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Michael Is Now A Hurricane, Will Continue To Strengthen As It Approaches Florida Panhandle

October 8, 2018

Michael Is Now A Hurricane, Will Continue To Strengthen As It Approaches Florida Panhandle

Update from Reuters:

  • MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING EXPECTED, HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA, RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST: NHC

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A new tropical storm has developed off Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and could become a dangerous Category 2 hurricane with an expected Wednesday landfall on the Gulf Coast in the Florida Panhandle region.

Hurricane watches have been issued for northwest and north central Florida ahead of Tropical Storm Michael. Forecasters say Michael could strengthen into a major hurricane as it approaches Florida’s coastline by midweek with dangerous storm surge flooding, hurricane winds, and heavy rainfall. Per the latest Weather Channel update, Michael is located 90 miles east of Cozumel, Mexico, and is moving northward at 7mph.

Hurricane watches have been issued for the Northwest Gulf Coast from Alabama/Florida border to Suwanee River, Florida. The Weather Channel said this includes Pensacola, Panama City, and Tallahassee.

Tropical storm watches have also been issued from Suwanee River, Florida, to Anna Maria Island, Florida, including Tampa Bay and  from the Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

“Michael will continue to move northward into the central Gulf of Mexico early this week, strengthening as it does so. As it approaches the eastern Gulf Coast, it will encounter a favorable environment for strengthening, and may become a Category 1-2 hurricane prior to landfall in the Florida Panhandle. There is an outside this system strengthens even more than forecast, but confidence on this scenario is low. Regardless, Michael should remain east of significant oil refineries as it approaches landfall early Wednesday, but unsettled weather as far as Louisiana is possible. Winds sustained between 80-100mph are possible along with significant rainfall and flooding along its track through this week,” said Ed Vallee, head meteorologist at Vallee Weather Consulting LLC.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Florence Makes Landfall Near Wilmington; 10-Foot Storm Surge, “Major Structural Damage” Reported

September 14, 2018

Florence Makes Landfall Near Wilmington; 10-Foot Storm Surge, “Major Structural Damage” Reported

Update (7:30 am ET): Florence has officially made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.

Here’s the most recent update from the NHC, which was issued shortly before the eye of the storm came ashore:

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In what will come as a relief to many, Gov. Roy Cooper confirmed that there have yet to be any storm-related deaths.

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“Now it’s time to move from preparation to determination…We have no reported storm-related deaths at this point.” @NC_Governor updates us on the latest rescues in his state

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North Carolina’s Outer Banks were getting absolutely pummeled by wind and rain Friday morning as Hurricane Florence neared the coast, with the eye-wall of the storm (believed to be the area where the wind and rain are most severe) roughly 25 miles away from making landfall, according to the NHC. The storm is expected to make landfall somewhere between Wilmington, NC and Cape Lookout. The storm has been downgraded to Category One as wind speeds slowed slightly, but meteorologists now expect the storm to slow down as it reaches the coast, allowing it even more time to cause severe flooding and wind damage.

Here’s a quick rundown of storm stats courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • Max. sustained winds steady at 90mph
  • Florence moving at 6mph; tropical storm force winds still extend outwards by 195 miles
  • Observation site at Cape Lookout, N.C., reported sustained wind of 72mph and a gust of 90mph
  • Storm surge still forecast to reach as much as 11 feet in parts of North Carolina; isolated totals of 30-40 inches of rain expected in parts of coastal North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Even Rescuers Can’t Stay”: Deadly Rain, Storm Surges Expected Even As Florence Weakens To Cat 2

September 13, 2018

“Even Rescuers Can’t Stay”: Deadly Rain, Storm Surges Expected Even As Florence Weakens To Cat 2

With roughly 24 hours remaining until Hurricane Florence makes landfall in southeastern North Carolina, the storm has reportedly weakened to a Category 2 Hurricane. But meteorologists warn that this isn’t any reason for comfort: Because while the storm’s winds have slowed (from around 140 mph to a maximum of 125 mph), the potential for devastation from what’s expected to be one of the most extreme storms in American history remains acute.

And while the storm is no longer considered a “major” hurricane, CNN reports that its reach has expanded. And with the first wind bands set to batter the state beginning later Thursday, the Associated Press warned.

Despite the downgrade, officials warned that the storm will still have a devastating impact.

“Do you want to get hit with a train or do you want to get hit with a cement truck?” said Jeff Byard, an administrator with the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Analysts are projecting as much as $30 billion in losses due to the storm. In what looks like a best case scenario, Florence eventually could strike as merely a Category 1 hurricane with winds less than 100 mph, but that’s still enough to cause at least $1 billion in damage, Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters said.

According to the NHC, The storm is expected to unleash extreme storm surges, historic flooding, and damaging winds beginning later Thursday, with the southeastern portion of North Carolina set to bear the brunt of Florence’s wrath. Rainfall could range between 20 inches to a staggering 40 inches. Between the rains and the storm surge, the flooding could be “catastrophic,” the Washington Post warned. As the storm moves inland on Friday, a pocket of tropical-storm-force winds nearly 400 miles wide will engulfing much of southern North Carolina and nearly all of South Carolina.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Worst Storm In US History” Florence Set To Break All-Time Records; Forecasters Fear Harvey Flood Redux

September 11, 2018

“Worst Storm In US History” Florence Set To Break All-Time Records; Forecasters Fear Harvey Flood Redux

The latest computer forecasts from Tuesday afternoon have predicted that Hurricane Florence, still a Category 4 yet growing larger and more powerful, may shift and hit somewhere near the border between North and South Carolina as coastal residents flee what may be the most powerful hurricane to hit the state in 64 years, according to Bloomberg.

“Florence is expected to stall and wander near or over the coast for as many as four days, dumping prodigious amounts of rain,” said meteorologist Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, who added “If a significant portion of the storm’s circulation remains over water, as occurred last year with Hurricane Harvey’s stall over Southeast Texas — or even if Florence were to move into the higher terrain of western North Carolina and then stall — the rain may break all-time state records for rainfall from a hurricane or tropical storm.”

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Evolution in @NHC_Atlantic track maps for Hurricane , visualized by the @axios viz team. Updates on the hurricane here: https://www.axios.com/hurricane-florence-north-south-carolina-catastrophic-848f2414-50e1-49b8-9f2d-24ce59b0b78d.html …

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Southeast braces for Hurricane : https://abcn.ws/2N39hJ4

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Nuclear Power Plants At Risk Of Direct Hit By Hurricane Florence

September 11, 2018

Nuclear Power Plants At Risk Of Direct Hit By Hurricane Florence 

North and South Carolina nuclear power plants are in line for a possible direct hit from Hurricane Florence.

According to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), there are twelve operating nuclear power plants in the Carolinas that make electricity by the continuous splitting of uranium atoms (i.e., a nuclear reaction). These plants generally reside near a body of water—a river, lake, estuary or ocean—because they require a constant source of water for cooling purposes. Without cooling water, a nuclear reactor will overheat, leading to core damage, containment failure, and release of harmful radiation into the environment.

“Florence will approach the Carolina coast Thursday night into Friday with winds in excess of 100mph along with flooding rains. This system will approach the Brunswick Nuclear Plant as well as the Duke-Sutton Steam Plant,” said Ed Vallee, a meteorologist at Vallee Wx Consulting.

“Dangerous wind gusts and flooding will be the largest threats to these operations with inland plants being susceptible to inland flooding,” said Vallee.

He tweeted a few weather models Tuesday morning that forecasts rainfall amounts 15-40″ range in some regions along the coast.

One of those models is the ECMWF Total Precipitation, which shows the most torrential rain could be situated around the two nuclear power plants in Wilmington, North Carolina.

Also, there is a significant risk of “a life-threatening storm surge” of up to 20 feet or higher along the coast where the nuclear power plants sit.

“The latest forecast is projecting that Hurricane Florence willstrengthen “to near category 5 strength” before it makes landfall in the Carolinas, and it is being called “a serious threat to lives and property”. It is extremely rare for a hurricane of this intensity to come this far north, and one expert is claiming that Florence “has the potential to be the most destructive hurricane we’ve had in modern history for this region.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“We’ve Never Seen Anything Like This” – Maria Slams Puerto Rico With 9-Foot Storm Surge, 155Mph Winds

September 20, 2017

“We’ve Never Seen Anything Like This” – Maria Slams Puerto Rico With 9-Foot Storm Surge, 155Mph Winds 

Hurricane Maria made landfall near the city of Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, at around 6:15 am Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center, battering the densely populated eastern side of the island with torrential rains and 155 mph gusts as hundreds of thousands of people hunkered down in one of the island’s 500 storm shelters in hopes of riding out the second major hurricane to impact the island within two weeks.

Category 4 Maria slammed the island with winds of 155 mph, just 2 mph short of category 5 status.

The island’s governor has said the hurricane will likely cause “catastrophic” damage to the island’s power grid and infrastructure, much of which has yet to be repaired following Hurricane Irma, which didn’t make landfall in Puerto Rico, but passed close enough to cause $1 billion in damage.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Saba
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello is saying Maria is “potentially most catastrophic hurricane to hit” the U.S. territory in a century. Rossello said up to 25 inches of rain could fall in some areas and he urged anyone in a flood-prone, mudslide-prone or coastal area to leave.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Irma’s 15-Foot Storm Surge Could Demolish 1,000 Miles Of Florida Coast: “It Will Cover Your House”

September 10, 2017

Irma’s 15-Foot Storm Surge Could Demolish 1,000 Miles Of Florida Coast: “It Will Cover Your House”

As we noted on Friday, sea-level analytics firm Climate Central had created a simulation based on the National Hurricane Center’s Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment storm surge and wave modeling that illustrated the devastating flooding in Miami that could result from Hurricane Irma’s storm surge. By overlaying the NHC data with a three-dimensional visual of the city obtained using Google maps, the firm created a realistic visual of what the city would look like under between seven and 11 feet of water.

Luckily, in the last minute the Hurricane shifted westward, but the concerns remain.

Given the expected intensity of the flooding, some readers might assume that the dreaded surge would be the result of tsunami-like waves overwhelming the city’s beaches. But that’s not the case. As the Associated Press explains, the hurricane-force winds draw in water not just form the ocean, but other nearby bodies of water as well. However, forecasters say surges kill more people than the strong winds.

As Florida Gov. Rick Scott warned, the surge “will cover your house.” Already, at least three Floridians have died in the Keys.

“It’s not a wall of water or a tsunami. Simply put, hurricane winds push water toward shore. It can happen quickly and far from a storm’s center, inundating areas that don’t typically flood.

Storm surge doesn’t just come from the ocean. It can come from sounds, bays and lakes, sometimes well inland.”

And with a category four Hurricane like Irma, the water can rise quickly, creating a potentially lethal surprise.

Large hurricanes tend to create greater storm surge over a broader area, and coastal features such as bays can act like funnels and back water up into rivers and canals, said Jamie Rhome, head of the U.S. National Hurricane Center’s storm surge unit.

‘This is going to sneak up on people,’ Rhome said.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Not Just Florida: Georgia And South Carolina Face “Catastrophic Storm Surge”

September 7, 2017

Not Just Florida: Georgia And South Carolina Face “Catastrophic Storm Surge”

As Hurricane Irma looks to be hurdling straight for a direct hit on Southern Florida, meteorologists from Weather Underground are warning that the most devastating impacts of the storm could be felt much further north in towns along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where the storm surge could be a catastrophic 20-28 feet high in certain areas.  To put that in perspective, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 set a record for the largest storm surge ever recorded along the U.S. coast at 27.8 feet.

If Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, as the models currently suggest, the portions of the coast that the eyewall touches will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records and causing many billions of dollars in damage. Even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges. The area of most concern is the northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina, due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights. If we look at wunderground’s storm surge maps for the U.S. East Coast, we see that in a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 – 20’ above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 – 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 – 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Meet “Stunningly Catastrophic” Patricia, The World’s Strongest Storm Ever Is About To Hit Mexico

October 23, 2015

Meet “Stunningly Catastrophic” Patricia, The World’s Strongest Storm Ever Is About To Hit Mexico

“Stunning, historic, mind-boggling, and catastrophic” is how Weather Underground’s Jeff Masters sums up Hurricane Patricia, which intensified to an incredible-strength Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds overnight as it approaches the Mexican coast. As The NY Times reports, The World Meteorological Organization warned that the hurricane’s strength was comparable to that of Typhoon Haiyan, which caused devastation in the Philippines in 2013, and so Mexico has declared a state of emergency for Puerto Vallarta (with officials warning that storm surges could cause waves of up to 39 feet) as she is forecast to hit the coast between 6 and 10pm ET.

As Weather Undergound reports,

At 2:46 am EDT October 23, 2015 an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured a central pressure of 880 mb in Patricia, making it the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere. The aircraft measured surface winds of 200 mph, which are the highest reliably-measured surface winds on record for a tropical cyclone, anywhere on the Earth.The previous strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Linda of 1997, with a pressure of 902 mb (estimated from satellite imagery.)

Patricia the fastest-intensifying Western Hemisphere hurricane on record

Patricia’s central pressure dropped an astonishing 100 mb in 24 hours, making it the fastest-intensifying hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere. Patricia’s pressure at 5 am EDT Thursday, October 22, 2015 was 980 mb, and was 880 mb at 5 am EDT Friday. The previous record was a drop of 97 mb in 24 hours for Hurricane Wilma of 2005 (between 1200 UTC 18 October – 1200 UTC 19 October), according to the official NHC report for the storm.

Patricia’s intensification rate was very close to the WMO-recognized world record for fasting-intensifying tropical cyclone: 100 millibars in just under 24 hours by Super Typhoon Forrest in the Northwest Pacific in 1983.

Patricia’s 200 mph sustained winds make it the 3rd strongest tropical cyclone in world history (by 1-minute averaged wind speed.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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