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My One Prediction for 2023
My One Prediction for 2023 The question that should be on our minds is: how are my household’s buffers holding up? Lists of predictions for the new year are reliably popular. Here’s 10 predictions, there’s 17 predictions, over here we have 23 and a half… let’s strip it all down to one prediction: everyone’s predictions will be […]
The Illusion of Stability, the Inevitability of Collapse
The Illusion of Stability, the Inevitability of Collapse Beneath the illusory stability of rising GDP, the extremes of debt, leverage, stimulus and speculative frenzy required to keep the ‘phantom wealth bubble’ from imploding are all rising parabolically. Imagine being at a party celebrating the vast wealth generated in the last ten months in stocks, cryptocurrencies, […]
Cracks in the supply chain: Is metastable turning into unstable?
Cracks in the supply chain: Is metastable turning into unstable? You who are reading this sentence are metastable systems. So, is the biosphere, and so is all of human society. A metastable system is one that remains stable so long as the inputs necessary to maintain its stability are available. For humans this includes food […]
Victor Gorshkov: a life for the biosphere.
Victor Gorshkov: a life for the biosphere. The basic concept of the biotic regulation of Earth’s temperature according to Gorshkov et al, 2002. The figure shows the potential function U(T) for the global mean surface temperature. Stable states correspond to pits, unstable states to hills. The modern value of +15°C (288 K) approximately corresponds to an unstable […]
The Greatest Threat to World Stability No One Knows About
The Greatest Threat to World Stability No One Knows About The absolute greatest threat to world stability is a threat that oddly receives virtually no publicity. It’s not nuclear arms, it’s not a US stock market crash, it’s not a global bond market crash and it’s not a real estate market crash. The greatest threat […]
The Crash In US Economic Fundamentals Is Accelerating
The Crash In US Economic Fundamentals Is Accelerating When looking at the health of an economic system it is impossible to gauge growth or stability by only taking two or three indicators into account. The problem is, this is exactly what central banks and governments tend to do. In fact, governments and central banks wildly […]
Stability without Growth: Keynes in an Age of Climate Breakdown
Stability without Growth: Keynes in an Age of Climate Breakdown What do Keynesian Democrats think about the movement for post-growth and de-growth economics? Dean Baker, a senior economist at the Center for Economic Policy Research in Washington, DC, has given us some insight into this question. In a recent blog post, republished by Counterpunch, he […]
Paul Volcker’s Fed Criticism Hints at Potential Recession
Paul Volcker’s Fed Criticism Hints at Potential Recession From Birch Gold Group In the 1980’s, amidst out-of-control inflation, former Fed chairman Paul Volcker employed a controversial economic strategy of high interest rates to combat the issue. In that case, the economic band-aid, dubbed “The Volcker Rule”, worked. Volcker is 91 now, and as reported in […]
How Things Fall Apart: Extremes Aren’t Stable
How Things Fall Apart: Extremes Aren’t Stable A funny thing happens on the way to stabilizing things by doing more of what’s failed: the system becomes even more unstable, brittle and fragile. A peculiar faith in pushing extremes to new heights has taken hold in official circles over the past decade: when past extremes push […]
Here’s Why Rip-Roaring Inflation Is Inevitable
Here’s Why Rip-Roaring Inflation Is Inevitable The stability of America’s status quo is illusory. One of the enduring mysteries of the past decade is why inflation has remained tame while the central bank and government have pumped trillions of dollars of newly created money into the economy. Millions of words have been written about this, […]
When Long-Brewing Instability Finally Reaches Crisis
When Long-Brewing Instability Finally Reaches Crisis Keep an eye on the system’s buffers. They look fine until they suddenly collapse. The doom-and-gloomers among us who have been predicting the unraveling of an inherently unstable financial system appear to have been disproved by the reflation of yet another credit-asset bubble. But inherently unstable / imbalanced systems can […]
Cursed to live in interesting times
Cursed to live in interesting times In this article I connect the fall in the growth rate, with its roots in the rising costs of energy extraction and generation, to declining resilience in the economic system. These are in turn related to a more conflict ridden geo-politics. There is an increased vulnerability to shocks which […]
An Unexpected Warning From Goldman Sachs: “Markets Themselves” Will Cause The Next Crash
An Unexpected Warning From Goldman Sachs: “Markets Themselves” Will Cause The Next Crash It all started nearly 9 years ago to the day, when in April 2009 we wrote, “The Incredibly Shrinking Market Liquidity, Or The Upcoming Black Swan Of Black Swans“, in which we explained how as a result of the growing influence of […]
Why Financial Markets Underestimate Risk
Frank Rumpenhorst/Getty Images Why Financial Markets Underestimate Risk Today’s economy is in a “risk-on” period, when investors exchange safe-haven assets like US Treasury Bills for riskier ones, from real estate to carry-trade currencies. But when such behavior assumes that economic conditions are more stable than they are, as seems to be the case today, trouble […]
Why We’re Doomed: Our Economy’s Toxic Inequality
Why We’re Doomed: Our Economy’s Toxic Inequality Anyone who thinks our toxic financial system is stable is delusional. Why are we doomed? Those consuming over-amped “news” feeds may be tempted to answer the culture wars, nuclear war with North Korea or the Trump Presidency. The one guaranteed source of doom is our broken financial system, which is […]
