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Why It Matters If Fracking Companies Are Overestimating Their ‘Proved’ Oil and Gas Reserves

Why It Matters If Fracking Companies Are Overestimating Their ‘Proved’ Oil and Gas Reserves

Back in 2011, The New York Times first raised concerns about the reliability of America’s proved shale gas reserves. Proved reserves are the estimates of supplies of oil and gas that drillers tell investors they will be able to tap. The Times suggested that a recent Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rule change allowed drillers to potentially overbook their “proved” reserves of natural gas from shale formations, which horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) were rapidly opening up.

“Welcome back to Alice in Wonderland,” energy analyst John E. Olson told The Times, commenting on the reliability of these reserves after the rule change. Olson, a former Merril Lynch analyst, is best known for seeing the coming Enron scandal 10 years before the infamous energy company imploded in 2000.

Today, those same rules have allowed shale drillers to boost their reserves of oil, as well as natural gas. As a result, these “proved” reserves, which investors and pipeline companies are banking on, could potentially be much less proven than they appear.

And the unprecented degree to which this is happening in the shale industry casts a shadow of doubt on the purportedly bright future of America’s booming oil and gas industry.

Rising ‘Proved Undeveloped’ Reserves

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Are Fossil Fuel Companies Telling Investors Enough About the Risks of Climate Change?

Are Fossil Fuel Companies Telling Investors Enough About the Risks of Climate Change?

The Securities and Exchange Commission, for example, was probing how ExxonMobil discloses the impact of that risk on the value of its reserves. And disclosure advocates have been pressing the agency to take more decisive action.

Now that Republicans control Congress and the White House, will the SEC reverse course? And should it?

The Trump administration’s apparent skepticism regarding climate change may portend such a change in direction. And Congress’ decision to roll back transparency rules for U.S. energy companies in the Dodd-Frank Act suggests transparency policy more broadly is being loosened.

The terms of this debate, however, remain premised on the notion that investors don’t have enough information to accurately assess the impact of climate change on company value. A growing body of academic research, including our own, suggests they already do and that a compromise path that improves the terms and conditions for voluntary disclosure might be optimal.

“Stranded” Assets

Such a change in direction would be good news for ExxonMobil in its fight with the SEC over climate change disclosure.

Last year, ExxonMobil announced that 4.6 billion barrels of oil and gas assets — 20 percent of its current inventory of future prospects — may be too expensive to tap. That would be the largest asset write-down in its history. So far, the company has written down US$2 billion in expensive, above-market cost natural gas assets. More write-downs — this time possibly oil sands — may be forthcoming.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

First Post-Brexit Bailout Looms As Bank Of England Mulls UK Property Fund ‘Measures’

First Post-Brexit Bailout Looms As Bank Of England Mulls UK Property Fund ‘Measures’

Who could have seen that coming? While many have questioned the “suitability of daily-traded, open-ended property funds that are giving investors access to an illiquid asset,” all the time the price is rising, no one wants to rock the boat. However, now that Brexit has rocked the boat, spoiling the party for UK property investors and asset managers alike, it’s time for Carney to ride to the tax-payer-funded bailout rescue to ensure Bear Stearns 2.0 does not become Lehman 2.0…

Following the gating – or forced haircuts – of eight large UK property investment funds this week, fears have grown rapildy of the risk of contagion, which, as The FT reports, is much greater than first feared, with detailed analysis showing that a wide pool of funds have been caught up in the gates imposed on investors withdrawing cash.

The worry is that this will trigger systemic problems for the marketplace, which is already reeling from the UK’s decision last month to end its membership of the EU.

A prominent UK fund manager, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “When you start getting daily trading funds-of-funds investing in daily trading funds that are invested in illiquid assets, that seems to be layering up potential liquidity risks. “[Investors need to] consider the impact on funds that are caught with material investments in the gated property funds.”

Three multi-asset funds run by Henderson also have around 3.5 per cent of their assets in the company’s own suspended property fund, while Aviva Investors’ multi-asset product has a 4 per cent stake in its gated property fund.

Many other multi-asset funds — one of the fastest-selling investment strategies of the past 12 months — run by rival investment managers have also been caught out by the property fund suspensions.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Desperate China Begged Fed For “Plunge Protection Playbook” As Its Market Crashed

A Desperate China Begged Fed For “Plunge Protection Playbook” As Its Market Crashed

Last June, China’s stock market miracle ended in tears.

The SHCOMP’s inexorable, parabolic ascent was to a large degree facilitated by an explosion of margin debt, the likes of which could not be found in any other major market across the globe. For instance, by the end of June, the outstanding balance of margin transactions as a percentage of the SHCOMP’s free float market cap was nearly 14% compared to just 5.5% for the S&P and less than 1% for the TOPIX.

A dramatic unwind in the half dozen backdoor margin lending channels that had funneled an additional CNY1.5 trillion into equities brought the party to a thunderous end and by late July, the market was off by more than 30% from its peak.

Chinese officials had already begun to panic by mid-month and then, on the 27th, the bottom fell out.

A harrowing bout of late day selling led the SHCOMP to post its worst one-day drop since February of 2007 and its second worst single session decline in history as the market collapsed by 8.5%.

More than two-thirds of stocks in the index traded limit down that day.

At that point, China was out of ideas. It had been nearly three weeks since Beijing announced it would inject capital into China Securities Finance Corp., effectively giving the PBoC a mandate to not only underwrite brokers’ margin lending businesses but in fact to buy A-shares directly, and nothing seemed to be working to arrest the slide.

Indeed, starting on June 27 (by which time the Shenzhen had fallen by more than 20% from its peak) the PBoC unleashed an eye watering array of measures that encompassed everything from an RRR cut to the easing of regulations to state mandated investments by pension funds to verbal interventions in the form of threats against “malicious” shorts. Nothing was working.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

BlackRock Suspends ETF Issuance Due To “Surging Demand For Gold”

BlackRock Suspends ETF Issuance Due To “Surging Demand For Gold”

BlackRock’s Gold ETF (IAU) has seen fund inflows every day in 2016 (no outflows at all) and with the stock trading above its NAV for most of the year, the world’s largest asset manager has made a significant decision:

  • *BLACKROCK SAYS ISSUANCE OF GOLD TRUST SHARES SUSPENDED
  •  *BLACKROCK SAYS SUSPENSION DUE TO DEMAND FOR GOLD

BlackRock Statement:

Issuance of New IAU (Gold Trust) Shares Temporarily Suspended; Existing Shares to Trade Normally for Retail and Institutional Investors on NYSE Arca and Other Venues

Suspension results from surging demand for gold, which requires registration of new shares

iShares Delaware Trust Sponsor LLC, in its capacity as the sponsor of iShares Gold Trust (IAU), has temporarily suspended the creation of new shares of IAU until additional shares are registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

This suspension does not affect the ability of retail and institutional investors to trade on stock exchanges. Retail and institutional investors will continue to be able to buy and sell shares in IAU.

IAU holds gold as a physical asset. IAU is an exchange-traded commodity (ETC), which therefore is not eligible for registration as an investment company under the ’40 Act. IAU may only be registered under the ’33 Act as a grantor trust. Under the ’33 Act, subscriptions for new shares in excess of those registered requires additional filings with the SEC.

Nearly all other U.S. iShares are exchange-traded funds (ETFs), registered as investment companies under the ’40 Act. The ’40 Act provides for the continuous offering of shares and does not require registration of additional shares as the fund grows due to investor demand in connection to new subscriptions.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

In Latest Market-Rigging Scandal, ITG Busted For Frontrunning Clients In Its Dark Pool

In Latest Market-Rigging Scandal, ITG Busted For Frontrunning Clients In Its Dark Pool

Last year, first in the aftermath of NYAG’s lawsuit against Barclays followed promptly by Michael Lewis’ “Flash Boys” (which over a year later is still a better seller than “GS Elevator’s” attempt to be this generation’s Tucker Max) exposing High Frequency Trading for being nothing more than a sophisticated gimmick enabling market rigging and bulk order frontrunning while pretending to “provide liquidity”, the revulsion against HFTs hit a fever pitch that forced Virtu to postpone its IPO.

Several months later, because the market kept going higher, people quickly forgot why they were angry at a bunch of vacuum tubes, and Virtu not only re-IPOed (adding another year without a single trading day loss to its roster) but it was taken public by that “humanitarian” protagonist of Flash Boys, Goldman Sachs itself (which was so aghast at the scourge that is HFT it almost, almost, ended its own dark pool and HFT ambitions… before it decided to double down on HFT).

However, since the market is once again on the verge of a terminal liquidity seizure with its associated side-effects (see China for details), the authorities needed to remind the “market” just who the scapegoat will be when the next crash finally does come. Which is why earlier today in an unexpected “preliminary second quarter guidance” release, ITG, owner of the Posit dark pool, was just busted with a $22.6 million potential SEC settlement for what appears to have been blatant frontrunning of company clients in its own prop trading pod.

From the release:

During the second quarter of 2015, ITG commenced settlement discussions with the Staff of the Division of Enforcement of the SEC (the “SEC Enforcement Division”) in connection with the SEC’s investigation into a proprietary trading pilot operated within ITG’s AlterNet Securities, Inc. (“AlterNet”) subsidiary for sixteen months in 2010 through mid-2011.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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