshoot, and a major correction is already underway, something, which will only accelerate even further. A runaway energy crisis, together with resource depletion, climate change and ecosystems collapse will upend centuries of growth and prosperity. But what does that mean on an individual level? Is there any way to course correct? If not, what are the possible ways of adaption?
The world economy faces a runaway energy crisis, not seen by most commentators. The energy needed to extract the next unit of both oil and minerals increases exponentially due to rich depleted deposits being replaced with ever poorer quality ones. Since energy is the economy, not money, an exponential rise in this area will eventually make further expansion impossible, and lead to a relentless decline. Something, which cannot be stopped, nor financed without bankrupting the economy… In the meantime, both investors and politicians act as if energy were just a cost item, and its supply could expand without any hurdles. What could possibly go wrong?
We are clearly approaching a civilizational tipping point, and there is nothing anyone in power can do about this. The entire process is driven by physics and geology, not wishful thinking and clever humans supposedly inventing their way out if this mess. However, if you were following the logic of how we got here so far, I don’t think it is realistic to say that the passing of this inflection point will suddenly upend civilization, and push everyone, everywhere back into the stone age in a matter of years. Instead, we are about to walk down a long winding road fraught with all sorts of perils, and have to prepare ourselves accordingly.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
January 19, 2023 (original posting date)
While I take a break from my Contemplation posts and specifically the energy series I began (see here for Part 1, Part 2), here is the sixth installment of chapters from the fourth book in my fictional novel series (that stalled a few years ago but have ready). I will continue to share some of these over the next little while. Here are the links to PDF files of Chapter 1, Chapter 2, Chapter 3, Chapter 4, and now Chapter 5.
The storyline: Flowing from actual world events, a damaged environment, dwindling energy resources, and a manipulated market-economy all come crashing together in this tale about the social and individual impact of stresses that overwhelm a precarious and complex global system. Supply chain interruptions, border disputes, increased fascism, growing protest movements, and mass migration out of rural areas into cities dominant the new normal.
Basically, this is a tale (set in Canada) about the individual (and societal) reactions to a breakdown of our complex systems. Life is proceeding ‘normally’ for most while a marginalised minority are increasingly concerned about the unsustainability of our way of life. Governments begin to clash with domestic populations while the machinations of some of the ruling caste, especially around energy systems, is exposed. Chapters trace the lives and experiences of a handful of people during the timeframe of about 3 months before to 3 months after a grid-down situation…
If you’ve made it to the end of this contemplation and have got something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers). Encouraging others to read my work is also much appreciated.
January 16, 2023 (original posting date)
Mainstream Green Narratives: It’s About Selling More Industrial Products
A follow-up to Contemplation LXXXIX that responded to the idea that if enough people found true contentment and happiness by cooperating with others, humanity would discover a ‘oneness’ that could ‘achieve truly coherent action’; all within the context of pursuing a ‘sustainable’ future. The individual that shared this notion added a link to a UK House of Lords publication as a follow-up, suggesting it demonstrates ‘an evolution of ideas’. The following is my response after reading the document.
Skimmed through the document. Here are a few clues as to why what is written will not and cannot work, and, in fact, will exacerbate our overshoot:
“…through adopting new technologies…[that] will bring…economic benefits.”
“… through technological innovations and their uptake…[by] making it easier…to adopt new technologies…”
“…focus [upon]…adopting ultra-low emission vehicles…low-carbon heating technologies…”
“…several positive trends such as…growing uptake of electric vehicles…”
“…stimulate investment and innovation…”
“…focus on the rollout of low-emission vehicles…”
“…new developments [of public transportation]…”
Then there’s the entire mythical narrative around ‘net zero’ and achieving it via non-renewable, renewable energy-harvesting technologies and their associated industrial products (when really it’s about dependence upon unproven technologies and manipulative accounting). And one way of achieving this is the ‘phasing out’ of fossil fuel-based products (conveniently leaving out the inconvenient facts that ‘green/clean’ energy products rely heavily upon fossil fuels both up and down their production, maintenance, and disposal/reclamation industrial processes).
While there is much, much more in the document, these examples point to the undeniable fact that much of what is being proposed relies upon the (mandated?) adoption of ‘green/clean’ industrial products, and the continuation of, for the most part, our status quo systems. They’re simply tweaked a bit to reduce our cognitive dissonance.
Much of the document relies upon marketing/propaganda to drive behavioural change, learning from what was achieved without much pushback during the pandemic. In fact, I get the sense that the document is a stepping stone (slippery slope?) towards what some analysts have predicted: widespread pandemic-type lockdowns in the guise of combatting climate change.
And I cannot help but interpret this as further confirmation of my growing belief that this is primarily (totally?) about narrative control and forced adoption of industrial products by those who own/control the industries and resources as they attempt to consolidate/maintain/enlarge their slice of an ever-shrinking economic pie as we increasingly bump up against the limits to growth on a finite planet. To say little about the blindness to the many layers of our predicament, especially when it comes to energy and other finite resources.
My ‘fear’ is that we will do almost exactly what is outlined here because rather than challenge or disrupt the status quo power and wealth structures of the globe’s ruling caste it actually enhances them; but, as demonstrated in this document, can be wrapped up in a veil of ‘green’ and marketed to the masses as another beneficent policy/action by the ruling class for the masses. Perhaps this image sums it up best:
At this point Israel’s ties with key Gulf countries like the UAE are near breaking point, after only a few short years ago diplomatic normalization was hailed through Trump’s Abraham accords. But international and Israeli press reports are confirming the UAE has announced it is halting all coordination on humanitarian aid with Israel.
Further, as Israeli media reports: “The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced a suspension of diplomatic coordination with Israel in the wake of the death of seven World Central Kitchen humanitarian workers in Gaza.” Simultaneously, Israel is busy putting its embassies across the world on high security alert due to the “heightened Iranian response threat” in wake of Monday’s Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. All of this served to send Brent soaring in the last two hours, with Brent spiking above $90 for the first time since October….
… and sending stocks tumbling to session lows.
With Iran vowing that its retaliation is coming at any moment, Israel’s military is scrambling for readiness, with the latest measure being to pause all home leave for all combat troops.
“The IDF is at war and the issue of the deployment of forces is constantly reviewed as needed,” the Israeli military said.
President Biden is meanwhile is said to be “pissed” with PM Netanyahu over the killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza, though Israel acknowledged that it was a “grave mistake”.
So far this sounds like more mere empty words of “concern” – a talking point that’s been on repeat from the White House even as its Gaza policy continues slowly fracturing the Democratic base – but Biden is said to have pressed Bibi for “an immediate ceasefire”.
The call readout further said ceasefire is needed to “protect innocent civilians” in Gaza and improve the humanitarian situation. Axios writes that Biden gave his Israeli counterpart an “ultimatum” as the US president “emphasized that the strikes on humanitarian workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable.”
