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Bubble-Watcher, Bob Shiller Warns “We’re Primed To Repeat 2008” As Housing Momentum Slows

The US housing market is anything but healthy and even most bullish of realtors (especially since “it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it”) is admitting that all is not well.

As interest rates have soared, US housing data has collapsed at a pace not seen since 2008…

Construction has slowed, sales have dropped, home prices have decelerated, and sentiment in the sector has deteriorated. The sharp underperformance of homebuilder stocks suggests that investors expect the sector to continue to struggle.

And, as famed housing-watcher Robert Shiller notes, the weakening housing market is similar to the last market high, just before the subprime housing bubble burst a decade ago.

The economist, who predicted the 2007-2008 crisis, told Yahoo Finance that current data shows “a sign of weakness.”

“This is a sign of weakness that we’re starting to see. And it reminds me of 2006 … Or 2005 maybe,”

Housing pivots take more time than those in the stock market, Shiller said, adding that:

“the housing market does have a momentum component and we’re seeing a clipping of momentum at this time.”

The Nobel Laureate explained:

 If the markets go down, it could bring on another recession. The housing market has been an important element of economic activity. If people start to get pessimistic about housing and pull back and don’t want to buy, there will be a drop in construction jobs and that could be a seed for another recession.”

When reminded that 2006 predated the greatest financial crisis in a lifetime, RT notes that Shiller acknowledged that any correction would likely be far less severe.

“The drop in home prices in the financial crisis was the most severe drop in the US market since my data begin in 1890,” the Yale economist said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saxo Q4 Outlook: A New Easing Cycle Based on Ugly Realities

Saxo Q4 Outlook: A New Easing Cycle Based on Ugly Realities

Saxo Bank, the online trading and investment specialist, has today published its Q4 2018 Quarterly Outlook for global markets, including trading ideas covering equities, FX, currencies, commodities, and bonds, as well as a range of macro themes impacting client portfolios.

“We are clearly at a crossroads on many fronts: globalisation, geopolitics and economics”, says Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and CIO, Saxo Bank.

The next quarter will either see dampening of volatility by a less aggressive Fed, more active easing in China, and a compromise on the European Union budget… or a further escalation in tensions between all three areas. I would not bet against the latter into Q4, but I remain confident that we stand only a few months away from the beginning of a new easing cycle based on ugly realities, not the hope expressed by politicians and often market consensus.

”For now, we estimate that the US economy has peaked – the powerful expansionary cocktail of unfinanced tax cuts, repatriation of capital, and fiscal spending ramped up growth in the US, but these one-off effects will peter out as the year ends. Already the US housing market is showing signs of strain as the higher marginal cost of capital (the higher yield on mortgages, more specifically) is starting to have a material impact on future growth.

”As certain as we are about the US having peaked, we are less certain as to how soon China will reach the bottom of its deleveraging process and begin to expand more forcefully again.”

Against this uncertain backdrop, Saxo’s main trading ideas for Q4 include:

Equities – Setting the stage for a comeback in value stocks

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canary in the US Housing Market: Canadian Snowbirds Cash Out

Canary in the US Housing Market: Canadian Snowbirds Cash Out

And sales crash.

Naples, Florida, a wealthy beach town on the Gulf of Mexico, known for its golf courses and high-end shopping, and a favorite hangout for Canadian snowbirds trying to escape their cold winters, has a problem:

Pending home sales in the first quarter plunged 23% from a year ago, according to the Naples Area Board of Realtors. Closed sales plunged 19%. Overall inventory soared 33%. In the two mid-price ranges from $300,000 to $1 million, inventory soared about 42%!

But sellers haven’t gotten the memo yet: even as sales crash and as unsold inventories pile up, the median closing price rose 8%.

That’s how housing busts start out. Buyers lose interest at these prices and evaporate, while sellers go into denial. As prices still rise, volume collapses. When sellers begin accepting the new reality, or when they’re forced to sell, then prices are getting slashed until enough buyers materialize.

A similar scenario began playing out last year in the broader vacation home market. Vacation-home sales in the US plunged 19% in 2015 year-over-year, to an estimated 920,000 units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun blamed a laundry list of things that included “economic uncertainty,” a “presidential election that might lead to restrictions in economic commerce in the future,” if Trump has his way, with potentially worrisome consequences for Canadians, such as “visa restrictions,” and this gem of a reason:

“The turbulence that hit the financial markets the second half of the year likely seized some would-be buyers’ available cash.”

But even as sales volume of vacation homes plunged, the median sales price skyrocketed 28% to $192,000. The report: “Many of the metro areas with the strongest price appreciation in 2015 were in the South — the most popular destination for vacation buyers – and particularly in several Florida markets.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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