Home » Posts tagged 'oil surplus'

Tag Archives: oil surplus

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

Oil Rallies On Report OPEC+ Will Do “Whatever It Takes”, May Cut By 1.4MM Barrels

November 14, 2018

Oil Rallies On Report OPEC+ Will Do “Whatever It Takes”, May Cut By 1.4MM Barrels

One day after Saudi Arabia revealed that it had not complied with its production quota in October for the first time since OPEC’s November 2016 meeting in Vienna, Reuters sent oil prices into the green with a report that OPEC and its partners were discussing a proposal to cut oil output by up to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2019 to avoid a surplus that could tank prices.

Opec

Unnerved by oil’s record 12-day losing streak, OPEC and OPEC+ are again talking about cutting production just months after Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to pump more. The group is set to meet on Dec. 6 to agree on its policy for 2019.

West Texas Intermediate futures rose as much as 1.4% to $56.49/bbl on New York Mercantile Exchange, erasing an earlier 1% decline and briefly sending prices into the green – though the rally soon faded and prices slumped back into the red. If oil settles higher on the day, it would break what has been a record losing streak for oil prices.

OPEC

Still, the gains didn’t hold, as the report noted that least one OPEC member (Iran) still needed to be convinced to support the plan.

A supply cut of up to 1.4 million bpd was one of the options discussed by energy ministers from Saudi Arabia, non-OPEC Russia and other nations at a meeting in Abu Dhabi on Sunday, the sources said.

“I believe a cut of 1.4 million bpd is more reasonable than above it or below it,” one of the sources, who declined to be identified by name as the talks are confidential, said.

OPEC member Iran, as well as Russia, would need to be brought on board for the new plan, the sources added. One source said Iran does not want to have a production target in a new agreement as it is facing lower exports due to U.S. sanctions.

In comments that arrived after the report, OPEC chief Mohammed Barkindo revealed that he now believes the cartel is a central bank.

*OPEC CHIEF: OPEC+ WILL DO ‘WHATEVER IT TAKES’ FOR MARKET BALANCE

Saudis Scramble To Stop Oil Price Slide

November 13, 2018

Saudis Scramble To Stop Oil Price Slide

oil infra

Saudi Arabia is moving quickly to halt the slide in oil prices, telegraphing a production cut intended to erase some of the re-emerging supply surplus.

Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday that the kingdom would slash oil exports by 500,000 bpd in December, a move that would go a long way to reversing the 1 million-barrel-per-day increase in output agreed to by OPEC+ in June.

It was only a few weeks ago that al-Falih was trying to reassure the market that Saudi Arabia had enough spare capacity in the event of an outage; now he is rushing to try to stop the slide in prices but paring back production.

The production cut would come just after crude oil officially entered bear market territory, falling 20 percent from its October peak.

But it is unclear at this point if the rest of the OPEC+ coalition, including Russia, will join the Saudis. The OPEC-Non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) met over the weekend in Abu Dhabi to consider options for 2019. The group was rumored to be considering a collective production cut, although the meeting ended on Sunday with no firm commitments.

Still, in an official statement, the group seemed open to the idea. The JMMC “noted that 2019 prospects point to higher supply growth than global requirements,” which is another way of saying that they are nervous about a supply glut. Also, the committee stated that a global economic downturn could depress demand, and “could lead to widening gap between supply and demand.” These conditions “may require new strategies to balance the market.” It would seem that the OPEC+ coalition is laying the groundwork for a production cut. The official ministerial meeting in Vienna in early December will reveal much more about the group’s plans heading into 2019.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Double-Edged Sword Of High Oil Prices

May 20, 2018

The Double-Edged Sword Of High Oil Prices

barrel

Rising oil prices were seen last year as a positive result of growing global growth and recovery, but a combination of factors is turning this benign view into a more sinister scenario.

On the supply side, the combined efforts of OPEC and Russia, leaky as the agreement has been, have managed to reduce the global oil surplus in just 18 months to bring the market largely into balance. As a result, oil prices have gradually risen during the period. It’s a trend most observers have been sanguine about, believing the U.S.’s tight oil producers, encouraged by rising prices, will increase output to ensure ample supply and keep a lid on oil prices getting ahead of themselves.

(Click to enlarge)

But that benign view had not taken account of President Trump’s decision to rip up the Iran nuclear deal and, as a result, to reinstate sanctions, a move that will take place in two phases to give firms time to adjust.

According to The Telegraph, this will be done in two stages, on Aug. 6 and Nov. 4, allowing 90- and 180-day wind-down periods. In addition, the Treasury is to re-list Iranian individuals and entities in the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list, thus revoking special licenses and exceptions previously granted to individuals and companies to deal with Iran, making it all but impossible for firms with a U.S. presence or needing dollar clearing to deal with them.

Lastly, Iran’s crude oil sales will be limited under the National Defense Authorization Act of 2012, as the U.S. departments of State, Energy and Treasury will allow ongoing but reduced purchases of oil from Iran, termed “significant reduction exceptions” on a country-by-country basis if they demonstrate a commitment to substantially decrease oil purchases (usually at least a 20 percent reduction).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Could An Oil Surplus Be A Sign Of Things To Come?

January 15, 2018

Could An Oil Surplus Be A Sign Of Things To Come?

Oil

Today, we have a surplus of oil, which we are trying to use up. That has never happened before, or did it? Well, actually, it did, back around 1930. As most of us remember, that was not a pleasant time. It was during the Great Depression.

(Click to enlarge)

Figure 1. U.S. ending stocks of crude oil, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Amounts will include crude oil in pipelines and in “tank farms,” awaiting processing. Businesses normally do not hold more crude oil than they need in the immediate future, because holding this excess inventory has a cost involved. Figure produced by EIA. Amounts through early 2016.

A surplus of a major energy commodity is a sign of economic illness; the economy is not balancing itself correctly. Energy supplies are available for use, but the economy is not adequately utilizing them. It is a sign that something is seriously wrong in the economy–perhaps too much wage disparity.

(Click to enlarge)

Figure 2. U. S. Income Shares of Top 10 percent and Top 1 percent, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.

If wages are relatively equal, it is possible for even the poorest citizens of the economy to be able to buy necessary goods and services. Things like food, homes, and transportation become affordable by all. It is easy for “Demand” and “Supply” to balance out, because a very large share of the population has wages that are adequate to buy the goods and services created by the economy.

It is when we have too much wage disparity that we have gluts of oil and food supplies. Food gluts happened in the 1930s and are happening again now. We lose sight of the extent to which the economy can actually absorb rising quantities of commodities of many types, if they are inexpensive, compared to wages.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress