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Draining America First—The Beginning of the End for Shale Gas

January 24, 2024

Draining America First—The Beginning of the End for Shale Gas

Energy Aware II

The United States is the biggest producer of natural gas in the world and recently became the largest exporter of LNG. The industry is scrambling to build LNG (liquefied natural gas) export terminals as fast as permitting and funding will allow.

This couldn’t come at a worse time. Instead of having an almost infinite amount of natural gas as many believe, we may be witnessing hard limits to that supply.

Figure 1 shows that shale gas plays have reached an apparent peak and may be starting to decline. It’s not a good sign although some of this may be related to seasonal effects or regulatory matters. At the very least, the rate of production growth is slowing.

Shale gas plays have begun to decline as U.S. becomes biggest world LNG exporter.
Figure 1. Drain America First. Shale gas plays have begun to decline as U.S. becomes biggest world LNG exporter. Source: EIA, Enverus & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Any decrease in the growth of shale gas could become an acute problem because it accounts for 82% of U.S. dry gas production (Figure 2).

Shale gas accounts for 82% of U.S. dry gas production.
Figure 2. Shale gas accounts for 82% of U.S. dry gas production. Source: EIA, Enverus & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

I am frankly less concerned about whether or not shale gas production is currently in decline as I am about what will happen to supply in five or ten years.

That concern is based on plans for increased LNG and pipeline exports. Net LNG exports are expected to increase +6.4 bcf/d by 2030 & another +7.1 bcf/d by 2035 (Figure 3). Total net exports are projected to increase +15 bcf/d by 2035 from 13 to 29 bcf/d.

Total net exports to increase +15 bcf/d by 2035 from 13 to 29 bcf/d.
Figure 3. Net LNG exports expected to increase +6.4 bcf/d by 2030 & another +7.1 bcf/d by 2035. Total net exports to increase +15 bcf/d by 2035 from 13 to 29 bcf/d. Source: EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.                                     

Let’s take a quick look at production from the three biggest pure shale gas plays (Figure 4).

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Climate Crisis Means the Ruling Class has Failed. Can the Working Class Inherit the Earth?

August 11, 2019

Climate Crisis Means the Ruling Class has Failed. Can the Working Class Inherit the Earth?

Photograph by Nathaniel St. Clair

The climate crisis is proof positive that the ruling class is an utter failure — but it will not fall on its own. Can the working class rise to the challenge? It sure will help if we understand that our class interests are not merely the economic needs of working people — no matter how important that is — but the universal interests of a healthy planet for all the people. Let’s start acting like it.

The corporate solutions to the climate crisis must dodge the causes of the crisis. The ruling class uses deception and secrecy to limit public debate. When the facts become obvious and overwhelming corporate politicians simply refuse to debate it. Gag rules are back in fashion. When the people demand a Green New Deal the same politicians water it down and disarm it.

Power For Profit is Still the Prime Directive

Meanwhile, the Corporate State pursues the only agenda it has ever known: power and profit. If we accept corporate empire as normal, natural or eternal there is nothing left but better management, technical fixes, adaptation, and illusions of endless growth.

Since corporate capitalism is a “grow or die” system, it cannot consider limits even at a time when planetary limits are on display for all to see and verified by our best science. For example, there is no place in corporate plans for the conservation of energy despite the fact that energy not used is the truest form of clean energy. Instead of keeping in the ground, it’s always more and more.

Former Trump Secretary of State and former Exxon-Mobile CEO, Rex Tillerson repeats the managerial view.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is it possible for everyone to live a good life within our planet’s limits?

February 8, 2018

Is it possible for everyone to live a good life within our planet’s limits?

Imagine a country that met the basic needs of its citizens – one where everyone could expect to live a long, healthy, happy and prosperous life. Now imagine that same country was able to do this while using natural resources at a level that would be sustainable even if every other country in the world did the same.

Such a country does not exist. Nowhere in the world even comes close. In fact, if everyone on Earth were to lead a good life within our planet’s sustainability limits, the level of resources used to meet basic needs would have to be reduced by a factor of two to six times.

These are the sobering findings of research that my colleagues and I have carried out, recently published in the journal Nature Sustainability. In our work, we quantified the national resource use associated with meeting basic needs for a large number of countries, and compared this to what is globally sustainable. We analysed the relationships between seven indicators of national environmental pressure (relative to environmental limits) and 11 indicators of social performance (relative to the requirements for a good life) for over 150 countries.

The thresholds we chose to represent a “good life” are far from extravagant – a life satisfaction rating of 6.5 out of 10, living 65 years in good health, the elimination of poverty below the US$1.90 a day line, and so on.

Nevertheless, we found that the universal achievement of these goals could push humanity past multiple environmental limits. CO₂ emissions are the toughest limit to stay within, while fresh water use is the easiest (ignoring issues of local water scarcity).

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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