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The Fed and Asset Bubbles

In his speech on April 7 2010 at the Economic Club of New York the President of the New York Fed, William Dudley argued that asset bubbles pose a serious threat to real economic activity.

The New York Fed chief is of the view that the US central bank should develop effective tools to counter this menace.

According to Dudley, it should be the role of the Fed to stop the expansion of the bubble whilst it is still in the making.

By an asset bubble, I mean price increases (or declines) that become unmoored from fundamental valuations.[1]

Dudley is of the view that the way people trade also generates bubbles. On this, he suggests that,

Bubbles may simply emerge from the way market participant’s process information and trade. In many carefully controlled experiments in which the intrinsic value of the asset could be determined with certainty, participants still bid prices up far above fundamental valuations, with the bubbles being followed by sharp declines in prices.[2]

Furthermore, Dudley is of the view that,

A bubble is difficult to discern and, second, each bubble has unique characteristics. This implies that a rules-based approach to bubbles is likely to be ineffective and that tackling bubbles to diminish their potential to destabilize the financial system requires judgment.[3]

In conclusion, the New York Fed President has suggested,

Let me underscore the challenge that central bankers face in combating asset price bubbles. Doing so effectively requires us to be successful in both identifying the incipient bubble and in developing and implementing a response that will limit bubble growth and avert a destructive asset price crash. This is not easy because asset bubbles are hard to recognize in real time and each asset bubble is different. However, these challenges cannot be an excuse for inaction.[4]

The Fed and bubbles – is there any relation?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Blame the Fed — Not Investors — For Asset Bubbles

Blame the Fed — Not Investors — For Asset Bubbles

investors.PNG

In his speech on April 7 2010 at the Economic Club of New York the President of the New York Fed, William Dudley argued that asset bubbles pose a serious threat to real economic activity.

The New York Fed chief is of the view that the US central bank should develop effective tools to counter this menace.

According to Dudley, it should be the role of the Fed to stop the expansion of the bubble while it is still in the making.

By an asset bubble, I mean price increases (or declines) that become unmoored from fundamental valuations. 1

Dudley is of the view that the way people trade also generates bubbles. On this, he suggests that,

Bubbles may simply emerge from the way market participant’s process information and trade. In many carefully controlled experiments in which the intrinsic value of the asset could be determined with certainty, participants still bid prices up far above fundamental valuations, with the bubbles being followed by sharp declines in prices.

Furthermore, Dudley is of the view that,

A bubble is difficult to discern and, second, each bubble has unique characteristics. This implies that a rules-based approach to bubbles is likely to be ineffective and that tackling bubbles to diminish their potential to destabilize the financial system requires judgment.

In conclusion, the New York Fed President has suggested,

Let me underscore the challenge that central bankers face in combating asset price bubbles. Doing so effectively requires us to be successful in both identifying the incipient bubble and in developing and implementing a response that will limit bubble growth and avert a destructive asset price crash. This is not easy because asset bubbles are hard to recognize in real time and each asset bubble is different. However, these challenges cannot be an excuse for inaction.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

NY Fed President Dudley Complains Unemployment is Too Low, Rate Hikes Needed

NY Fed President William Dudley is worried about the low unemployment rate. He thinks the Fed needs to be above neutral.

New York Fed President William Dudley will retire Monday. Current San Francisco Fed chief John Williams will take over.

“The federal funds rate will probably have to climb a little bit above neutral, because the unemployment rate is already — from most people’s vantage points — below a sustainable level of unemployment consistent with stable inflation,” Dudley told reporters Friday. “So, I think the move will be eventually to a slightly tight monetary policy.”

“I’m sort of expecting that the peak in the federal funds rate in this cycle will be lower than in past cycles, but I have quite a bit of uncertainty about that,” Dudley said during a conference call.

The unemployment rate is too low now, so we need to hike.

Last year he said consumers should “unlock” housing equity to boost the economy.

“The previous behavior of using housing debt to finance other kinds of consumption seems to have completely disappeared,” and people are leaving the wealth generated by rising home prices “locked up” in their homes.

“A return to a reasonable pattern of home equity extraction would be a positive development for retailers, and would provide a boost to economic growth.”

Dudley is a real gem. He will be missed for the comedy he provides.

Central Bank Soap Opera Hides Financial Globalization


Central Bank Soap Opera Hides Financial Globalization

Stock markets suspect Federal Reserve has interest rate jitters … Hints that the Fed won’t raise interest rates in March are proving to be good news for miners and oil producers’ share prices The Federal Reserve’s William Dudley said further strengthening in the dollar could have ‘significant consequences’ for the health of the US economy. – UK Guardian

Blame it on the dollar!

The Federal Reserve hiked a tiny bit and markets around the world plunged. This is the big story that implies the further loss of Fed credibility.

But there is an even bigger one that we’ll discuss at the end of this article.

Let’s continue with this Guardian analysis. The reporting is along the lines we would expect: We learn that market players have come to the logical conclusion that the Fed is not going to raise interest rates again any time soon.

Or even if they do “raise” them, they’ll have a negligible impact on real rates.

On Thursday, large stocks moved up and reports circulated that Fed officials were continuing to have “second thoughts” about a series of rate hikes. Here, more from the Guardian:

William Dudley, a top Fed official, said on Wednesday that monetary conditions had tightened since December’s quarter-point rise and rate setters would have to take note. Further strengthening in the dollar, added Dudley, could have “significant consequences” for the health of the US economy. Translation: the Fed probably won’t raise in March.

The dollar then sold off yesterday, while commodity prices rose, especially the share prices of miners and oil and gas producers. It was quite a clever statement, helping move the dollar down and the market up.

Even more importantly, it began the process of Fed damage control. The Fed hike had not merely bashed stocks, it had buttressed the dollar.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Something Is Dangerously Wrong at the New York Fed | Armstrong Economics

Something Is Dangerously Wrong at the New York Fed | Armstrong Economics.

FedRes-NYC

In a speech this week, New York Federal Reserve Board President William Dudley addressed pervasive misconduct within the financial industry, refusing to dismissively lay the blame on a few bad apples. “The problems originate from the culture of the firms, and this culture is largely shaped by the firms’ leadership,” Dudley said.

He offered some interesting suggestions on industry compensation practices, but his main message was a warning: If nothing changed, regulators would have to conclude that large
financial institutions are too big to manage, and “that your firms need to be dramatically downsized and simplified so they can be managed effectively.”
Related: Are Regulators About to Let Another Bank Get Too
Big to Fail?

These were notable words from someone in the actual position to undertake a big bank breakup. But Dudley added a little caveat, as typical for such speeches: “What I have to say today reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System.” He would have to say that, because the organization he runs hasn’t practiced what he preached.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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