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Oil Falls Off the Chart, Crushes Hopes
Oil Falls Off the Chart, Crushes Hopes
Greatest oil glut in history exacts its pound of flesh.
The ugly data for oil – ugly for those who’ve been hoping for, and hyping, a quick rebound to Nirvana – keeps piling up. But for two months, the price of oil was immune to it, trading in a range of around $60 per barrel for the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate.
It stirred up false hopes that lured yield-desperate investors into plowing more money into the industry, which allowed companies to raise many billions in new debt and equity capital so that the permanently cash-flow-negative business model of fracking could soldier on.
But on June 24, reality did start to hit. From that day’s high of $61.50 a barrel, it has been one nasty ride. Currently, WTI trades for $52.67 a barrel, after a 7.5% plunge since Thursday (Friday had only limited trading) to settle at the lowest level since April 13, down 14.4% since June 24. This is what the swoon looks like in 5-hour increments:
OPEC, which is furiously fighting for market share, has no intention of cutting back production. While its limit has been 30 million barrels per day (bpd), reality has been making a mockery of it. In June, production rose 170,000 bpd to 31.28 million bpd, the fourth months in a row of increases, and the highest level since August 2012, according to Platts’ report released today.
While some OPEC members experienced declining production and lost market share in June, Saudi Arabia increased production to 10.35 million bpd and Iraq added a phenomenal 330,000 bpd to produce over 3 million bpd.
Output “seems to be on the way up, and at a time when the market could be looking at a lot more oil from Iran,” explained Margaret McQuaile at Platts.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Truth About U.S. Crude Storage
The Truth About U.S. Crude Storage
Despite the popular narrative that we keep hearing, the U.S is not running out of crude oil storage. Yet there are those who are predicting that oil prices are going to fall to $20 or $30 a barrel, pointing to the crude oil storage numbers and suggesting that we are near maximum capacity and therefore a price collapse is imminent. (Although Goldman Sachs did some backpedaling on their forecast this week).
The argument goes something like this: US running out of room to store oil; price collapse next?
“The U.S. has so much crude that it is running out of places to put it, and that could drive oil and gasoline prices even lower in the coming months. For the past seven weeks, the United States has been producing and importing an average of 1 million more barrels of oil every day than it is consuming. That extra crude is flowing into storage tanks, especially at the country’s main trading hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, pushing U.S. supplies to their highest point in at least 80 years, the Energy Department reported last week.”
At first glance, the argument seems to be pretty straightforward. But let’s dig into the data a bit. Admittedly, if you look at the storage numbers in the nation’s most important oil storage hub (and the price settlement point for West Texas Intermediate on the New York Mercantile Exchange) in Cushing, Oklahoma, it’s easy to form the impression that storage is filling up and an oil price crash is inevitable:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Bullish Oil Wagers Cut in Sign of Growing OPEC Skepticism – Bloomberg
Bullish Oil Wagers Cut in Sign of Growing OPEC Skepticism – Bloomberg.
Speculators are the least bullish on U.S. crude in 20 months as they lose faith in OPEC’s willingness to ease a global supply glut.
Money managers reduced net-longpositions in West Texas Intermediate by 8 percent in the week ended Nov. 4, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Long positions retreated to the least since May 2013 while short holdings rose.
WTI tumbled into a bear market this year as crude supply expanded from the U.S. toLibya and demand sputtered from Europe to China. Saudi Arabia cut its export charges to the U.S. this month, signaling a preference for market share over prices. The kingdom accounts for almost a third of OPEC’s output and the 12-nation group meets in about two weeks to debate supply.
“The market needs some OPEC action and the only thing we get out of the Saudis is the price cut to the U.S.,” Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts, said by phone Nov. 7 “That makes people think ‘Gee, this doesn’t look hopeful.’”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
