A global energy demand forecast is presented to 2100 based on historic growth of per capita energy consumption, 1965-2015 and on UN low and medium population growth forecasts. The low forecast sees energy demand growing from 13.15 billion tonnes oil equivalent (toe) per annum in 2015 to 19.16 billion toe in 2100. The medium population forecast sees 29.5 billion toe in 2100, that is a rise of 124% over 2015. This is an interactive post where commenters are invited to suggest where all this additional energy may come from.
[I have been and am still incredibly busy. For the last three weeks I have been working on a significant consulting job. No comments please on this subject. This short post is based on some simple modelling work I did last May – and no I have not been offered a job as a male model. Those offers dried up about 20 years ago 🙂 ]
There are two main variables that control global energy consumption (three counting price), which are the total number of people in the World and the average per capita energy each person consumes. While per capita energy consumption is falling throughout much of the OECD, it is rising everywhere else as countries like China, India and Brazil strive to become like “us”.
Figure 1 shows how per capita energy consumption has grown from 1965 to 2015. Total global primary energy consumption is taken from the 2016 BP statistical review of world energy. Population data are from the United Nations World population prospects 2017.
Figure 1 The growing trend in global per capita energy consumption based on BP and UN data.
The trend in Figure 1 is clearly not linear. The bumps reflect changes in oil price, global recessions and geopolitical upheavals that are not always negative. The sharp rise post-2000 is partly down to the mega-growth spurt in China. In 1965 the global average per capita energy consumption was 1.12 tonnes oil equivalent (toe).
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