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Best Laid Schemes

Best Laid Schemes

A Really Neat Bridge

But, Mousie, thou art no thy-lane,
In proving foresight may be vain;
The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,
For promis’d joy!

– Robert Burns, To a Mouse, on Turning Her Up in Her Nest With the Plough (in extract), 1785

Installation of the final cable support pipes on the Gerald Desmond bridge replacement. Here is a drone video of the project. [PT]

Photo by Scott Varley

The grand plans of our local officials in Long Beach have been foiled by the corona-virus bug.  After seven years of construction, at a cost of $1.5 billion, they can’t even hold a proper ribbon-cutting.

The special occasion is the grand opening of the new, yet to be named, Gerald Desmond Bridge replacement.  To prevent the spread of COVID-19, a virtual ceremony is planned for the Friday leading into the Labor Day weekend.

Virtual ceremonies, like professional baseball games with recorded fan noises, are Dumb with a capital D.  But, perhaps, this is the fitting grand opening of an edifice that was planned and constructed for a world that may never arrive.

Certainly, the new bridge structure, which has the highest vertical clearance of any cable-stayed bridge in the US, is a remarkable engineering achievement.  The cable-stayed design also has a signature aesthetic. We have watched it go up over the years; it really is extraordinary.

The two towers rise up to roughly 515 feet above mean sea level, and include 40 cables per tower. The bridge’s linear extent is approximately 8,800 feet.  The cable-stayed span alone is 2,000 feet.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Maersk Crew Hospitalized In First Ever COVID-19 Cases On Board A Container Ship

Maersk Crew Hospitalized In First Ever COVID-19 Cases On Board A Container Ship

Despite one of the the world’s largest shipping lines, Maersk, recently suspending all crew changes aboard its container vessels for up to one month in order to shield crew and operations from the coronavirus and keep them “as normal as possible,” this weekend witnessed the first ever confirmed cases aboard a container ship.

In the past days reports have emerged that an entire crew from the Danish-flagged ship Gjertrud Maers have been tested, with some evacuated and hospitalized in Ningbo, China. A Maersk company spokesman later said in a press statement that “a number of our seafarers” on the ship were suspected for the virus.

“As per our established protocols, the seafarers were isolated on the vessel when symptoms appeared and we are providing medical treatment based on input from our medical advisers,” the Maersk statement said.

File image: Getty/Market Watch

“The vessel was awaiting phasing into our network and currently idle at the quayside in Ningbo, China,” it added. “Extra precaution measures will be taken for crew replacement and sanitations will be implemented.”

Subsequent reports on Monday via state-run China News Service (CNS) indicate at least five of the crew members have tested positive for Covid-19, after a total of 22 foreign crew members were put in isolation aboard the ship while awaiting testing.

Initially seven crew members were reported as having “abnormal physical condition” over a week ago. Maersk did not immediately confirm the crew tested positive, however.

CEO of Maersk Ocean and Logistics, Vincent Clerc, late last week updated global customers and partners as to how the pandemic will impact shipping volume. He confirmed in a statement that necessary drastic actions taken by governments and companies to contain the spread of the virus will result in an economic slowdown. He added that recent interaction and conversations with customers “confirm our expectation of lower volume demand in the coming weeks.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Ground Zero For Trade” – Port Of Long Beach Warns Of Shipping Slump From China

“Ground Zero For Trade” – Port Of Long Beach Warns Of Shipping Slump From China

Investors are grossly underestimating the potential economic impact of Covid-19 as the first signs of China’s supply chain meltdown are now washing ashore on US West Coast ports. 

The Port of Long Beach, the second-largest containerized port in the US, has had two top officials warn in the last several weeks of chilling effects of supply chain disruptions from China. 

Last week, the Deputy Executive Director of Administration and Operations for the Port of Long Beach Noel Hacegaba warned China’s economic paralysis led to the increase of blank sails between China and the US. He said port activity plunged in January and February, with expected weakness to continue through March.  

Hacegaba said the slowdown at Long Beach is starting to hit the local economy around the port. He said it could only be a matter of time before it triggers a broader slowdown in the region, and even maybe in the overall US economy. 

As we’ve noted in many pieces of creaking global supply chains fast emerging in China and spreading outwards, Deutsche Bank’s senior European economist Clemente Delucia last month pointed out in a report titled “The impact of the coronavirus: A supply-chain analysis” that the US is overly exposed to a crashing China economy.

As for the second Long Beach official, Bloomberg quoted Mario Cordero, executive director of the port, who said cargo volumes are expected to slump 9% YoY in February due to declining shipments from China.

Cordero said February’s YoY loss is nearly double of 2019’s decline of 5.4%, which has already resulted in a 50% reduction in labor at the port. He said the East Asia shipping route accounts for 90% of shipments through the port. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

‘Weak Start To The Year’ – Maersk Warns Paralyzed Chinese Factories To Damage Global Economy

‘Weak Start To The Year’ – Maersk Warns Paralyzed Chinese Factories To Damage Global Economy

A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s largest container shipping company, warned Thursday that the Covid-19 outbreak in China, and quickly spreading across the world, would hit earnings this year. 

Maersk said factories in China are currently operating at 50-60% of capacity because the economy has ground to a halt

Maersk reported an unexpected loss in the fourth quarter of $72 million from a profit of $46 million a year earlier. The shipper is a barometer of global trade, said revenues declined 5.6% to $9.67 billion, missing expectations of $9.4 billion, due mostly to a decline in container shipping. 

Shipping volumes in both East to West and North to South routes were lower amid several years of front-loading by corporations ahead of President Trump’s tariffs. Lower demand was seen across Europe, Latin America, the US, and across Asia Pacific countries last quarter. 

The shipper said 2020 guidance is filled with many uncertainties because the deadly virus can still spread outside of China and impact the global economy. 

“As factories in China are closed for longer than usual in connection with the Chinese New Year as a result of the COVID-19, we expect a weak start of the year,” Maersk warned. 

Maersk’s warning comes as China’s economy remains completely paralyzed, expected to slow global trade in goods in the coming months and produce increased trade uncertainties, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said this week. 

“The slow start could be dampened further,” the WTO said in the report, “by global health threats and other recent developments in the first few months of the year, which are not yet accounted for in the barometer’s best-available historical data.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Garbage-In, Garbage-Out – Uncertainty Goes Viral As Baltic Dry Crashes Near All-Time Low

Garbage-In, Garbage-Out – Uncertainty Goes Viral As Baltic Dry Crashes Near All-Time Low

Uncertainty

Let’s revisit the chart from Friday’s T-Report where we examine stocks, bonds, and oil.

Oil Didn’t Buy into the Bounce

At the start of the week, stocks retraced all of their coronavirus losses, but treasuries only retraced a portion and commodities in general (oil specifically), barely budged.

With high levels of uncertainty and stocks near all time highs, the risk/reward seems skewed in favor of being prudent.  There is nothing to stop stocks from making new, even greater highs but as the official death toll of the coronavirus surpasses SARS and much of China is in lockdown while the virus continues to spread globally, it is difficult to be risk-on at the moment.

On a subjective basis, it seems like Wall Street was fixated on coronavirus long before it gained mainstream attention, which might mean we haven’t started to see retail’s reaction to increasing media coverage of coronavirus.

Garbage In, Garbage Out – The Problem with Existing Data

Garbage In, Garbage Out (or GIGO) is an important concept that warns against taking too seriously the results of any calculation or thesis based on low quality data.

As of Sunday morning, the Johns Hopkins dashboard that I’ve been using states that there have been 37,592 confirmed cases with 814 deaths and 2,920 recoveries.

It is tempting to use this data as being highly accurate.  37,592 confirmed cases seems pretty accurate, as opposed to giving a range of 35,000 to 40,000 but do they really have such precise information?  I suspect that the “precision” of the counts implies a much higher degree of certainty around the numbers than there actually is.  Rather than trying to work with the data today, I’ll highlight what I think the biggest risks are to using this data.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran Shuts Off Oil Tanker Tracking System As US Sanctions Start 

The US on Monday (Nov 5) is reimposing disciplinary measures targeting Iran’s oil, shipping, insurance, and banking sectors in what US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called “the toughest sanctions ever placed” against Iran. In response, Tehran has reportedly turned off all oil tanker tracking systems as the sanctions take effect today.

Analysts at TankerTrackers.com, a watchdog that monitors production, refinement, shipping, and trading of crude oil on a global scale, revealed in late October all Iranian tanker vessels turned off their transponders to avoid international tracking for the first time since 2016.

“It’s the first time I’ve seen a blanket black-out. It’s very unique,” TankerTrackers co-founder Samir Madani told Sputnik News.

Madani said with the transponders turned off, the vessels can only be monitored using private satellite imagery. He believes that such a shift to lesser transparency is a ploy by Iran’s leadership to keep the international supply chains open amid US sanctions.

“Iran has around 30 vessels in the Gulf area, so the past 10 days have been very tricky, but it hasn’t slowed us down. We are keeping watch visually,” said co-founder Lisa Ward.

The analysts suggested that going dark could pose significant problems in pinpointing the date when a tanker loaded its crude cargo.

Between 2010 and 2015, when Iran was slapped with international sanctions, its oil industry discovered that it could keep crude on tankers off the Gulf coast to avoid supply chain disruptions.

According to TankerTrackers.com’s research, there are currently six tankers with a total capacity of 11 million barrels moored offshore as floating storage, which allows Iran to continue deliveries.

Iran is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, and the country’s First Vice-President Eshaq Jahangiri revealed in late October that Tehran had been exporting 2.5 million barrels per day over the past few months, said Sputnik.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Upside Of ‘Global Warming’

An interview from the Russian Ministry for Maritime and River Transport published on website PortNews says that Arctic ports along the Northern Sea Route are experiencing a surge in cargo. Up to August 24th of this year, 9.95 million tons of goods went through ports in the region, an 81 percent increase on last year’s 5.5 million.

As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, even though the passage is only feasible for three months of the year, global warming is making it increasingly viable for major shipping companies.

This year, temperatures in the Arctic Circle have been unusually warm, topping 30C on several occasions.

That resulted in Maersk confirming that it was sending a ship with a 3,600 container capacity, the Venta Mersk, over the top of Russia on a test run. The decision has been welcomed in Russia where it’s hoped the Arctic route will compete with the southern route through the Suez Canal and Straits of Malacca. The Northern Sea Route runs from Murmansk near Russia’s border with Norway all the way to the Bering Strait in Alaska with all transiting ships requiring a permit from the Russian authorities.

Even though travel-time can be reduced by two weeks compared to the southern route, costs are generally higher because vessels have to be accompanied by a nuclear-powered icebreaker.

The Venta Maersk left Vladivostock before docking in Pusan, South Korea.

It embarked on its long journeythrough the Arctic and its expected to pass through the Bering Strait at the start of September before finishing the trip in St. Petersburg at the end of the month. The following infographic shows how a general container-ship would travel between Europe and East Asia, using Hamburg and Shanghai as example ports.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World’s Largest Shipping Company Collapses As Trade War Reality Strikes

While US equity markets (well a few mega-cap tech stocks anyway) have remained resilient in the context of rising protectionist fears, theworld’s largest shipping company is seeing its stock eviscerated as investor anxiety over trade wars finds an outlet that makes rational sense.

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S may struggle to make a profit this year after the U.S. and China descended into a trade war that is already showing stress in sentiment surveys.

As Bloomberg reports, Maersk, which is based in Copenhagen, has already lost almost a third of its market value this year as investors gird for more bad news, and it is losing value in line with the collapse in the US Treasury yield curve.

Trade protectionism means less demand, and history suggests the shipping industry will struggle to make the necessary supply cuts. What’s more, Maersk is now more exposed to shipping as the former conglomerate divests its energy business.

Per Hansen, an investment economist at Nordnet in Copenhagen, says Maersk is currently “in the eye of the hurricane” when it comes to the damage that will be inflicted by a trade war.

The company said earlier in the week it will need to temporarily scale back its service between Asia and North Europe as a result.

“It’s highly likely that Maersk’s valuations could sink to its trough valuations in the coming months as investors avoid shipping stocks until more excess capacity is being removed,” said Corrine Png, chief executive officer and founder of Crucial Perspective, a Singapore-based research provider focusing on transport.

So just keep buying Amazon and Netflix, oh and for good measure, keep buying bonds.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Surging Freight Costs Fire Up Inflation Fears

Surging Freight Costs Fire Up Inflation Fears

“Pricing power has erupted…”

The transportation industry, particularly trucking, has benefited from the rise in retail spending in the fourth quarter and in much of 2017. The surge in e-commerce with all the transportation challenges it brings along has been a boon for the industry. Shipments have soared, rates have soared, dollars spent by shippers have soared: companies have been complaining about rising shipping costs and are trying to pass on those costs via higher prices on their goods. But here’s what that looks like from the transportation and trucking industry’s point of view: a view from Cloud Nine.

US shipment volumes by all modes of transportation jumped 12.5% year-over-year in January, according to the Cass Freight Index. The index, which is not seasonally adjusted, hit its highest level for any January since 2007:

Note how the red line (2017) at first timidly and then more aggressively outpaced the black line (2016). In December 2017, shipments had been up 7.2% compared to December 2016. The index normally drops sharply in December with the end of shipping season, but this time the index edged down only a tiny bit.

The index, which is based on $25 billion in annual freight transactions, according to Cass Information Systems, covers all modes of transportation and is focused on consumer packaged goods, food, automotive, chemical, OEM, and heavy equipment — shipped via truck, rail, barge, and air. But it does not cover bulk commodities, such as oil and coal.

The chart below shows the year-over-year percentage changes in the Cass Freight Index for shipments. Note the transportation recession in 2015 and 2016 – and that phenomenal spike in January:

The report warns:

Volume has continued to grow at such a pace that capacity in most modes has become extraordinary tight. Pricing power has erupted in those modes to levels that spark overall inflationary concerns in the broader economy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Tremendous Ripple Effects” – Retailers Demand Bailout After Hanjin Collapse Paralyzes Trade

“Tremendous Ripple Effects” – Retailers Demand Bailout After Hanjin Collapse Paralyzes Trade

When we first reported about the imminent paralysis of an unknown number of global supply chains and a potential shock in worldwide trade as a result of the historic bankruptcy of Hanjing Shipping, one of the world’s largest container shipping companies which handles 8% of Trans-Pacific trade volume for the US market, we concluded that “the global implications from the bankruptcy are unknown: if, as expected, the company’s ships remain “frozen” and inaccessible for weeks if not months, the impact on global supply chains will be devastating, potentially resulting in a cascading waterfall effect, whose impact on global economies could be severe as a result of the worldwide logistics chaos. The good news is that both economists and corporations around the globe, both those impacted and others, will now have yet another excuse on which to blame the “unexpected” slowdown in both profits and economic growth in the third quarter.

However, not even this extreme forecast captured what would happen just 48 hours later, when as the WSJ reported overnight, retailers have gone far beyond simply blaming the Hanjing bankruptcy for their upcoming woes: they are petitioning for a government bailout, or as the WSJ put it, they are “bracing for a blow as they stock up for the crucial holiday sales season, asked the government to step in and help resolve a growing crisis.”

Or, as America’s banks would call it, “get bailed out.” And, in taking a page right out of the 2008 bank bailout, the doom and gloom scenarios emerge:

While the situation is still developing, the prospect of harm is significant and apparent,” Sandra Kennedy, president of the Retail Industry Leaders Association, wrote in a letter to the Department of Commerce and the Federal Maritime Commission. Hanjin’s recent bankruptcy filing “presents an enormous challenge to U.S. shippers,” she said, and “could have a substantial impact on consumers and the economy at large.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Diesel is finite. Trucks are the bedrock of civilization. So where are the battery electric trucks?

Diesel is finite. Trucks are the bedrock of civilization. So where are the battery electric trucks?

Heavy-duty diesel-engine trucks (agricultural, cargo, mining, logging, construction, garbage, cement, 18-wheelers) are the main engines of civilization. Without them, no goods would be delivered, no food planted or harvested, no garbage picked up, no minerals mined, no concrete made, or oil and gas drilled to keep them all rolling. If trucks stopped running, gas stations, grocery stores, factories, pharmacies, and manufacturers would shut down within a week.

Since oilcoal, and natural gas are finite, and biomass doesn’t scale up, clearly someday trucks will need to run on wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal generated electricity.  Yet even batteries for autos aren’t yet cheap, long-lasting, light-weight, or powerful enough for most Americans to replace their current gas-guzzlers with.  And given the distribution of wealth, few Americans may ever be able to afford an electric car, since two-thirds of Americans would have trouble finding even $1,000 for an emergency.

Trucks that matter — that haul 30 tons of goods, pour cement, haul mining ore, and so on can weigh 40 times more than an average car.  So scaling batteries up for heavy-duty trucks (NRC 2014) is impossible now given the state of battery technology. For example, a truck capable of going 621 miles hauling 59,525 pounds, the maximum allowable cargo weight, would need a battery weighing 55,116 pounds, and could only carry about 4,400 pounds of cargo (den Boer et al. 2013). And because a heavy-duty truck battery is so heavy and large, charging takes too long — typically 12 hours or more.

And car battery development is hitting the brick-walls of the laws of physics and thermodynamics, yet truck batteries need to be even more powerful, durable, and long-lasting.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Worse than 2008”: World’s Largest Container Carrier on the Slowdown in Global Trade

“Worse than 2008”: World’s Largest Container Carrier on the Slowdown in Global Trade

“Massive Deterioration,” the CEO called the phenomenon.

“Bellwether for global trade,” that’s how the Financial Times described Maersk Lines, the world’s largest container shipping company. It’s owned by Danish conglomerate AP Møller-Maersk, which also owns, among other divisions, Maersk Oil. The conglomerate reported fourth quarter earnings today. And they were a doozie.

Maersk B shares plunged over 9% to 7,395 Danish kroner, before bouncing off and closing at 7,875, down 3.6% for the day and down a breath-taking 52% from their peak on March 30 last year.

Global economic slowdown — or worse? That’s the question. This is what CEO Nils Andersen told the Financial Times in an interview after the earnings release:

“It is worse than in 2008. The oil price is as low as its lowest point in 2008-09 and has stayed there for a long time and doesn’t look like going up soon. Freight rates are lower. The external conditions are much worse, but we are better prepared.”

“Better prepared,” that is, than the Group had been in 2008.

He called global trade conditions “abnormal.” Containerized imports to Europe, Brazil, Russia, and West Africa all fell – in Europe and Brazil due to various economic reasons; in oil exporters Russia and West Africa due to the collapse in the price of oil.

The earnings report reflected it: in terms of seaborne container freight, the year had started out with some room for optimism and hopes for growth, but in the second half, and particularly in the fourth quarter, those hopes got hammered by an increasingly gloomy reality.

“Massive deterioration,” Andersen called this phenomenon in the interview.

“Acceptable full-year result in challenging times,” is what the Group called the phenomenon in its earnings report.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

“It’s Worse Than 2008”: CEO Of World’s Largest Shipping Company Delivers Dire Assessment Of Global Economy

“It’s Worse Than 2008”: CEO Of World’s Largest Shipping Company Delivers Dire Assessment Of Global Economy

Earlier today, we highlighted the rather abysmal results reported by Maersk, the world’s largest shipping company.

To the extent the conglomerate is a bellwether for global growth and trade, things are looking pretty grim. Maersk Line – the company’s golden goose and the world’s largest container operator – racked up $182 million in red ink last quarter and the outlook for 2016 isn’t pretty either. The company now sees demand for seaborne container transportation rising a meager 1-3% for the year.

“The demand for transportation of goods was significantly lower than expected, especially in the emerging markets as well as the Group’s key Europe trades, where the impact was further accelerated by de-stocking of the high inventory levels,” the company said, in its annual report.

Just how bad have things gotten amid the global deflationary supply glut you ask?

Worse than 2008 according to CEO Nils Andersen who last November warned that “the world’s economy is growing at a slower pace than the International Monetary Fund and other large forecasters are predicting.” Here’s what Andersen told FT:

“It is worse than in 2008. The oil price is as low as its lowest point in 2008-09 and has stayed there for a long time and doesn’t look like going up soon. Freight rates are lower. The external conditions are much worse but we are better prepared.”
As FT goes on to note, “capacity in the container shipping industry increased 8 per cent in 2015” despite the fact that Maersk only sees global trade growing at between 1% and 3% in 2016.

Imports to Brazil, Europe, Russia, and Africa are all falling, Andersen warned. The company’s business, Andersen says, is suffering from a “massive deterioration.” That, you can bet, will likely lead to a “massive deterioration” in Maersk’s shares, which took a substantial hit on Wednesday in the wake of the quarterly and annual results.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

When Trucks Stop Running, So Does Civilization. Energy and the Future of Transportation.

when_trucks_stop_running_book_coverWhen Trucks Stop Running, So Does Civilization. Energy and the Future of Transportation.

Also see: When Trucks Stop Running: Table of Contents, Preface, References

Virtually everything in our homes, everything in our stores, got there on a truck. Prior to that, 90 percent of those items were transported on a ship and/or a train. If trucks, trains, and ships stopped running, our global economy and way of life would stop too.

The impact of peak oil on commercial transportation has been of great interest to me after a 22-year career at American President Lines, where I developed computer systems to keep cargo seamlessly moving around the globe and just-in-time between ships, rail, trucks, and customers.

So I was thrilled when Charles Hall invited me to write a book on energy and transportation for his Springer Energy series, a book that has just been published: When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation.

Ships, trucks, and trains are the backbone of civilization, hauling the goods that fulfill our every need and desire. Their powerful, highly-efficient diesel combustion engines are exquisitely fine-tuned to burn petroleum-based diesel fuel. These engines and the fuels that fire them have been among the most transformative yet disruptive technologies on the planet. This is a dependency we take for granted.

Since oil reserves are finite, one day supplies will be diminished to where the cost of moving freight and goods with our present oil-fueled fleet will not pencil out. We have an oil glut in 2016 and a corresponding lack of urgency. Yet, inevitably the day will come when oil supplies decline. What will we do? What are our options? That is the sobering reality my book explores.

Consider just how dependent we are on abundant and affordable oil, which fuels commercial transportation: Grocery stores, service stations, hospitals, pharmacies, restaurants, construction sites, manufacturers, and many other businesses receive several deliveries a day.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Baltic Dry Shipping Index Just Collapsed To An All-Time Record Low

The Baltic Dry Shipping Index Just Collapsed To An All-Time Record Low

Globe Matrix - Public DomainI was absolutely stunned to learn that the Baltic Dry Shipping Index had plummeted to a new all-time record low of 504 at one point on Thursday.  I have written a number of articles lately about the dramatic slowdown in global trade, but I didn’t realize that things had gotten quite this bad already.  Not even during the darkest moments of the last financial crisis did the Baltic Dry Shipping Index drop this low.  Something doesn’t seem to be adding up, because the mainstream media keeps telling us that the global economy is doing just fine.  In fact, the Federal Reserve is so confident in our “economic recovery” that they are getting ready to raise interest rates.  Of course the truth is that there is no “economic recovery” on the horizon.  In fact, as I wrote about yesterday, there are signs all around us that are indicating that we are heading directly into another major economic crisis.  This staggering decline of the Baltic Dry Shipping Index is just another confirmation of what is directly ahead of us.

Overall, the Baltic Dry Index is down more than 60 percent over the past 12 months.  Global demand for shipping is absolutely collapsing, and yet very few “experts” seem alarmed by this.  If you are not familiar with the Baltic Dry Shipping Index, the following is a pretty good definition from Investopedia

A shipping and trade index created by the London-based Baltic Exchange that measures changes in the cost to transport raw materials such as metals, grains and fossil fuels by sea. The Baltic Exchange directly contacts shipping brokers to assess price levels for a given route, product to transport and time to delivery (speed).

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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