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One hundred years after World War I, are we heading back to the abyss?

One hundred years after World War I, are we heading back to the abyss?

On the anniversary of the Great War’s end, we should reflect on its causes, consequences and lessons for the future.

Cloth Hall, Ypres, Belgium, during World War I. | Flickr/National Library of Scotland. No copyright restrictions.

Today we live in a world that is not dissimilar to the pre-WWI world, when a few emperors and their families controlled the fate of the vast majority of the world’s population. In 1914, all it took to trigger the Great War was the assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a nationalist Serb. The assassination took place on June 28. Five years later to the day, on June 28, 1919 – almost exactly 100 years ago – the Great War formally came to an end, but at the cost of approximately 40 million lives.

There are no empires in the old sense now, but there are self-centered leaders who are just as powerful as any emperor in history. Some of these leaders are the kind of bullies who would not think twice before making potentially catastrophic decisions, merely to keep up the appearance of ‘strong men.’ Consider this list: Donald Trump, Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin, Ali Khamenei, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Narendra Modi, Rodrigo Duterte and Jair Bolsonaro. What do they all have in common? They have too much power and display autocratic tendencies when exercising it.

Whether you are a genius scientist in the United States, a peace-loving poet in Brazil, or a great philosopher in Iran, the truth is that your fate is, to some degree, in the hands of a man who, in a more rational world, would not even be allowed to care for a pet. Whatever we tell ourselves about the elite who control politics nationally, regionally, and globally, there is one embarrassing fact we need to face: we have surrendered our destiny, and the well-being of the planet, to a bunch of bullies. This should be disturbing for everyone.

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World War III – 2024-2027?

World War III – 2024-2027? 

QUESTION: Besides the Bible, there are many clairvoyants who predict that there will be World War III. Your models predict the rise in war tensions. What is your “opinion” about the prospects for a third world war?

JC

ANSWER: There is no doubt that we are in the process of a rising war cycle. It really appears to be more of a bitter war between leaders once again, as was the case with the last two World Wars. World War I was really about destroying the former Holy Roman Empire which had its seat of power in Vienna. That city was besieged in 1683 when the Ottoman Empire sought to conquer Europe. If you recall, the financial panics I used to discover the Economic Confidence Model began with the Panic of 1683 caused by the invasion of the Ottoman Empire.

The War Cycle is turning up and we are looking at a possible peak as early as 2027. This is why I have been concerned about the economic crisis in 2021-2022. Once the economy turns down, it will be the fuel for the war.

We must also respect that this particular cycle is the combination of both civil and international unrest. I do not believe we are in a cycle of conquest. Nobody wants to conquer and occupy each other — neither China, Russia, nor the USA. So, on the international level, it appears we are dealing with old grudges. When I have asked why Russia is our enemy since they abandoned communism, the only response I get is that, “Well, they are Russian!” World War I unfolded when the Archduke of Austria was assassinated by a Serb. He was heir to the throne of the old Holy Roman Empire. The French hated Germany for they were defeated under Napoleon. Additionally, in the first Treaty of Versailles in 1871 Germany became an empire at the expense of France. So it was really very much about settling old debts.

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UN Arms Chief Says Nuclear War is Closer Than Ever Since WW2

UN ARMS CHIEF SAYS NUCLEAR WAR IS CLOSER THAN EVER SINCE WW2

A United Nations arms official has declared nuclear war to be closer than it has ever been since World War II. The geopolitical climate is so divisive and disturbing right now, that globalists are actually telling us a nuclear war could be coming.

The head of the United Nations’ Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) Director Renata Dwan said in an interview that the use of nuclear weapons is more likely today than any time since the U.S. bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan in 1945, adding that the use of such weapons today carried a greater risk than ever, according to Reuters. 

“I think that it’s genuinely a call to recognize — and this has been somewhat missing in the media coverage of the issues — that the risks of nuclear war are particularly high now, and the risks of the use of nuclear weapons, for some of the factors I pointed out, are higher now than at any time since World War II,” she told the news service, speaking about a call from 122 nations to ban such weapons entirely. Dawn says that the UN should be doing more to ban nuclear weapons. “How we think about that, and how we act on that risk and the management of that risk, seems to me a pretty significant and urgent question that isn’t reflected fully in the (U.N.) Security Council,” she told Reuters according to The Hill.

Of course, a ban only works if countries are going to obey. Should nations defy a UN nuclear weapons ban, there is literally nothing the UN can do about it. There are far too many nukes out there for the UN’s words to matter.

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The “disintegration” of global capitalism could unleash world war 3, warns top EU economist

The “disintegration” of global capitalism could unleash world war 3, warns top EU economist

Seeing the systemic roots of this risk can help us avert catastrophe and build resilience

(Source: miriadna.com)

A senior European Commission economist has warned that a Third World War is an extremely “high probability” in coming years due to the disintegration of global capitalism.

In a working paper published last month, Professor Gerhard Hanappi argued that since the 2008 financial crash, the global economy has moved away from “integrated” capitalism into a “disintegrating” shift marked by the same sorts of trends which preceded previous world wars.

Professor Hanappi is Jean Monnet Chair for Political Economy of European Integration — an European Commission appointment — at the Institute for Mathematical Models in Economics at the Vienna University of Technology. He also sits on the management committee of the Systemic Risks expert group in the EU-funded European Cooperation in Science and Technology research network.

In his new paper, Hanappi concludes that global conditions bear unnerving parallels with trends before the outbreak of the first and second world wars.

Key red flags that the world is on a slippery slope to a global war, he finds, include:

  • the inexorable growth of military spending;
  • democracies transitioning into increasingly authoritarian police states;
  • heightening geopolitical tensions between great powers;
  • the resurgence of populism across the left and right;
  • the breakdown and weakening of established global institutions that govern transnational capitalism;
  • and the relentless widening of global inequalities.

These trends, some of which were visible before the previous world wars, are reappearing in new forms. Hanappi argues that the defining feature of the current period is a transition from an older form of “integrating capitalism” to a new form of “disintegrating capitalism”, whose features most clearly emerged after the 2008 financial crisis.

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2019: Are you Ready for a New World War? A Statistical Analysis

2019: Are you Ready for a New World War? A Statistical Analysis

Detail from Picasso’s “Guernica” – 1937

With the end of 2018, also the centennial of the end of the Great War (or WWI) is past. It passed remarkably in silence: a few celebrations, but little or no discussion of the reasons and the consequences of that war, supposed to be the one that would “end all wars.”

Reasonably, it was too much to expect that wars would ever end but maybe we could have at least learned something from rethinking to a conflict that caused some 40 million victims. But that didn’t happen (if you can read Italian, you may be interested in a reflection of mine on the subject). The world situation, today, looks more and more similar to the military build-up that took place in Europe in the years preceding the Great War. The “Great Powers” are arranging their forces as if they were setting their pieces on a giant chessboard. At some moment, someone may well decide to make the first move. And in this giant chess game, the kings can wipe out all the pawns in a single move with their nuclear warheads.

It would be nice to follow Steven Pinker’s optimism about modern times becoming less violent. There may be such a trend for the past few decades, but it is always dangerous to extrapolate from a limited dataset. In this case, the optimism of Pinker seems to be simply wrong if measured over a time span of several centuries. This is the result of an analysis of the data for the conflicts of the past 600 years that myself and my coworkers Martelloni and Di Patti performed in 2018 — it was thought, in part, as a way to celebrate the centennial of the Great War.
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The Stampede of the Gadarene Swine: US Leaders Allowing Ukraine to Pull Them into Global War

The Stampede of the Gadarene Swine: US Leaders Allowing Ukraine to Pull Them into Global War

The Stampede of the Gadarene Swine: US Leaders Allowing Ukraine to Pull Them into Global War

George Friedrich Wilhelm Hegel was right – Again: The only thing the human race learns from history is that it learns nothing from history.

In 1914,the British Empire, largest in human history and one of the longest-lasting, charged into World War I to defend “gallant little Belgium” whose King Leopold over the previous 30 years had carried out one of the longest, largest genocides of all time, killing 10 million people in the Congo.

Germany, wealthiest, most prosperous nation in Europe, blundered into the same needless war when feckless Kaiser Wilhelm II causally gave sweeping approval to Austria-Hungary to annihilate the tiny nation of Serbia. Millions of brave and idealistic Russians eagerly volunteered to fight in the war to protect “gallant little Serbia.” Most of them died too. There is no record that any of the Serbian leaders after the war visited any of their mass graves.

Now it is the United States’ turn.

Since the end of the Cold War US policymakers, presidents and their congresses have carried out virtually every stupidity and folly imaginable for any major power. The only one they have so far avoided has been the danger of stumbling into a full scale world war.

However, now, with the escalating and increasingly hysterical US support for the shady and risk-taking junta in Kiev, President Donald Trump risks committing that most dire and unforgivable of all horrors.

Trump today is no more than putty in the hands of his national security adviser John Bolton, one of the masterminds of the catastrophe that was the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

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Assorted Thoughts On Politics, Humanity, And The World

Assorted Thoughts On Politics, Humanity, And The World

The problem isn’t just that we are ruled by tyrants, it’s that our minds are full of propaganda and cultural mind viruses which cause us to consent to it.

Russophobia and an uncritical emphasis on Trump has been used to scaremonger an annoyingly large percentage of American progressives from focusing on wanting change to focusing on wanting things to go back to how they used to be. Wanting things to go back to how they used to be is wanting the conditions which created Trump.

Patriotism is like the blue pill in The Matrix. You take it and you get to feel good about your country, but you don’t get to know the truth about it.

If everyone suddenly deeply understood on a gut level exactly how horrific war is, all military actions the US and its allies are currently engaged in would be forced to end due to popular revolt.

Under-discussed: secretive government agencies provide support to Silicon Valley corporations, support which they could easily have threatened to give to those corporations’ competitors instead if certain agreements weren’t made.

Anyone who says Russia is about to invade Ukraine or the Baltic states is either lying or ignorant. A nation with an economy the size of Spain which has been gutting its military budget is not gearing up for World War Three.

Russia’s military personality is a lot like the personality of the stereotypical Russian military veteran: stoic and reserved when left unprovoked, but willing and able to put you in a wheelchair if you invade his personal space. It should be treated accordingly.

People who don’t believe that these idiotic escalations against Russia can lead to nuclear war have simply compartmentalized away from fully considering all the possibilities. They have done this out of intellectual cowardice.

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Should we Prepare for a New World War? Answers from the Patterns of Past

Should we Prepare for a New World War? Answers from the Patterns of Past

 I know that I have crammed together too many ideas here: Tolstoy, St. Francis, critical phenomena, thermodynamics, and more,  – it is contrary to the rules of blog posts. But the centennial of the end of the Great War gave me the occasion to write about the nature of war. in 1914, the European states sleepwalked into the Great War just like we may be doing nowadays, blundering toward a new gigantic conflagration — a true “big one,” in terms of wars. If the Great War couldn’t end all wars as it was said to be able to do, the greater one that may be coming could actually do that, but in a very different way. The new war could lead to the extinction of humankind. So, what hope do we have? I don’t know, but the first step to solve a problem is to understand it. So far, humans so far haven”t learned anything much from the mistakes of the past but, who knows? Maybe one day they will.

The centennial of the end of the Great War is a good occasion to rethink a little about wars: why, how, and when wars occur and if there is any hope to stop blindly walking along a path taking us to the possibility of the complete annihilation of humankind.

It is a question that has been posed many times and never satisfactorily answered. Perhaps the first to try to answer it was Leon Tolstoy in his “War and Peace” novel, (1867), where he wondered how it could be possible that a single man named Napoleon could cause millions of men to move all together eastward with the purpose of killing other men whom they had never met and they had no reason to hate.
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Will the ‘Taiwan question’ give rise to a World War III scenario?

Will the ‘Taiwan question’ give rise to a World War III scenario?

The United States and China are set to go head-to-head over disputes in relation to Taiwan and the South China Sea, with deadly consequences on the immediate horizon.

You wouldn’t know it with all the media hype over the US mid-term elections, but the US and China are on a deadly collision path in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. In the last two months, the US military has flown B-52 bombers and carried out its so-called “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China Sea. There have also been instances of US warships sailing through the Taiwan Strait in support of Taiwan, an island which China considers to be a rogue part of Chinese territory.

On a side note, it is amazing to say the least that the US believes it should have the “freedom to navigate” in the South China Sea, yet seems to get up in arms when Iranian ships expect the same kind of freedom in the Persian Gulf.

Near-collisions in the South China Sea

Last September, US and Chinese warships almost collided when sailing near an islet claimed by Beijing in the Spratly Islands. Reportedly, the Chinese warship threatened the US Destroyer that it would “suffer consequences” if it did not move, as it sailed within 45 yards of the American vessel.

In a last-ditch effort to avert this collision course, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defence James Mattis will hosttheir Chinese counterparts Yang Jiechi and China’s Defence Minister Wei Fenghe this Friday for talks on reducing tensions. However, I think we can say with some confidence that these talks will be absolutely meaningless. Firstly, China already canceled the first round of talks set for September due to their frustration over US-enforced sanctions. Secondly, Chief of US Naval Operations Adm.

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Will we Ever be Able to End Wars? How the Wise are Confused

Will we Ever be Able to End Wars? How the Wise are Confused

One hundred years after the end of the war that was to end all wars, the First World War, we still don’t understand what wars are, why we fight wars, why we can’t stop fighting them. We are surrounded, it seems, by things we don’t understand: why do people fight wars? Why are wars so commmon? Why can’t we find a way to stop them? Why people still fall for the most obvious propaganda tricks?
Below, you can find an excerpt from the 1980 book by David Wilkinson, “Deadly Quarrels” that starts with a list of the various theories put forward in modern times to explain how peace could be attained. Still perfectly valid today, the list highlights the confusion pervading the attempts to put an end to war. It reminds the 200+ theories that Demandt reports for the reasons of the fall of the Roman Empire. More than that, it reminds of Paul of Tarsus (Corinthians 1) when he says “God hath chosen the foolish things of the world to confound the wise.” And this is war, a foolish thing that keep confounding us.

From “Deadly Quarrels” by David Wilkinson, 1980 (*)

The most common way of contributing to the debate over war causation and peace strategy has been to assert some definite theory, to show how it fits current circumstances, and to deduce immediate practical conclusions. If we follow this public debate, we may expect to be told that war is a consequence, for instance, of wickedness, lawlessness, alienation, aggressive regimes, imperialism, poverty, militarism, anarchy, or weakness. Seldom will any evidence be offered. Instead the writer is likely to present a peace strategy that matches his theory of war causation. We shall therefore learn that we can have:

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From Economic Crisis to World War III

income inequality usAndrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images

From Economic Crisis to World War III

The response to the 2008 economic crisis has relied far too much on monetary stimulus, in the form of quantitative easing and near-zero (or even negative) interest rates, and included far too little structural reform. This means that the next crisis could come soon – and pave the way for a large-scale military conflict.

BEIJING – The next economic crisis is closer than you think. But what you should really worry about is what comes after: in the current social, political, and technological landscape, a prolonged economic crisis, combined with rising income inequality, could well escalate into a major global military conflict

The 2008-09 global financial crisis almost bankrupted governments and caused systemic collapse. Policymakers managed to pull the global economy back from the brink, using massive monetary stimulus, including quantitative easing and near-zero (or even negative) interest rates.

But monetary stimulus is like an adrenaline shot to jump-start an arrested heart; it can revive the patient, but it does nothing to cure the disease. Treating a sick economy requires structural reforms, which can cover everything from financial and labor markets to tax systems, fertility patterns, and education policies.

Policymakers have utterly failed to pursue such reforms, despite promising to do so. Instead, they have remained preoccupied with politics. From Italy to Germany, forming and sustaining governments now seems to take more time than actual governing. And Greece, for example, has relied on money from international creditors to keep its head (barely) above water, rather than genuinely reforming its pension system or improving its business environment.

The lack of structural reform has meant that the unprecedented excess liquidity that central banks injected into their economies was not allocated to its most efficient uses. Instead, it raised global asset prices to levels even higher than those prevailing before 2008.

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WW3: Russia Vows It ‘WILL ACT’ If Ukraine Or Georgia Join NATO

WW3: Russia Vows It ‘WILL ACT’ If Ukraine Or Georgia Join NATO

Russia has vowed that they “will act” should Ukraine or Georgia join NATO. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu voiced his concern over what he described as the “militarization of the European continent,” by promising action instead of empty rhetoric.

This statement by Shoigu appears to be a sign of the country’s unease in the wake of President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out the United States out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). Speaking during a meeting with Greek Defense Minister Panos Kammenos, Shoigu said: “We are following with alarm NATO’s policy aimed at the active militarization of the European continent. We see efforts being made to involve more and more NATO member countries, I mean the Balkans first of all.”

According to the Express UK, Andrei Kelin, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s European cooperation department, made his remarks during an expert discussion NATO’s Future and Russia’s Interests on the platform of the discussion club Valdai.

“We will have to create a defense belt near Sochi,” said Kelin. “We will have to spend colossal resources on preventing likely actions by a hypothetical enemy, this is inevitable.” Kelin also cautioned Ukraine against joining NATO saying that action would have equally serious military and economic repercussions for his country. “The length of our common border is enormous.  It is utterly unequipped, so we will have to build defense lines there and to shift the emphasis of our defense structures towards the south.” Kelin did concede, however, that it was unlikely either nation would join NATO.

“But if our western partners proceed along the road of building up confrontation, this may happen, of course, and we will have to make fundamental preparations,” Kelin added.

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Washington’s Belligerence Can Produce A World Holocaust

Washington’s Belligerence Can Produce A World Holocaust

Recently I have been receiving a number of requests for my opinion of the Jewish holocaust. These requests are a puzzle to me as it is a topic unrelated to my commentaries on economics, law, current foreign affairs, and a looming showdown between Washington and Russia in Syria. I don’t know whether to be flattered that readers think that I know everything about everything, or whether these requests are efforts to set me up as a “Holocaust Denier,” a charge that can be used to discredit and close down my website.

The holocaust that I am interested in is the one that Washington’s aggression against Russia, aggression aided by Europe, is preparing for our future. This would not be a holocaust of a few million people but of a few billion and perhaps the entirety of planet Earth. I haven’t the time or energy to investigate the holocaust associated with the Second World War, but Ron Unz, a remarkable person and a Jew, whose website you should daily visit—http://www.unz.com — has, as an objective outsider, had a good look, and you can read it here: http://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-holocaust-denial/

He has also posted this early work on the subject: http://www.unz.com/book/arthur_r_butz__the-hoax-of-the-twentieth-century/

I am focused on trying to make people aware that Washington’s belligerence toward Russia is driving the world to nuclear war, and that Washington has used various false flag events, dating from September 11, 2001, to destroy the US Constitution and to accumulate all power over the American people in the executive branch.

This task exhausts my time and my energy. I cannot take on more controversies. As I have said in my defense of Noam Chomsky, who many denounce for not disputing the 9/11 official story, no person who has taken on so many controversial issues as Chomsky can afford to take on yet another.

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Putin quotes Einstein: ‘WW3 would be the end of civilization’ (Video)

Putin quotes Einstein: ‘WW3 would be the end of civilization’ (Video)

Putin: WWIII may be end of civilization, and that should restrain conflicts

Russian President Vladimir Putin held his annual televised question-and-answer session, with over two million questions submitted from Russian citizens.

This year’s event is Putin’s 16th Q&A.

One question Putin received referenced the new cold war between East and West, and whether this could lead to a hot World War 3.

Putin noted that such a scenario would be “an end of civilization” event, and awareness of this should be enough to restrain international powers from engaging in global conflict.

Putin quoted Albert Einstein – “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

Remember to Subscribe to The Duran’s YouTube Channel.

Via RT

As of Thursday morning, over 1.9 million questions have been submitted, according to Interfax, and the number keeps growing. The annual event, which is officially called ‘Direct line with the president,’ has been scheduled ahead of the 2018 FIFA World Cup, which kicks off on June 14.

This year there will be no audience at the venue and the questions will be asked not only by phone but also using interactive screens in the studio. The president will have a huge screen in front of him on which he will see text and video messages.

The Q&A session has become an annual tradition in Russia, in which the president answers questions submitted by people throughout the country. Traditionally, the Q&A focuses mostly on domestic issues, such as healthcare and economic development, but the Russian leader also often comments on global affairs.

Putin’s first Q&A session was held in December 2001, and he continued them as a prime minister. This year, Putin will host the 16th session. The longest event so far lasted 4 hours, 47 minutes.

Stephen Cohen’s Misrepresentations About the 2014 Coup in Ukraine

Stephen Cohen’s Misrepresentations About the 2014 Coup in Ukraine

The restoration of the Cold War now, between Russia and the United States, is based on frauds by the United States, as will be documented here; and one of the biggest responsibilities that historians have, is to state this publicly — to acknowledge it publicly and clearly — so that the necessary public pressure can finally come to be brought upon the U.S. Government, to acknowledge that it has been wrong about this matter, which is a matter increasingly threatening the entire planet with World War III, a nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia, the war that would end the world.

Most historians fail this fundamental professional obligation to truthfulness especially about important matters such as this, and don’t even acknowledge publicly that the overthrow in February 2014 of Ukraine’s democratically elected President was a “coup” instead of a ‘revolution’ (which the U.S. Government and its foreign allies call it), but even most of the historians who do call it a “coup” do not say that it was perpetrated by the U.S. Government upon, and greatly harmed, the people of Ukraine; and, so, their admission fails to apply any pressure at all upon the U.S. Government, to stop its constant lying about this.

Wars do not result merely from force of arms, but even more fundamentlly, they result from force of lies. In the present matter, those lies can have a world-ending consequence; so, at least the biggest of these lies need to be addressed in public, by historians.

Dr. Stephen C. Cohen, the prominent Russia-specialist now retired from Princeton and NYU, has said on at least two occasions, that the February 2014 overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected President Viktor Yanukovych was a “coup.” 

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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